Core Viewpoint - Charoen Pokphand Enterprises International (03839) expects to achieve an unaudited net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately $23.5 million for the nine months ending September 30, 2025, a significant increase compared to $4.3 million for the same period in 2024, driven by substantial revenue growth from successful implementation of key strategies targeting large clients [1] Financial Performance - The expected net profit for the nine months ending September 30, 2025, is approximately $23.5 million, up from $4.3 million for the nine months ending September 30, 2024 [1] - The anticipated unaudited quarterly net profit for the three months ending September 30, 2025, is expected to decrease to about $6.5 million, down from $9.3 million for the three months ending June 30, 2025 [1] Market Conditions - The growth in profit is primarily attributed to a significant increase in revenue, reflecting the successful implementation of strategies aimed at developing large client sales [1] - However, there is a noted decrease in demand for the company's veterinary pharmaceutical products due to a slowdown in China's livestock industry, which began to impact demand from the third quarter of 2025 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant inflow of capital into the livestock ETF (159865), with a total inflow of 694 million shares and a net inflow of 534 million shares, indicating strong investor interest in livestock assets [1] - The "anti-involution" measures have been intensified since May, positively impacting pig prices for the upcoming year. Various government bodies, including the Ministry of Agriculture and the National Development and Reform Commission, have held multiple meetings to focus on controlling production capacity, reducing weight, and limiting breeding [1] - The implementation of these policies is expected to accelerate the reduction of industry capacity in the fourth quarter, with a potential upward trend in pig prices anticipated in the second half of next year [1] Group 2 - The livestock ETF (159865) tracks the CSI Livestock Index (930707), which selects listed companies involved in livestock farming and feed processing from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, reflecting the overall performance of securities related to the livestock industry [1] - The CSI Livestock Index covers various sub-sectors, including livestock farming, feed, and animal health, demonstrating strong industry representation [1]

Group 1 - The agricultural economy is showing a stable and improving trend under the strong leadership of the central government, with a good outlook for grain production in 2025 [1] - Summer grain production faced challenges but achieved a total output of 299.48 billion jin, slightly down by 0.1% year-on-year, while early rice production increased by 1.2% to 57.03 billion jin [1] - The autumn grain production is stable, supported by government policies that encourage farmers, with an increase in sowing area and favorable weather conditions [1] Group 2 - Livestock production is steadily developing, with total meat production reaching 73.12 million tons, an increase of 3.8% year-on-year [2] - The number of pigs slaughtered increased by 1.8% to 52.992 million heads, with pork production rising by 3.0% to 43.68 million tons [2] - Poultry production also saw growth, with poultry meat production increasing by 7.2% to 20.53 million tons and egg production slightly up by 0.2% to 26.46 million tons [2] Group 3 - The supply of agricultural products is abundant, with producer prices decreasing by 3.6% year-on-year [3] - Prices for various agricultural products have varied, with grain prices down by 3.3%, while fruits saw a slight increase of 1.1% [3] - Specific declines were noted in prices for pigs (down 6.9%) and various grains, while live cattle prices showed a slight recovery in the second and third quarters [3]

Group 1 - The article discusses the integration of agriculture, culture, and tourism in Guangdong, highlighting various local initiatives aimed at rural revitalization and economic development [3][10][12] - Specific regions like Shaoguan and Meizhou are focusing on ecological product value transformation and the promotion of specialty agricultural brands, respectively [6][8] - The Guangdong provincial government aims to enhance the quality of the forestry industry, targeting a total output value of 941.6 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.21% [13][14][16] Group 2 - The use of AI technology in livestock farming is transforming the pig farming industry in Guangxi, reducing costs by 15% and increasing production efficiency [19][27][28] - In Conghua, experts are providing targeted technical support to enhance the quality and yield of citrus crops, which is crucial during the fruit swelling period [30][35] - The article highlights a successful cooperative in Maoming that has improved local farmers' incomes through innovative agricultural practices [37][41]

Core Insights - The overall fixed asset investment in China for the first three quarters of the year reached 371.535 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.5%, primarily influenced by the real estate sector. Excluding real estate, the investment grew by 3.0% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Industrial Investment - Industrial investment demonstrated a robust growth of 6.4% year-on-year, contributing 2.1 percentage points to the overall investment growth [1] - Mining investment increased by 3.7%, with a 0.7 percentage point acceleration compared to the period from January to August [1] - Manufacturing investment rose by 4.0%, contributing 1.0 percentage point to total investment growth [1] - Investment in electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply surged by 15.3%, adding 1.1 percentage points to overall investment growth [1] Group 2: Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment grew by 1.1% year-on-year, contributing 0.2 percentage points to total investment growth [2] - Private investment in infrastructure increased by 7.0%, accounting for 20.0% of total infrastructure investment, up by 1.1 percentage points from the previous year [2] - Notable growth was observed in internet and related services investment at 20.6%, water transport investment at 12.8%, and railway transport investment at 4.2% [2] Group 3: Equipment Investment - Equipment and tool purchase investment maintained a growth rate above 10%, with a year-on-year increase of 14.0%, contributing 2.0 percentage points to overall investment growth [3] - This segment accounted for 16.6% of total investment, an increase of 2.2 percentage points compared to the previous year [3] Group 4: High-Tech Service Investment - Investment in high-tech services grew by 6.1% year-on-year, representing 5.3% of total service investment, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous year [4] Group 5: Agricultural Investment - Investment in the primary industry rose by 4.6% year-on-year, with forestry investment soaring by 40.0% [5] - Fisheries investment increased by 12.9%, and livestock investment grew by 4.3% [5] - Related sectors such as agricultural and sideline food processing investment grew by 14.3%, and food manufacturing investment increased by 10.8% [5]

另从需求端来看，气候与消费场景变化带动需求结构调整。进入10月，全国气温从北到南逐步下行，餐 饮消费等需求回升，对大猪采购量增加，进一步强化肥猪价格抗跌属性。季节因素带来的需求增量，使 大猪在消费旺季前形成明显价格优势，并且散户也对第四季度肥标差拉开以及大猪价格偏强有较好预 期，目前惜售心态强烈，对大猪价格也带来一定支撑。 基于上述基本面变化，展望后期标肥价差走势来看，11-12月，随着气温逐步下降，利好大猪需求，同 时家庭腌腊活动的逐步开展，进一步支撑大猪需求，给大猪价格带来提振。10月中旬补栏二育的猪源或 在11-12月集中出栏，并且上半年补栏的部分猪源也可能在这个时间段出栏，因此大猪供应量或超市场 预期，因此卓创资讯预计11-12月全国肥标仍有拉开空间但空间有限。 （作者：范晴晴，卓创资讯分析师） 受大猪存栏占比降低和需求转向等因素影响，国庆假期后，全国肥标价差持续拉开。展望11-12月，虽 大猪需求仍有支撑，但后续供应量或超预期，肥标价差进一步扩大空间将受限。 国庆节假期结束后，全国肥标价差呈现逐步拉开走势。据卓创资讯统计，截止到10月20日全国肥标差为 0.65元／公斤，环比9月30日增加0.27元 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that second - fattening of pigs is actively entering the market, and provides detailed fundamental data, market information, and trend strength analysis of the pig industry [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The spot price in Henan is 11,480 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan/ton; in Sichuan, it is 11,050 yuan/ton with a 150 yuan/ton increase; in Guangdong, it is 11,460 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change [3]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of pig 2511 is 11,410 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 360 yuan/ton; pig 2601 is 12,155 yuan/ton with a 485 yuan/ton increase; pig 2603 is 11,570 yuan/ton with a 290 yuan/ton increase [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of pig 2511 is 35,930 lots, an increase of 8,944 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 28,149 lots, a decrease of 7,695 lots. For pig 2601, the trading volume is 149,028 lots, an increase of 62,564 lots, and the open interest is 102,555 lots, a decrease of 4,417 lots. For pig 2603, the trading volume is 30,984 lots, an increase of 7,841 lots, and the open interest is 81,283 lots, a decrease of 308 lots [3]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of pig 2511 is 70 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 260 yuan/ton; the basis of pig 2601 is - 675 yuan/ton with a - 385 yuan/ton change; the basis of pig 2603 is - 90 yuan/ton with a - 190 yuan/ton change. The spread between pig 11 - 1 is - 745 yuan/ton with a - 125 yuan/ton change, and the spread between pig 1 - 3 is 585 yuan/ton with a 195 yuan/ton change [3]. 3.2 Market Information - 90 lots of warehouse receipts were registered at Shennong's Yunnan and Guangxi warehouses, and 21 lots at Guizhou Zhenfeng Fuyuan Source [4]. - Yuexiu and Yangxiang added new delivery warehouses [4]. 3.3 Trend Strength The trend strength is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view, with the range of trend strength being integers in the [- 2,2] interval [5].

农产品日报 | 2025-10-21 二育入场支撑，猪价短期偏强 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2601合约12155元/吨，较前交易日变动+485.00元/吨，幅度+4.16%。现货方面，河南地 区外三元生猪价格11.58元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.31元/公斤，现货基差 LH01-575，较前交易日变动-185；江苏 地区外三元生猪价格 11.56元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.10元/公斤，现货基差LH01-595，较前交易日变动-365；四 川地区外三元生猪价格10.88元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.05元/公斤，现货基差LH01-1275，较前交易日变动-435。 据农业农村部监测，10月20日"农产品批发价格200指数"为120.13，比上周五上升0.37个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格 指数为121.28，比上周五上升0.44个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.72元/公斤，比上周五下降1.7%； 牛肉66.14元/公斤，比上周五下降0.3%；羊肉61.76元/公斤，与上周五持平；鸡蛋7.48元/公斤，比上周五下降0.5%； 白条鸡17.57元/公斤，比上周五下降0. ...

Group 1 - The province is preparing for strong wind and rain due to Typhoon "Fengshen" and cold air, with measures in place to ensure the safety of people's lives and property [2][3] - The Hainan Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has issued a notification for fishing vessels to return to port by specific deadlines to avoid the typhoon, ensuring the safety of fishermen [2] - Agricultural departments are instructed to take proactive measures, including harvesting mature crops, reinforcing agricultural facilities, and preventing waterlogging [3] Group 2 - The department emphasizes the importance of monitoring geological disaster prevention and ensuring the safety of livestock by relocating them from low-lying areas [3] - Continuous tracking of the typhoon's progress will be conducted, with real-time weather information being disseminated through various channels [3] - The focus is on strengthening flood and wind prevention measures in aquaculture and ensuring the integrity of temporary construction facilities [3]

Core Insights - After the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the price of live pigs has accelerated its decline, with recent futures contracts falling below 12,000 yuan/ton [1] - Despite multiple state interventions in frozen pork storage, the market's recovery effect has been limited, leading to a situation where prices continue to drop even during the traditional peak consumption season [1] - The "insurance + futures" project, driven by futures, insurance, and local government, is providing significant support to small and medium-sized pig farmers [2] Group 1 - The state has initiated the storage of 15,000 tons of frozen pork on October 10, marking the latest action in a series of five storage initiatives in August and September [1] - On October 9, the first trading day after the holiday, the main futures contract for live pigs closed at 11,595 yuan/ton, with a single-day decline of 6.15% [1] - The price of the futures contract dropped to as low as 11,020 yuan/ton on October 17, indicating ongoing price pressure in the market [1] Group 2 - The "insurance + futures" project in the city of Luohe serves as a benchmark for the Dalian Commodity Exchange's "Farmer Income Protection Plan," highlighting its importance in managing price risks for pig farmers [2] - The project has successfully compensated farmers, such as the Zhichun Breeding Farm, which received over 180,000 yuan in compensation due to price declines, achieving a compensation rate of nearly 364% [2] - Since 2021, listed pig companies have shown increasing enthusiasm for engaging in commodity futures hedging, with several companies, including Haida Group and Muyuan Foods, announcing their participation in such activities [3]