Core Viewpoint - The China Securities A500 Index has outperformed traditional broad-based indices such as the SSE 50 and CSI 800 this year, primarily due to its industry-neutral composition rules and balanced weight distribution across sectors [1] Industry Analysis - The A500 Index has a lower allocation in underperforming sectors such as banking, non-banking financials, and food & beverage, which have shown weak performance this year [1] - Conversely, the A500 Index has a higher allocation in sectors that have performed well, including electronics, basic chemicals, pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, and media [1]

策 略 研 究 太 平 洋 2025 年 09 月 23 日 投资策略 策略日报（2025.09.23）：关注银行板块的配置机会 荡整理>>--2025-09-22 <<长风破浪会有时>>--2025-09-22 <<窄门 3>>--2025-09-23 E-MAIL：zhangdd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522040001 证券分析师：徐梓铭 E-MAIL：xuzm@tpyzq.com 大类资产跟踪 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 相关研究报告 <<策略日报（2025.09.22）：节前震 证券分析师：张冬冬 利率债全线下跌，利率债长端明显弱于短端，三十年期国债期货加 权今日再创新低，距离年内新低已经很近，预计今年 3 月份的低点附近 的支撑力度较强，做空者可适当止盈。A 股在节前胜率不佳，近期走势量 价不稳，震荡的概率较大，预计国债也将因此获得喘息。 在更长的时间 维度上，我们维持此前判断：此次债市下跌将创下年内新低，目标位在 去年 9 月份政策转向的低点（2024 年 9 月 30 日）附近。大盘突破去年 10 月 8 日高点后，成交量和波动率同步放大上涨，短期未看到结束的迹 象，预 ...

记者丨庞华玮 "9·24行情"满一周年，这一年，A股市场一扫阴霾，赚钱效应显著。 "三驾马车" 去年"9·24行情"至今刚好满一年的时间，过去一年，A股市场走出了两波大幅上涨的行情：第一波 是"9·24新政"出台之后，市场出现快速上攻，大盘在短短的几个交易日上涨逾千点，随后出现了一定的 调整。 第二波行情是从今年六月底至今，这一波上攻超过了去年10月8日创出来的上证指数高点，A股形成了 牛市的走势。 编辑丨张星 值得一提的是，这是一场以科技创新和高质量发展为核心的"结构牛"，它正深刻地改变着A股结构和投 资版图。 近一年，作为科技和新经济代表的创业板指、科创50、北证50等三大指数的涨幅均超过100%，人形机 器人、半导体、算力、创新药赛道等轮动行情引爆结构性牛市。 创业板指近一年走势。 截至9月23日收盘，近一年上证指数累计上涨39%，沪深300上涨41%，北证50指数更是暴涨158%。个股 方面，全市场近3000只个股涨幅逾50%，其中1400余只股价翻倍。 A股经过这两波大涨，指数全面开花，其中科技股含量重的指数表现尤为突出。 创业板指、科创50、北证50，这"三驾马车"作为新经济的代表，近一年（202 ...

Core Viewpoint - HSBC Holdings has launched a tokenized deposit service to support secure cross-border transfers for its corporate clients, with Ant International being the first customer to utilize this service [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - HSBC Holdings' stock rose over 1.3%, reaching a new all-time high of $70.93 [1] Group 2: Analyst Ratings and Expectations - Citigroup raised HSBC's H-share target price from HKD 105.6 to HKD 118.2 and included it in a short-term upward observation list for the next 90 days [1] - Citigroup anticipates HSBC's third-quarter underlying pre-tax profit to be $8.3 billion, exceeding market consensus by 3% [1] - The expectation is for HSBC to announce a dividend of $0.10 per share and initiate a $3 billion share buyback program [1]

170万亿元 people.cn 频读 0 -中国 9月22日，国务院新闻办公室举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会，介绍"十四五"时期金融业发展成就。在党中央坚强领导下，我国金融事业 取得新的重大成就。 "十四五" 以来 保险业累计赔付 9万亿元 较"十三五"时期增长61.7% 农业保险为8亿户次农户提供风险保障 商业养老、健康保险积累准备金11万亿 级读 p中国 " L m = " IS | 5317 银行业保险业通过 信贷、债券、股权等多种方式 频读 Q 乡中国 "十四五" 以来 交易所市场 57.5万亿元 直接融资比重稳中有升 "十三五"末提升2.8个百分京 较 t 读 一中国 "十四五"以来 上市公司通过分红、回购派发"红f 10.6万亿元 "十三五" 比 增长超过8成 资料来源：国务院新闻办公室新闻发布会 （文章来源：人民网） ...

Group 1 - Eurozone inflation is on a downward trend, increasing the likelihood of the European Central Bank (ECB) cutting interest rates again in 2025, with core inflation expected to fall below 2% due to slowing wage growth and declining commodity prices [1] - Bridgewater Associates warns of high government debt in the US and UK, leading to economic strain and social polarization, with UK productivity stagnating since the mid-2000s [1] - Deutsche Bank strategists predict a continued weak dollar, as investors shift away from US assets amid a new easing cycle from the Federal Reserve and concerns over its independence [2] Group 2 - German manufacturing is facing challenges, with a decline in manufacturing PMI to 48.5 indicating increased contraction, despite a rise in services PMI to 52.5 [2] - Malaysia's fiscal deficit target for 2025 is expected to remain at 3.8%, benefiting from lower Brent crude prices and a stronger ringgit, with inflation expectations adjusted down to 1.5% [2] - The H-1B visa reform in the US may reduce the outflow of Indian talent, benefiting India's economy, but could also lead to decreased remittances from the US, putting downward pressure on the Indian rupee [3]

Core Insights - The rising unemployment rate among Americans under 25, particularly recent graduates, is a significant economic concern for 2025, attributed to a "no hiring, no firing" environment rather than solely the rapid advancement of AI [1][2][4] Group 1: Economic Context - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted the unique challenges faced by young job seekers, noting that the current labor market is characterized by low hiring and firing rates, making it particularly difficult for new entrants [1][4] - Powell's observations align with concerns from economists regarding a cooling labor market, emphasizing that the low success rate in job seeking is coupled with low layoff rates [1][2] Group 2: AI's Role - While Deutsche Bank referred to recent months as the "summer of AI gone wild," Powell disagrees, suggesting that AI is a contributing factor but not the primary cause of the employment issues, which stem from an overall economic slowdown and hiring freeze [2][4] - Research from Goldman Sachs and UBS supports Powell's view, indicating that the current employment challenges are not primarily driven by AI at this stage [2] Group 3: Youth Employment Trends - UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan noted that the surge in youth unemployment in the U.S. contrasts sharply with global trends, where youth unemployment rates in the Eurozone and the UK are declining [4] - High turnover rates in the labor market have decreased since the late 1990s, leading to longer job search periods for young job seekers, with the average time to find a job increasing from 10 weeks to 12 weeks since 2019 [4][5] Group 4: Impact on Different Demographics - The employment struggles of Z-generation job seekers are exacerbated by a hiring freeze, which disproportionately affects recent graduates compared to lower-educated individuals who may find full-time employment sooner [5][6] - Historical data indicates that starting careers during economic downturns can lead to lower starting salaries and hinder upward mobility, with long-term effects on income and wealth accumulation [6] Group 5: Future Outlook - Powell mentioned that if layoffs begin to rise, hiring activity is unlikely to increase, indicating a potentially prolonged period of difficulty for young job seekers [6] - The uncertainty surrounding AI's impact on employment remains, with Powell acknowledging that while AI may play a role, it is not the main driver of the current youth unemployment crisis [6]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the EF account system in Hainan Free Trade Port facilitates cross-border capital flow, enhancing the efficiency and convenience for enterprises in international trade and investment [1][2]. Group 1: EF Account Overview - The EF account is a unified foreign and domestic currency account system established by banks in Hainan Free Trade Port, designed to streamline cross-border capital transactions [1]. - There are four types of EF accounts based on the account holder: EFE accounts for domestic institutions, EFN accounts for overseas institutions, EFF accounts for overseas individuals, and EFU accounts for domestic and foreign financial institutions [1]. Group 2: Benefits for Enterprises - Enterprises can complete cross-border fund transfers with just a payment instruction, eliminating the need for extensive documentation and approval processes, thus lowering operational costs [2]. - The EF account supports multiple currencies, including USD, EUR, and JPY, allowing enterprises to choose between onshore and offshore exchange rates for better financial management [2]. Group 3: Efficiency and Growth - The EF account has significantly improved the efficiency of cross-border transactions, reducing processing time from 1-2 days to 2-3 hours [3]. - As of August 2025, the number of cross-border settlement transactions has doubled compared to the previous year, with a notable increase in offshore trading activities [3]. Group 4: Future Prospects - The EF account will continue to provide robust financial support for higher levels of openness in Hainan Free Trade Port, adapting policies to meet the diverse financial needs of enterprises engaged in international trade [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Views - The company is transitioning towards a "quality first, moderate scale" strategy, moving away from a focus on rapid growth and scale [5][21]. - The bank's total assets grew by 3.1% year-on-year to 3.35 trillion yuan as of Q2 2025, indicating a slower growth rate compared to peers [5][21]. - The bank's stock is currently trading at a significant discount compared to its peers, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.45, reflecting a 12% discount [9]. Summary by Sections 1. Quality First Strategy - The bank has adopted a strategy of "quality first, moderate scale," focusing on sustainable growth rather than rapid expansion [5][21]. - The bank's shareholder structure has improved, with stable long-term capital from state-owned and insurance funds, alleviating previous concerns about problematic shareholders [6][27]. 2. Financial Performance and Projections - The bank's total revenue for 2023 is projected at 63.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.29% [7]. - The bank's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 15.0 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a slight decline of 1.17% from the previous year [7]. - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 7.83% in 2025, which is below the industry average [8][36]. 3. Investment Analysis - The bank's high dividend yield of 5.5% for 2025 is a significant attraction for investors, with a projected dividend payout ratio of 30.1% for 2024 [9][11]. - The report anticipates a potential upside of 15.2% based on a target PB ratio of 0.52 for 2025, indicating room for valuation recovery [9][10]. 4. Strategic Focus on Zhejiang - The bank has been focusing on deepening its presence in Zhejiang, with loans and deposits from the region accounting for 33.3% and 29.4% of the total, respectively, by the end of 2024 [21][27]. - The strategy aims to leverage the economic strengths of Zhejiang, which is characterized by a robust private sector and wealth distribution [21][11].

| 单位: 1 | | --- | | (乙元 5 | 新华财经北京9月23日电交易商协会23日公布的2025年8月债务融资工具发行统计数据显示，银行间市场 8月份共发行1139只债务融资工具，金额为8035亿元；其中，超短期融资券发行2523亿元，短期融资券 发行466亿元，中期票据发行3985亿元，定向债务融资工具499亿元，资产支持票据发行493亿元。 截至2025年8月末，银行间市场熊猫债发行规模累计8149亿元，年内发行1125亿元，包括国际开发机构 325亿元和境外非金融企业1125亿元。 此外，创新产品发行情况显示，8月份，绿色债务融资工具、乡村振兴票据、资产支持商业票据、可持 续发展挂钩债券和科创票据／科创债分别发行138亿元、59亿元、160亿元、70亿元和772亿元。 （文章来源：新华财经） | 时间 | | 日数 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025.1 | 673 | 1,059 | 9,221 | | 2 | 500 | 757 | 6,031 | | 3 | 703 | 1,124 | 9,009 | | 4 | ୧୧3 | 1,115 | 10 ...