农林牧渔行业 超配（维持） 农林牧渔行业双周报（2025/11/14-2025/11/27） 行 业 牧原股份赴港上市获证监会备案 2025 年 11 月 28 日 投资要点： 风险提示：疫病大规模爆发，价格下行，自然灾害，市场竞争加剧等。 资料来源：iFinD ，东莞证券研究 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn SW农林牧渔行业略跑赢沪深300指数。2025年11月14日—2025年11月27日， SW农林牧渔行业下跌3.79%，跑赢同期沪深300指数约0.18个百分点；细分 板块中，仅渔业录得正收益，上涨7.89%；动物保健、种植业、养殖业、 饲料和农产品加工均录得负收益，分别下跌0.85%、3.31%、3.34%、4.76% 和7.96%。估值方面，截至2025年11月27日，SW农林牧渔行业指数整体PB （整体法，最新报告期，剔除负值）约2.80倍 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Jinyu Biotechnology Co., Ltd., reported a revenue of 1.04 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.38%, and a net profit of 161 million yuan [2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 423 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.76%, and a net profit of 101 million yuan, which is a significant growth of 116.40% [3]. - For the first three quarters of 2023, the company's R&D expenses amounted to 96.01 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 9.08% [4]. Group 2: Product and Market Strategy - The company focuses on the research, production, and sales of veterinary biological products, with a product range that includes over a hundred types of vaccines for pigs, poultry, ruminants, and pets [3]. - The company is implementing a "big product, big customer" strategy, achieving breakthroughs in the development of major vaccines such as foot-and-mouth disease, African swine fever, and feline infectious peritonitis [3]. - The company is expanding its international presence, with products registered and sold in countries like Pakistan and Vietnam, and plans to enhance penetration in Central Asia, Southeast Asia, and Africa [4]. Group 3: Innovation and Future Plans - The company emphasizes technological innovation to address industry challenges, with ongoing development of innovative products like the African swine fever subunit vaccine and mRNA vaccine for feline infectious peritonitis [3]. - The company aims to transition from single product sales to a model that includes "professional services + comprehensive solutions," focusing on deep customer engagement [5]. - The pet business is identified as a significant growth area, with plans to establish a pet marketing ecosystem and expand into health products and pharmaceuticals [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Reap Bio (300119.SZ), currently does not have a specific vaccine for the H5N5 avian influenza, but its existing H5+H7 vaccine theoretically offers good protection against the prevalent H5N5 strain due to its genetic components [1] Group 1 - The company and the domestic market currently lack a dedicated H5N5 avian influenza vaccine [1] - The H5N5 strain circulating abroad belongs to the clade 2.3.4.4b genetic branch, which is crucial for evaluating vaccine efficacy [1] - The existing H5+H7 vaccine contains components of the clade 2.3.4.4b strain, suggesting it can provide adequate protection [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively expanding its pet health product line, with a long-term product planning scheme that includes chemical drugs, biological products, and pet health products [1] Group 1: Product Development - The company is focusing on self-branded production and sales of pet health products, without engaging in OEM business [1] - A comprehensive R&D and market operation team will be gradually established to support product promotion [1] Group 2: Market Strategy - The company plans to develop distribution channels primarily through offline veterinary hospitals [1] - The company will adhere to the disclosure obligations as per the Shanghai Stock Exchange regulations, ensuring timely announcements of relevant information [1]

Core Viewpoint - The animal health sector experienced a slight decline of 0.2% on November 24, with *ST Lvkang leading the drop [1][2] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3836.77, up 0.05% - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12585.08, up 0.37% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the animal health sector included: - Shenlian Biological (688098) with a closing price of 9.57, up 2.57% on a trading volume of 55,100 shares and a turnover of 52.32 million yuan - Yongshun Biological (920729) at 8.95, up 1.59% with a trading volume of 15,900 shares and a turnover of 14.22 million yuan - Xianfeng Holdings (002141) at 3.98, up 1.53% with a trading volume of 694,200 shares and a turnover of 275 million yuan [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The animal health sector saw a net outflow of 35.49 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 31.36 million yuan [2][3] - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with institutional investors withdrawing funds while retail investors increased their positions [3] Stock-Specific Capital Flow - Key stocks with significant capital flow include: - Dayu Biological (920970) with a net inflow of 1.55 million yuan from institutional investors - Pulaike (603566) with a net inflow of 0.99 million yuan from institutional investors - Shenlian Biological (688098) faced a net outflow of 2.88 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The animal health sector experienced a significant decline of 4.0% on November 21, with Shunlian Biological leading the drop [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3834.89, down 2.45% - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12538.07, down 3.41% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Shunlian Biological (688098) closed at 9.33, down 5.85% with a trading volume of 58,100 shares and a turnover of 55.30 million yuan - Huisheng Biological (300871) closed at 19.33, down 5.71% with a trading volume of 65,400 shares and a turnover of 130 million yuan - Yongshun Biological (920729) closed at 8.81, down 5.47% with a trading volume of 23,700 shares and a turnover of 21.71 million yuan - *ST Green Health (002868) closed at 41.88, down 4.99% with a trading volume of 5,569 shares and a turnover of 23.32 million yuan - Biological Shares (600201) closed at 11.76, down 4.85% with a trading volume of 491,800 shares [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The animal health sector saw a net outflow of 128 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 87.82 million yuan [1] - The following stocks had notable capital flows: - Shunlian Biological: net outflow of 11.71 million yuan from institutional investors [2] - *ST Green Health: net outflow of 6.34 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net inflow of 990,000 yuan from retail investors [2] - Huisheng Biological: net outflow of 8.69 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net inflow of 432,630 yuan from retail investors [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities indicates that in Q3 2025, the profitability of listed pig companies has significantly declined due to falling pig prices and rising raw material costs, while the cost variance within the industry remains substantial, leading to an expansion of cost advantages for high-quality pig companies. The overall demand is showing signs of recovery in the later cycle, suggesting a potential increase in pig prices in 2026 due to accelerated sow capacity reduction [1][2]. Group 1: Swine Farming - In Q3 2025, the profitability of 18 listed pig companies dropped to 5.54 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 71% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 38% [2]. - The cost variance in the industry remains significant, with high-quality pig companies further enhancing their cost advantages [2]. - The operational cash flow of listed pig companies continues to improve, while capital expenditures remain low and debt ratios are high [2]. - The report anticipates an acceleration in sow capacity reduction, which may elevate the average pig price in 2026 [2]. - Recommended companies include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, with additional attention on Shennong Group, Dekang Agriculture, Dongrui Co., and COFCO Joycome [2][5]. Group 2: Poultry Farming - The white feather chicken market is expected to see an increase in the import of grandparent stock chickens in 2024, but it will not return to pre-disruption levels until 2025 [3]. - The supply of parent stock chickens is expected to tighten in the second half of 2025, impacting the supply of commercial chickens in 2026 [3]. - The yellow feather chicken sector is experiencing a reduction in parent stock numbers to historically low levels, which may support future price increases [3]. - Recommended companies in poultry farming include San Nong Development for white feather chickens and Lihua Food for yellow feather chickens [3][5]. Group 3: Post-Cycle Demand - The demand for feed in the swine and poultry sectors is gradually recovering, leading to a notable improvement in feed demand [4]. - The demand for aquaculture feed is also expected to rise as the aquaculture sector recovers [4]. - The report forecasts continued demand growth for livestock feed in Q4 2025, while aquaculture feed demand may enter a seasonal decline [4]. - Recommended companies for feed include Haida Group, which is expected to benefit from overseas expansion [4][5]. - In the animal health sector, demand is recovering due to sustained profitability in the downstream farming sector, with major animal health companies expected to see improved profitability [4]. Recommended companies include Kexin Biological and attention on BioStock and Reap Biological [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement from Green康生化 indicates that its controlling shareholder, Shanghai康怡, has released a portion of its pledged shares, which does not pose any substantial risk to the company [1] Group 1: Share Pledge Details - On November 20, 2025, the controlling shareholder Shanghai康怡 notified that 5.1352 million shares were released from pledge on November 19, accounting for 10.86% of its holdings and 3.30% of the company's total share capital [1] - As of the announcement date, Shanghai康怡 and its concerted parties have a total of 5.2 million shares pledged, representing 10.61% of their holdings and 3.35% of the company's total share capital [1] Group 2: Risk Assessment - There is no risk of forced liquidation or transfer of the pledged shares from the controlling shareholder, indicating stability for the company [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Jinyu Biological Technology Co., Ltd. has shown significant growth this year, with an 81.11% increase in share price, indicating strong market performance and investor interest [1][2]. Company Overview - Jinyu Biological Technology Co., Ltd. is located in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, and was established on March 13, 1993, with its stock listed on January 15, 1999. The company primarily engages in the research, production, and sales of veterinary biological products [1]. - The main revenue composition includes 94.42% from biopharmaceuticals, 3.18% from other income, and 2.40% from supplementary sources [1]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, the company achieved an operating income of 1.042 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.38%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.85% to 161 million yuan [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 2.219 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 189 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 10.70% to 49,000, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 11.12% to 22,673 shares [2]. - Notable institutional shareholders include Guotai Zhongxin Livestock Breeding ETF, which holds 25.0398 million shares, and Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 21.1968 million shares, both showing increases in their holdings [3].

Core Viewpoint - The animal health sector experienced a slight decline of 0.31% on November 19, with Xianfeng Holdings leading the losses, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.18% to close at 3946.74 [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The animal health sector's individual stock performance varied, with notable gainers including Qudongli (up 3.98% to 10.71) and ST Lvkang (up 3.80% to 46.40) [1]. - Conversely, several stocks faced declines, such as Jinhai Biological (down 0.96% to 6.19) and Shunlian Biological (down 1.08% to 10.12) [1][2]. Group 2: Trading Volume and Capital Flow - The total trading volume for the animal health sector was significant, with Qudongli achieving a volume of 34,000 hands and a transaction value of approximately 35.9 million yuan [1]. - The sector saw a net outflow of 49.13 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 548.09 million yuan [2]. Group 3: Individual Stock Capital Flow - Among individual stocks, Shengong Holdings experienced a net outflow of 31.56 million yuan from retail investors, while Biotech Holdings saw a net inflow of 555.72 million yuan from retail investors [3]. - The stock with the highest net inflow from retail investors was Biotech Holdings, with 555.72 million yuan, while the largest net outflow was from Yongshun Biological, totaling 408.61 million yuan [3].