由三亚市人民政府主办，《财经》杂志、财经网、《财经智库》、三亚中央商务区管理局、三亚经济研 究院承办的"三亚·财经国际论坛暨第五届三亚财富管理大会"12月27日在海南三亚举行，主题为"海南自 贸港未来定位及三亚新机遇"。 海南大谷国际园区董事长张焱在论坛上表示，金融业是 高强度、高资本、高税收、高人才 的行业，政 策哪里有"洼地"，企业就会流向哪里。 海南大谷国际园区董事长 张焱 张焱在论坛发言中围绕海南自贸港发展背景，重点分享了金融聚集区建设、实体产业机遇及财富管理三 大主题。他回顾了亚太金融小镇自2017年以来的发展历程，指出2020年6月《海南自贸港总体方案》发 布后，双15%税收等政策红利迅速吸引企业涌入，推动三亚中央商务区等园区形成金融聚集效应。 金融创新方面，海南在QDLP（合格境内有限合伙人）、QFLP（合格境外有限合伙人）及ODI（境外直 接投资）等领域已实现开放突破，未来或可探索与香港在稳定币等前沿领域的合作。此外，人才配套措 施如安居房、医疗与教育资源完善，为金融人才落地提供了支撑。 主持并发言：肖 耿，香港中文大学（深圳）公共政策学院副院长、香港国际金融学会主席 主持人：我们有三位重量级 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced a significant surge in December 2025, with gold prices surpassing $4500 per ounce for the first time, driven by multiple factors including interest rate expectations, geopolitical risks, and supply-demand dynamics [1][3][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - On December 24, 2025, spot gold reached $4511.93 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over $1880, or nearly 70% [1]. - Spot silver also hit a historical high of $71.87 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase approaching 140% [1]. - In the domestic market, brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang saw their gold jewelry prices exceed 1400 yuan per gram, with specific prices reaching 1411 yuan per gram for Chow Sang Sang [1][2]. Group 2: Factors Supporting Gold Price Increase - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has increased, with predictions of at least two rate cuts in 2026 due to rising unemployment and declining inflation [3]. - Geopolitical risks, such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, are accelerating their gold purchases as part of a "de-dollarization" strategy, contributing to long-term support for gold prices [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Rising mining costs and stricter environmental regulations are slowing the growth of gold production [4]. - Increased demand for industrial gold, particularly in electronics and renewable energy sectors, is also contributing to the overall demand for gold [4]. - Investors are reallocating their assets from volatile stock and real estate markets to gold, further boosting short-term demand [4]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - For long-term holding or emergency liquidity, gold bars and coins are recommended over jewelry, as they are closer to raw gold prices and have lower premiums [6]. - Gold ETFs are suggested for those who prefer not to hold physical gold, as they offer convenience and liquidity similar to stocks [7]. - Caution is advised against high-leverage products like gold futures, which carry significant risks and are not suitable for average investors without expertise [8]. Group 5: Consumer Guidance - When purchasing wedding gold items, consumers are encouraged to consider smaller weights and designs that balance cost and aesthetic appeal, avoiding excessive spending on larger pieces [10]. - It is important for consumers to avoid blindly chasing high prices and to consider a diversified investment approach, allocating a reasonable portion of their assets to gold [12][13].

Group 1 - The Sanya Financial International Forum and the Fifth Sanya Wealth Management Conference will be held on December 27 in Sanya, Hainan [1][6] - Dai Min, head of investment advisory at Fidelity, highlighted significant achievements by leading Chinese technology companies in open-source models, model applications, and industrial robotics, benefiting both China and the global capital market [3][8] - The current economic upturn, supported by technology, presents opportunities for growth through diversified global equity asset allocation [3][8] Group 2 - The development of new energy has reached a stage where it not only applies to the energy sector but also drives demand for storage and computing power, which may create opportunities in traditional commodities, particularly copper, as a hedge against a weakening dollar [3][8] - Dai Min emphasized that gold assets will play an important role in capital preservation, similar to fixed income, amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [3][8] - There is a necessity for domestic wealth management to incorporate more diverse and composite investment tools into its framework [4][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the precious metals market witnessed a spectacular bull market driven by multiple factors such as the evolution of the global monetary system, geopolitical risks, and supply - demand imbalances. In 2026, the precious metals market will be jointly driven by macro - financial attributes and industrial supply - demand fundamentals, with significant differentiation among varieties [4][97]. - The safe - haven attribute of precious metals is shifting from the traditional model to hedging against sovereign credit risks. The currency attribute is affected by factors like inflation, employment, and central bank monetary policies. The commodity attribute is characterized by structural changes in supply and demand for different precious metals [19][27][68]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In 2025, all four major precious metals (gold, silver, platinum, and palladium) soared. Gold continued its bull market, silver and platinum doubled in value, and the precious metals sector became the most outstanding asset class. The market's rise was phased, with gold leading in Q1, silver emerging in Q2, and platinum and palladium surging in Q3 and Q4 [4]. - Gold reached a record high of over $4500 per ounce, with a nearly 70% annual increase. Silver was the star performer, rising over 140%. Platinum and palladium also had significant gains, with platinum up about 160% and palladium over 100% [8][10][14][17]. 3.2 Evolution Logic of the Safe - Haven Attribute - The safe - haven function of precious metals is shifting from traditional geopolitical and economic recession hedging to hedging against the sustainability of sovereign currency credit, especially the US dollar. This is due to the weakening of the US dollar credit and the multi - polarization reconstruction of the global monetary system [19]. - Different precious metals show different safe - haven attributes. Gold is most directly related to sovereign credit concerns, while silver reflects both safe - haven sentiment and industrial cycle changes, and platinum and palladium are more closely related to specific industry trends [21]. - The US debt situation, policy uncertainty, and the potential for a significant correction in the US stock market may increase the safe - haven value of precious metals. However, if geopolitical tensions ease or AI technology boosts productivity, the safe - haven attribute may weaken [23][25][26]. 3.3 Evolution Logic of the Currency Attribute - In 2026, global inflation is expected to continue its moderate decline, but there are significant regional differences. US inflation remains sticky, with a complex "U - shaped" or wave - like downward trend, while the eurozone's inflation problem is basically resolved [27][33][36]. - The US employment market is expected to remain weak in 2026, with low job growth and a rising unemployment rate. This will put pressure on the Fed's decision - making [41][42]. - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates in 2026, but the pace will be extremely slow, and the first cut may be later than market expectations. The difference in interest - rate cut expectations between the Fed and non - US central banks will affect the US dollar index and precious metals prices [52][59][60]. 3.4 Evolution Logic of the Commodity Attribute - In 2026, gold demand is expected to be driven by strategic allocation, with official and institutional investors playing a key role. Supply is facing long - term structural constraints, such as limited growth in mining and reduced elasticity in recycling [68][70]. - The silver market has been in a supply shortage for five consecutive years, and the gap is expected to widen in 2026. Supply growth is highly inelastic, while demand is driven by industrial needs and investment [73][74][75]. - The platinum market is expected to reach a tight balance in 2026, but the underlying support is fragile. Any unexpected supply disruption or demand surge may break the balance [79]. - The palladium market is expected to shift from a supply shortage to a surplus in 2026, driven by the decline in automotive demand due to electrification and a marginal increase in supply [80][81]. 3.5 Dynamic Combination Analysis of Fundamental and Technical Aspects - London gold has been in a long - term upward trend. It is expected to continue rising until the Fed hints at the end of interest - rate cuts in mid - 2026. Attention should be paid to the pressure at $4830 - 5000 and the support at $4000 [84][85]. - London silver is expected to have high volatility. It is recommended to focus on the pressure at $100 - 120 and the support at $58 [88][89]. - London platinum has entered a new cycle. Pay attention to the pressure at $3000 - 3300 and the support at $1760 [91]. - London palladium is in a long - term re - balancing phase. Focus on the pressure at $2080 - 2480 and the support at $1480 [95]. 3.6 Future Market Direction from the Perspective of Long - Short Game - In 2026, the precious metals market will continue to be strong, but there will be significant differentiation among varieties. Gold will be the most stable, silver will have high price elasticity, platinum has great potential, and palladium is expected to be the weakest [97]. 3.7 Overview of the Domestic Precious Metals Industry Chain - In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic gold production increased, with both domestic and imported raw materials contributing. Gold consumption decreased, but there were differences among different product categories. China has been increasing its gold reserves for strategic reasons [98][100][102]. - Major domestic gold enterprises have different production plans and characteristics. For example, Zijin Mining is the largest producer with a high proportion of overseas output, and Shandong Gold has rich resource reserves in the Jiaodong gold belt [103].

12月26日，赤峰黄金涨1.51%，成交额13.24亿元，换手率2.46%，总市值613.26亿元。 异动分析 金属铅+黄金概念+金属铜+人民币贬值受益+稀土永磁 来源：新浪证券-红岸工作室 主力持仓 主力没有控盘，筹码分布非常分散，主力成交额5.12亿，占总成交额的6.52%。 1、根据2024年半年报，公司旗下天宝山锌铅铜钼多金属矿主要产品包括锌精粉、铅精粉（含银）、铜 精粉（含银）和钼精粉。其对外销售的定价一般以精矿中所含的金属的市场价格为基准确定。主要是以 上海有色网1#锌锭的价格、1#铅现货的价格，上海期货交易所铜即期合约结算价为基准价，并根据精粉 产品中实际金属含量，综合考虑运输费、检斤费等因素确定结算价格；产品销售主要是通过预收货款的 方式进行，产品销售对象为长期合作的下游大型冶炼企业。 2、公司的主营业务是黄金、有色金属采选业务。公司的主要产品为黄金、电解铜等贵金属、有色金 属。 3、公司位于老挝的万象矿业目前主要从事铜矿开采和冶炼。 4、根据2024年年报，公司海外营收占比为69.11%，受益于人民币贬值。 5、2024年3月8日互动易：公司与厦门钨业合作，共同在老挝推动稀土资源开发。近日通 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market in 2025 has experienced an unprecedented surge, with international gold prices rising from $2,600 per ounce at the beginning of the year to $4,500 per ounce by December, marking an increase of over 70% [2][4]. Price Surge - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also seen significant increases, with prices per gram rising from around 800 yuan to over 1,400 yuan, and some high-end products exceeding 2,000 yuan per gram [2]. - The gold price has shown a remarkable increase of nearly 72% within a year, leading to a consumer rush driven by the mentality of "buying on the rise" [2]. Historical Context - The last time gold experienced such a dramatic annual increase was in the 1970s, but the current market dynamics are influenced by different factors, including geopolitical uncertainties and a weakening dollar [4]. - The World Gold Council attributes the strong performance of gold in 2025 to a combination of geopolitical and economic uncertainties, a weaker dollar, and the momentum of rising gold prices [4]. Consumer Behavior - The low-interest-rate environment has led to a shift in consumer behavior, with younger generations adopting new investment strategies, such as the "new three gold" model, which includes gold ETFs [5]. - There is a growing trend towards smaller gold items and high-premium ancient gold products, reflecting a change in consumer preferences [6]. Industry Dynamics - The continuous rise in gold prices has created challenges for downstream retail businesses, leading to high inventory levels and increased operational pressures [8]. - Upstream mining companies have benefited from the price surge, with major firms reporting significant profit increases, prompting them to expand resource acquisitions through mergers and acquisitions [7]. Retail Challenges - Retailers are facing multiple pressures, including high inventory levels and the need to close down franchise stores, as seen with major brands like Chow Tai Fook [8]. - Banks are also adjusting their gold investment thresholds in response to market risks, raising minimum investment amounts for gold accumulation plans [9]. Investment Risks - The surge in gold prices has led to risky investment behaviors, such as using consumer loans to purchase gold, which poses significant risks to investors [10]. - The phenomenon of bidding on judicial auction platforms for gold bars has created both opportunities and risks, with some investors experiencing significant losses due to impulsive bidding [10].

一是以黄金股、铜业股为代表的资源主线在国际金价、国际银价相继创出历史新高的刺激下走出了高开 走高的态势。二是以保险股为代表的非银板块也同步走高。三是商业航天板块、储能板块等叙事主线形 成了领涨态势。 但是，在周五午市收盘前，上证综指等主要股指突然跳水，且商业航天板块、保险股等非银主线均出现 了一定程度的同步杀跌态势。这可能是因为两个因素，一是大行纷纷买入美元，对冲人民币升值的动 能，从而使得人民币汇率在周五盘中有所疲软。二是关于A500ETF近期持续放量引起相关各方关注的小 作文，使得部分敏感的交易型资金持股心态渐趋不稳，他们纷纷抛售近期涨幅可观的热门品种，如非银 板块、商业航天板块、储能板块、资源主线等品种。 周五A股市场出现了震荡中重心上移的态势。其中，上证综指已八连阳，彰显出多头强劲的做多意志。 不过，在午市前，上证综指、深证成指等主要股指均有一波短暂的"跳水"动作。但在午市后迅速收复， 成交金额也随之放大，沪深两市成交金额重返2万亿元，显示出场外资金利用此次盘中调整迅捷加仓， 从而意味着短线A股的做多能量进一步增强，有利于后续行情的演绎。 高风险偏好增量资金入场 在周五早盘，A股市场出现了"集体积极做 ...

Gold Market - The recent Christmas holiday in Europe and the US has led to a quieter news environment for gold [2] - The gold bull market this year is driven by multiple favorable factors, including global central bank purchases disrupting supply-demand balance, a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy towards easing, and concerns over the US dollar's credibility due to Trump's trade policies and rising national debt [2] - Looking ahead to 2026, concerns over US dollar credibility and sovereign debt are expected to persist, alongside ongoing geopolitical tensions, suggesting that the gold bull market may continue [2] - Analyst Chen Yu from Bailihau Special Research believes that with lower interest rates and a weaker dollar, long-term support for gold prices remains unchanged, although after two years of a bull market, prices are likely to oscillate between consolidation and continuation [2] - On the technical front, recent price action shows a strong upward trend, with support found at the 20-day moving average [2] Oil Market - The oil market has been under pressure this year due to oversupply, leading to weak price performance [3] - Future prospects indicate that expanded sanctions on Russian oil companies by the US and Europe may create obstacles for buyers, providing some support for oil prices despite no significant decline in Russian oil output [3] - Oil-producing countries have significantly increased production this year, particularly non-OPEC nations, but the urgency for further increases from Saudi Arabia has diminished, as evidenced by OPEC+ pausing production increases in Q1 of next year [3] - Demand-side improvements are anticipated as global trade conditions become clearer, with recent reports from major global agencies raising oil demand growth forecasts [3][4] - The technical outlook shows a potential for a short-term price rebound, with key support at $58 and resistance at $60 [4] US Dollar Index - There is considerable internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding future rate cuts, which may limit the downside for the dollar [5] - The potential announcement of a new Federal Reserve chair by the US President could challenge the Fed's independence, especially given Trump's preference for loose monetary policy, which may exert downward pressure on the dollar [5] - According to CME's FedWatch, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is 15.5%, with an 84.5% chance of rates remaining unchanged [6] - The technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, with recent price action showing signs of stabilization, but the dollar remains below the 20-day moving average [6] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has been experiencing a period of high-level consolidation over the past month, with no clear directional movement until a breakout occurs [7] - The index is currently above the 20-day moving average, and a bullish crossover between the 20-day and 62-day moving averages suggests a higher likelihood of further gains [7] Copper Market - The copper market is showing strong bullish momentum, with recent price action indicating a breakout from a consolidation range [8] - The 20-day moving average continues to trend upward, indicating that bullish sentiment is dominant [8] - Key support is noted at $5.62, which will be monitored for potential price corrections [8] Market Overview - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that oil consumption has increased by over 1 million barrels per day annually over the past two years, with projections suggesting a potential increase of 20 million barrels per day by 2050 [9] - Saudi government data indicates an 11.8% increase in commodity exports in October, with oil exports rising by 4.0% [9] - An agreement has been reached between Iraq, the Kurdistan region, and international companies to extend the oil export agreement for three months until March 31 of next year [10]

Core Viewpoint - The significant increase in gold prices, reaching over $4500 per ounce, has prompted many companies to engage in hedging activities to mitigate price volatility risks, with a notable 70% increase in gold prices projected for 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of Gold Price Fluctuations - The surge in gold prices has led to various companies announcing their participation in futures markets to hedge against price volatility risks [1]. - A total of 1737 listed companies announced plans to participate in the futures market from January to October 2025, marking a 10.8% year-on-year increase [1]. - Companies are advised to adopt flexible and diversified inventory management and procurement strategies to optimize capital efficiency in response to price fluctuations [1][7]. Group 2: Company Strategies for Hedging - Companies like Zhongjin Lingnan and Shanjin International are actively engaging in hedging activities related to their production and raw materials to stabilize their operational performance [2]. - The hedging strategies include futures and options for various commodities such as copper, lead, zinc, aluminum, gold, and silver [2]. - Different segments of the gold industry are adopting tailored hedging strategies: upstream mining companies focus on selling hedges to protect against price drops, while downstream jewelry retailers may use buying hedges to manage rising procurement costs [6][8]. Group 3: Risks Associated with Gold Price Volatility - The volatility in gold prices poses multiple risks across the industry, including profit stability, inventory management, and demand decline risks [4]. - Companies face challenges in balancing inventory value preservation with capital occupation, as high gold prices can suppress end-consumer demand [4][5]. - The fluctuation in gold prices can lead to uncertainties in operational rhythms and financial reporting, potentially affecting stock performance [3]. Group 4: Recommendations for Inventory and Procurement Management - Companies are encouraged to dynamically adjust inventory levels to mitigate risks, such as reducing inventory during high price periods to lock in profits [7]. - Utilizing options tools, such as purchasing put options, can help protect inventory value against price declines [7]. - Engaging in gold borrowing can provide a cost-effective alternative to traditional loans, allowing companies to manage financial impacts from price volatility [7].

分红方面，恒邦股份A股上市后累计派现7.60亿元。近三年，累计派现3.17亿元。 资料显示，山东恒邦冶炼股份有限公司位于山东省烟台市牟平区水道镇金政街11号，成立日期1994年2 月18日，上市日期2008年5月20日，公司主营业务涉及黄金探矿、采矿、选矿、冶炼、化工及稀散金属 生产。主营业务收入构成为：黄金63.14%，电解铜19.52%，白银8.97%，矿粉销售2.85%，有色金属贸 易1.57%，铅1.54%，锌、锑、铋、硒等金属1.04%，硫酸0.56%，磷铵及其他化肥0.53%，其他0.23%， 其他(补充)0.06%。 恒邦股份所属申万行业为：有色金属-贵金属-黄金。所属概念板块包括：磷化工、中盘、融资融券、化 肥、小金属等。 截至12月19日，恒邦股份股东户数6.11万，较上期增加0.59%；人均流通股19522股，较上期减少 0.59%。2025年1月-9月，恒邦股份实现营业收入764.44亿元，同比增长31.44%；归母净利润5.62亿元， 同比增长20.89%。 12月26日，恒邦股份盘中上涨2.07%，截至10:17，报13.34元/股，成交2.32亿元，换手率1.46%，总市值 190 ...