20260224复盘 宏观： 1. 本月MLF操作，开展6000亿，净投放3000亿，加上此前的买断式逆回购，本月合计投放中长资金9000亿。 2. 20家日本实体列入出口管制管控名单。 日本宣布拟在距台湾110公里小岛，5年内部署导弹。 3. 特朗普政府正在考虑对六个行业征收新的国家安全关税。 可能涵盖大型电池 20260224复盘 宏观： 1. 本月MLF操作，开展6000亿，净投放3000亿，加上此前的买断式逆回购，本月合计投放中长资金9000亿。 2. 20家日本实体列入出口管制管控名单。 日本宣布拟在距台湾110公里小岛，5年内部署导弹。 3. 特朗普政府正在考虑对六个行业征收新的国家安全关税。 可能涵盖大型电池、铸铁及铁制配件、塑料管道、工业化学品以及电网和电信设备等行业。 人工智能： 1. Meta将采购足够数量的AMD最新芯片，以在未来五年内为其数据中心提供高达6吉瓦的计算能力。 3. 努比亚手机将在3月2日-5日的世界移动通信大会上发布一款"AI新物种"新手机，定位"AI手机先锋"。 4. 盘中传金刚石冷却技术交付，盘后辟谣。 5. 字节跳动 AI 代码开发工具 Trae 修改付费方式，由按 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in international gold and silver prices have caused volatility in the A-share cyclical sector, but the fundamental "supply-demand resonance" of the cyclical industry remains unchanged, supported by global power supply constraints, new demand from AI infrastructure and energy storage, and strategic reserve demands driven by national "resource security" policies [1][5] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - The cyclical industry is supported by a complete layout covering upstream resources, midstream chemicals, and downstream agriculture, with four funds from China Europe Fund focusing on the cyclical industry chain [1][3] - The four funds, managed by different fund managers, aim to achieve comprehensive coverage of cyclical investments, with specific focuses on energy metals, industrial metals, natural resources, basic chemicals, and agriculture [3][4] Group 2: Performance Data - As of December 31, 2025, the China Europe Cyclical Preferred Mixed Fund A has achieved a cumulative return of 104.16% since its establishment on November 14, 2023, significantly outperforming its benchmark [4][10] - The China Europe Resource Selection Fund A has a return of 80.46% since its inception, exceeding its performance benchmark by 33.88 percentage points, focusing on core resource varieties like copper and aluminum [4][10] Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The current third global commodity cycle is characterized by structural adjustments in the global economy, industrial upgrades, and geopolitical changes, with historical cycles providing a reference for understanding the uniqueness and sustainability of this cycle [5][6] - The ongoing global commodity cycle is expected to be prolonged, with major economies emphasizing "resource security," which supports the demand for core commodities like copper and aluminum [6][7] Group 4: 2026 Investment Directions - Fund managers have outlined investment directions for 2026, focusing on commodities such as copper, aluminum, lithium carbonate, gold, and small metals, while also considering opportunities in chemicals and coking coal [8][9] - The cyclical industry is expected to benefit from continued liquidity easing and supply-side constraints, with a focus on price-elastic new energy metals and industries that can increase reserves and production under "resource security" policies [8][9]

Group 1 - A-shares are presenting structural opportunities at the beginning of 2026, with public funds initiating a new round of investment amidst economic recovery and accelerated industrial upgrades [1][7] - Major institutions believe that sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and consumption have structural opportunities [1][7] Group 2 - There is an expectation of significant inflow of incremental funds into A-shares in 2026, supported by manufacturing investment and capital expenditure adjustments [2][8] - The domestic demand side, driven by fiscal policies, particularly the structural changes in special bonds, will influence A-share pricing [2][8] - The current environment is characterized by expanding liquidity and increased risk appetite, with a focus on fiscal and monetary policies [2][8] Group 3 - The AI sector is a focal point for public fund strategies, with expectations for continued strong performance in the AI industry chain in the first half of 2026 [4][10] - Significant advancements in AI models, such as Google Gemini 3 and Banana, are expected to boost market confidence and drive demand for AI computing power [4][10] - The semiconductor industry is rapidly evolving, driven by AI large models, with a focus on domestic production and R&D [5][11] Group 4 - The consumption sector is anticipated to see a resurgence in investment opportunities in 2026, driven by the release of wealth effects and an upgrade in high-end and service consumption demand [5][11] - The cyclical industry narrative is expected to undergo a transformation in 2026, influenced by policy-driven "anti-involution" and the reshaping of global supply chains [5][12]

Group 1 - A-shares are presenting structural opportunities amidst fluctuations, with public funds initiating a new round of investments in sectors like artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and consumption due to moderate economic recovery and accelerated industrial upgrades [1] - The manufacturing investment and A-share capital expenditure contraction are driving supply-demand rebalancing, providing support for corporate profits, while fiscal changes in special bonds will impact A-share pricing [2] - The market is expected to continue attracting significant incremental capital inflows in 2026, with major contributions from insurance funds and financing, while individual investors are primarily high-net-worth individuals with high-risk preferences [2] Group 2 - The AI sector is a focal point for public fund strategies, with expectations for continued strong performance in the AI industry chain in the first half of 2026, driven by breakthroughs in AI model capabilities and significant growth in annual recurring revenue from AI-native applications [4] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing rapid changes driven by AI large models, with a focus on domestic production and R&D, while non-AI semiconductor sectors may face pressure [5] - The consumption sector is anticipated to see a resurgence in investment opportunities in 2026, driven by the release of wealth effects and an upgrade in high-end and service consumption demands [5]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to experience a cautious sentiment ahead of the Spring Festival, with the prevailing advice from institutions being to "hold stocks during the holiday" due to historical trends indicating a higher probability of market gains post-holiday [1][3]. Market Trends - Historical data shows that the probability of market gains after the Spring Festival is significantly higher than before, with a 70% chance of an increase in the first five trading days post-holiday, and the expected gain for 2024 is projected at 4.85% [1][2]. - The market typically exhibits a pattern of "reduced volume before the holiday and increased volume afterward" [1]. Institutional Recommendations - Multiple securities firms, including Guangda Securities and Huajin Securities, suggest maintaining stock positions through the holiday, anticipating a rebound in market activity post-festival [3][4]. - Citic Securities indicates that the spring market rally is likely to continue after the holiday, despite recent adjustments, and recommends holding stocks during the holiday [5][6]. Economic and Liquidity Outlook - Economic and profit expectations are anticipated to improve during the Spring Festival, with favorable consumer data expected [4]. - Liquidity is expected to remain loose, with potential increases in net injections by the central bank and a stable level of market funds before the holiday [4]. Sector Performance - Technology growth and certain cyclical sectors are expected to outperform, supported by policy initiatives and ongoing industry trends [5][7]. - There is a potential for a rebound in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, computing, chemicals, and non-bank financials, which have historically low valuation percentiles [5][6]. Market Sentiment and Style Rotation - The market sentiment is expected to stabilize post-adjustment, with a notable rotation in style from large-cap to small-cap stocks after the holiday [6][7]. - The "Spring Festival effect" and increasing event catalysts are likely to create a favorable environment for market recovery [7].

Core Insights - The report indicates a continuation of the profit improvement trend in A-shares, with a disclosure rate of 55.8% for 2025 annual reports as of January 31, 2026 [1] - The sectors with the highest pre-announcement rates and profit growth are concentrated in upstream materials and technology manufacturing [1][2] - The overall pre-announcement rate for 2025 is 35.8%, showing a marginal increase from 33.5% in 2024, with the highest rates in non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, beauty care, and automotive sectors [3][5] Industry Comparison - The highest pre-announcement rates range from 50% to 82% in non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, beauty care, and automotive sectors, while the lowest rates (below 25%) are found in coal, real estate, light manufacturing, food and beverage, and retail sectors [1][2] - Profit growth rates for 2025 show non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, steel, automotive, and public utilities leading with a median year-on-year growth of 40% to 70% [2] - The report highlights that the profit growth for the majority of sectors, except for non-ferrous metals and steel, has improved compared to the third quarter of 2025 [2] Profit Growth Insights - The median year-on-year profit growth for all A-shares is reported at 17.9%, with a significant improvement of 12.6 percentage points from the third quarter [3][4] - The growth rates for the main boards, ChiNext, and STAR Market are 14.3%, 24.9%, and 22.4% respectively, indicating substantial improvements across all boards [3][4] - Specific sectors such as personal care products, electric motors, and aviation equipment show remarkable profit growth forecasts ranging from 65% to 275% for 2025 [2][11] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the overall profit improvement trend in A-shares is expected to continue, with structural highlights in upstream price increases and technology manufacturing [6] - Short-term market conditions are anticipated to remain favorable, with a focus on sectors with strong earnings support [6] - Mid-term expectations include continued policy support and industrial innovation driving profit improvements, with recommendations to focus on technology growth, commodity price beneficiaries, advanced manufacturing, and dividend assets [6]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of capturing opportunities in cyclical industries from price expectations to performance realization, with a focus on the relationship between commodities and US Treasury yields [5][7][8] - In the week ending January 30, 2026, global stock markets showed mixed results, with Hong Kong and UK markets leading gains, while major commodity futures saw significant fluctuations, particularly in crude oil prices [5][6] - The report highlights that the manufacturing PMI for January 2026 fell to 49.3%, down from 50.1% in December, influenced by the upcoming Spring Festival and a high base effect from the previous month [10][11] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that the decline in the manufacturing PMI is not solely due to seasonal factors but also reflects a high base from the previous month, which saw an unusual improvement [10][11] - The report notes that the production index decreased to 50.6%, while the new orders index fell below the threshold to 49.2%, indicating a slowdown in demand [11][12] - The non-manufacturing PMI also showed weakness, dropping to 49.5%, primarily due to a decline in the construction sector, which was affected by seasonal factors and a high base from the previous month [12][13] Group 3 - The report discusses the performance of various sectors in the domestic equity market, with financials, cyclical, and consumer sectors leading in trading volume, while 10 sectors saw gains and 21 sectors experienced declines [6][18] - The report highlights that the energy sector, particularly crude oil, saw significant price increases due to geopolitical tensions, while precious metals experienced a sharp decline following the nomination of a new Federal Reserve chair [5][7] - The report also mentions that the A-share market is currently facing downward pressure, with major indices showing significant declines, and emphasizes the need to monitor support levels in the coming weeks [18][19]

Group 1 - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with favorable policies and market conditions for the cyclical sector, driven by coordinated fiscal and monetary policies, including the issuance of long-term special government bonds and increased infrastructure special bonds [1] - The domestic economic recovery is confirmed, with all three PMI indices returning to the expansion zone by December 2025, and the IMF raising China's GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 4.5%, presenting opportunities for both fundamental and valuation recovery in cyclical sectors [1] - The cyclical industry is experiencing an upward trend in prosperity, with strong growth momentum in key sectors, such as a forecast of 120GW of new wind power installations in China for 2026 and a 36% year-on-year increase in transformer exports in 2025 [1] Group 2 - Global liquidity remains accommodative, benefiting the financial attributes of commodities, with expectations of continued easing in 2026, supported by supply-side reforms and structural upgrades in China [2] - The long-term backdrop of Sino-US competition is driving up the valuation system for resource products, with the "self-sufficient" strategy boosting demand for bulk commodities and contributing to long-term price support [2] - The focus is on three main directions: resources, overseas electricity shortages (electric power equipment), and chemical industry anti-involution, with optimism regarding market opportunities benefiting from improved liquidity and valuation shifts in January [2] Group 3 - The fund manager has extensive experience in the cyclical sector, achieving significant performance with the funds managed, including a 71.86% net value growth rate for the Minsheng Jianyin Cyclical Preferred Mixed Fund A in the past year, outperforming the benchmark [3] - Over longer periods, the Minsheng Jianyin Cyclical Preferred Mixed Fund A and the Minsheng Jianyin Urbanization Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund A have consistently ranked in the top third of their category [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry: Hong Kong Real Estate Market - The Hong Kong real estate market is expected to bottom out between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025, with fundamentals reaching their lowest point by April 2025. New home transaction volumes are projected to recover to 21,000 units, the same level as in 2019, while secondary home transactions will only recover to 70% of the previous peak of 56,000 units, indicating a slower recovery for the secondary market [1][2][3] - Property stocks of Hong Kong developers are currently undervalued, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio below 0.5. If valuations return to the previous cycle's upper limit of 0.8 PB, there is potential for at least a 100% increase. Companies with high property sales ratios and significant land reserves, such as Sun Hung Kai, Henderson Land, and Sino Land, are recommended for investment [1][4] Industry: Highway Sector - The recent adjustment in the highway sector is attributed to a style shift rather than changes in fundamentals. Stocks like Anhui Expressway, Shandong Expressway, and Sichuan Chengyu have seen adjustments of 30%-40%, but their dividend yields have become more attractive, with Shandong Expressway's yield nearing 6% [5][6] - The potential for growth exists due to expansion projects, making companies like Shandong Expressway and Anhui Expressway good investment opportunities [6] Company: J&T Express - J&T Express has experienced a stock price adjustment of approximately 15%, primarily due to the impact of share issuance and convertible bonds, which do not reflect the company's fundamentals. The company is expected to show strong performance in 2026, with significant growth in overseas markets [7] Company: Beibu Gulf Port - The stock price of Beibu Gulf Port has fluctuated due to news regarding the new land-sea corridor and the upcoming opening of the Pinglu Canal. After a recent pullback, it is considered a good time to invest again, especially with policy catalysts expected in the medium term [8] Company: SF Express - SF Express has optimized its low-cost e-commerce business, leading to reasonable growth in parcel volume and a month-on-month price recovery. The company's valuation is at historical lows, and it is expected to perform well in the upcoming quarters, making it a good investment opportunity [9] Industry: Construction and Building Materials - The construction and building materials sector still holds investment value amid a cyclical rebalancing, currently at a historically low allocation. Key companies to watch include traditional leaders like Skshu, Yuhong, and Weixing, as well as high-dividend stocks like Conch Cement and TPI Cement. Companies related to technology, such as Roman Holdings and Zhongtai Technology, are also recommended due to increased demand from domestic AIDC and AI-related construction [10] Industry: Commercial Aerospace and Space Photovoltaics - The commercial aerospace sector is gaining traction, with significant developments expected this year. Companies involved in space photovoltaics, such as Shanghai Port Bay, are highlighted for their potential demand and investment value [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook, focusing on long-term opportunities in cyclical industries [2][24]. Core Viewpoints - The macro timing model for January 2026 scored 0, indicating a 76.92% probability of an increase in the Wande All A Index over the following month, with an average expected gain of 3.18% [24][31]. - The report emphasizes the strong upward momentum in cyclical industries, particularly in non-ferrous metals and chemicals, driven by global macro events [24][25]. - Short-term investments in thematic sectors such as commercial aerospace, AI applications, and space photovoltaics have shown significant rebounds, although caution is advised due to potential volatility from rapid price increases [25][27]. Fund Size Statistics - In the period from January 19 to January 23, 2026, the top three increasing equity ETF types were: thematic index ETFs (59.135 billion), industry index ETFs (7.975 billion), and cross-border industry index ETFs (5.346 billion) [9][10]. - The top three increasing equity ETF products were: power grid equipment ETF (7.326 billion), chemical ETF (5.717 billion), and sci-tech chip ETF (3.953 billion) [10][14]. - The top three increasing equity ETF tracking indices were: segmented chemical index (9.829 billion), power grid equipment thematic index (7.326 billion), and SSH gold stock index (5.251 billion) [18][20]. Market Outlook - The report suggests a positive outlook for the A-share market in January 2026, with a focus on the micro-cap index and the CSI 500 leading the market [24][25]. - Long-term recommendations include a focus on non-ferrous metals and chemicals, with silver prices surpassing the psychological level of 100, indicating potential for further increases [24][25]. - The report anticipates a market characterized by oscillating upward trends, recommending a growth-oriented ETF allocation [67][68].