2026 年 01 月 02 日 策略类●证券研究报告 节后春季行情进行中，聚焦成长 定期报告 投资要点 分析师 邓利军 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080001 denglijun@huajinsc.cn 分析师 张欣诺 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910525110001 zhangxinnuo@huajinsc.cn 相关报告 新股次新板块整体延续博弈走势，但局部亮 点 可 能 更 为 凸 显 - 华 金 证 券 新 股 周 报 2025.12.28 一 月 春 季 行 情 延 续 ， 科 技 和 周 期 占 优 2025.12.27 新股次新板块弱势博弈，新一轮活跃周期尚 在酝酿-华金证券新股周报 2025.12.21 春季行情开启中，聚焦成长 2025.12.20 局部人气聚集推升新股板块交投意愿，但活 跃周期开启可能仍待观察-华金证券新股周 报 2025.12.14 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1/18 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 复盘历史，元旦后 A 股短期走势主要受政策和外部事件、流动性、海外股市走势 等因素影响。（1）2010 年以来的 16 年中有 11 ...

离岸人民币兑美元升破6.97，最高升至6.9678，创2023年5月以来新高。 银河证券认为，受美联储主席换届选举、美国一季度经济数据、通胀数据等多重关键因素影响，美联储具体降息节奏，可能会在2026年4月份以后更加清 晰。总体上，2026年美元指数与美债利率有望较当前水平继续下行，从而有利于提升港股估值，吸引外资流入港股市场。 1月2日，港股三大指数高开高走，截至发稿，恒指、恒生国企指数大涨超2%，恒生科技指数暴涨3.65%。 半导体指数暴涨8.3%。 截至发稿，华虹半导体(01347.HK)涨超10%、中芯国际(00981.HK)涨4.63%、芯智控股(02166.HK)涨3.81%。消息方面，华虹半导体发布多份公告表示，公 司拟通过发行股份方式向华虹集团等4名交易对方购买其合计持有的华力微97.4988%股权，并拟向不超过35名符合条件的特定对象发行股票募集配套资 金。 百度暴涨近8%，消息面上，1月2日，百度发布公告称，1月1日，昆仑芯已透过其联席保荐人以保密形式向香港联交所提交上市申请表格（A1表格），以 申请批准昆仑芯股份于香港联交所主板上市及买卖。目前的方案为建议分拆将通过昆仑芯股份的全球发售进 ...

1月2日，港股三大指数高开高走，截至发稿，恒指、恒生国企指数大涨超2%，恒生科技指数暴涨3.65%。 | 恒生指数 | 恒生国企 | 恒生科技 | | --- | --- | --- | | 26198.57 | 9120.48 | 5717.51 | | +568.03 +2.22% | +206.80 +2.32% +201.53 +3.65% | | | 恒指期货 | 港股通50 | 恒生生物科技 | | 26251 | 3958.48 | 14364.22 | | +603 +2.35% | +80.07 +2.06% | +185.74 +1.31% | 半导体指数暴涨8.3%。 | < W | | | Wind香港半导体(887132) | | Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 01-02 11:35:45 | | | | 15795.55 | | 昨收 14584.39 | | 成交额 | 80.4亿 | | 1211.16 | 8.30% | 今开 | 15152.53 | 成交量 | 1.8亿 | | 上 涨 | 14 | 平 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market opened positively, with significant gains across major indices, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [1][2]. Market Performance - As of the report, the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index both surged over 2%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 3.65% [2]. - The semiconductor index experienced a remarkable increase of 8.3% [4]. - Notable stocks included Hua Hong Semiconductor, which rose over 10%, and SMIC, which increased by 4.63% [7]. Company Announcements - Hua Hong Semiconductor announced plans to acquire a 97.4988% stake in Huahong Micro through a share issuance to four counterparties, along with a fundraising initiative [7]. - Baidu's stock surged nearly 8% following its announcement of a listing application for Kunlun Chip on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, indicating strong market interest in tech IPOs [7]. Currency and Economic Outlook - The offshore RMB appreciated against the USD, surpassing 6.97, reaching a high of 6.9678, the highest since May 2023 [8]. - Analysts at Galaxy Securities predict that the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions will become clearer after April 2026, which may positively impact Hong Kong stock valuations and attract foreign investment [8]. Investment Themes - Suggested investment themes include: 1. **Technology Innovation**: With a focus on self-reliance in technology during the 14th Five-Year Plan, the technology sector is expected to be a major investment theme, with significant growth potential in leading companies [9]. 2. **Cyclical Industries**: Sectors such as steel, construction materials, electrical equipment, and paper are anticipated to benefit from supply-side reforms, leading to improved supply-demand dynamics and profitability [9]. 3. **Consumer Sector**: The consumer sector, particularly in service consumption and new consumption models, is expected to see growth due to strategies aimed at expanding domestic demand [9]. Overall Market Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to experience a phase of both profit and valuation increases, driven by favorable policies and economic recovery [8][9].

"近期，资本市场多项重要改革政策落地，特别是在公募基金、财富管理方面有很多制度出台。"董樑表 示，2026年会看到这些政策的真正实施效果，有望提升普通投资者的获得感，这将会是市场的新变化。 对于短期的投资方向，董樑认为可以聚焦三个方向，一是科技创新带来的AI应用机会，中国制造业的 规模、体系和应用场景比较多，因此科技应用方面比较强，如果2026年在AI应用、科技应用场景上出 现突破，那绝对是非常大的成长机会；二是包括制造业在内的周期行业，经历产能收缩和外部环境需求 逐步稳定，竞争情况好转，叠加"反内卷"政策加持，周期性行业的表现值得关注；三是消费的潜在支付 能力逐渐被释放出来，要抓住其中一些新型消费机会。 中证报中证网讯(记者林倩)12月19日，由中国证券报主办的"2025财富配置与资产管理大会"在深圳召 开。申万宏源研究副董事长董樑在参加圆桌讨论时表示，2025年结构性的机会比较多，2026年市场可能 会迎来更多基本面、业绩上的支撑，在此基础上，A股市场有可能会演绎成全面的向上走势，以AI为代 表的科技力量仍值得关注。 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the 2026 Annual Conference is on the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) from technological breakthroughs to societal reconstruction, exploring how embodied intelligence drives industrial transformation and seeks paths for AI to align with low-carbon goals during the critical period of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][3] - The conference features prominent guests including Terrence Sejnowski, a member of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, and Xue Lan, Director of the National New Generation Artificial Intelligence Governance Professional Committee [3] Group 2 - Insights from the industry highlight how breakthroughs in AI models in 2026 will reshape investment logic in computing power, applications, and aerospace computing, with models like DeepSeek driving advancements in China [5][6] - The long-term improvement in the A-share market environment is expected to stem from a decline in interest rates and increased liquidity, with the CSI A500 index providing balanced industry allocation and core asset selection [8] Group 3 - The 2026 Annual Strategy Conference will focus on the restructuring and opportunities in cyclical industries under the "anti-involution" policy, discussing how construction materials can accelerate clearing at the bottom, and how new chemical materials can benefit from supply-demand improvements [10] - The investment outlook for 2026 emphasizes resilience and rebalancing, with global investment patterns influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, alongside China's fiscal policies potentially boosting economic growth [13][14]

导语："投资大家谈"是点拾投资的公益内容栏目，希望通过每周日不定期的推送，让更多人看到 基金经理对投资和市场的思考。"投资大家谈"栏目内容以公益类的分享为主，不带有基金产品的 代码和信息，也必须来自基金经理的内容创作。 也欢迎大家给我们投稿：azhu830 yeah.net！ 下面，我们分享来自鹏华基金的最新12月思考。年底权益市场进入短期震荡，但不改未来趋势， 短期调整或为投资者带来较好的为来年布局机会。当前债券市场虽然未出现明确主线，但利率并 未对四季度基本面的边际走弱和可能的流动性宽松定价，市场留有足够的宏观叙事空间。海外市 场，美股重拾升势，美元转弱，美债收益率下行，信用利差收窄。展望未来，主动权益、固定收 益、量化指数以及多元资产有哪些投资机会值得重点关注？本期月观，我们邀请了鹏华基本面投 资专家和大家一起分享最新的深度投资观点。 主动权益 王海青 鹏华基金研究部副总经理 市场向上趋势与主线并未改变，短期调整给投资者带来较好的为来年布局的机会。我们看好以科 技为代表的先进制造业，也看好以有色、化工为代表的周期以及非银方向。 年底市场进入短期震荡，但不改未来趋势。 市场在经历三季度科技主线大涨之后，上 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Chemical Industry - The CCPI price index for the chemical industry increased slightly to 3,868 points, up 1% from the previous week, indicating a stabilization in prices [7][8] - Fixed asset investment growth in the chemical raw materials and products sector decreased to -7.9% in October, down from -5.6% previously, signaling a slowdown in investment [7][8] - Improvement in liquidity and anti-dumping policies are seen as catalysts for a potential recovery in the chemical sector in Q4 2025, with a focus on chemical fiber, nickel-chromium, agricultural chemicals, and lithium battery materials [8] Oil Shipping Industry - Oil shipping rates reached a five-year high of $126,000, driven by OPEC production cuts and increased demand, with supply tightness expected in 2025 [3][4] - The U.S. sanctions on Russian and Iranian fleets have further tightened compliant shipping capacity [3] - Recommendations include招商轮船 (Zhongshan Shipping) and 海南港股 (Hainan Port Stocks) due to favorable market conditions [4] Express Delivery Industry - During the Double Eleven shopping festival, 极兔速递 (Jitu Express) reported a global average daily package volume of 94.59 million, a 15% year-on-year increase, with significant growth in Southeast Asia and new markets [5] - The average daily package volume in Brazil exceeded 1 million, confirming the company's expansion potential in new markets [5] - The overall growth rate of express delivery volume slowed to less than 10% due to price increases, particularly in Guangdong where prices rose by approximately 0.5 yuan [6] Lithium Battery Materials - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate surged from 50,000 yuan to 135,000 yuan per ton, reflecting strong market demand [9][10] - The price of additives like vinyl carbonate (VC) increased significantly due to supply disruptions, with VC prices rising from 77,000 yuan to 115,000 yuan [9][10] - Recommendations include 新宙邦 (New Zobon) and关注莲花科技 (Lianhua Technology) for their strong positions in the lithium battery supply chain [10] Organic Silicon Industry - The organic silicon industry has seen a price increase for DMC to 13,000 yuan, driven by a consensus to reduce production by 30% [11] - No new production capacity is expected from 2025 to 2026, while demand is projected to grow by 8-10%, indicating a potential supply-demand improvement by 2026 [11] Vitamin Market - The vitamin market is showing signs of seasonal demand, with prices for vitamin E and A recovering due to low inventory levels [12][13] - Recommendations include focusing on leading companies like 新和成 (New Hecheng) and 花园生物 (Garden Bio) for investment opportunities [13] Metal Sector - The metal sector has performed strongly, with expectations for continued interest in aluminum and energy metals [14] - Recommendations include 盛新锂能 (Shengxin Lithium) and 雅化集团 (Yahua Group) as key players in the market [14] Coal Industry - The coal sector is experiencing price fluctuations, with port coal prices rising but at a slower rate [15][16] - Anticipated increases in demand due to colder weather could drive prices higher, presenting a good investment opportunity in coal stocks [16] Conclusion - The conference call highlighted various sectors with distinct trends and investment opportunities, particularly in the chemical, oil shipping, express delivery, lithium battery materials, organic silicon, vitamin, metal, and coal industries. Each sector presents unique dynamics influenced by market conditions, regulatory changes, and consumer demand.

Core Viewpoint - The main factors influencing the A-share market in October are policies and external events, liquidity, and fundamentals, with historical data indicating a tendency for the market to be volatile during this month [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Performance - Since 2010, the Shanghai Composite Index has shown an upward trend in October during years when the "Five-Year Plan" was implemented, such as in 2010, 2015, and 2020 [2][3]. - Out of the last 15 years, the index has risen in 8 instances during October [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Policies and external events are the core influencing factors; positive developments may lead to market gains, while tightening policies or negative external shocks could weaken the market [2][3]. - Liquidity conditions are also crucial; a loose liquidity environment can boost the market, as seen in 2010 with the anticipation of QE2, in 2015 with interest rate cuts, and in 2019 with Fed rate cuts [2][3]. - The performance of the third-quarter reports is expected to significantly impact the market in October, with potential structural recovery in earnings [2][3]. Group 3: October Outlook - The A-share market is likely to continue a slow bullish trend in October, supported by positive policy expectations and a potentially loose liquidity environment [3]. - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session may enhance positive policy expectations, while geopolitical tensions could remain a concern, particularly regarding U.S.-China trade relations [3]. - Economic conditions are expected to show weak recovery, with third-quarter earnings reports indicating a structural rebound in sectors like technology and cyclical industries [3]. Group 4: Sector Allocation - The technology and growth sectors are expected to outperform in October, particularly those related to the "14th Five-Year Plan," which emphasizes technological innovation and domestic demand [4]. - Historical data suggests that industries with strong earnings reports during the third-quarter disclosure period tend to perform well, with high growth expected in technology and cyclical sectors [4]. - The current Fed rate cut cycle may favor technology and certain cyclical industries, with a higher likelihood of leading performance from sectors like computing, automotive, and electronics [4]. - Recommendations include accumulating positions in sectors benefiting from policy support and improving fundamentals, such as communication, machinery, electronics, and renewable energy [4].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huajin Securities indicates that the core factors driving the end of the A-share market's fluctuations are positive policies and external events, sufficient adjustment of market sentiment indicators, and completion of industry rotation [1][3]. Market Sentiment and Industry Rotation - Historical analysis shows that the end of fluctuations in A-shares is primarily driven by positive policies or external events, such as significant policy announcements and monetary easing measures [1]. - Current market sentiment indicators have not fully adjusted, with the Shanghai Composite Index valuation percentile dropping to a low of 65.7%, turnover rate percentile at 75.6%, and total A-share trading volume declining by up to 37% [3][4]. - Industry rotation is still incomplete, with only the agriculture sector showing signs of recovery, while other sectors have not yet fully rotated [3]. Economic and Liquidity Trends - The economy and corporate profits are in a weak recovery trend, with August export growth slowing and credit growth rebounding, indicating continued economic recovery [4]. - Liquidity is expected to remain loose in the short term, with significant inflows from foreign capital and new funds, despite potential outflows from domestic financing [4]. Industry Allocation Strategy - The recommendation is to continue low-cost allocations in technology growth and cyclical industries, as these sectors are likely to outperform during market adjustments [5]. - Key sectors to focus on include electronics, communications, and non-ferrous metals, which align with strong industrial trends [5]. - Valuation attractiveness is noted in sectors such as electric equipment, automotive, media, and consumer goods, suggesting a favorable investment environment [5].