Report Information - Report Title: Oil and Oilseed Industry Daily Report - Date: August 20, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Core Views Palm Oil - **International Market**: The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in a high - level volatile consolidation. Due to concerns about production growth and a slowdown in export growth in the second half of the month, there is pressure for the futures to fall below 4,500 ringgit and further weaken, with an expected test of the 4,350 - 4,400 ringgit range for support. After a short - term stabilization, there is a chance to rebound to 4,500 ringgit. In the long term, affected by seasonal production growth and the expected significant inventory increase from August to September, the futures price may decline to 4,000 ringgit [3]. - **Domestic Market**: The Dalian palm oil futures are also in a high - level volatile consolidation. After breaking below the 9,500 yuan support, there is pressure for further weakening, with an expected test of the 9,200 yuan platform for support, and strong support at around 9,000 yuan. After the current adjustment, there is a possibility of the futures strengthening again. The long - term upward trend remains good, and it is currently considered a Wave 4 adjustment [3]. Soybean Oil - International crude oil decline due to expected easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and concerns about potential changes in the US biodiesel policy have dragged down the vegetable oil market. The expected high yield of US soybeans has also affected domestic oils. In the domestic market, the current downstream demand is not strong, but due to expected increased domestic demand and potential price increases of palm oil during the Indian Diwali festival, the Dalian soybean oil futures may rise after the adjustment, with support for the January contract at around 8,300 yuan [4]. Soybean Meal - The slowdown in the decline of South American soybean premiums and institutional oil - meal arbitrage adjustments support soybean meal. Institutions such as Qiankun and Morgan have increased their long positions by over 10,000 lots, making the short - term trend of the main contract of Dalian soybean meal firm, oscillating around 3,150 yuan. The spot prices of oil mills are mostly stable, with some slightly decreasing. Feed mills' physical inventories can generally last until the end of September, and the slow purchase progress for December - January shipments leads to a consistent bullish expectation for the long - term soybean meal price. The short - term spot price is expected to range from 3,000 to 3,200 yuan/ton [17]. Price Information Oil Price Spread | Spread Type | Unit | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 308 | 8 | | P 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | - 256 | - 6 | | P 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 52 | - 2 | | Y 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 320 | - 62 | | Y 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | - 348 | 66 | | Y 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | 28 | - 4 | | OI 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 151 | 5 | | OI 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | - 199 | - 27 | | OI 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | 48 | 22 | | Y - P 01 | yuan/ton | - 1114 | - 46 | | Y - P 05 | yuan/ton | - 1126 | 24 | | Y - P 09 | yuan/ton | - 1034 | - 48 | | Y/M 01 | - | 2.6972 | - 0.07% | | Y/M 05 | - | 2.8854 | 0.99% | | Y/M 09 | - | 2.7478 | - 0.35% | | OI/RM 01 | - | 3.7826 | - 0.3% | | OI/RM 05 | - | 3.8719 | 0.16% | | OI/RM 09 | - | 3.696 | 0.84% | [5] Palm Oil Spot and Futures Prices | Contract | Unit | Price | Today's Change (Rate) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil 01 | yuan/ton | 9554 | - 0.89% | | Palm Oil 05 | yuan/ton | 9248 | - 0.9% | | Palm Oil 09 | yuan/ton | 9486 | - 1.06% | | BMD Palm Oil Main | ringgit/ton | 4496 | - 0.55% | | Guangzhou 24 - degree Palm Oil | yuan/ton | 9440 | - 220 | | Guangzhou 24 - degree Basis | yuan/ton | 20 | 94 | | POGO | US dollars/ton | 546.91 | - 1.168 | | International Soybean - Palm Oil | US dollars/ton | - 49.6 | 5 | [8] Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Prices | Contract | Unit | Latest Price | Change Rate (Spread) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Oil 01 | yuan/ton | 8414 | - 0.03% | | Soybean Oil 05 | yuan/ton | 8124 | 0.56% | | Soybean Oil 09 | yuan/ton | 8442 | 0.1% | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main | cents/pound | 51.84 | - 2.72% | | Shandong First - grade Soybean Oil Spot | yuan/ton | 8430 | - 200 | | Shandong First - grade Soybean Oil Basis | yuan/ton | 104 | - 10 | | BOHO (Weekly) | US dollars/barrel | 55.602 | - 10.9904 | | Domestic First - grade Soybean Oil - 24 - degree Palm Oil | yuan/ton | - 900 | - 150 | [13] Oilseed Futures Prices | Contract | Closing Price | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3160 | - 1 | - 0.03% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2860 | 16 | 0.56% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 3116 | 3 | 0.1% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2627 | 23 | 0.88% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2517 | 12 | 0.48% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2667 | - 11 | - 0.41% | | CBOT Yellow Soybean | 1033.25 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.1865 | 0 | 0% | [18] Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Spread | Spread | Price | Today's Change | Spread | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 300 | - 17 | RM01 - 05 | 110 | 11 | | M05 - 09 | - 256 | 13 | RM05 - 09 | - 150 | 23 | | M09 - 01 | - 44 | 4 | RM09 - 01 | 40 | - 34 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 3020 | - 30 | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | - 140 | - 29 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2550 | - 7 | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | - 54 | - 21 | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 470 | - 30 | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 533 | - 24 | [19][21]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the global supply of vegetable oils is increasing, with domestic supply in China being stable, and prices are within a historically reasonable range [1] - The global production of nine major vegetable oils is expected to reach 235 million tons in the 2025/2026 season, an increase of 6.37 million tons year-on-year, with soybean oil, palm oil, and sunflower seed oil contributing significantly to this growth [1] - Key factors to watch in the future vegetable oil market include tariff policies, soybean arrival conditions in the fourth quarter, palm oil production increases, and biodiesel industry policies [1] Group 2 - Global vegetable oil consumption is projected to reach 224 million tons in the 2024/2025 season, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, with industrial consumption growing faster than edible consumption [2] - By the 2025/2026 season, global vegetable oil consumption is expected to further increase to 230 million tons, with industrial consumption accounting for 28% of total consumption, up from 22.2% in the 2010/2011 season [2] - The growth in biodiesel production is significantly driving the increase in global industrial consumption of vegetable oils, with nearly 20% of vegetable oils being used for biodiesel [2]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 China (Zhengzhou) International Futures Forum highlighted the significant role of the edible vegetable oil market in China, noting that while imports have decreased, they still dominate the market. The overall price of vegetable oils in China has increased due to global supply-demand balance, but remains within a historically reasonable range. Future market trends will be influenced by tariff policies, soybean import conditions in Q4, palm oil production increases, and biodiesel industry policies [1][2]. Supply Analysis - The global production of nine major vegetable oils is on the rise, with an expected output of 235 million tons for the 2025/2026 season, an increase of 6.37 million tons year-on-year. This includes a production increase of 2.65 million tons for soybean oil, 1.79 million tons for palm oil, and 1.65 million tons for sunflower seed oil [1]. Demand Analysis - For the 2024/2025 season, global vegetable oil consumption is projected to reach 224 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.3%. This includes a 2.3% increase in edible consumption and a 2.7% increase in industrial consumption. By the 2025/2026 season, total consumption is expected to rise to 230 million tons. Notably, industrial consumption is anticipated to account for 28% of total consumption, up from 22.2% in the 2010/2011 season, indicating a significant shift in consumption structure [2].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of futures hedging for oilseed and oil enterprises to stabilize operations and mitigate risks in the context of increasing price volatility in the commodity market [1][2] - Jinlongyu (金龙鱼) is highlighted as a leader in the industry, showcasing outstanding performance in its futures hedging business and setting a benchmark for information disclosure in the sector [1][2] Group 1: Company Performance - Jinlongyu reported a revenue of 1156.82 billion yuan in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.67% [2] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders reached 17.56 billion yuan, a significant increase of 60% compared to the previous year [2] - The non-recurring net profit was 13.89 billion yuan, showing a remarkable growth of 764% year-on-year [2] Group 2: Hedging Strategy and Industry Trends - The hedging strategy has evolved from merely risk defense to becoming a strategic foundation for stable operations, integrating futures tools with spot operations [2][4] - The overall participation rate in hedging within the grain and oil processing industry is high, with both large and small enterprises engaging in hedging activities [3] - The industry is moving towards a phase characterized by comprehensive coverage, refined operations, and strategic enhancement in hedging practices [3] Group 3: Information Disclosure Practices - Jinlongyu has set a standard for transparent information disclosure regarding its hedging activities, allowing investors to understand the effectiveness of risk management [6][8] - The company’s half-year report provided detailed information on hedging tools, their purposes, and the financial impacts, enhancing investor trust [6][7] - The shift towards transparent disclosure is seen as crucial for improving investor confidence and understanding of financial risks and performance [8][9] Group 4: Industry Implications - Jinlongyu's practices serve as a model for other companies in the oilseed and oil sector, highlighting the importance of effective risk management and value creation through hedging [9][10] - The article suggests that companies should recognize the significance of hedging in both risk management and value creation, while also prioritizing accurate and timely information disclosure [9][10] - The future of the industry will likely see continued price volatility, making hedging an essential tool for enterprises to achieve sustainable development [10]

8月18日，国内期市油脂油料板块多数飘红。其中，棕榈油期货主力合约开盘报9520.00元/吨，今日盘 中高位震荡运行；截至发稿，棕榈油主力最高触及9672.00元，下方探低9520.00元，涨幅达1.96%附 近。 据船运调查机构SGS公布数据显示，预计马来西亚8月1-15日棕榈油出口量为537183吨，较上月同期出 口的399366吨增加34.5%。 船运调查机构AmSpec数据显示，马来西亚8月1-15日棕榈油出口量环比增长21%。 上周五中午有消息显示，印尼动用军队已经查封了300多万公顷的非法油棕种植园，约占印尼官方种植 总面积的20%。 后市来看，棕榈油期货行情将如何运行，相关机构观点汇总如下： 宝城期货分析称，马来西亚棕榈油局7月供需数据影响中性偏多，印尼马来纷纷上调出口关税，支撑价 格韧性。目前印尼生物柴油政策虽然实施时间存在不确定性，但需求增长仍未棕榈油价格提供长期支 撑。国内棕榈油期价缺乏自身驱动，整体跟随国际棕榈油期价走势，短期仍是易涨难跌走势。 正信期货表示，产地供需及政策均有支撑，棕榈油破位上行，前期低位多单继续持有。 ...

Core Insights - The domestic oilseed market shows mixed performance, with palm oil futures rising over 2% while peanut futures decline slightly [1] - As of August 18, the main contracts for various oilseeds have shown the following price changes: canola meal up 1.13% to 2592.00 CNY/ton, canola oil up 0.85% to 9862.00 CNY/ton, and palm oil up 2.02% to 9596.00 CNY/ton [1] Price Trends - On August 18, the opening and closing prices for key oilseed futures were as follows: - Soybean oil: opened at 8558.00 CNY, previous close at 8534.00 CNY - Palm oil: opened at 9520.00 CNY, previous close at 9460.00 CNY - Canola oil: opened at 9783.00 CNY, previous close at 9757.00 CNY - Canola meal: opened at 2557.00 CNY, previous close at 2546.00 CNY [2] Warehouse Receipt Data - As of August 15, warehouse receipts for various oilseed futures showed the following changes: - Soybean oil: 14840 contracts, down 2130 from the previous day - Palm oil: 1420 contracts, unchanged - Canola oil: 3487 contracts, unchanged - Soybean meal: 10925 contracts, unchanged - Canola meal: 9821 contracts, unchanged [3] Basis and Spot Prices - The basis and spot prices for key oilseed products as of August 15 are as follows: - Canola oil: spot price 9876.67 CNY, futures price 9779 CNY, basis 97 CNY - Canola meal: spot price 2648.33 CNY, futures price 2563 CNY, basis 85 CNY - Palm oil: spot price 9428 CNY, futures price 9406 CNY, basis 22 CNY - Soybean meal: spot price 3092 CNY, futures price 3137 CNY, basis -45 CNY [4]

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Report Information - Report Title: Oilseeds and Oils Industry Daily Report - Report Date: August 15, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Views Oils - **Palm Oil**: Internationally, Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are strongly supported by favorable export data, with expectations to break through the 4500 ringgit resistance level. However, concerns about increasing production in the second half of the month and potential inventory growth at the end of the month may lead to a slowdown in the 4500 - 4580 ringgit range. Domestically, Dalian palm oil futures are also on a strong, volatile trend, testing the 9500 yuan mark. If it can hold above this level, it may reach 9700 yuan by the end of the month. Otherwise, it could retreat to the 9000 - 9200 yuan range. Both international and domestic markets are expected to maintain a near - strong, far - weak pattern [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: Spot prices fluctuate with the market, and basis quotes remain mostly stable. Some regions have seen good contract sales for October and later due to uncertainty about soybean arrivals in the fourth quarter. With the start of school in August and Mid - Autumn Festival preparations, market demand is increasing, and short - term futures consolidation may support a slight increase in basis quotes [3]. Oilseeds - **Soybean Meal**: South American soybean premiums have declined, and the sharp drop in rapeseed meal futures has led some institutions to take profits. The main contract of Dalian soybean meal has filled the previous gap and may strengthen again after stabilizing in the 3100 - 3120 range. Spot prices have decreased by 30 - 60 yuan/ton, but due to narrowing crushing margins and a lag in spot price increases, the downward adjustment space for traders is limited. Short - term domestic soybean meal inventories are slowly decreasing, and the price trend is upward [14]. Summary by Directory Oils Month - to - Month and Variety Spreads - **Palm Oil**: P 1 - 5 spread is 282 yuan/ton, down 38; P 5 - 9 is - 208 yuan/ton, up 46; P 9 - 1 is - 74 yuan/ton, down 8. - **Soybean Oil**: Y 1 - 5 spread is 442 yuan/ton, down 16; Y 5 - 9 is - 462 yuan/ton, up 12; Y 9 - 1 is 20 yuan/ton, up 4. - **Variety Spreads**: Y - P 01 is - 848 yuan/ton, up 66; Y - P 05 is - 1008 yuan/ton, up 44; Y - P 09 is - 754 yuan/ton, up 78. Y/M and OI/RM spreads also show various changes [4]. Palm Oil Spot and Futures Prices - Futures prices: Palm oil 01 is 9460 yuan/ton, up 0.98%; Palm oil 05 is 9180 yuan/ton, up 1.03%; Palm oil 09 is 9394 yuan/ton, up 1.08%. - International price: BMD palm oil main contract is 4412 ringgit/ton, up 0.2%. - Spot price: 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou is 9320 yuan/ton, up 10. The basis is - 58 yuan/ton, down 104 [5]. Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Prices - Futures prices: Soybean oil 01 is 8534 yuan/ton, down 0.63%; Soybean oil 05 is 8098 yuan/ton, down 0.81%; Soybean oil 09 is 8562 yuan/ton, down 0.55%. - International price: CBOT soybean oil main contract is 52.11 cents/pound, down 2.42%. - Spot price: Shandong first - grade soybean oil is 8580 yuan/ton, down 60. The basis is 120 yuan/ton, up 56 [11]. Oilseeds Futures Prices - **Soybean Meal**: Bean meal 01 is 3137, down 20 (- 0.63%); Bean meal 05 is 2822, down 23 (- 0.81%); Bean meal 09 is 3083, down 17 (- 0.55%). - **Rapeseed Meal**: Rapeseed meal 01 is 2546, down 60 (- 2.3%); Rapeseed meal 05 is 2487, down 36 (- 1.43%); Rapeseed meal 09 is 2649, down 37 (- 1.38%). - **CBOT Soybeans**: 1031, unchanged. - **Offshore RMB**: 7.1812, up 0.0011 (0.02%) [15]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - **Soybean Meal**: M01 - 05 spread is 312, down 1; M05 - 09 is - 255, up 1; M09 - 01 is - 57, unchanged. - **Rapeseed Meal**: RM01 - 05 spread is 83, down 29; RM05 - 09 is - 163, down 16; RM09 - 01 is 80, up 45. - **Spot and Futures Spreads**: The spot spread between soybean and rapeseed meal is 484, up 10; the futures spread is 471, up 31 [16][18].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 China (Zhengzhou) International Futures Forum will be held on August 19-20, focusing on the agricultural products and industrial sectors, particularly the peanut and polyester industries, addressing the impacts of trade changes and the role of futures markets in these sectors [1][2] Group 1: Agricultural Products (Oils and Fats) Forum - The forum will discuss how the futures market can assist the oils and fats industry in managing price risks amid geopolitical tensions, extreme weather, and supply chain restructuring [1] - The futures market is seen as a tool for precise pricing and risk hedging, providing transparent price benchmarks and efficient hedging tools for enterprises [1] - Establishing a highly participatory and international peanut futures market can enhance China's market influence and pricing power [1][2] Group 2: Polyester Industry Forum - The polyester industry can utilize futures and derivative tools to effectively manage production and processing cost volatility, reducing losses from price fluctuations in raw material procurement and product inventory [2] - The use of internationalized products like PTA futures allows domestic companies to lock in processing profits in collaboration with overseas clients, enhancing the overall competitiveness of the global trade chain [2] - The forum aims to deepen cooperation with international partners in the polyester industry and promote the establishment of overseas delivery warehouses for futures products in key export destinations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic oilseed and oil futures market experienced a decline on August 15, with significant drops in prices for various commodities, particularly canola meal, which fell over 3% [1] Price Movements - Canola meal futures dropped by 3.34% to 2550.00 CNY/ton - Canola oil futures decreased by 1.79% to 9746.00 CNY/ton - Soybean meal futures fell by 1.17% to 3127.00 CNY/ton - Peanut futures declined by 1.16% to 7840.00 CNY/ton [1] Futures Market Data - The opening and closing prices for various contracts on August 15 are as follows: - Soybean oil: Opened at 8500.00 CNY, closed at 8550.00 CNY - Palm oil: Opened at 9382.00 CNY, closed at 9450.00 CNY - Canola oil: Opened at 9820.00 CNY, closed at 9924.00 CNY - Soybean meal: Opened at 3150.00 CNY, closed at 3164.00 CNY - Canola meal: Opened at 2599.00 CNY, closed at 2638.00 CNY - Peanut: Opened at 7880.00 CNY, closed at 7932.00 CNY [2] Warehouse Receipt Data - As of August 14, warehouse receipts for soybean oil decreased by 5200 contracts to 16970 contracts - Palm oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 1420 contracts - Canola oil warehouse receipts were stable at 3487 contracts [3] Additional Warehouse Data - Soybean meal warehouse receipts increased by 2000 contracts to 10925 contracts - Canola meal warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 9821 contracts - Warehouse receipts for soybean one decreased by 63 contracts to 12802 contracts - Warehouse receipts for soybean two remained unchanged at 2900 contracts [4] Basis Data - As of August 14, several contracts exhibited a 'backwardation' phenomenon where spot prices exceeded futures prices: - Canola oil: Spot price 9956.67 CNY, futures price 9924 CNY, basis 32 CNY - Canola meal: Spot price 2646.67 CNY, futures price 2638 CNY, basis 8 CNY - Soybean one: Spot price 4300 CNY, futures price 4071 CNY, basis 229 CNY - Soybean oil: Spot price 8598 CNY, futures price 8550 CNY, basis 48 CNY [5][6]