油 脂 基 差 ： 油 脂 油 料 盘 面 价 差 ： | 免责声明: | 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 | 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 | 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 | 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 | 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 | | | | | | 油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/08/18 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： NOPA月报：美国7月大豆压榨 ...

| | 1、南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）数据显示，2025年7月1-20日马来西亚棕榈油产量环比 | | --- | --- | | | 上月同期增加6.19%。2、马来西亚独立检验机构Amspec表示，马来西亚7月1-20日的棕榈油出口量 | | 行业 | 环比减少7.31%。3、Saveraa International：截至2025年7月15日，印度港口植物油总库存量已 | | | 攀升至855679公吨，较6月30日的722918公吨，在短短半个月内激增18%。 | | 信息 | | | | 蛋白粕：夜盘豆菜粕震荡下行，美国与印度尼西亚达成贸易协议，将大豆关税从32%降至19%，协 | | | 议中包含印尼采购45亿美元美国农产品（涵盖大豆、玉米和棉花）。作为美国大豆第五大进口 | | | 国，印尼此举有力提振了市场对未来美豆出口需求的信心。同时近期民间出口商向未知目的地销 | | | 售12万吨美国大豆，市场对于中美贸易关系改善预期增加。叠加美豆生柴政策下，需求仍将给美 | | | 豆价格提供支撑，美豆期价出现回升。国内供应宽松格局仍将施压上方空间，短期受进口成本支 | | | 撑预计连 ...

油脂油料产业日报 2025/06/23 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究 ...

1. Report Core Views 1.1 Oil Core Views - Palm oil: The estimated production in the producing areas is expected to increase month-on-month, and the approaching seasonal production increase adds to the supply expectation. Although the domestic port inventory is currently at a low level, as the origin quotation weakens, subsequent ship purchases are gradually emerging. On the consumption side, since the current soybean-palm oil price spread is still inverted, there is no incremental consumption, and the inventory is expected to increase and needs to find consumption by further narrowing the soybean-palm oil price spread [3]. - Soybean oil: On the supply side, as the purchased ships arrive at the port, the pressure is approaching, and the expected oil mill crushing is expected to increase accordingly. However, on the consumption side, since there is no incremental consumption to absorb the supply, the inventory is expected to enter a stocking cycle. In the future, under the expectation of a double increase in the supply of palm oil and soybean oil, the soybean-palm oil price spread may be repaired in the far - month to compete for market share in the consumption market [3]. - Rapeseed oil: Recently, due to the expected improvement in China - Canada relations, the premium of the market on policy - expected trading has been hit. In the real supply side, as the previously purchased rapeseed has now arrived at the port, the coastal rapeseed inventory is gradually decreasing. The current supply of rapeseed oil is at a stage of peak. Subsequently, as the new supply is significantly limited, the expected marginal destocking speed will accelerate from the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter. On the consumption side, due to the policy premium of rapeseed oil, the rapeseed - soybean oil price spread has always been in a range unfavorable for rapeseed oil consumption, suppressing consumption, and the consumption of rapeseed oil also remains at the level of rigid demand. Currently, there is high - inventory pressure, but the policy uncertainty provides a bottom - support for the far - month [3]. 1.2 Oilseed Core Views - Imported soybeans: In terms of ship purchases, the external market is weak, the Brazilian premium has been slightly repaired, the domestic market is relatively strong, and the far - month crushing profit has been repaired, but there is still no origin quotation for the fourth quarter. In terms of arrivals, 11.5 million tons are expected in June, 11.5 million tons in July, and 9.5 million tons in August. The supply in the second and third quarters is still relatively abundant, but there is still a gap in ship purchases for the fourth quarter [15]. - Domestic soybean meal: The supply pressure in the second - quarter carry - over and the third quarter is relatively large, which will make the spot basis continue to be weak, while the futures market is relatively strong before the speculation of the weather market. Currently, the soybean supply of oil mills is gradually recovering, the raw material inventory is continuously rising, and the soybean meal inventory remains stable at the bottom due to more downstream pick - ups. However, the subsequent pressure of concentrated soybean arrivals will still suppress the soybean meal price in the third quarter. From the demand side, after the festival, the downstream continues to execute previous contracts, and the mood of buying as needed continues. Coupled with the limited entry of secondary fattening in the Northeast region, the stocking enthusiasm is not high, and the basis will continue to weaken [15]. - Rapeseed meal: There is still pressure on the spot supply. Without a significant increase in aquaculture production, it is difficult to reduce the inventory in the future. For the far - month supply, there is an expectation of relaxation in China - Canada relations, and the futures market shows weakness first. Subsequently, the focus should be on China - Canada trade relations [15]. 2. Oil Price Information 2.1 Oil Monthly and Inter - Variety Price Spreads | Spread | Unit | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 110 | - 24 | | P 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | - 154 | 26 | | P 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | 44 | - 2 | | Y - P 01 | yuan/ton | - 440 | 58 | | Y - P 05 | yuan/ton | - 574 | 14 | | Y - P 09 | yuan/ton | - 442 | 62 | | Y 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 244 | 20 | | Y 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | - 286 | - 22 | | Y 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | 42 | 2 | | Y/M 01 | - | 2.5623 | - 0.21% | | Y/M 05 | - | 2.7466 | - 0.46% | | Y/M 09 | - | 2.6159 | - 0.19% | | OI 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 103 | - 57 | | OI 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | - 245 | 77 | | OI 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | 142 | - 20 | | OI/RM 01 | - | 3.8767 | - 1.57% | | OI/RM 05 | - | 3.8025 | - 0.92% | | OI/RM 09 | - | 3.5788 | - 1.3% | [4] 2.2 Palm Oil Spot and Futures Daily Prices | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Change Rate (Spread) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm oil 01 | yuan/ton | 8082 | - 0.05% | | Palm oil 05 | yuan/ton | 7984 | 0.1% | | Palm oil 09 | yuan/ton | 8126 | - 0.05% | | BMD Palm oil main contract | ringgit/ton | 3925 | - 0.58% | | 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou | yuan/ton | 8480 | - 40 | | 24 - degree basis in Guangzhou | yuan/ton | 390 | - 64 | | POGO | US dollars/ton | 405.233 | - 1.168 | | International soybean oil - palm oil | US dollars/ton | 14.94 | 0 | [7] 2.3 Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Daily Prices | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Change Rate (Spread) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean oil 01 | yuan/ton | 7636 | 0.64% | | Soybean oil 05 | yuan/ton | 7404 | 0% | | Soybean oil 09 | yuan/ton | 7676 | 0.65% | | CBOT Soybean oil main contract | cents/pound | 46.81 | 1.25% | | Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot | yuan/ton | 7840 | 20 | | Shandong first - grade soybean oil basis | yuan/ton | 152 | 24 | | BOHO (weekly) | US dollars/barrel | 61.652 | - 8.2296 | | Domestic first - grade soybean oil - 24 - degree palm oil | yuan/ton | - 590 | 100 | [12] 3. Oilseed Price Information 3.1 Oilseed Futures Prices | Variety | Closing Price | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean meal 01 | 3003 | 19 | 0.64% | | Soybean meal 05 | 2695 | 0 | 0% | | Soybean meal 09 | 2958 | 19 | 0.65% | | Rapeseed meal 01 | 2313 | 2 | 0.09% | | Rapeseed meal 05 | 2329 | 0 | 0% | | Rapeseed meal 09 | 2567 | 24 | 0.94% | | CBOT Yellow soybeans | 1044.75 | 0 | 0% | | Offshore RMB | 7.1769 | - 0.0116 | - 0.16% | [16][18] 3.2 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Price Spreads | Spread | Price | Today's Change | Spread | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 289 | 1 | RM01 - 05 | - 18 | 1 | | M05 - 09 | - 244 | - 1 | RM05 - 09 | - 214 | 11 | | M09 - 01 | - 45 | 0 | RM09 - 01 | 232 | - 12 | | Soybean meal spot in Rizhao | 2820 | - 20 | Soybean meal basis in Rizhao | - 119 | - 24 | | Rapeseed meal spot in Fujian | 2512 | - 11 | Rapeseed meal basis in Fujian | - 31 | 3 | | Soybean and rapeseed meal spot price spread | 308 | - 9 | Soybean and rapeseed meal futures price spread | 396 | 18 | [19]

免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/06/04 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： SPPOMA：马来西亚5月棕榈油产量环比增长3.53% 南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA)发布的数据显示，2025年5月1-31日，马来西亚棕榈油产量较4月1-30日增长 3.53%，鲜果串单产上升1.90%，出 ...

以下文章来源于广发期货研究 ，作者研究所 广发期货研究 . 推送广发期货研究所的最新报告和观点 文 | 朱迪 王泽辉 来源 | 广发期货研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 摘要 本次调研时间为5月下旬，走访了广西南宁、防城港、钦州、北海等地，涉及企业包括上游油厂及中游贸易商，主要为了探究当地及全国范围 内油脂油料市场的供需环境，及贸易政策不确定环境下，上中下游的采购、销售及备货节奏。 01 广西油脂油料市场总结 1.2油料市场情况 从本次调研情况来看，未来进口菜籽供应整体偏紧，目前油厂买船积极性差，受贸易关税相关政策影响，工厂担忧未来政策变化，谨 慎采购，少量的几条船均来自加拿大，暂未启动其他国家的菜籽采购。但国内进口颗粒粕库存相对充裕，预计3季度市场菜粕供应宽 松。8、9、10月菜粕将迎来水产旺季，或会有一波库存消化驱动，目前终端提货尚可，叠加4、5月豆粕基差高位，菜粕替代增加， 油厂菜粕库存目前偏低。而考虑到未来菜籽供应趋紧，油厂卖货并不激进，低价有挺价情绪。 巴西大豆目前陆陆续续到港中，但因前期到港衔接不佳及通关限制，油厂开机持续低位，豆粕建库过程缓慢。短期豆粕库存压力不 大，按照目前到货节奏 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - **Palm Oil**: The estimated production in the producing regions is expected to increase month-on-month, and the approaching seasonal production increase is adding to the supply expectation. Although the domestic port inventory is currently at a low level, as the origin's offer weakens, subsequent purchases are gradually emerging. On the consumption side, due to the inverted soybean-palm oil price spread, there is no incremental consumption, and the inventory is expected to increase and needs to find consumption by further narrowing the soybean-palm oil price spread [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: On the supply side, as the purchased ships arrive at the port, the pressure is approaching, and the expected oil mill crushing is also rising. However, on the consumption side, due to the lack of incremental consumption to absorb the supply, the inventory is expected to enter a cumulative cycle. In the future, under the expectation of increased supply of both palm oil and soybean oil, the soybean-palm oil price spread may be repaired in the far month to compete for market share in the consumer market [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Recently, due to the expected improvement in China-Canada relations, the premium on the policy expectation trading in the market has been hit. In terms of the actual supply, as the previously purchased rapeseed has arrived at the port, the coastal rapeseed inventory is gradually decreasing. The current supply of rapeseed oil is at a stage peak, and the expected marginal depletion rate is expected to accelerate from the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter. On the consumption side, due to the policy premium of rapeseed oil, the rapeseed-soybean oil price spread has always been in a range unfavorable for rapeseed oil consumption, suppressing consumption, and the consumption of rapeseed oil also remains at the level of rigid demand. Currently, there is high inventory pressure, but the policy uncertainty provides support for the far month [3]. - **Imported Soybeans**: After the China-US talks, the Brazilian premium quotes have been weak recently, weakening the cost support for the domestic market. There may be opportunities for purchasing imported soybeans in the fourth quarter, but considering the current crushing profit situation, the far-month crushing profit is still negative under the retained tariffs on US soybeans, so the purchasing progress is expected to be slow. In terms of arrivals, there are currently 12.5 million tons in May and 10.5 million tons in June, indicating that the near-month supply remains abundant [15]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal**: The soybean inventory at ports and oil mills continues to rise, and with the gradual increase in the operating rate and the state reserve auction, the supply in some areas has gradually recovered. The national soybean meal inventory has bottomed out and rebounded, and the spot price has been continuously lowered. On the demand side, as oil mills gradually start production to realize profits, downstream buyers have basically completed their备货, and subsequent purchases are expected to be based on the rhythm of rigid demand replenishment, with the physical inventory remaining at a low level [15]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot rapeseed converted into rapeseed meal and the inventory of rapeseed meal in East and South China are still relatively high. Although it is gradually entering the aquatic product stocking month, the inventory depletion is still difficult. The registration of rapeseed meal delivery month warehouse receipts has reached a historical peak. On the one hand, the low price of soybean meal is constantly squeezing the demand for rapeseed meal, and it is more appropriate to register warehouse receipts for delivery under the background of a negative spot basis. On the other hand, due to the expansion of the number of rapeseed meal delivery factories by the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, the position and delivery volume in the delivery month of the futures market have increased, resulting in a natural short - term trend for rapeseed meal delivery. Last Friday, an announcement on the customs import management measures for rapeseed meal was issued, indicating that the better choice for subsequent imported rapeseed is to process it in the bonded area and then re - export, and the same applies to imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil. Coupled with the uncertainty of China - Canada relations in the future, the long - term expectation for the far month is still strong [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oil Price and Spread Information - **Oil Inter - monthly and Inter - variety Spreads**: The spreads of P 1 - 5, P 5 - 9, P 9 - 1, Y - P 01, Y - P 05, Y - P 09, Y 1 - 5, Y 5 - 9, Y 9 - 1, OI 1 - 5, OI 5 - 9, OI 9 - 1, Y/M 01, Y/M 05, Y/M 09, OI/RM 01, OI/RM 05, and OI/RM 09 are provided, along with their price changes [4]. - **Palm Oil Futures and Spot Prices**: The prices of palm oil 01, palm oil 05, palm oil 09, BMD palm oil main contract, Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil, Guangzhou 24 - degree basis, POGO, and international毛豆 - 毛棕 are provided, along with their price changes [7]. - **Soybean Oil Futures and Spot Prices**: The prices of soybean oil 01, soybean oil 05, soybean oil 09, CBOT soybean oil main contract, Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot, Shandong first - grade soybean oil basis, BOHO (weekly), and domestic first - grade soybean oil - 24 - degree palm oil spread are provided, along with their price changes [12]. 2. Oilseed Information - **Oilseed Futures Prices**: The closing prices, price changes, and price change rates of soybean meal 01, soybean meal 05, soybean meal 09, rapeseed meal 01, rapeseed meal 05, rapeseed meal 09, CBOT yellow soybeans, and the offshore RMB are provided [17][19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads**: The spreads of M01 - 05, M05 - 09, M09 - 01, RM01 - 05, RM05 - 09, RM09 - 01, soybean meal Rizhao spot, soybean meal Rizhao basis, rapeseed meal Fujian spot, rapeseed meal Fujian basis, soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread, and soybean - rapeseed meal futures spread are provided, along with their price changes [20]. - **International Soybean and Rapeseed Pressing Profits**: The pressing profits of US Gulf CNF and Brazilian CNF for soybeans, as well as the pressing profits of imported Canadian rapeseed (both spot and futures) are presented [30].

| | 1、南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）数据显示，2025年5月1-10日马来西亚棕榈油单产增加 | | --- | --- | | | 20.2%，出油率增加0.4%，产量增加22.31%。2、据马来西亚棕榈油局MPOB，马来西亚4月棕榈油 | | | 出口为1102266吨，环比增长9.62%。马来西亚4月棕榈油产量为1685962吨，环比增长21.52%。马 | | 行业 | 来西亚4月棕榈油库存量为1865537吨，环比增长19.37%。 | | 信息 | | | | 蛋白粕：夜盘豆菜粕偏弱运行，近期美豆产区天气整体较为顺利，有助于大豆播种工作的推进。 | | | USDA公布本月供需报告，美豆产量及期末库存均低于预估，报告数据利多。并且中美双方在瑞士 | | | 进行会谈并取得实质性进展，因此美豆出口前景得到改善，美豆期价回升至贸易关税之前水平。 | | | 国内方面，中美关税取得进展国内进口美国大豆有望增加，对国内豆粕行情形成阶段性利空。近 | | | 期国内油厂开机大幅回升，供应偏紧情况得到明显缓解，豆粕供应快速增加预期较强。二季度国 | | | 内原料大豆、豆粕供应料充足，将继续施 ...

油脂油料产业日报 2025/05/07 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观 点、结论和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在 不发出通知的情形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不 能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许 可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东 亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究 ...