Market Overview - The refining and trading sector experienced a decline of 0.19% on September 29, with Compton leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3862.53, up 0.9%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13479.43, up 2.05% [1] Stock Performance - Daqing Huake (000985) saw a significant increase of 10.00%, closing at 19.91 with a trading volume of 59,900 shares and a turnover of 117 million yuan [1] - Other notable gainers included Bohui Co. (300839) with a 4.42% increase, Baocao Co. (002476) up 2.10%, and Maohua Shihua (000637) rising by 1.95% [1] - Conversely, Compton (603798) led the declines with a drop of 3.70%, closing at 16.64, alongside Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493) down 3.24% [2] Capital Flow - The refining and trading sector saw a net outflow of 66.36 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 2.50 million yuan [2] - The main stocks with significant capital inflow included Daqing Huake with 39.99 million yuan and China Petroleum (601857) with 35.17 million yuan [3] - Notably, Baocao Co. experienced a net inflow of 20.54 million yuan from institutional investors, despite a net outflow from retail investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market indices opened lower but turned positive, with the China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index rebounding, indicating a potential recovery in the petrochemical sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index rose approximately 0.4%, with leading stocks including Wanhua Chemical, Yara International, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Yangnong Chemical [1] - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) followed the upward trend of the index [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - Tianfeng Securities believes that the integration, scaling, and intensification of domestic industrial chains have established comparative advantages in the medium to long term [1] - The economic development in ASEAN and Africa may lead to a rapid increase in demand for chemicals, while traditional refining centers in the US, EU, Japan, and South Korea are gradually exiting or pausing expansion in the petrochemical industry [1] - Domestic consumption appears to have emerged from a low point, with factors driving chemical product demand and export growth expected to remain strong despite short-term tariff disturbances [1] Group 3: Sector Composition - According to the Shenwan secondary industry classification, the top three sectors in the China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index are refining and trading (27.12%), chemical products (23.87%), and agricultural chemicals (19.75%) [1] - These sectors are expected to benefit significantly from policies aimed at reducing competition, restructuring, and eliminating outdated production capacity [1]

Market Overview - The refining and trading sector increased by 0.72% on September 26, with Hengyi Petrochemical leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3828.11, down 0.65%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13209.0, down 1.76% [1] Stock Performance - Hengyi Petrochemical (000703) closed at 6.83, up 6.89% with a trading volume of 716,400 shares and a turnover of 495 million [1] - Tongkun Co., Ltd. (601233) closed at 14.95, up 6.03% with a trading volume of 855,000 shares and a turnover of 1.29 billion [1] - Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493) closed at 9.89, up 4.99% with a trading volume of 758,500 shares and a turnover of 743 million [1] - Other notable stocks include Daqing Huake (000985) up 3.90% and Hengli Petrochemical (600346) up 3.48% [1] Capital Flow - The refining and trading sector saw a net inflow of 37.72 million from main funds, while speculative funds had a net inflow of 72.77 million [2] - Retail investors experienced a net outflow of 110 million [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Hengli Petrochemical (600346) had a main fund net inflow of 70.19 million, with a retail net outflow of 76.95 million [3] - Hengyi Petrochemical (000703) saw a main fund net inflow of 66.45 million, with a retail net outflow of 68.47 million [3] - China Petroleum (601857) had a main fund net inflow of 65.63 million, with a retail net inflow of 18.97 million [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective decline, while the petrochemical industry index rose, indicating a divergence in sector performance amidst broader market challenges [1]. Industry Summary - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's petrochemical industry is expected to see accelerated capacity expansion for basic products, but the growth in terminal demand is insufficient, leading to a "involution" competition that results in low profitability [1]. - The current phase is viewed as a strategic window for the global petrochemical industry chain restructuring, with expectations for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period to focus on high-quality transformation and upgrading through measures such as industry self-discipline, policy guidance for phasing out backward capacity, and enhancing supply chains [1]. Company Summary - Key stocks in the petrochemical sector, such as Hengyi Petrochemical, Xin Fengming, and Tongkun Co., saw significant price increases, with Hengyi Petrochemical hitting the daily limit and Xin Fengming rising over 9% [1]. - The petrochemical ETF (159731) and its related funds closely track the petrochemical industry index, which is dominated by refining and trading (27.12%), chemical products (23.87%), and agricultural chemical products (19.75%), positioning them to benefit from policies aimed at reducing involution and optimizing structure [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recovery of risk appetite in the market and its implications for high-dividend assets, suggesting a focus on cyclical and potential dividend stocks in the near future [5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market's risk appetite recovery is a short-term constraint on the relative returns of high-dividend assets [5]. - The third batch of national subsidies is being distributed, but some regions still face challenges in accessing these funds, indicating a gradual release of liquidity in the subsidy system [4]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - It is recommended to focus on cyclical dividend stocks related to "anti-involution" such as chemicals and steel, as well as potential dividend stocks in sectors like railways, highways, liquor, and food processing [5]. - The scarcity of national subsidy resources may lead brands to shift from broad coverage to targeted investments, particularly in mid-to-high-end products, which could enhance overall brand pricing and profitability [4]. Group 3: Dividend Yield Rankings - The top five sectors by dividend yield over the past 12 months include: - White goods: 4.98% - Coal mining: 5.19% - Joint-stock banks II: 5.02% - Refining and trading: 4.63% - Rural commercial banks II: 4.66% [6]. Group 4: Performance of Dividend Indices - The performance of various dividend indices from September 11 to September 24, 2025, shows fluctuations, with the overall trend indicating a mixed response in the market [6][8]. - The article provides a detailed overview of the performance of different dividend indices, highlighting the importance of dividend stability and cash flow in investment strategies [10][11].

Market Overview - On September 25, the refining and trading sector rose by 0.05% compared to the previous trading day, with Donghua Energy leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3853.3, down 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13445.9, up 0.67% [1] Stock Performance - Key stocks in the refining and trading sector showed varied performance: - Donghua Energy (002221) closed at 9.10, up 5.45% with a trading volume of 480,700 shares and a turnover of 427 million yuan [1] - Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493) closed at 9.42, up 1.51% with a trading volume of 255,000 shares and a turnover of 240 million yuan [1] - China Petroleum (601857) closed at 8.14, up 0.12% with a trading volume of 1,011,100 shares and a turnover of 823 million yuan [1] - China Petrochemical (600028) closed at 5.35, down 0.19% with a trading volume of 894,600 shares and a turnover of 478 million yuan [1] Capital Flow - The refining and trading sector experienced a net outflow of 109 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 1.1 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for key stocks indicated mixed trends, with some stocks attracting significant retail interest despite overall outflows [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive performance of the petrochemical industry index, with a notable increase of approximately 0.55%, driven by stocks such as Tongcheng New Materials reaching the daily limit [1] - The third China Petroleum and Petrochemical Carbon Neutral Technology Exchange Conference released the "White Paper on Low-Carbon Development in the Petroleum and Petrochemical Industry," indicating a clearer low-carbon transformation path under the "dual carbon" goals, with significant breakthroughs in key technologies for low energy consumption and low-cost carbon neutrality [1] - According to China International Capital Corporation (CICC), the ongoing focus on "anti-involution" at the policy level is expected to stabilize the profit bottom line in industries previously affected by supply-demand imbalances and low-price competition, leading to an optimized competitive landscape for high-quality development in the long term [1] Group 2 - The petrochemical ETF (159731) and its linked funds (017855/017856) closely track the China Petrochemical Industry Index, which is primarily composed of three sectors: refining and trading (27.12%), chemical products (23.87%), and agricultural chemical products (19.75%), all of which are expected to benefit from policies aimed at reducing competition and eliminating outdated production capacity [1]

Market Overview - The refining and trading sector increased by 0.17% on September 24, with Guangju Energy leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3853.64, up 0.83%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13356.14, up 1.8% [1] Stock Performance - Guangju Energy (000096) closed at 11.57, up 3.40% with a trading volume of 101,500 shares and a turnover of 116 million yuan [1] - Baoli International (300135) closed at 4.59, up 3.38% with a trading volume of 690,400 shares and a turnover of 314 million yuan [1] - Tongkun Co. (601233) closed at 14.11, up 3.14% with a trading volume of 260,000 shares and a turnover of 362 million yuan [1] - Other notable stocks include Wanbangda (300055) up 2.50%, Guochuang Gaoxin (002377) up 2.35%, and Kangjindun (603798) up 2.15% [1] Capital Flow - The refining and trading sector saw a net inflow of 132 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 118 million yuan [2] - The main capital flow data indicates that Baoli International had a net inflow of 39.09 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 41.85 million yuan [3] - China Petroleum (601857) also saw a net inflow of 33.19 million yuan from institutional investors, despite a net outflow from retail investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - Tongkun Co., Ltd. has shown a mixed performance in stock price and financial metrics, with a notable increase in stock price year-to-date but a decline in recent trading days [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Tongkun Co., Ltd. reported operating revenue of 44.158 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.41% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 1.097 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.93% [2]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the A-share listing amount to 3.203 billion yuan, with 341 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Stock Market Activity - As of September 24, 2023, Tongkun's stock price was 13.96 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 33.571 billion yuan [1]. - The stock has increased by 19.31% year-to-date, but has seen a decline of 3.39% over the last five trading days and 4.84% over the last twenty days [1]. - The stock experienced a net outflow of 810,800 yuan in principal funds, with significant buying and selling activity from large orders [1]. Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders was 70,600, a decrease of 0.22% from the previous period [2]. - The average number of circulating shares per person increased by 0.22% to 33,944 shares [2]. - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and Southern CSI 500 ETF, with notable changes in their holdings [3].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a strategy based on industry rotation and thematic ETFs, recommending sectors such as agriculture, film and cinema, and aerospace equipment for the upcoming week [2][3]. - The strategy has shown a cumulative net return of approximately -0.21% for the period from September 15 to September 19, 2025, with an excess return of about 0.16% compared to the CSI 300 ETF [3][11]. - Since October 14, 2024, the strategy has achieved a cumulative return of approximately 24.91%, outperforming the CSI 300 ETF by about 6.36% [3]. Strategy Update - For the week of September 22, 2025, the model recommends increasing positions in the following ETFs: Grain ETF, Film ETF, Industrial Mother Machine ETF, and Oil & Gas ETF, while continuing to hold Aerospace ETF and Green Electricity ETF [2][10]. - The report includes specific ETFs and their respective weights, indicating a focus on sectors like agriculture (46.77% in Grain ETF) and film (45.35% in Film ETF) [10]. Performance Tracking - The report details the performance of various ETFs over the past week, highlighting that the average return of the ETF portfolio was -0.37%, while the CSI 300 ETF had a return of -0.21% [11]. - The report also notes that certain ETFs, such as the Green Electricity ETF and Aerospace ETF, continue to be held despite recent performance fluctuations [11].