丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] 2025 年第 37 周计算机行业周报： Qwen3-Next 开源发布有望加速 AI 应用落地 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 上周计算机板块在此前经历大幅回调后反弹，上涨 3.47%，在长江一级行业中排名第 6 位，两 市成交额占比为 7.79%，算力相关标的活跃。上周交通运输部办公厅印发《交通强国建设试点 申报方向指引（2025 年）》的通知；商务部决定就美国被调查措施启动反歧视调查。本周建议 关注：1）中国推理算力产业链，重点推荐国内 AI 芯片领军寒武纪；2）阿里云产业链；3）云 服务厂商；4）IDC，重点关注于腾讯、阿里、字节等大厂合作的 IDC。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 陈耀文 SAC：S0490520030004 SAC：S0490525070002 SFC：BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 上周大盘震荡上行，上证综指周五报收 3870.60 点，整体上涨 1.52%。计算机板块在此前经历 大幅回调后反 ...

资金面上看，两市主力资金全天净流出374.26亿元，今日有11个行业主力资金净流入，机械设备行业主 力资金净流入规模居首，该行业今日上涨2.06%，全天净流入资金55.08亿元，其次是计算机行业，日涨 幅为2.06%，净流入资金为49.45亿元。 主力资金净流出的行业有20个，有色金属行业主力资金净流出规模居首，全天净流出资金103.35亿元， 其次是电力设备行业，净流出资金为89.13亿元，净流出资金较多的还有银行、非银金融、医药生物等 行业。 农林牧渔行业今日下跌1.29%，全天主力资金净流出17.07亿元，该行业所属的个股共105只，今日上涨 的有39只；下跌的有61只，跌停的有2只。以资金流向数据进行统计，该行业资金净流入的个股有26 只，净流入资金居首的是诺普信，今日净流入资金4743.84万元，紧随其后的是中宠股份、罗牛山，净 流入资金分别为1829.77万元、1554.94万元。农林牧渔行业资金净流出个股中，资金净流出超5000万元 的有8只，净流出资金居前的有牧原股份、温氏股份、傲农生物，净流出资金分别为3.95亿元、1.66亿 元、1.66亿元。 农林牧渔行业资金流入榜 | 代码 | 简称 ...

沪指9月16日上涨0.04%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有21个，涨幅居前的行业为综合、机械设备， 涨幅分别为3.62%、2.06%。计算机行业位居今日涨幅榜第三。跌幅居前的行业为农林牧渔、银行，跌 幅分别为1.29%、1.15%。 资金面上看，两市主力资金全天净流出374.26亿元，今日有11个行业主力资金净流入，机械设备行业主 力资金净流入规模居首，该行业今日上涨2.06%，全天净流入资金55.08亿元，其次是计算机行业，日涨 幅为2.06%，净流入资金为49.45亿元。 | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主力资金流量（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600410 | 华胜天成 | 10.03 | 30.96 | 199468.33 | | 603019 | 中科曙光 | 8.80 | 10.21 | 163628.28 | | 300085 | 银之杰 | 7.05 | 14.16 | 42947.03 | | 300803 | 指南针 | 6.22 | 8.98 | 40495.12 | | 002261 | 拓维信息 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.04% on September 16, with 21 out of the 28 sectors experiencing gains. The top-performing sectors were the comprehensive sector and machinery equipment, with increases of 3.62% and 2.06% respectively [1] - The sectors that saw declines included agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, which fell by 1.29%, and banking, which decreased by 1.15% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The net outflow of capital from the two markets was 37.426 billion yuan, with 11 sectors experiencing net inflows. The machinery equipment sector led with a net inflow of 5.508 billion yuan, followed by the computer sector, which also saw a 2.06% increase and a net inflow of 4.945 billion yuan [1] - Conversely, 20 sectors experienced net outflows, with the non-ferrous metals sector leading the outflow at 10.335 billion yuan, followed by the power equipment sector with an outflow of 8.913 billion yuan. Other sectors with significant outflows included banking, non-bank financials, and pharmaceutical biology [1] Comprehensive Sector Performance - The comprehensive sector increased by 3.62% with a net inflow of 14.5 million yuan. Out of 16 stocks in this sector, 13 rose while 2 fell. The stocks with the highest net inflows included Dongyangguang with 206 million yuan, followed by Zhangzhou Development and Zhejiang Agricultural Shares with net inflows of 21.5552 million yuan and 9.8091 million yuan respectively [2] - The stocks with the highest net outflows in the comprehensive sector were Yuegui Shares, Nanjing New Hundred, and Te Li A, with outflows of 69.481 million yuan, 14.8845 million yuan, and 10.1847 million yuan respectively [2] Comprehensive Sector Capital Flow Ranking - The top stocks in the comprehensive sector based on capital flow included: - Dongyangguang: +7.37%, 4.42% turnover, 206.2576 million yuan inflow - Zhangzhou Development: +0.85%, 4.27% turnover, 21.5552 million yuan inflow - Zhejiang Agricultural Shares: +1.82%, 1.65% turnover, 9.8091 million yuan inflow - Other notable stocks included Zongyi Shares, Yatai Group, and Hongmian Shares, all showing positive performance and varying levels of capital inflow [2]

主力资金净流出的行业有20个，有色金属行业主力资金净流出规模居首，全天净流出资金103.35亿元， 其次是电力设备行业，净流出资金为89.13亿元，净流出资金较多的还有银行、非银金融、医药生物等 行业。 沪指9月16日上涨0.04%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有21个，涨幅居前的行业为综合、机械设备， 涨幅分别为3.62%、2.06%。商贸零售行业今日上涨1.96%。跌幅居前的行业为农林牧渔、银行，跌幅分 别为1.29%、1.15%。 资金面上看，两市主力资金全天净流出374.26亿元，今日有11个行业主力资金净流入，机械设备行业主 力资金净流入规模居首，该行业今日上涨2.06%，全天净流入资金55.08亿元，其次是计算机行业，日涨 幅为2.06%，净流入资金为49.45亿元。 | 600128 | 苏豪弘业 | 1.00 | 2.33 | 4.28 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600710 | 苏美达 | 0.30 | 0.71 | -1.44 | | 600628 | 新世界 | 0.91 | 1.41 | -68.22 | | 002277 | 友阿股份 | ...

Market Overview - The two markets experienced a net outflow of 14.52 billion yuan, with 46 stocks seeing a net inflow exceeding 200 million yuan, led by Zhongke Shuguang with a net inflow of 2.045 billion yuan [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.04% [1] Industry Performance - Among the 13 industries with net inflows, the machinery equipment sector had the highest net inflow of 5.596 billion yuan, with an index increase of 2.06% [1] - The computer industry also saw a net inflow of 5.464 billion yuan, with a similar index increase of 2.06% [1] - Other notable sectors with net inflows included retail and automotive [1] Individual Stock Performance - The average increase for stocks with a net inflow exceeding 200 million yuan was 8.02%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [2] - Stocks that saw significant net inflows included: - Zhongke Shuguang: 2.045 billion yuan, closing price 111.48 yuan, up 8.80% [3] - Huasheng Tiancai: 1.895 billion yuan, closing price 21.51 yuan, up 10.03% [3] - Gongxiao Daji: 1.386 billion yuan, closing price 2.93 yuan, up 10.15% [3] - The electronics, computer, and machinery equipment sectors had the highest concentration of stocks with significant net inflows [2] Net Outflow Stocks - The stocks with the largest net outflows included: - Minsheng Bank: -1.347 billion yuan, closing price 4.13 yuan, down 1.43% [5] - Xinyi Sheng: -1.303 billion yuan, closing price 345.75 yuan, down 1.30% [5] - CITIC Securities: -1.300 billion yuan, closing price 29.28 yuan, down 1.05% [5] - Other sectors with notable net outflows included non-ferrous metals and banking [1][5]

Group 1 - The certainty of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is increasing, leading to an appreciation of the RMB and an accelerated inflow of foreign capital into Chinese assets [1][2] - Domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth, particularly in the real estate sector, are expected to improve the external environment for equity assets, suggesting a bullish outlook [1][2] - Recommended sectors include media, computer technology, electrical equipment, non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, food and beverage, and pharmaceutical biology [1][2] Group 2 - In the bond market, the recent marginal tightening of the funding environment has not significantly impacted the resilience of the equity market, with expectations of continued support from the central bank [2] - The basic economic indicators show a continuation of weak fundamentals, but the central bank's actions indicate a commitment to maintaining liquidity [2] - The A-share market is expected to benefit from the anticipated interest rate cuts and the favorable external environment [2] Group 3 - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve is likely to create a favorable financial condition for non-U.S. markets, including Hong Kong stocks [3] - Weak demand for crude oil is projected for 2025, with ongoing supply releases putting downward pressure on oil prices [4] - The anticipated easing of financial conditions before the Federal Reserve's rate cut is expected to positively influence gold performance [5]

行情回顾及主要观点： 上周A股市场整体呈现上涨态势，主要指数均实现反弹：上证综指涨1.5%，深证成指涨2.6%，创业板50 指数涨1.9%，科创50涨5.5%，显示出成长风格的强劲表现。交易面，上周A股日均成交额在2.3万亿元 左右，较前一周小幅降温。市场热点在机器人、固态电池、芯片、黄金、算力硬件、CPO、PCB、液冷 服务器、油气、影视院线等板块间快速轮动，呈现持续活跃与回落交替的特征。建议关注科技成长类资 产与周期行业轮动机会，如受益于电池、光伏、智能驾驶新政的新能源板块。 创业板50指数（399673.SZ）权重行业观点： 工业和信息化部等八部门近日印发了《汽车行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026 年）》。《工作方案》 提出，2025年，力争实现全年汽车销量3230万辆左右，同比增长约 3%，其中新能源汽车销量1550万辆 左右，同比增长约20%；汽车出口保持稳定增长；汽车制造业增加值同比增长6%左右。2026年，行业 运行保持稳中向好发展态势，产业规模和质量效益进一步提升。涵盖32%新能源光伏权重的创业板50指 数值得长期关注。 创业板为主要"三创（创新、创造、创意）四新（新技术、新产业、新业态、 ...

据天眼查APP显示，协创数据技术股份有限公司成立于2005年11月18日。注册资本34612.0769万人民 币。（数据宝） （文章来源：证券时报网） 数据宝统计，截至14:25，协创数据成交额49.44亿元，创上市以来新高。最新股价上涨10.96%，换手率 9.69%。上一交易日该股全天成交额为31.27亿元。 ...

Group 1: Industry Index Pool Construction - The report outlines the construction of an industry index pool that combines investability and representativeness, focusing on passive products tracking strong industry attributes [10][12]. - Since 2020, the scale of industry ETFs has experienced explosive growth, increasing from 85.8 billion yuan at the end of 2019 to over 310 billion yuan by the end of 2020, and approaching 900 billion yuan by August 2025 [10]. - The report categorizes various industry ETFs, highlighting that TMT, financial real estate, and pharmaceutical sectors have surpassed 100 billion yuan in ETF scale [10]. Group 2: Economic Prosperity Investment Practices - The report discusses the calculation of expected ROE growth for industries based on analysts' profit forecasts, comparing two fiscal years (FY1 and FY2) [20][21]. - It emphasizes that the FY2 grouping shows stronger monotonicity in performance compared to FY1, indicating better returns for the former [23][24]. - The backtesting period for the economic prosperity factor spans from January 1, 2018, to September 12, 2025, with a focus on marginal changes in industry index prosperity [27]. Group 3: Economic Trend Resonance Strategy - The economic trend resonance strategy combines fundamental marginal improvements with capital consensus, utilizing trend factors to quantify market sentiment [36][38]. - The constructed economic trend resonance portfolio has achieved an annualized return of 12.33% since 2018, outperforming the CSI 800 index by 11.13% [40][42]. - The portfolio's monthly excess return rate stands at 64%, with a profit-loss ratio of 1.30 [45]. Group 4: Economic Trend and Crowding Avoidance Strategy - The strategy integrates economic trend analysis with crowding avoidance to mitigate risks associated with overheated trading [49]. - The three-dimensional strategy has yielded an annualized return of 12.80% since 2018, exceeding the CSI 800 index by 11.60% [52][54]. - The portfolio's monthly excess return rate is 62%, with a profit-loss ratio of 1.47 [57]. Group 5: Current Industry Characteristics - As of August 2025, the report identifies industries that align with the economic trend resonance and crowding avoidance strategy, including the transportation index, home appliances, livestock, media, and oil and gas sectors [60]. - The expected growth rates for these sectors range from 1.1% to 9.6%, with varying levels of crowding and valuation metrics [60].