宏 观 研 究 海外周度观察 2025 年 05 月 18 日 美国经济：关税冲击的监测框架 ——关税"压力测试"系列之八 截止到 5 月中旬，美国进口商品的平均关税税率已经降至 16%左右，但仍处历史高位。目前已 进入数据验证期，如何观察美国的"抢进口"动能和"滞胀"压力？本文提出了一个监测框架。 热点思考：美国经济：关税冲击的监测框架 一、关税冲击进入数据"验证期"，如何监测其经济影响？三大维度：贸易、价格、风险偏好 关税冲突虽有缓和，但美国税率仍处历史高位。5 月 12 日以来，美国对华进口平均关税税率降 至 42%，总体平均税率降至 16%，但仍处于历史高位。耶鲁大学预算实验室的测算认为，该关 税或使美国 GDP 下降 0.65 个点，通胀上升 1.7 个点。所以，"滞胀"是基准假设。 关税对美国经济的传导，可从贸易（数量）、价格、风险偏好三个维度进行监测。1）贸易方面， 关税冲击体现为美国进口先增后减（抢进口）、出口受抑，并影响国内需求；2）价格方面，关 税将由进口价格传导至生产和消费价格，抑制实际消费需求；3）风险偏好方面，关税推升政策 不确定性，影响金融压力、美元指数，进而降低居民消费意愿、企业 ...

对于出口企业的相关应对措施，林龙安有以下几点建议： 一是持续优化市场布局。一方面积极开拓新兴市场，如东盟、拉美、中东等，降低对美国单一市场的依 赖，可通过建立海外销售网络和参加国际展会的方式，提升市场占有率。比如，部分企业通过在东盟国 家设立销售办事处，直接面向当地市场，取得了良好的市场反馈。另一方面，重视国内市场，实现"外 贸+内销"的战略转型，将部分出口产品转内销，满足国内消费升级需求。 二是产业升级与创新。企业要通过加大技术创新投入，提升产品附加值，降低对价格竞争的依赖，增强 产品的刚性需求。比如，一些企业通过引入人工智能、智能制造等前沿技术，优化生产流程，提高生产 效率，提升产品竞争力。 经济观察报 记者 老盈盈 5月18日，大湾区进出口商业总会会长林龙安在"2025清华五道口全球金融论坛"上接受媒体采访时表 示，尽管中美暂缓关税政策落地，但美方政策在90天后仍然存在"不确定性"，依赖单一市场的出口模式 不可持续；此外，企业出海合规成本在不断攀升，需提升规则应对能力，这方面可善用香港的国际化专 业服务体系来进行支撑。 基于当前形势，林龙安对下半年大湾区外贸走势持谨慎乐观的态度。 三是强化供应链管理。林 ...

Group 1 - The total import and export value of Shanghai to ASEAN reached 143.52 billion yuan in the first quarter, with a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [1] - Shanghai Jingrong Technology Co., Ltd. achieved an export order growth rate of over 10% through continuous transformation in smart, digital, and green practices [1] - The customs authority simplified the certificate of origin process for Shanghai Jingrong, reducing time and labor costs for the company [1] Group 2 - A direct shipping route from Shanghai Port to Cambodia's Kampot Port was opened, successfully delivering nearly 10,000 tons of equipment and vehicles within the first month [2] - The direct route reduces maritime transport time by 50%, taking only 8 days to complete the journey [2] - This new shipping line enhances trade cooperation between China and Cambodia, contributing to regional supply chain stability [2]

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of the recent adjustments in tariffs between the US and China, particularly focusing on the urgency faced by Chinese exporters to fulfill orders from American clients within a limited timeframe of two and a half months [1][3] - The US has canceled a total of 91% of tariffs imposed on Chinese goods since April 8, while retaining 10% of tariffs, leading to a current effective tariff rate of 30% on Chinese products due to previous tariffs related to the fentanyl issue [1][4] - The urgency is particularly felt by businesses like those in Yiwu, where a significant portion of their revenue comes from exports to the US, with one business reporting that 50% of its sales are to American clients [1][3] Group 2 - Companies are experiencing a surge in inquiries and orders following the tariff adjustments, with one company reporting an order volume of approximately 2 million RMB from three clients who resumed normal operations [1][4] - Despite the positive response from some clients, other businesses are still facing challenges as many American customers remain cautious and are observing the situation before placing new orders [6] - The article highlights a shift in focus for some companies towards domestic sales and adapting to new market conditions, as the remaining tariffs still pose challenges for seasonal products [6]

记者16日从乌鲁木齐海关获悉，前4个月，新疆与216个国家和地区产生贸易往来。同期，新疆对中亚五 国进出口下降7.4%，反映出当前中国各省区市拓展中亚市场的竞争不断加大。 前4个月，新疆对马来西亚、印度尼西亚、泰国、越南等RCEP成员国贸易往来展现出较强活力，进出口 同比增长96.4%；对非洲、西亚、拉美、中东欧地区进出口增长强劲，分别同比增长70.4%、104.8%、 96%、65%。 前4个月，新疆首要贸易方式为一般贸易，进出口同比增长75.6%，占同期新疆外贸进出口总值的 52.2%。值得注意的是，新疆民营企业为第一外贸主体，进出口同比增长23.3%，占同期新疆外贸进出 口总值的95.1%。 中新社乌鲁木齐5月16日电 (胡嘉琛)据乌鲁木齐海关统计，今年前4个月，新疆外贸进出口总值1658.6亿 元(人民币，下同)，同比增长20.2%。4月，新疆外贸进出口总值577.1亿元，同比增长30.4%，单月外贸 规模连续两个月超500亿元。 前4个月，中国(新疆)自由贸易试验区进出口699.2亿元，同比增长26.4%，拉动新疆外贸增长10.6个百分 点。喀什、霍尔果斯、阿拉山口、乌鲁木齐4个综合保税区合计进出口 ...

Core Insights - Hubei Province's total import and export value reached 260.78 billion RMB in the first four months of the year, marking a year-on-year increase of 27.5% [1] - Exports amounted to 189.65 billion RMB, growing by 36.6%, while imports were 71.13 billion RMB, with an increase of 8.4% [1] Group 1: Trade Performance - Wuhan City accounted for 138.81 billion RMB of the province's total trade, representing 53.2% of Hubei's import and export value [1] - The number of foreign trade enterprises in Hubei exceeded 7,000, an increase of 527 compared to the same period last year [3] - Private enterprises contributed significantly to trade, with a total import and export value of 185.99 billion RMB, up 32.1%, making up 71.3% of the province's total [3] Group 2: Trade Partners and Market Diversification - Hubei's trade with ASEAN and EU saw substantial growth, with increases of 71.9% and 43.2% respectively [3] - Trade with countries involved in the "Belt and Road" initiative grew by 32.2% [3] - Emerging markets in Latin America and the Middle East also experienced growth in trade, with increases of 15.2% and 36.3% respectively [3] Group 3: Product Categories - Mechanical and electrical products accounted for over 50% of exports, with a total export value of 96.75 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 23.9% [4] - Key exports included computers and components, mobile phones, integrated circuits, and auto parts, with respective growth rates of 10.1%, 20.6%, 7%, and 24.9% [4] - Imports of mechanical and electrical products reached 30.43 billion RMB, growing by 31.5%, while bulk commodity imports totaled 22.24 billion RMB, showing a decline of 6.7% [4]

随着"一带一路"倡议向纵深推进，和田地区考察团赴乌兹别克斯坦和哈萨克斯坦考察，外贸企业面临诸 多机遇与挑战。为支持企业开展对外贸易，国家税务总局和田地区税务局以外贸企业需求为导向，持续 优化服务举措，落实落细税费优惠政策，助力企业走出国门，开拓海外市场。 筑牢风险防线 助力企业稳健前行 2025年4月下旬，新疆京洛集团有限公司作为洛浦县企业代表随和田地区考察团赴乌兹别克斯坦和哈萨 克斯坦考察，与当地企业在进出口业务、园区规划等方面达成合作。 坚守合规底线 护航发展行稳致远 洛浦追梦电子商务有限公司是和田地区重点电商企业，成立于2021年，主营农副、化妆、洗护、文创等 系列产品，已打造8个注册品牌与13个自主知识产权产品，是一家供销一体的电商企业。 "我们企业作为和田地区考察团赴乌兹别克斯坦和哈萨克斯坦企业代表之一，本次成功与乌兹别克斯坦 塔什干州Sure step商贸有限公司、uzum公司等签订意向合作协议，拟在乌兹别克斯坦成立合资公司共同 发展跨境电子商务平台，成功扩展了跨境电商领域。"洛浦追梦电子商务有限公司法人兼行政总监热米 莱·乃比江介绍。 为助力企业健康发展，国家税务总局和田地区税务局开展专题培训， ...

中美贸易战迎来了一次短暂的休整，美国对中国的关税降幅达到30%，中国对美国的关税降幅为10%。这看似双方各自后退一步的调整，背后却蕴藏着复杂 的博弈，各方的得失需要深刻剖析。 从结果来看，中国无疑是这一轮调整中的最大赢家。美国曾要求中国不要对关税进行报复，而中国不仅反击，而且迫使美国最终做出妥协。然而，这并不是 终结，只是中场的短暂停歇。尽管风险表面上有所下降，但实际上，为什么这么说，接下来会有更详细的解读。 美国对中国的关税大幅下降，许多人以为中国为此付出了某种代价，但实际上，情况正好相反，几乎没有任何筹码被交换。美国在与其他国家的谈判中常常 要求"购买美国商品"和"增加对美投资"等条件，而在这次的联合声明中，这些内容完全没有出现。此前协议中常见的"中国增加自美采购、扩大对美直接投 资"等提法也消失了。 再来看美国的库存情况，消费品库存几乎见底，考虑到订单生产和运输的周期，圣诞节订单最迟需要在5月下单。因此，留给美国商人购买中国商品、为圣 诞补货的时间已经不多了。 事实上，关税对美国通胀的影响需要一定的时间才能显现。短期内，低油价和抢进口的需求推动了中美贸易，反而在短期内推高了双方的贸易量。另一方 面，美国 ...

本报讯(记者宋晓华)据南京海关统计，今年前4个月，江苏省货物贸易进出口总值1.85万亿元，较去年同 期增长5.7%，增幅较全国高3.3个百分点，占同期我国进出口总值的13.1%。其中，出口1.23万亿元，增 长10.3%；进口6157.9亿元，下降2.5%。 一般贸易进出口占比近六成，成为前4个月我省外贸进出口最突出特点。我省以一般贸易方式进出口 1.05万亿元，增长4.7%，占全省进出口总值的57%。同期，以加工贸易方式进出口5817.5亿元，增长 5.6%。以保税物流方式进出口1956.2亿元，增长12.7%。 外资企业进出口比重提升。我省外商投资企业进出口8642.5亿元，增长7.2%，占比较去年同期提升0.7 个百分点至46.8%。民营企业进出口8276.3亿元，增长2.7%，拉动全省进出口增速1.2个百分点，占全省 外贸进出口的44.8%。国有企业进出口1547.9亿元，增长14.5%，占8.4%。 对东盟贸易快速增长。我省对共建"一带一路"国家进出口9033.7亿元，增长9.6%，拉动全省进出口增速 4.5个百分点，占比较上年同期提升1.8个百分点至48.9%。其中，对东盟进出口3365.6亿元、 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's foreign trade shows resilience with a total import and export value of 14.14 trillion yuan in the first four months of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 2.4% [1] Group 1: Trade Performance - In April, China's total foreign trade value reached 3.84 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.6%, with exports at 2.27 trillion yuan (up 9.3%) and imports at 1.57 trillion yuan (up 0.8%) [2] - The trend for imports and exports improved from a decline of 2.2% in January to a slight increase of 1.3% in the first quarter, culminating in a growth of 2.4% in the first four months [2] - Private enterprises accounted for 49.2% of the total import and export enterprises, with a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, contributing to 56.9% of the total trade value and driving a growth of 3.7 percentage points in overall trade [2] Group 2: Product and Market Diversification - High-tech product exports grew by 7.4% in the first four months, making up nearly 20% of total exports and contributing 1.3 percentage points to overall export growth [2] - Exports to regions outside the U.S. maintained double-digit growth, with a 13% increase in April, while exports to ASEAN exceeded 20% [3] - Trade with the EU, China's second-largest trading partner, totaled 1.78 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1.1% and accounting for 12.6% of China's total foreign trade [4] Group 3: Support for Foreign Trade - Various policies have been implemented to support foreign trade, including enhancing public information services, expanding export credit insurance, and increasing financial support for foreign trade enterprises [5] - Recent high-level economic talks between China and the U.S. have provided more certainty to the economic relationship, potentially benefiting trade dynamics [6]