冬天的欧洲，总爱以街灯的温度来丈量形势。2024年冬，一度每兆瓦时天然气价飙到150欧元，灯还亮着，厂房却暗了。德国工业产值下滑到—8%，法国经 济停在原地，北海的风更冷。回溯到2022年，德国和法国曾试图保住与俄罗斯的能源联系，可压力自彼岸涌来，北溪管道在同年遭爆炸，欧盟的算盘被打 翻。此后的一年，美国向欧洲的液化天然气出口直接翻倍，2023年再创新高；船一艘艘来，账却越来越重。欧洲原以为击败俄罗斯可以分汤，谁知一锅汤里 多了一只看不见的手，在供给与价格之间稳稳压住秤砣。 看不见的秤砣 秤砣的主人不是战争一线的任何一方，而是全球供应链的中心。中国制造业在2023年占据全球约三成的产能，这不是抽象数字，是每一块电池、每一片光 伏、每一台机床在集装箱里说话。2024年欧盟拿出1100亿欧元搞绿色转型，太阳能板、电池、储能系统的主供应商还是中国。美国LNG船队能救急，却 贵，欧洲政策被夹在美国的气和中国的绿技之间，进退维谷。与其完全倒向美国，欧洲继续同中国做生意：2024年中欧贸易保持稳定，对德贸易达到2530亿 美元，法国与中国的贸易还增长了12%。欧洲有人连着账本叹气：若想重起炉灶，材料与设备要从东方来。 美 ...

当地时间10月8日，美国商务部工业与安全局（BIS）发布公告，将26家实体与3个地址加入实体清单 （Entity List）。其中包括16家中国企业和3个中国香港地址。BIS声称本次调整的重点，是打击为伊朗及 其代理组织采购美国原产电子元件的中间商网络，其中相当一部分是活跃在中国大陆与香港的分销、技术 与物流企业。 具体地，BIS在本次规则中称，自2017年以来，中东和海湾地区多次在伊朗代理武装（包括胡塞武装、哈马 斯）的无人机残骸中发现大量美国产电子元件。经美方调查，中国大陆及香港多家实体在这些元件的采购、供 应与中转过程中扮演了关键角色，帮助伊朗及其代理规避美国出口管制。此外，还有中国企业直接参与向伊朗 伊斯兰革命卫队圣城旅（IRGC-QF）提供无人机零部件的所谓的违规采购活动，被美国明确列为目标。 此次新增包括三个中国香港地址条目和16家中国企业。 被列入的香港地址此前被OFAC制裁的伊朗电子供应网络有直接关联。BIS将地址单独列入，意味着今后凡是 在这些地址注册或经营的实体，若涉及EAR管辖物项出口，都将自动触发许可要求，并适用" 推定拒绝 "的审 查政策。 16家企业的范围相当广泛，既包括全球大型电 ...

近年来，中欧班列的物流网络发展迅速，成为"一带一路"倡议中的重要组成部分，主要通过运输电子产品、汽车零部件等商品，将中国货物直接运送到欧 洲。然而，2025年9月12日，波兰突然采取了非常强硬的措施，关闭了与白俄罗斯的所有边境口岸，导致铁路和公路交通全部中断，通信也被切断。这一举 动的原因是俄白联合军演"Zapad-2025"在白俄罗斯边境地区展开，波兰出于安全考虑决定采取封锁措施。 这一封锁突然发生，让物流行业陷入了极大的困扰。布列斯特口岸是中欧班列进入欧盟的主要通道，封锁直接影响到超过80%的货物运输。封锁开始后不到 一周，已有超过300列班列被滞留在白俄罗斯边境，并且每天还有大约20列新列车加入堆积的队伍。满载着光伏组件、电子元件和家电等货物的货柜堆积如 山，仓库已满，调度系统几乎瘫痪。为了解决这一问题，白俄罗斯铁路公司临时开放了内陆站点作为停靠点，试图腾出空间，但这显然无法解决根本问题， 因为主干线路的封锁导致货物无法正常流通。 这一事件不仅暴露了中欧班列陆路通道的脆弱性，也为其他备选路线提供了可能的解决方案。随着哈萨克斯坦的快速响应，中欧班列的运输网络或许能够迎 来新的转机。 物流公司统计显示，封锁 ...

"建军，你不能这么对我！我们当初是怎么说的？"我对着电话，用尽全身力气怒吼。 "怎么说的？"电话那头，大舅哥林建军的声音冰冷得像一块铁，"程浩，做人别太贪心，给你15万已经是我看在我 妹林雪的面子上了！" 他一个人闷头喝着酒，菜没夹几口，一杯接一杯的白酒就下了肚。 他前阵子跟人合伙做生意赔了个底朝天，老婆也跟他闹离婚，整个人都蔫了，像只斗败的公鸡。 电话被猛地挂断，听着"嘟嘟"的忙音，我感觉全身的血液都凝固了。 两年前，我拿出全部积蓄助他建厂，如今工厂年利润200万，他却想用15万就将我打发。 酒过三巡，岳父看着他那副样子，忍不住叹了口气："建军，你也老大不小了，别总想着一步登天。踏踏实实找个 活干，比什么都强。" 我决定撤资，让他看看，这个厂到底离了谁不行。 这话像是点着了火药桶。 01 那天是我岳父的六十大寿，家里摆了两大桌，亲戚们都来了，热热闹闹的。 可饭桌上，总有一个人格格不入，那就是我的大舅哥，林建军。 林建军"砰"的一声把酒杯砸在桌上，红着眼睛站了起来。 "爸！你怎么也看不起我？谁想一步登天了？我那是没本钱！我要是有本钱，我能让你们都过上好日子！" 饭桌上的气氛瞬间就僵了。 林建军借着酒劲，从随身 ...

南方财经记者程浩 东莞报道 9月25日，东莞市统计局公布2025年1—8月东莞经济运行情况。数据显示，今年前8月工业生产稳定增 长、外贸进出口保持较快增长，东莞全市经济运行总体平稳。 其中，1—8月东莞规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.8%。主导产业增速较快，电子信息制造业增加值同 比增长9.0%，电气机械及设备制造业同比增长8.5%，化工制造业同比增长11.6%。 值得注意的是，东莞外贸进出口依旧保持较快增长，前8月东莞外贸进出口总额10256.1亿元，同比增长 14.6%。 工业方面，1—8月东莞规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.8%，主导产业增速较快，新动能产业发展良 好。先进制造业、高技术制造业增加值分别同比增长7.6%、9.0%。从产品产量看，高技术产品产量保 持较快增长，集成电路、服务器、智能手表、电子元件等产品产量分别同比增长82.7%、62.7%、 42.4%、11.3%。 外贸方面，今年1—8月东莞进口3959.2亿元，同比增长24.9%；出口6296.8亿元，同比增长9.0%。尤其 是8月份，东莞外贸进出口总额同比增长8.5%。其中，进口同比增长16.8%，出口同比增长4.3%。 投资方面，1—8 ...

Group 1 - The strategic agreement between the Mexican Industrial Chamber Federation (CONCAMIN) and the Moroccan Business Confederation (CGEM) aims to enhance experience sharing, innovation promotion, and investment strengthening, reflecting a political will to establish direct partnerships among emerging economies beyond the traditional Euro-American model [1] - For Morocco, this agreement continues its economic diversification strategy, leveraging its geographical advantage to become a gateway to Africa, while expanding its partnership scope beyond Europe and the Mediterranean [1] - Mexico seeks to diversify its export markets despite deep integration into the North American market through the USMCA, using the alliance with Morocco to access Africa and Europe, and extend trade reach to the Middle East via Morocco's logistics corridor network [1] Group 2 - The trade volume between Morocco and Mexico remains weak, with Mexico's exports to Morocco projected at approximately $30.4 million in 2024, and total bilateral trade nearing $100 million [2] - Morocco's exports primarily consist of phosphates and derivatives, textiles, and electronic components, while Mexico's exports are mainly agricultural and pharmaceutical products [2]

9月25日，东莞市统计局发布了2025年1-8月经济运行情况。1-8月，东莞坚持稳中求进工作总基调，扎 实推动高质量发展，积极落实各项政策措施，全市经济运行总体保持稳定。 工业生产稳定增长 1-8月，全市固定资产投资总额同比下降6.1%，降幅比1-7月收窄2.7个百分点；扣除房地产开发投资，全 市固定资产投资同比增长14.6%，增速比1-7月提高4.2个百分点。新动能投资较快增长，先进制造业投 资同比增长45.8%，高技术制造业投资同比增长54.3%。基础设施投资同比增长7.2%。房地产开发投资 同比下降49.9%，商品房销售面积同比下降5.2%。 财政金融运行平稳 1-8月，全市一般公共预算收入553.18亿元，同比增长2.3%；一般公共预算支出608.68亿元，同比持平。 8月末，金融机构本外币存款余额28793.89亿元，同比增长4.6%，其中，住户存款11886.25亿元，同比 增长9.8%；金融机构本外币贷款余额19934.33亿元，同比增长3.5%。 居民消费价格基本稳定 1-8月，全市规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.8%。分行业看，主导产业增速较快，电子信息制造业增加 值同比增长9.0%，电气机械 ...

Core Viewpoint - Heyuan, known as Guangdong's "water tower," prioritizes ecological safety over industrial development, leading to a lower GDP compared to other cities in the province [2][13]. Group 1: Water Economy - Heyuan is recognized as Guangdong's "big water tank," supplying over 40 million residents in Guangdong and Hong Kong with high-quality water, which has led to the rejection of over 400 enterprises to protect its water resources [2][5]. - The city has developed a robust water economy, with the water industry expected to reach a scale of 10 billion yuan, supported by major companies like Nongfu Spring, China Resources, and Wahaha establishing operations in the region [6][7]. - In 2024, the output value of Heyuan's bottled water and food industry reached 9.25 billion yuan, positioning it as a significant player in the national water industry landscape [6]. Group 2: Tea Economy - The tea industry in Heyuan, particularly in Zijin County, has seen explosive growth, with annual output value increasing from 150 million yuan in 2015 to 1.85 billion yuan, benefiting from the "Hundred Million Project" aimed at rural revitalization [9][10]. - The area has transformed its tea production through comprehensive support, leading to a significant increase in planting area from 18,000 mu to 85,000 mu, creating a large-scale tea plantation [10]. - The tea industry has provided economic benefits to local farmers, with an average annual income increase of over 11,000 yuan per household and nearly 20,000 rural laborers achieving employment close to home [10][11]. Group 3: Economic Transformation - Heyuan is transitioning from traditional agriculture to modern agriculture, demonstrating that ecological protection can coexist with economic development [12]. - The collaboration with Shenzhen has been pivotal in enhancing infrastructure and supporting local industries, contributing to Heyuan's evolution from a "sacrificial" city to a "green growth pole" [14].

Economic Performance - Shandong's economy showed steady growth in the first eight months of the year, with total imports and exports reaching 2.32 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.8% [1] - Exports amounted to 1.42 trillion yuan, growing by 5.4%, while imports were 904.62 billion yuan, increasing by 6.4% [1] Foreign Trade Dynamics - Shandong ranked first among the top five foreign trade provinces in China in terms of import and export growth rate [1] - The province's foreign trade "new three categories" include electric passenger vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar cells, indicating a shift towards higher value-added products [1][2] Industry Highlights - The automotive sector in Shandong has seen significant growth, with electric vehicle exports reaching approximately 32,000 units in the first eight months, marking an increase of over 60% [2] - The gaming and electronic components sectors also experienced robust growth, with exports increasing by 60% and 12.6% respectively [2] Private Sector Contribution - Private enterprises in Shandong accounted for 1.76 trillion yuan in imports and exports, a year-on-year increase of 7%, representing 75.6% of the province's total foreign trade [3] - The number of private enterprises engaged in foreign trade reached 66,000, an increase of 5,184 from the previous year, making up 92.5% of all trading entities [3] Market Challenges - Despite the positive trends, Shandong's trade with ASEAN and RCEP countries saw declines of 1.5% and 1.3% respectively, highlighting the need for structural optimization in trade partnerships [4] - Analysts suggest that the decline in trade with these regions is due to both long-term and short-term factors, emphasizing the importance of building mutually beneficial regional cooperation networks [5]

Core Insights - Poland's government imposed a sudden ban on all land border crossings with Belarus citing national security, which has led to significant disruptions in the Eurasian logistics network [2] - The closure of the border has resulted in a paralysis of the Central European freight routes, particularly affecting the Malaszewicze transshipment station, which handles approximately 90% of freight volume for the Central European Railway [2][4] - The crisis has triggered a chain reaction affecting various industries, with logistics costs rising over 15%, production halts in major companies, and significant unemployment risks for local logistics workers [4][6] Logistics and Supply Chain Impact - Over 300 freight trains have been stranded, leading to a backlog of 30,000 containers, impacting the supply of Christmas goods and essential electronic components [2][4] - Major companies like Volkswagen have halted production due to chip shortages, incurring daily losses of €2 million [4] - The crisis has prompted companies to diversify their supply chains, with some increasing local procurement rates and investing in alternative manufacturing locations [9][11] Geopolitical and Trade Dynamics - The Polish government's decision is viewed as a political maneuver against China's stance on the Ukraine issue, despite the significant trade relationship between Poland and China, which reached €28.7 billion in 2024 [6][8] - China is actively working to secure the Central European Railway as part of its Belt and Road Initiative, while also developing alternative logistics routes through Central Asia and the South [8] - The crisis has highlighted divisions within the EU, with neighboring countries urging Poland to reopen its borders to avoid further supply chain disruptions [8] Future Outlook - The ongoing situation may lead to a permanent loss of Poland's status as a logistics hub for Central Europe, as companies adapt to new supply chain routes and logistics networks [13] - The construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway is expected to shorten freight distances and increase annual capacity significantly [8][13] - The crisis could serve as a pivotal moment for global supply chain diversification, reshaping trade routes and logistics networks across Eurasia [13]