USA: GS Economic Indicators Update (Rindels) 7 April 2025 | 1:52PM EDT Please find an update of our proprietary economic indicators below. The data behind these exhibits can be downloaded here. Interactive charts can be found on our living page here. The nominal GS US Financial Conditions Index tightened by 42.5bp to 99.95 over the last week, mostly due to lower equity prices, and the real GS US FCI tightened by 50.2bp to 99.62: Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec P ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global financial markets, particularly equities, fixed income, foreign exchange (FX), credit, and commodities. Core Insights and Arguments - **Equity Market Forecasts**: - S&P 500 is forecasted to reach 6,500 by Q4 2025, with a total return of 29.6% and volatility at 18% [3][3][3] - MSCI Europe is expected to rise to 2,150, with a total return of 12.0% and volatility at 16% [3][3][3] - Topix is projected to hit 3,000, with a total return of 23.5% and volatility at 19% [3][3][3] - MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) is forecasted to reach 1,200, with a total return of 13.1% and volatility at 16% [3][3][3] - **Fixed Income and Credit**: - UST 10-year yield is stable at 4.00%, with a total return forecast of 4.1% and volatility at 7% [3][3][3] - US High Yield (HY) is expected to yield a total return of 6.0% with a forecasted spread of 350 basis points [3][3][3] - **Commodities**: - Brent crude oil is projected to rise to 67.5, with a total return of 6.2% and high volatility at 39% [3][3][3] - Copper is expected to reach 9,800, with a total return of 10.9% and volatility at 21% [3][3][3] - Gold is forecasted to decline to 2,700, with a total return of -13.1% and volatility at 14% [3][3][3] - **Market Sentiment**: - The Morgan Stanley Global Risk Demand Index is at -4, indicating a deep 'fear' territory, suggesting a bearish sentiment across markets [7][10][10] - The decline in the S&P 500 has been more severe than the median bear market at this point in a sell-off [12][12][12] - **Recession Odds**: - Polymarket indicates a 60% probability of a US recession in 2025, reflecting growing concerns about economic stability [15][15][15] Additional Important Insights - **ETF Flows**: - The report tracks daily fund flows across approximately 5,000 ETFs globally, covering around $7 trillion in assets, providing insights into cross-asset sentiment and positioning [22][22][22] - **Positioning Summary**: - US equities show a net positioning of 28% among managers, while EM equities have a higher net positioning of 50% [61][61][61] - **Market Volatility**: - A spike in VIX during a large equities sell-off is noted, with current levels closer to the high end of a bear market range [8][8][8] - **Cross-Asset Correlations**: - The report includes a correlation framework to identify good portfolio diversifiers, emphasizing the importance of negative correlations to equities for risk management [80][80][80] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the forecasts, market sentiment, and positioning across various asset classes.

11 April 2025 | 9:59PM BST GOAL: Global Opportunity Asset Locator Remain defensive tactically as markets reprice stagflation risks Christian Mueller-Glissmann, CFA +44(20)7774-1714 | christian.mueller- glissmann@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Andrea Ferrario +44(20)7552-4353 | andrea.ferrario@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Alessandro Giglio +44(20)7051-6240 | alessandro.giglio@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Peter Oppenheimer +44(20)7552-5782 | Remain defensive tactically as markets reprice stagf ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported record revenues of $17.7 billion and EPS of $2.60, with a return on tangible equity (ROTCE) of 23% [5][16]. - The efficiency ratio for the first quarter was 68%, despite incurring $144 million in severance charges related to performance management [17][18]. - The common equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio stood at 15.3%, indicating a strong capital position [6][43]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Institutional Securities achieved record revenues of $9 billion, up 28% year-over-year, driven by strong performance in equity and fixed income [18][19]. - Wealth Management generated revenues of $7.3 billion, with a reported margin of 27% and $94 billion in net new assets [29][30]. - Investment Management reported revenues of $1.6 billion, a 16% increase year-over-year, with total assets under management (AUM) ending at $1.6 trillion [39]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted increased volatility in stock, bond, and currency markets, with a heightened risk of recession but a consensus leaning towards softer growth rather than negative [9][11]. - Client activity remained strong across various regions, particularly in Asia, where Institutional Securities revenues were up 35% year-over-year [77][78]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company emphasized a strategy focused on raising, managing, and allocating capital for clients, with a commitment to long-term growth despite near-term uncertainties [14][15]. - The management highlighted the importance of maintaining a strong global presence and adapting to changing market dynamics, particularly in Asia and Europe [79][82]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism regarding the economic outlook, noting that while some clients are pausing strategic activities, others continue to engage actively [92][95]. - The company is preparing for potential regulatory reforms, particularly regarding the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR), which could provide additional opportunities for capital deployment [99][100]. Other Important Information - The company repurchased $1 billion of common stock during the quarter, reflecting its commitment to returning capital to shareholders [42]. - The firm experienced strong demand for strategic advice and capital raising, despite some disruptions in near-term deal activity due to market volatility [23][24]. Q&A Session Summary Question: Equities trading outlook - Management noted that client activity across all products and regions was strong, and while a weaker economy could impact trading, current engagement levels remain high [51][55]. Question: M&A outlook - Management highlighted encouraging trends in M&A activity, with year-over-year growth across all client segments, despite some market deterioration [58][60]. Question: Risk management in trading - Management indicated that client engagement remains strong, and while there is natural volatility, the market-making function continues to perform well [72][74]. Question: International business prospects - Management expressed bullish sentiments regarding the international business, particularly in Asia, emphasizing the importance of local engagement and partnerships [77][81]. Question: Impact of SLR changes - Management discussed the potential impact of SLR reforms on capital deployment, emphasizing the need for a holistic view of regulatory changes [99][100]. Question: Advisor business trends - Management reported strong interest in the advisor platform, with increased recruitment and retention trends, particularly in the self-directed and advisor-led channels [108][110].

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Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent liquidity risks in the U.S. market due to the unwinding of basis trades by hedge funds, which may lead to a significant increase in U.S. Treasury yields and systemic financial risks [1][12]. Summary by Sections Basis Trading Overview - Basis trading involves arbitrage between the cash, futures, and repo markets of U.S. Treasuries, where investors buy cash Treasuries and sell futures to profit from the price difference [2]. - The cost of basis trading primarily consists of borrowing costs in the repo market, while the return is derived from the basis, which is the difference between futures and cash prices [2][6]. Risks of Basis Trading - The main risks associated with basis trading include: 1. **Repo Roll-Over Risk**: Increased borrowing costs if liquidity in the repo market tightens [6]. 2. **Margin Risk**: Potential losses if futures and cash prices diverge significantly [6]. 3. **Leverage Risk**: High leverage can amplify the aforementioned risks [6]. Current Market Conditions - As of Q3 2024, hedge funds hold approximately $2.06 trillion in long positions in cash Treasuries and have about $1 trillion in net repo borrowings, indicating a total basis trading volume between $1 trillion and $1.5 trillion [9][11]. - The market is currently characterized by high volatility, with the VIX and MOVE indices reaching recent highs, which may trigger increased margin requirements for hedge funds [12][16]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The U.S. Treasury market is experiencing an oversupply, exacerbated by a new debt ceiling proposal that could increase the deficit by $5.8 trillion over the next decade [16][19]. - Weak demand, particularly from foreign investors, has been noted since late last year, which could further pressure liquidity in the market [16][19]. Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Escalating trade tensions and geopolitical risks may lead to capital outflows from the U.S., contributing to a potential "triple whammy" of declines in stocks, bonds, and the dollar [19][20]. - Hedge funds, as significant net buyers of Treasuries since the beginning of the balance sheet reduction, have substantial exposure across various asset classes, which could facilitate the spread of risks across markets [22][24]. Future Outlook - The likelihood of systemic financial risks is increasing, particularly with the potential for liquidity shocks following the resolution of the debt ceiling in May-June [26]. - The Federal Reserve may be compelled to restart quantitative easing (QE) to stabilize the market, which could further exacerbate wealth inequality and contradict current economic policies aimed at strengthening the middle class [26].

Company Overview and Strategy - MDB Capital aims to transform deep technology "Big Ideas" into valuable public companies[6] - The company's goal is to enable investors to create a portfolio of 10–12 MDB curated venture-stage companies over time[7] - MDB's platform helps stand up and launch deep tech new category leaders[10] Pipeline and Due Diligence - In 2024, MDB screened 8,964 private and public companies and further examined 219 to identify deep tech ideas[21] - The number of private companies reviewed increased by 107% from 3,391 in 2023 to 7,025 in 2024[22] - The number of public companies under surveillance increased by 35% from 1,432 in 2023 to 1,939 in 2024[22] - Companies further examined increased by 366% from 47 in 2023 to 219 in 2024[22] Financial Performance and Investments - MDB's direct assets increased significantly by 2,092% from $2,016,959 in 2023 to $44,215,968 in 2024[22] - The company completed an IPO for Invizyne Technologies (now eXoZymes Inc (EXOZ)) in November 2024, raising $15 million[21,40] - MDB's initial investment of $5.9 million in eXoZymes translated into a $150 million market cap company[40] - MDB owns 47% of eXoZymes' outstanding stock[40] Market Positioning and Future Outlook - MDB is well-positioned for 2025 due to a significant increase in micro-cap deal opportunities and a growing demand for micro-cap financing[29,34] - Venture Capital fundraising declined by nearly 58% in 2023 and by 23-25% in 2024[31]

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Investment Rating - The report indicates that most equities have entered or are on the cusp of a bear market, with a focus on the potential for further downside [4][5][22]. Core Insights - The report identifies three types of bear markets: Structural, Cyclical, and Event-driven, with the current market being classified as Event-driven due to tariff triggers, but with a risk of transitioning into a Cyclical bear market [4][12][21]. - Average declines in both Event-driven and Cyclical bear markets are around 30%, but they differ in duration, with Event-driven downturns being shorter and recovering faster [22][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of valuation adjustments, extreme positioning, policy support, and signs of improving growth for a sustained market recovery [40][45][58]. Summary by Sections Bear Market Types - Structural bear markets are triggered by imbalances and bubbles, Cyclical bear markets by rising interest rates and recessions, and Event-driven bear markets by one-off shocks [13][19]. - Historical data shows that Structural bear markets have the most severe impacts, averaging declines of around 60% and taking a decade to recover [15][19]. Current Market Analysis - The current market is characterized as an Event-driven bear market, primarily influenced by tariff increases, with a noted probability of recession rising to 45% [21][22]. - The report highlights that the US equity market has seen significant de-rating, particularly in technology stocks, which has impacted overall market performance [5][22]. Recovery Conditions - For a sustained recovery, the report outlines that valuations need to adjust further, and the market must see a combination of cheap valuations, extreme negative positioning, policy intervention, and signs of improving growth [40][45][58]. - The report notes that while the US market remains expensive relative to historical standards, other markets are not particularly inexpensive either [41][44]. Market Sentiment and Positioning - The report discusses the recent significant drop in market sentiment, indicating a broad-based 'risk-off' approach among investors, which historically signals better opportunities for buying [60][62]. - The Risk Appetite Indicator has shown a considerable decline, suggesting that market positioning is adjusting to a more negative outlook [60][62].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has lowered its oil price forecasts, incorporating further downward adjustments to GDP expectations, predicting Brent crude prices to drop to $62 and WTI prices to $58 per barrel by December 2025, and further to $55 and $51 by December 2026 [1] Group 1: Economic Assumptions - The forecast assumes that the U.S. economy will avoid a recession, with a projected mild increase in oil demand of 300,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 400,000 barrels per day in 2026, based on a 0.5% GDP growth in Q4 2025 and a global GDP growth of 1.7% [1] - OPEC+ supply is expected to increase moderately, with a total production increase of approximately 700,000 barrels per day over four months, following a 411,000 barrels per day increase in May [1] Group 2: Price Downside Risks - Three potential shocks could lead to downward pressure on oil prices: a typical U.S. economic recession, a global economic slowdown, and the cancellation of OPEC+ voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day [2] - In a typical U.S. recession scenario, Brent crude prices are expected to fall to $58 and $50 per barrel by December 2025 and December 2026, respectively [5] - In a global GDP slowdown scenario, Brent prices could drop to $54 and $45 per barrel by the same dates, while the complete cancellation of OPEC+ cuts could see prices at $53 and $45 per barrel [6] Group 3: Trading Strategy Recommendations - Goldman Sachs recommends a new three-way trading strategy for macro investors and oil producers to hedge against recession and oil price decline risks [10] - The strategy involves selling Brent crude call options with a strike price of $75 per barrel for June 2026 and using the proceeds to buy put options with strike prices of $55 and $45 per barrel [10][13] - This approach is based on the premise that idle capacity limits the upside potential for oil prices, while U.S. shale oil provides a solid price support at lower levels [10]