Core Viewpoint - The U.S. soybean farmers are urging President Trump to reach a trade agreement with China to secure significant soybean purchases, as they face rising costs and declining sales prospects due to China's shift towards Brazilian soybeans [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Relations - China, the world's largest soybean buyer, is currently purchasing soybeans from Brazil instead of the U.S. due to ongoing trade tensions [1][3]. - The U.S. soybean association highlighted the financial pressure on farmers, with rising costs for materials and equipment while soybean prices continue to decline [1]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The potential economic loss for the U.S. due to China's shift to Brazilian soybeans is estimated to be "tens of billions of dollars" [3]. - In the 2023-2024 marketing year, China purchased 54% of U.S. soybean exports, valued at $13.2 billion, but has increasingly diversified its imports, with Brazil becoming the largest supplier [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - U.S. soybean farmers are skeptical about Trump's claims of increasing Chinese purchases, as current data shows that U.S. soybeans account for only about 15% of China's total soybean imports [3]. - The urgency for a resolution is emphasized, as delays in reaching an agreement could lead to more severe impacts on U.S. farmers [3].

Core Viewpoint - U.S. soybean growers are on the brink of a "trade and financial cliff," struggling to cope with the prolonged trade war, as highlighted by the president of the American Soybean Association, Caleb Ragland [1] Group 1: Economic Pressure - U.S. soybean farmers are experiencing significant economic stress due to ongoing trade disputes with their customers [1] - Soybean prices have been continuously declining, exacerbating the financial strain on growers [1] - Simultaneously, farmers are facing substantial increases in costs for agricultural inputs and equipment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the severe challenges faced by American soybean farmers due to the trade policies implemented by former President Trump, particularly the increased tariffs on Chinese imports, which have led to a significant loss of market access for U.S. soybeans. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs - Trump's announcement in April 2025 to raise tariffs on Chinese imports from 34% to 84% resulted in a total tax rate of 104%, which prompted China to retaliate with a 10% tariff on U.S. soybeans, eliminating the price advantage of American soybeans [3] - As a consequence, Chinese buyers signed contracts for 12 million tons of soybeans from Brazil, accounting for half of the demand for the next two months, leaving American farmers without any sales [3] Group 2: Agricultural Subsidies - In response to the crisis, Trump proposed a $61 billion subsidy plan, but most of the funds went to large farms and urban investors, while small farmers received minimal support, insufficient to cover rising costs [5] - Following the announcement of subsidies, soybean prices fell by 1.5%, indicating market skepticism about the effectiveness of these measures [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Trump's pressure tactics, including demands for China to purchase four times the amount of soybeans, were ineffective as China continued to secure supplies from Brazil, even establishing currency settlements to avoid exchange rate risks [7] - The reliance on Chinese orders has historically been significant, with over 40% of U.S. soybean exports going to China, but by August 2025, orders from Chinese buyers had completely ceased [9] Group 4: Consequences for Farmers - The financial strain on American farmers is evident, with 88 farms filing for bankruptcy, a 76% increase from the previous year, as subsidies failed to cover loan interests [11] - The article highlights the disparity in subsidy distribution, with funds benefiting Wall Street investors rather than actual farmers, leading to disillusionment among the agricultural community [11] Group 5: Competitive Landscape - China's investments in Brazil have strengthened its supply chain, with a 48% increase in Brazilian soybean shipments to Chinese ports, while American shipments have virtually disappeared [13] - The cost advantage of Brazilian soybeans, which are $31 per ton cheaper than U.S. soybeans, combined with shorter transportation times and reduced currency risks, has made American soybeans less competitive [15]

Group 1 - The core issue is the significant loss of U.S. soybean market share to Brazil and Argentina, with 12 million tons of orders directed to South America, representing half of China's soybean demand for the next two months, leaving U.S. farmers frustrated and with unsold stock [1] - The U.S.-China trade tensions have led to retaliatory tariffs, severely impacting U.S. farmers who rely on the Chinese market for exports of soybeans, corn, and pork, resulting in a drastic reduction in U.S. soybean export contracts [3] - As of the end of July, U.S. soybean export contracts for the new season were only 3 million tons, the lowest in nearly two decades, contrasting sharply with previous years when orders from China were filled well into the year [5] Group 2 - The U.S. agricultural sector is facing challenges not only from China but also from Canada and Mexico, as trade agreements like USMCA may lead to disputes over agricultural subsidies and market access, further complicating the situation for U.S. farmers [7] - The strategy of diversifying supply chains away from the U.S. has been effective for China, which has reduced its dependency on U.S. agricultural products, causing significant economic repercussions for American farmers [7] - The silence of U.S. political leadership, particularly from former President Trump, is viewed as a betrayal of the farmers who supported him, as their interests are being overlooked in favor of political posturing [7]

失去中国市场，美国大豆恐难以自救，特朗普面临巨大的农民压力 2025年8月16日，《卫报》报道了美国大豆产业的严峻困境。随着2025年10月大豆公开销售日期临近，美国大豆协会深感焦虑，因为失去了中国这个庞大的 市场后，美国农民开始担心大豆是否会"烂在地里"。美国大豆面临着多重威胁，而最根本的挑战依然是如何重新获得中国市场。对此，英国《卫报》分析了 美国大豆所面临的三大困境： 第一个威胁：气候变化与病虫害 随着气候变化的不断加剧，病虫害对大豆产量和质量造成了严重威胁。美国大豆协会深知，这一因素将导致今年的减产，进一步加剧农民的困境。为了保护 农民利益，大豆协会亟需找到应对之策。如何平衡农民利益和产量问题，成为协会最为迫切的任务。 第二个威胁：生产成本激增 美国农业机械化程度很高，但这也意味着生产成本日益增加，尤其是病虫害的蔓延使得投入更为庞大。化肥、种子和机械维护等成本不断攀升，使得美国农 民面临巨大压力。更为复杂的是，美国的通货膨胀问题加剧了这种压力，导致大豆种植户无力承担不断上涨的生产成本。如何在生产成本激增的情况下，通 过合理价格卖出大豆，成为了大豆协会的另一大忧虑。 第三个威胁：中国市场的丧失 美国大豆 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current situation in the U.S. soybean industry is described as a "multiple disaster," with farmers facing unprecedented challenges due to trade policies, climate issues, and rising costs [1][3][5]. Trade Policy Impact - Since the trade war with China began in 2018, U.S. soybean exports to China have plummeted, with only 22.13 million tons expected in 2024 compared to China's total soybean imports of 105 million tons [1][3]. - The U.S. soybean association has highlighted that no other market can match China's demand, emphasizing the critical role of China in U.S. soybean exports [3]. Climate Challenges - Extreme weather conditions have exacerbated the difficulties faced by U.S. soybean farmers, with persistent rainfall leading to severe pest and disease issues [3][5]. - Farmers in states like Indiana and Ohio have reported significant seed losses due to flooding, forcing them to invest more in pest control [3]. Economic Pressures - The overall decline in the U.S. agricultural market, coupled with rising costs for seeds, fertilizers, and land, has created a dual pressure on farmers, making it difficult for many small farms to operate sustainably [5]. - Many farmers are reducing their investments in hopes of survival, which threatens future yield and quality, leading to a vicious cycle in the agricultural supply chain [5]. Government Response - The Trump administration's response to the crisis has been criticized as ineffective, with calls for China to resume soybean purchases lacking substantive measures to address the underlying issues [5][6]. - Reports indicate that Brazil is strengthening its agricultural cooperation with China, further jeopardizing the position of U.S. soybean farmers in the market [5]. Future Outlook - The future of U.S. agriculture, particularly for soybean farmers, is uncertain, with climate change and inadequate trade policies posing long-term challenges [6]. - There is a pressing need for practical policies and deeper international cooperation to address the agricultural crisis, which is vital for the overall economy [6].

华盛顿的贸易迷局：昔日剧本已失效 在2025年8月一个闷热的深夜，前总统特朗普再次成为焦点，他在社交媒体上向中国发出了令人瞠目结舌的呼吁——将美国大豆的年度采购量提升至惊人的 8800万吨，是原有2200万吨的四倍。这个数字如同一个不切实际的白日梦，几乎相当于美国大豆全年出口量的两倍，暗示着中国需要吞下美国根本无法供应 的巨量库存。 然而，现实却是一记响亮的耳光。中国港口，800万吨的美国大豆如同一座座沉默的山丘，无人问津。2025年上半年，美国对华大豆出口额仅为可怜的300万 吨，同比暴跌88%，跌至20年来的冰点。美国未售出的大豆库存高达4200万吨，足够中国消费一整年。 昔日依赖中国市场的美国豆农们，如今却陷入了绝望。曾经，中国是美国大豆的最大买家，占据其出口量的60%。如今，来自中国的订单几近归零，中西部 农业州一片萧条景象，破产潮蔓延。在爱荷华州，一位农场主望着堆积如山、无人问津的大豆，绝望地咒骂道："当初投票给特朗普？我真是后悔死了！" 原因很简单：选择多了。中国早已改变了将鸡蛋放在一个篮子里的策略。2025年1月至6月，巴西对华大豆出口飙升至3186万吨，独占中国市场七成份额。阿 根廷则更加精明 ...

Core Insights - The 31st National Soybean Research and Production Seminar was held from August 16 to 18, focusing on "Biological Breeding Empowering High-Quality Development of Chinese Soybeans" [1] - Over 600 representatives from research institutions, universities, management departments, technology promotion agencies, and enterprises participated to discuss and provide suggestions for the high-quality development of China's soybean industry [1] Group 1: Seminar Details - The seminar featured 11 keynote speeches and 77 sub-forum presentations, along with 25 abstract papers [1] - Experts shared the latest research progress in areas such as genetic breeding, cultivation practices, nutritional quality, photoperiod response, disease resistance, pest resistance, stress tolerance, and efficient nutrient utilization [1] Group 2: Regional Developments - Inner Mongolia's Xingan League has established the first provincial-level biological breeding technology innovation center in the country, leveraging its experience in the industrialization of biological breeding [1] - The region has developed the largest biological breeding soybean planting base and the largest standardized soybean seed production base in the country, and has been approved for a national modern agricultural soybean industrial park [1] - In 2024, Xingan League plans to promote biological breeding soybeans across 30.53 thousand acres, and the Koyou Qianqi has successfully applied to become a "provincial-level soybean seed production county" [1] Group 3: Field Observations - During the seminar, representatives visited a demonstration area in Guiliuhe Town, Koyou Qianqi, showcasing the improvement of soybean yield in a 10,000-acre biological breeding soybean area [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the unprecedented challenges faced by U.S. soybean farmers as the harvest season approaches, driven by climate disasters, soaring costs, and low international demand due to U.S. government tariff policies [1] - The absence of the Chinese market has intensified the pressure on U.S. soybean farmers, as China is the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans [1] Industry Overview - Soybeans are one of the most important crops in the U.S., playing a central role in agricultural exports [1] - In 2024, China imported approximately 105 million tons of soybeans, with 22.13 million tons sourced from the U.S. [1] - In contrast, Mexico, the second-largest market for U.S. soybeans, purchased less than 6 million tons, highlighting the significant gap compared to the Chinese market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of U.S. tariffs on soybean imports from China, highlighting a significant shift in China's sourcing from the U.S. to Brazil due to price competitiveness and trade policies [1][3][29]. Group 1: U.S.-China Soybean Trade Dynamics - Trump has urged China to increase soybean orders from the U.S. by four times, but recent reports indicate that China has sourced all its September and October soybean needs from Brazil and other South American countries, leaving U.S. suppliers empty-handed [3][5]. - The U.S. soybean import tariff to China has reached 23%, making U.S. soybeans significantly more expensive compared to Brazilian soybeans, which are approximately 200 yuan per ton cheaper [5][12]. - China's soybean imports from the U.S. have drastically decreased from 30 million tons in 2016 to an estimated 22.13 million tons in 2024, while imports from Brazil surged from 11.65 million tons to 74.65 million tons in the same period [7][25]. Group 2: Competitive Advantages of Brazilian Soybeans - Brazilian soybeans are favored due to lower production costs and stable supply, enhanced by a currency swap agreement with China that allows transactions without using U.S. dollars [10][12]. - Brazil's soybean production exceeds 160 million tons annually, ensuring a reliable supply to meet China's demands, while U.S. soybean quality has declined, failing to meet the increasing demand for high-protein soybeans in China [10][12]. - The efficiency of Brazilian ports has improved significantly, with a 48% increase in the number of vessels unloading Brazilian soybeans at Ningbo-Zhoushan port compared to the previous year [12]. Group 3: Economic Impact on U.S. Farmers - The U.S. soybean export value to China is projected to drop by at least several billion dollars due to the current trade dynamics, with soybean prices falling from $13-$15 per bushel in 2023 to around $9 [14][20]. - The financial strain on U.S. farmers is evident, with many facing bankruptcy risks and significant losses in income, affecting local economies reliant on agricultural revenue [16][18]. - The increase in tariffs has led to a rise in costs for agricultural machinery and fertilizers, further exacerbating the financial challenges faced by U.S. farmers [20][22]. Group 4: China's Strategic Shift in Soybean Sourcing - China is diversifying its soybean import sources to enhance food security, with projections indicating that by 2024, 71% of its soybean imports will come from Brazil, while only 21% will be from the U.S. [25][27]. - The Chinese government is also investing in domestic soybean production, aiming to increase output from 20.65 million tons in 2024 to 23 million tons by 2025 through various initiatives [25][27]. - The development of non-GMO soybean futures by the Dalian Commodity Exchange positions China as a global pricing center for non-GMO soybeans, reflecting a strategic move to gain control over its agricultural supply chain [27][29].