Core Viewpoint - The American Soybean Association is urging President Trump to prioritize soybean issues in trade negotiations with China due to significant financial pressure faced by U.S. soybean farmers as harvest season approaches [2] Group 1: Financial Pressure on Soybean Farmers - U.S. soybean farmers are experiencing "extreme" financial pressure as soybean prices continue to decline while production and equipment costs rise significantly [2] - The prolonged trade dispute with China is severely impacting U.S. soybean farmers, who are unable to sustain their operations without a resolution [2] Group 2: Export Statistics - Prior to 2018, an average of 28% of U.S. soybeans were exported to China, accounting for 60% of total U.S. soybean exports during that period [2] - For the 2023-2024 marketing year, U.S. soybean exports to China are projected to be nearly 25 million tons, significantly exceeding the 4.9 million tons exported to the European Union [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. soybean farmers are facing significant financial pressure due to declining soybean prices and rising production costs, exacerbated by ongoing trade disputes with China [1] Group 1: Financial Impact on Soybean Farmers - U.S. soybean prices continue to decline while production inputs and equipment costs have risen sharply [1] - The prolonged trade dispute with China is severely impacting U.S. soybean farmers, who are unable to sustain their operations [1] Group 2: Export Statistics - Prior to 2018, an average of 28% of U.S. soybeans were exported to China, accounting for 60% of total U.S. soybean exports during that period [1] - For the 2023-2024 marketing year, U.S. soybean exports to China are projected to be nearly 25 million tons, significantly higher than the 4.9 million tons exported to the European Union [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. soybean farmers are facing significant financial pressure due to ongoing trade disputes with China, which is their largest market, and the urgency for a resolution is increasing as the harvest season approaches [1] Group 1: Financial Pressure on Soybean Farmers - U.S. soybean prices continue to decline while production inputs and equipment costs are rising sharply, leading to unsustainable conditions for farmers [1] - The American Soybean Association emphasizes the need for prioritizing soybean issues in U.S.-China trade negotiations to alleviate the financial strain on farmers [1] Group 2: Export Statistics - Prior to 2018, an average of 28% of U.S. soybeans were exported to China, accounting for 60% of total U.S. soybean exports during that period [1] - For the 2023-2024 marketing year, U.S. soybean exports to China are projected to be nearly 25 million tons, significantly higher than the 4.9 million tons exported to the European Union, indicating China's critical role in the U.S. soybean market [1]

Group 1 - Gold prices rebounded from a three-week low of $3,302, indicating a potential recovery despite ongoing market caution [3][4] - The market is awaiting key U.S. economic data, including the second quarter GDP and Federal Reserve policy announcements, which may influence gold prices [4] - The U.S.-China trade negotiations have shown no immediate results, leading to a cautious market sentiment, while reports suggest a potential extension of the trade truce by a quarter [4] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices face downward risks, particularly after falling below the key support level of $3,342 [7] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently near 45, suggesting bearish potential for gold prices [7] - Gold may retest the three-week low of $3,302, with further declines potentially testing the July 9 low of $3,283 [8] Group 3 - The last defense line for gold buyers is set at the June 30 low of $3,248, while regaining a close near $3,345 is crucial for a meaningful rebound [9] - The next resistance level is at $3,380, leading towards the $3,400 mark [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Fats and Oils - Palm oil: Fundamentals in Malaysia are favorable with a 4% decline in production and a 14% increase in exports in the first half - month. BMD palm oil is in a stagnant and adjusted pattern near 4100 ringgit, with support around 4000 ringgit. Domestic palm oil has limited demand and is easily affected by the international market [1]. - Soybean oil: The US EPA's bio - diesel proposal is positive, and the May US soybean oil inventory was lower than expected. Domestic demand is in the off - season, but the low inventory and rising CBOT soybean prices support the market [1]. Meal - The market is affected by policies such as China - US trade negotiations and bio - diesel mixing requirements. Brazilian soybean sales progress has declined recently, and domestic soybean and meal inventories are rising. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate, and caution is advised when chasing long positions [3]. Corn - In the short term, corn prices are strong but the upward momentum weakens after reaching a high. In the long term, supply shortages and increasing consumption support price increases [5]. Pork - The spot price of pork is in a volatile structure. Supply - demand improvement is poor, and the upward drive is weak. However, there is support from the purchase and storage policy [9][10]. Sugar - Global sugar supply is becoming more abundant, and the original sugar is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern. Domestic sugar prices are also expected to be weak and volatile [14][15]. Cotton - The old - crop basis supports cotton prices, but the expected high yield of new cotton creates long - term pressure. Downstream demand has marginal improvement but lacks strong drivers. Short - term domestic cotton prices may fluctuate within a range [17]. Eggs - The national egg supply is large. It is expected that egg prices will decline slightly and then stabilize next week, with some factors potentially pulling up prices later [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fats and Oils - **Soybean oil**: On June 17, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8320 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2509 was 7614 yuan/ton, up 0.50%; the basis was 706 yuan/ton, down 2.49% [1]. - **Palm oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 8810 yuan/ton, up 0.23%; the futures price of P2509 was 8284 yuan/ton, up 0.31%; the basis was 526 yuan/ton, down 1.13% [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9750 yuan/ton, up 1.04%; the futures price of O1509 was 9230 yuan/ton, up 0.50%; the basis was 520 yuan/ton, up 11.59% [1]. Meal - **Soybean meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2920 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of M2509 was 3074 yuan/ton, up 0.95%; the basis was - 154 yuan/ton, down 23.20% [3]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2610 yuan/ton, up 1.16%; the futures price of RM2509 was 2682 yuan/ton, up 0.41%; the basis was - 72 yuan/ton, up 20.88% [3]. Corn - **Corn**: On June 17, the futures price of Corn 2507 was 2364 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; the basis was 6 yuan/ton, down 71.43% [5]. - **Corn starch**: The futures price of Corn Starch 2507 was 2685 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; the basis was 35 yuan/ton, up 12.90% [5]. Pork - **Futures**: The price of Live Pig 2507 was 13305 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Live Pig 2509 was 13815 yuan/ton, up 0.25%; the 7 - 9 spread was 510 yuan/ton, up 7.37% [9]. - **Spot**: The prices in Henan and Shandong were 14250 yuan/ton and 14500 yuan/ton respectively [9]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of Sugar 2601 was 5554 yuan/ton, up 0.27%; the price of Sugar 2509 was 5691 yuan/ton, up 0.42%; ICE raw sugar was 16.45 cents/pound, down 3.35% [14]. - **Spot**: The price in Nanning was 6030 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; the price in Kunming was 5865 yuan/ton, up 0.51% [14]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of Cotton 2509 was 13525 yuan/ton, down 0.04%; the price of Cotton 2601 was 13530 yuan/ton, unchanged; ICE US cotton was 67.64 cents/pound, down 0.60% [17]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14762 yuan/ton, up 0.32%; the CC Index of 3128B was 14862 yuan/ton, up 0.28% [17]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the Egg 09 contract was 3649 yuan/500KG, down 0.55%; the price of the Egg 07 contract was 2855 yuan/500KG, down 1.35% [19]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price was 2.77 yuan/jin, up 2.49% [19].

Group 1: Market Dynamics - The paper gold market showed subtle price dynamics on June 10, with an opening price of 768.23 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 770.34 CNY and a low of 762.52 CNY, closing at 766.57 CNY, reflecting a 0.22% decline from the opening [1] - Economic and political factors are interwoven, influencing market supply and demand as well as investor sentiment [1] Group 2: Trade Relations - Senior officials from the US and China are holding crucial meetings in London regarding tariffs and trade restrictions, with a previous agreement to suspend some tariffs easing market tensions [3] - Positive outcomes from the trade negotiations could increase market risk appetite, leading to a potential outflow of funds from safe-haven assets, which may exert downward pressure on gold prices, although the impact is expected to be limited [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The geopolitical situation, particularly Russia's control over more territory in Ukraine, has heightened market uncertainty, increasing the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [4] - In a low-interest-rate environment, gold's lack of yield becomes less of a disadvantage, enhancing its attractiveness for asset preservation during economic instability [4] Group 4: Inflation and Economic Indicators - Investors are focused on the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, a key indicator of inflation that could provide insights into the health of the US economy [4] - Higher-than-expected CPI data may intensify inflation concerns, potentially driving gold prices up, while lower-than-expected data could complicate the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [4] Group 5: Technical Analysis - Paper gold is facing critical resistance and support levels, with the 795-805 CNY range acting as significant resistance and the 740-750 CNY range as key support [5] - A breakthrough above the resistance could open further upside potential, while a drop below the support may trigger panic selling and further price declines [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary expects progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations in the coming weeks and indicates that the 145% tariffs imposed by Trump on China cannot be sustained long-term [1] Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary's comments suggest a potential easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China [1] - The expectation of progress in trade talks may positively impact market sentiment and investor confidence [1] - The statement regarding the unsustainability of high tariffs indicates a possible shift in U.S. trade policy towards China [1]