美国财长贝森特近期将中国暂停采购美豆斥为 "挟持人质"，这番言论恰暴露其战略焦虑。从贸易战到 高科技封锁，中国从未被动接招，而是以 "进口多元化 + 国产替代 + 技术突围" 的三重布局完成逆袭， 而大豆贸易的 "归零" 正是这一战略的必然结果，更给美国经济与特朗普政治生涯埋下定时炸弹。 ...

过去几年，美国大豆出口对中国依赖得厉害，2024年光对华出口就高达2214万吨，占了总量的不小一块儿。结果呢，特朗普一上台，二话不说就把关税往上 加，中国这边自然得回击。从2025年5月开始，中国买家就彻底停了美国大豆的订单，到现在新季收获都开始了，对华销量还是零。 这数据一摆出来，美国中西部那些豆农的日子可想而知。库存堆得像小山，价格直往下掉，本来一蒲式耳能卖10块多钱，现在勉强8块都难。农业部的数据 明明白白，2025年上半年美国大豆出口整体下滑，尤其中华市场那块儿，直接从上年的20%份额跌到谷底。 这不是头一回了，2018年那场贸易战，美国农业就损失了260亿美元，大豆首当其冲。补贴是给了点，可豆农们贷款种地，利息一滚雪球，扛不住啊。眼下 这情况更糟，关税累加到34%，加上增值税和最惠国税，中国进口商算笔账就知道，美国豆子贵了20多美元一吨，谁还买？ 转卖欧盟或印度？欧盟一年才买490万吨，印度消化不了多少，墨西哥自家产的够用。生物燃料那条路也在试，可技术还没成熟，规模上不去。说白了，这 关税风暴吹散的不光是豆粒，更是美国农业的稳定预期。豆农们以前觉得中国市场铁板钉钉，现在才发现，风向变了，变得他们措手 ...

«——【·前言·】——» 更狠的是，300多家美国屠宰场直接失去对华出口资格，连最后一批订单都卡在海关清关。 这记"自残 式"操作让澳大利亚捡了个大便宜。2025年2-3月，澳大利亚对华谷饲牛肉出口量同比暴增40%，仅两个 月就卖出2.1万吨，直接填补了美国留下的市场空白。 美国跌倒，盟友 "吃饱"！美财长手机短信内容曝光，两国疯抢中国市场，不打算给美国留活路了。 «——【·特朗普关税三板斧·】——» 大豆市场的戏码更夸张。特朗普关税政策出台后，中国连续14周没采购美国新季大豆，导致美国大豆库 存积压至4380万吨，创下1988年以来最高纪录。 特朗普重返白宫后的第一把火，就烧向了自家农民的"钱袋子"。自2025年3月宣布对华加征10%关税 后，美国对华牛肉出口量暴跌96%，过去5个月平均每月损失数亿美元。 更绝的是，澳大利亚肉类及畜牧业协会（MLA）趁热打铁，9月在北京举办红肉研讨会，现场展示用澳 洲牛肉制作的川味火锅、夫妻肺片等本土化菜品，彻底把美国牛肉挤出中高端餐饮市场。 而阿根廷瞅准机会，9月22日突然宣布取消大豆出口税，中国买家48小时内火速下单130万吨，直接让美 国豆农的"黄金收获季"变成"破产 ...

Group 1 - The core issue is that U.S. soybean farmers are facing a severe crisis as China, their largest buyer, has not placed any orders during the harvest season, potentially leading to a loss of 14 to 16 million tons of soybean orders [1][2] - The American Soybean Association has warned that the financial pressure on farmers is immense, with falling soybean prices and rising production costs exacerbating the situation [1][2] - The trade war initiated by Trump has resulted in significant losses for U.S. agricultural exports, with soybeans accounting for approximately 71% of the total losses, which amounts to over $27 billion [2] Group 2 - China has significantly reduced its imports of U.S. soybeans, opting instead to source from Brazil, which has become a major supplier [3][4] - In 2024, China's soybean consumption is projected to be around 117 million tons, with over 85% of this demand met through imports, highlighting the ongoing dependency on foreign sources [4] - The market share of U.S. soybeans in China's imports has declined from 34% in 2017 to 22% in 2024, while Brazil's share has increased to 69.16% [4][5]

Core Insights - The recent shift in global grain supply chains is highlighted by a significant shipment of 8 million tons of grain to China, none of which comes from the United States, indicating a decline in U.S. dominance in the grain market [1][4]. Group 1: Transportation Challenges - Transportation issues have become a major barrier for U.S. grain exports, particularly due to hurricanes affecting key ports along the Gulf Coast, which account for 60% of U.S. grain exports [3]. - The international shipping costs have increased by 40% since the beginning of the year, complicating the ability of U.S. grain exporters to fulfill orders [3]. Group 2: Domestic Policy Instability - U.S. domestic policies, including tariffs on agricultural products, have made U.S. soybeans 45% more expensive for Chinese importers compared to Brazilian soybeans, leading to a significant drop in U.S. soybean exports to China [3]. - The U.S. soybean export volume to China has reached a 20-year low, while Brazilian exports have surged to over 50 million tons [3]. Group 3: China's Import Diversification - China is accelerating its "import diversification" strategy, signing a long-term agreement with Brazil for 12 million tons of grain, effectively bypassing U.S. supply chains [4]. - Brazil has become the primary source of grain imports for China, with improvements in logistics and infrastructure reducing the time for Brazilian soybeans to reach Chinese ports to 45 hours [4]. Group 4: Domestic Production Efforts in China - China is enhancing its self-sufficiency in grain production, with significant increases in soybean yields due to advanced agricultural technologies, leading to a projected domestic soybean production of 23 million tons [5]. - The demand for domestic soybeans has increased by 30%, and innovations in feed technology are reducing reliance on imported soybean meal [5]. Group 5: U.S. Agricultural Crisis - The U.S. agricultural sector is facing severe challenges, with soybean futures prices dropping below $10 per bushel and a significant increase in soybean inventory levels [7]. - Many farmers are experiencing substantial losses, with some facing bankruptcy due to high operational costs and loan defaults reaching a 15% rate, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis [7]. Group 6: Political Implications - Political pressures are mounting in U.S. agricultural states, with a notable decline in support for the Republican Party among farmers, indicating potential electoral repercussions [9]. - The U.S. is losing its influence in the global grain market, as efforts to penetrate Southeast Asian and Middle Eastern markets are hindered by high transportation costs and differing dietary preferences [9].

Core Viewpoint - A series of erroneous policies by the United States has significantly contributed to its loss of market share in China's grain market, particularly in soybeans, due to increased costs and competitive disadvantages [1] Group 1: Impact of U.S. Policies - The U.S. has used food as a political bargaining chip, imposing unilateral tariffs on China, which led to retaliatory measures from China and increased shipping costs for U.S. soybeans by 45% per ton compared to Brazilian soybeans [1] - The export contract volume for U.S. soybeans to China has drastically declined, reaching a low of 3 million tons, the lowest in nearly 20 years [1] Group 2: China's Strategic Response - China has accelerated its "import diversification" strategy, signing a long-term soybean supply agreement with Brazil for 12 million tons, thereby reducing its dependency on U.S. grain [1] - The import landscape for Chinese grain has undergone significant changes, with Brazil emerging as the primary supplier due to its competitive advantages [1] Group 3: Infrastructure and Trade Enhancements - China has invested $12 billion to assist Brazil in upgrading its port and railway infrastructure, which has greatly improved the efficiency of soybean transportation, reducing the time to port to 45 hours [1] - The two countries are actively engaging in renminbi settlement for trade, minimizing exchange rate fluctuation risks and facilitating bilateral trade [1]

Group 1 - The core issue is the significant loss of U.S. soybean market share to Brazil and Argentina, with 12 million tons of orders directed to South America, representing half of China's soybean demand for the next two months, leaving U.S. farmers frustrated and with unsold stock [1] - The U.S.-China trade tensions have led to retaliatory tariffs, severely impacting U.S. farmers who rely on the Chinese market for exports of soybeans, corn, and pork, resulting in a drastic reduction in U.S. soybean export contracts [3] - As of the end of July, U.S. soybean export contracts for the new season were only 3 million tons, the lowest in nearly two decades, contrasting sharply with previous years when orders from China were filled well into the year [5] Group 2 - The U.S. agricultural sector is facing challenges not only from China but also from Canada and Mexico, as trade agreements like USMCA may lead to disputes over agricultural subsidies and market access, further complicating the situation for U.S. farmers [7] - The strategy of diversifying supply chains away from the U.S. has been effective for China, which has reduced its dependency on U.S. agricultural products, causing significant economic repercussions for American farmers [7] - The silence of U.S. political leadership, particularly from former President Trump, is viewed as a betrayal of the farmers who supported him, as their interests are being overlooked in favor of political posturing [7]

Core Viewpoint - China has significantly reduced its oil imports from the United States, dropping by 90%, while increasing imports from other countries like Canada, Russia, and the Middle East [5][7]. Group 1: Import Trends - As of March 2025, China's oil imports from the U.S. have plummeted to approximately 3 million barrels per month, a drastic decline from a peak of 29 million barrels [5]. - In contrast, imports from Canada have surged to a record 7.3 million barrels per month during the same period [5]. Group 2: Reasons for Reduced Imports - Economic Cost: U.S. oil is less competitive due to high tariffs and transportation costs, while oil from Russia can be transported via pipeline and settled in RMB [5]. - Energy Security: China is diversifying its energy imports to reduce reliance on any single country, with U.S. energy imports expected to account for only one-third of its commitments by 2025 [5]. - Political Retaliation: In response to U.S. tariffs, China has reduced energy purchases from the U.S. and expanded cooperation with other oil-producing nations such as Saudi Arabia and Brazil [7].

Core Viewpoint - China's imposition of tariffs on U.S. agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and wheat is a necessary countermeasure to the U.S. "tariff stick," aimed at safeguarding national interests and enhancing food security [1] Group 1: Agricultural Import Dynamics - The import volume of grains from the U.S. has significantly decreased, which will not undermine domestic food supply stability but will accelerate the diversification of grain imports [1] - Historically, China relied on the U.S. for over 90% of its soybean and corn imports, highlighting the risks of a single supply channel [1] - Brazil has become the largest source of soybean and corn imports for China, while Australia has taken the lead in wheat imports, reducing dependency on the U.S. [1] Group 2: Domestic Production and Self-Sufficiency - China has implemented the strictest arable land protection policies and strategies to enhance comprehensive grain production capacity, achieving a grain production milestone of 1.4 trillion jin [2] - The country has maintained soybean production above 20 million tons for three consecutive years, improving self-sufficiency and bargaining power in international grain trade [2] - Efforts are being made to stabilize rice and wheat production while developing alternative crops to ensure food security and economic stability [2] Group 3: Grain Reserve and Management - China has established a combined grain reserve system of government and social reserves, ensuring sufficient stock and optimized structure [2] - The government is enhancing grain reserve management and monitoring to ensure the safety and stability of grain supplies [2] - A comprehensive monitoring and early warning system for grain and important agricultural products is being developed to maintain price stability [2] Group 4: Reducing Food Waste and Import Dependency - Initiatives to reduce food loss across various stages of the supply chain are being implemented, effectively increasing food availability and reducing import reliance [3] - The promotion of deep processing of grains and the use of by-products aims to enhance domestic oil self-sufficiency and decrease oilseed imports [3] - Strategies to reduce soybean meal usage through alternative feed ingredients are being adopted to further lower soybean import levels [3] Group 5: Strategic Policy Implementation - A combination of policies is being utilized to enhance food security, focusing on import diversification, capacity enhancement, reserve management, and waste reduction [3]