Core Viewpoint - The company, Xinwufeng (600975), has announced an increase in its R&D expenses for the upcoming years, indicating a commitment to new research projects and associated costs [1] R&D Expenses Summary - For 2024, the company plans to allocate R&D expenses of 76.1646 million yuan [1] - In the first quarter of 2025, R&D expenses are projected to be 23.8232 million yuan [1] - The second quarter of 2025 will see R&D expenses of 51.5276 million yuan [1] - R&D expenses for the third quarter of 2025 are expected to reach 57.7165 million yuan [1] - Cumulatively, R&D expenses for the first three quarters of 2025 are estimated at 133.0673 million yuan [1] - The increase in R&D expenses is primarily due to investments in new research projects, as well as rising costs for testing, materials, and other related expenses [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Pigs**: In a phase of fluctuating downward movement, the price center is expected to decline in the later stage. The supply of pigs is increasing due to a persistently high inventory of breeding sows and improved production performance. The supply pressure in the second half of 2025 remains significant. Although the demand is expected to seasonally pick up, the boost may be limited due to the slow - down of economic development and changes in consumer preferences. The rebound space for hog prices in the second half of the year is limited, and the overall trend will be under pressure. Short - term hog prices may be weak, and the recommended operation is to short on rallies [3]. - **Eggs**: In a phase of fluctuating downward movement, the price center is expected to decline in the later stage. The inventory of laying hens is at a high level year - on - year, and the supply pressure continues to exert downward pressure. The demand has seasonal changes within the year, but is limited by the macro - economy and consumer preferences. The egg price is expected to remain at a low level considering cost and profit issues. The 01 contract is in the peak demand season, but the high supply is expected to lead to insufficient demand absorption, and the overall situation remains under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Section - **Supply Analysis** - **Over - capacity and High - level Supply**: The inventory of breeding sows has been stable at around 40.5 million since June 2024, higher than the official normal level of 30 million. The supply will remain high until the first half of 2026. The farming end's slaughter rhythm may affect the phased supply [10]. - **Weight Impact on Supply**: As the weather turns cold, the overall weight of pigs has increased, and the slaughter weight has continued to rise. With further cooling and a more obvious difference between fat and standard pig prices, the overall slaughter weight is expected to continue to rise [11]. - **Demand Analysis**: As the weather gets colder, the downstream demand enters the peak season, and the slaughter volume shows a slow - growth trend. In addition to actual demand, secondary fattening and frozen product storage form short - term apparent demand. Recently, secondary fattening has been cautious, and the willingness for concentrated slaughter is also low [23]. - **Cost and Profit Analysis** - **Farmers' Losses**: As of November 13, 2025, the breeding cost of large - scale farms in the self - breeding and self - raising model is 12.41 yuan/kg, and that in the model of purchasing piglets is 13.99 yuan/kg [36]. - **Slow Capacity Reduction**: Farmers are pessimistic about the future market. Sow replenishment is mainly for replacement, and the elimination of high - parity sows has increased [37]. - **Policy - Reserve Purchase and Sale**: The state reserve's purchase and sale of pork adjust market supply and demand and guide market sentiment to ensure the stable operation of the pig market. The National Development and Reform Commission will launch the third batch of central pork reserve purchases this year to promote a reasonable rebound in hog prices [44]. - **Spread and Basis Analysis**: Multiple spread and basis data such as the 01, 03, 05, 07, 09, 11 basis of pigs in Henan and the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, 1 - 3 spreads are provided, showing different price differences and trends over time [52][61][67]. 3.2 Egg Section - **Supply Analysis** - **Current Supply Situation**: Egg supply is determined by the inventory of laying hens and the egg - laying rate. Since 2025, the enthusiasm for replenishment has weakened. The decline in replenishment in the third quarter corresponds to a decrease in newly - opened layers in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, the number of culled hens has increased due to low egg prices. The inventory of laying hens in the fourth quarter may decline but remain at a high level year - on - year, with sufficient egg supply [73]. - **Cost Situation**: Recently, the feed cost has rebounded slightly, and the overall breeding cost has not fluctuated much, currently around 3.2 - 3.3 yuan/jin [75]. - **Demand Analysis**: In the long - term, egg consumption is related to population, economic development, and consumer preferences, showing a steady growth trend. In the short - and medium - term, egg demand has obvious seasonality. Currently, the demand is in the off - season, and after the end of e - commerce promotions, the demand has not been significantly boosted, but high vegetable prices still provide some support [85]. - **Substitute Price and Spread Analysis** - **Substitute Price**: The prices of major meats and 28 key vegetables are provided, which may affect egg demand [100]. - **Spread and Basis**: Multiple spread and basis data such as the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads of eggs and the 01, 05, 09, 10, 11, 12 basis of eggs in Hebei are provided, showing different price differences and trends over time [100].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Both the hog and egg markets are in a downward - trending phase, and their price centers are expected to decline in the future [2][3]. - For hogs, due to high levels of breeding sows, increased production performance, and high supply pressure in the second half of 2025, along with limited demand boost from economic slowdown and changing consumer preferences, the rebound space for hog prices is limited. Policy disturbances, sufficient supply, and weak demand acceptance lead to weak market sentiment. Short - term hog prices may be weak, and the recommended strategy is to short on rallies [3]. - For eggs, with the inventory of laying hens at a high level year - on - year, continuous supply pressure, and limited demand fluctuations affected by the macro - economy and consumer preferences, the egg price is expected to remain low. The 01 contract is in the demand peak season, but high supply may lead to insufficient demand acceptance. The overall advice is to short on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Hog Section - **Supply**: - Pork supply depends on the number of hog slaughter and slaughter weight. Since the import accounts for less than 5%, domestic production is the main source. The number of hog slaughter is determined by production capacity, and weight shows seasonal changes within the year. The supply will remain high until the first half of 2026, and attention should be paid to the impact of the slaughter rhythm on short - term supply [9][10]. - The overall slaughter weight is rising as the weather gets colder, and the entry of second - fattening hogs decreases. It is expected to continue rising as the weather further cools and the price difference between fat and standard hogs becomes more obvious [11]. - **Demand**: - In the long - term, pork consumption is related to income, population, and consumption habits; in the medium - term, it has obvious seasonality; in the short - term, it changes with festivals and price fluctuations. Currently, as the weather gets colder, the downstream demand is in the peak season, and the slaughter volume is slowly increasing. Second - fattening and frozen - product storage form short - term demand, but recently, the second - fattening entry is cautious, and the willingness to slaughter en masse is low [23]. - **Cost and Profit**: - As of November 13, the self - breeding and self - raising model's cost is 12.41 yuan/kg, and the cost of purchasing piglets is 13.99 yuan/kg. The breeding industry is in a loss, and the production capacity reduction is slow. Breeders are pessimistic about the future, mainly replacing sows, and increasing the elimination of high - parity sows [36][37]. - **Policy**: - The state uses reserve purchases and sales to regulate market supply and demand and stabilize the hog market. Currently, the market is in the second - level early - warning range of excessive price decline, and the third batch of central pork reserve purchases will be launched [44]. - **Spreads and Basis**: - A series of data on hog spreads and basis are provided, including the basis of different contracts in Henan and various inter - contract spreads, with daily - updated data [52][61][67]. 3.2 Egg Section - **Supply**: - Egg supply is determined by the inventory of laying hens and the egg - laying rate. Since the beginning of 2025, the enthusiasm for replenishment has weakened, and the new production in the fourth quarter will decline. At the same time, the number of culled hens has increased due to low egg prices. Although the inventory of laying hens may decline in the fourth quarter, it will still be at a high level year - on - year, and the egg supply is sufficient. Attention should be paid to the culling situation [73]. - Recently, replenishment has been weak, the culling sentiment has declined, the inventory of laying hens remains high, and the egg supply is still abundant. The feed cost has rebounded slightly, and the overall breeding cost is around 3.2 - 3.3 yuan/jin [74][75]. - **Demand**: - In the long - term, egg consumption is related to population, economy, and consumer preferences, showing a steady growth trend. In the medium - and short - term, it has obvious seasonality, with peaks before traditional festivals. Currently, the demand is in the off - season, and after the end of e - commerce promotions, the demand boost is not obvious, but high vegetable prices still provide some support [85]. - **Spreads and Basis**: - Data on egg spreads and basis are provided, including inter - contract spreads and the basis of different contracts in Hebei, with daily - updated data [100].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The hog market is in a phase of oscillatory decline, and the price center is expected to decrease in the later stage. The supply of hogs is increasing due to a persistently high inventory of breeding sows and improved production performance. Although the demand is expected to seasonally pick up in the second half of 2025, the boost may be limited due to slow economic development and changing consumer preferences. Policy disturbances, sufficient supply, and insufficient demand may lead to weak short - term hog prices. It is recommended to short on rallies [3]. - The egg market is also in an oscillatory decline, and the price center is expected to remain low. The inventory of laying hens is at a high level year - on - year, and the supply pressure persists. The demand has seasonal changes, but is limited by the macro - economy and consumer preferences. The 01 contract is in the peak demand season, but the high supply is expected to outpace the demand, so the overall market is still under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Hog Section 3.1.1 Supply - **Capacity and long - term supply**: The inventory of breeding sows has been stable at around 40.5 million since June 2024, higher than the official normal level of 30 million. The supply will remain high until the first half of 2026, and attention should be paid to the impact of the farmers' slaughter rhythm on short - term supply [10]. - **Weight and short - term supply**: As the weather turns cold, the overall weight of hogs has increased, and the slaughter rhythm is normal. The overall slaughter weight is expected to continue to rise as the weather gets colder and the price difference between fat and standard hogs becomes more obvious [11]. 3.1.2 Demand - With the colder weather, the downstream demand has entered the peak season, and the slaughter volume is slowly increasing. In addition to actual demand, secondary fattening and frozen product storage form short - term apparent demand. Recently, the secondary fattening has been cautious, and the willingness to concentrate on slaughter is not high [23]. 3.1.3 Cost and Profit - As of November 13, 2025, the breeding cost of large - scale farms in the self - breeding and self - raising mode is 12.41 yuan/kg, and that in the mode of purchasing piglets is 13.99 yuan/kg. The breeding enterprises are in a loss state, and the capacity reduction is slow [36]. 3.1.4 Policy - The state will start the third batch of central pork reserve purchases to promote a reasonable rebound in hog prices. There have been multiple rounds of central reserve frozen pork rotation and purchase and storage transactions in the past [44][45]. 3.1.5 Spread and Basis - The report provides data on various hog spreads and bases, such as the 01, 03, 05, 07, 09, 11 contract bases in Henan, and the 1 - 3, 3 - 5, 5 - 7, 7 - 9, 9 - 11, 11 - 1, 1 - 5 spreads [52][67][69]. 3.2 Egg Section 3.2.1 Supply - The supply of eggs is determined by the inventory of laying hens and the laying rate. Since 2025, the enthusiasm for replenishment has weakened, and the number of newly - opened layers in the fourth quarter is expected to decrease. At the same time, the number of culled hens has increased due to low egg prices. The inventory of laying hens may decline in the fourth quarter but will still remain high year - on - year, resulting in sufficient egg supply [73]. 3.2.2 Demand - In the long - term, egg consumption is related to population, economic development, and consumer preferences, showing a steady growth trend. In the short - and medium - term, egg demand has obvious seasonality. Currently, it is the off - season, and although the demand has increased year - on - year, the seasonal demand change is still significant. The end of e - commerce promotions has failed to boost the demand significantly, but the high vegetable prices still provide some support [85]. 3.2.3 Cost - The recent feed cost has rebounded slightly, and the overall breeding cost has not fluctuated much, currently around 3.2 - 3.3 yuan/jin [75]. 3.2.4 Spread and Basis - The report provides data on various egg spreads and bases, such as the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads, and the 01, 05, 09, 10, 11, 12 contract bases in Hebei [100].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that New Wufeng (SH 600975) held its 20th meeting of the 6th Board of Directors on November 14, 2025, via communication, where it reviewed the proposal for the first extraordinary shareholders' meeting of 2025 [1] - For the year 2024, New Wufeng's revenue composition is as follows: livestock industry accounts for 76.4%, wholesale and retail accounts for 22.81%, feed processing accounts for 0.69%, and other businesses account for 0.1% [1] - As of the time of reporting, New Wufeng has a market capitalization of 8 billion yuan [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant block trade involving Muyuan Foods on November 14, with a transaction volume of 710,000 shares and a transaction value of 35.41 million yuan, at a price of 49.87 yuan per share [2] - In the last three months, there have been a total of five block trades for Muyuan Foods, with a cumulative transaction value of 193 million yuan [2] - The closing price of Muyuan Foods on the same day was 49.87 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.38%, with a daily turnover rate of 0.65% and a total trading volume of 1.248 billion yuan [2] Group 2 - The net outflow of main funds for Muyuan Foods was 104 million yuan for the day, and over the past five days, the stock has seen a cumulative increase of 0.32% with a total net outflow of 211 million yuan [2] - The latest margin financing balance for Muyuan Foods is 5.068 billion yuan, which has increased by 30.64 million yuan over the past five days, representing a growth rate of 0.61% [2]

| 权益类证券大宗交易 (协议交易) | | | | | | | | 团 下载 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 成交价格 | 成交量 | 成交金额 | 买方营业部 | 卖方营业部 | | | | | | (元) | (万股/万份) | (万元) | | | | | 2025-11-14 | 002714 | 牧原股份 | 49.87 | 71.00 | 3,540.7 机构专用 | | 机构专用 | | 11月14日，牧原股份大宗交易成交71万股，成交额3540.77万元，占当日总成交额的2.76%，成交价 49.87元，较市场收盘价49.87元持平。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Changjiang Securities indicates that Muyuan Foods achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.779 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 41%. However, the net profit for the third quarter alone was 4.249 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 56% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Muyuan Foods' net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 14.779 billion yuan, reflecting a 41% increase year-on-year [1] - The net profit for the third quarter was 4.249 billion yuan, which is a 56% decrease year-on-year [1] Group 2: Cost Management and Profitability - The company continues to maintain good profitability despite the decline in pig prices, attributed to its cost advantages and optimized production performance [1] - Muyuan Foods has completed its debt reduction target ahead of schedule, indicating effective financial management [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The scale of overseas capital expenditure will be determined based on the progress of overseas business, but it is expected to be lower compared to domestic capital expenditure [1] - The company has transitioned from a high-growth phase to a high-quality development phase, focusing on efficiency improvement, cost reduction, and debt lowering, which is expected to enhance free cash flow levels [1] - Forecasts suggest that Muyuan Foods will achieve net profits of 15.5 billion yuan and 17.6 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, making it a key recommendation for investment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from GF Securities indicates that several listed companies have released monthly operational data, showing an overall increase in pig output in October 2025, despite a recent decline in pig prices below 12 yuan/kg, leading to continued losses across the industry. The expectation is for low piglet prices to persist in the upcoming months due to the off-peak season for restocking, with a recommendation to prioritize leading companies with cost advantages given the current low valuation of the sector [1]. Group 1: Listed Companies' Output Tracking - In October 2025, the overall pig output from 15 listed companies increased by 23.7% month-on-month and 46.4% year-on-year, totaling 18.43 million pigs. Excluding Muyuan Foods, the output was 11.35 million pigs, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 21.8% and a year-on-year increase of 73.0% [2]. - From January to October 2025, the total pig output from listed companies reached 154.79 million, marking a year-on-year growth of 35.0%. Excluding Muyuan Foods, the output was 90.39 million, with a year-on-year increase of 27.5% [2]. - Major companies like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, New Hope, and Dekang Agriculture reported significant increases in pig output, with Muyuan Foods alone contributing 7.08 million pigs in October, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 27.0% and a year-on-year increase of 14.6% [2]. Group 2: Small and Medium-sized Breeding Enterprises - In October, small and medium-sized enterprises such as Tangrenshen, Tiankang Biological, Shennong Group, and Juxing Agriculture reported pig outputs of 619,000; 304,000; 335,000; and 459,000 respectively, with month-on-month increases of 50.7%, 13.7%, 46.5%, and 30.6% [3]. - From January to October 2025, these companies had cumulative outputs of 4.38 million; 2.59 million; 2.45 million; and 3.39 million pigs, with year-on-year increases of 33.2%, 6.5%, 31.0%, and 64.4% respectively [3]. Group 3: Sales Price Analysis - In October, the average sales price for listed companies (excluding Dongrui) was 11.46 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 11.8%. Variations in sales prices were influenced by factors such as sales regions, product quality, and piglet sales proportions [4]. - The average weight of pigs sold in October was approximately 119.74 kg per head, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.8% [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report highlights that the recent decline in pig prices has led to ongoing losses across the industry, with piglet prices expected to remain low in the near term. The current industry losses, combined with a trend towards reducing production capacity, suggest a potential acceleration in the pace of capacity reduction [5]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with cost advantages, specifically highlighting Wens Foodstuff Group and Muyuan Foods as key investment targets, while also suggesting attention to Dekang Agriculture and New Hope. For potential recovery plays, Zhengbang Technology is noted, along with small and medium-sized enterprises like Tiankang Biological, Shennong Group, and Tangrenshen [5].

农产品日报 | 2025-11-14 供需格局延续，猪价震荡运行 市场分析 10月份入场的二次育肥预计出栏时间会在冬至前后，如果价格下降或将有一定提前出栏的风险。从目前的生猪存 栏体重来看未来生猪供应仍处于过剩状态，未来叠加二次育肥的出栏会进一步增加供应压力，整体供强需弱格局 难改。 策略 谨慎偏空 风险 政策变化 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2601合约11860元/吨，较前交易日变动+65.00元/吨，幅度+0.55%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.86元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差 LH01+0，较前交易日变动-64；江苏地区 外三元生猪价格 11.98元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.06元/公斤，现货基差LH01+120，较前交易日变动-125；四川地 区外三元生猪价格11.33元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.05元/公斤，现货基差LH01-530，较前交易日变动-114。 据农业农村部监测，11月13日"农产品批发价格200指数"为125.64，比昨天上升0.09个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为127.76，比昨天上升0.10个点。全国农产品 ...