欢迎扫描下方二维码关注： ⇧ 点 蓝字 关注 "蓝色柳林财税室" 风险防范小贴士 企业所得税研发费用加计扣除 企业研发费用加计扣除政策能有效激励企业加大研发投入，支持科技创新，但在享受这一优惠政策时，企业需留意潜在的税 收风险。下面为大家梳理了6个常见风险点及应对方法，助力企业合规享受政策红利。 政策依据： 《财政部 国家税务总局 科技部关于完善研究开发费用税前加计扣除政策的通知》（财税〔2015〕119号）； 《国家税务总局关于企业研究开发费用税前加计扣除政策有关问题的公告》（国家税务总局公告2015年第97号）； PPPAAARRRTTT...000111 行业界定有误 1 风险描述 误判企业所属行业，将负面清单行业企业纳入研发费用加计扣除范围。不适用税前加计扣除政策的行业有烟草 制造业、住宿和餐饮业、批发和零售业、房地产业、租赁和商务服务业、娱乐业以及财政部和国家税务总局规 定的其他行业 。 2 风险防范手段 企业应根据《国民经济行业分类与代码（GB/4754 -2011）》等相关标准，结合自身实际经营活动，准确判断主营业务 所属行业。 对于业务多元化的企业，计算主营业务收入占收入总额（需减除不征税收入 ...

消息面，中国人民银行行长潘功胜宣布，降准0.5个百分点，向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元，并降低 政策利率0.1个百分点。适度宽松货币政策，有利于市场流动性改善，提振市场信心。 涨幅居前的还有煤炭股。南南资源（01229.HK）涨13.46%，中国神华（01088.HK）涨1.53%，中煤能 源（01898.HK）涨1.49%。 5月7日，港股三大指数高开低走。截至收盘，恒生指数涨0.13%，国企指数跌0.23%，恒生科技指数跌 0.75%。 分板块看，消费板块中，汽车经销商、体育用品、香港零售股、奢侈品股、节假日概念等板块都表现不 错。成分股中，中升控股（00881.HK）涨4.8%,安踏体育（02020.HK）涨1.86%,361度（01361.HK）涨 1.88%，新秀丽（01910.HK）涨3.35%，普拉达（01913.HK）涨4.41%，携程集团-S（09961.HK）涨 2.29%。 消息上，在今天（7日）举行的国新办新闻发布会上，中国人民银行行长潘功胜表示，将完善存款准备 金制度，阶段性将汽车金融公司、金融租赁公司的存款准备金率，从目前的5%调降至0%。此外，潘功 胜还表示，将设立5000亿元服 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has identified Philip Morris (PM.US) as one of the most attractive consumer staples stocks for investors, assigning it an "overweight" rating, highlighting its defensive product portfolio and benefits from a weaker dollar [1] Group 1: Investment Potential - Philip Morris is noted for having the highest long-term growth potential among large-cap consumer goods peers, with a current stock price approximately 27% below its theoretical fair value based on long-term organic sales growth and 2026 price-to-earnings ratio analysis [1] - Analysts expect the gap in growth between Philip Morris and its peers to widen, with the share of smoke-free products in sales structure projected to increase from 55% to 65% over the next five years, which is anticipated to narrow the current discount [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - The company reported first-quarter earnings that exceeded market expectations, with adjusted operating profit of $3.79 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $3.61 billion [1] - Earnings per share were reported at $1.69, exceeding market expectations of $1.61 and up from $1.50 in the same period last year [1] - Notably, the smoke-free business accounted for 42% of total net revenue in the quarter, contributing 44% to total gross profit, with smoke-free products available in 95 markets and multi-category smoke-free product offerings deployed in 46 markets [1]

证券研究报告 悦己消费和优质国货高增，稳健白马筑底 ——轻工制造24A&25Q1业绩综述 2025年05月04日 行业评级：看好 分析师 史凡可 傅嘉成 曾伟 褚远熙 陈秋露 01rto 经济大盘乏力， 消费结构性景气 2 邮箱 shifanke@stocke.com.cn fujiacheng@stocke.com.cn zengwei@stocke.com.cn chuyuanxi@stocke.com.cn chenqiulu@stocke.com.cn 证书编号 S1230520080008 S1230521090001 S1230524090011 S1230524090009 S1230525040001 1.2 24A&25Q1综述：家居造纸筑底、个护保持成长 ne 24A&25Q1综述：情绪消费和优质国货成长凸显 子赛道具体表现：收入端文娱个护最优，利润端包装稳定性最强 3 1.1 复盘24Q4&25Q1：大盘消费疲软，以潮玩、宠物为代表的情绪消费类资产表现超额明显，此外部分优质国货产品创新能力突出， 借力差异化渠道实现较好的成长势能，持续重视成长资产布局，例如泡泡玛特、布鲁可、乖宝宠物、中宠 ...

| 华安研究 2025年5月金股组合 | 归母净利润（百万） | 归母净利润增速 | 营业收入（百万） | 营业收入增速 | eps | pe(pb有说明) | 行业 | 金股代码 | 金股 | 核心推荐逻辑 | 风险提示 | 研究员 | 报告依据 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2023A | 2024A/E | 2025E | 2023A | 2024A/E | 2025E | 2023A | 2024A/E | 2025E | 2023A | 2024A/E | 2025E | 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall inventory cycle in the U.S. is likely transitioning towards an active destocking phase by 2025, with significant implications for various industries [1][2][3]. Overall Inventory Cycle - In February, U.S. total inventory increased by 2.45% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of 2.25%. Sales increased by 3.45% year-on-year, down from 3.69% [2][3]. - The inventory cycle remains in a passive restocking phase due to "import grabbing," with Q1 net imports increasing by $359.26 billion year-on-year, of which over one-third ($129.71 billion) converted into inventory [2][3]. Industry Inventory Cycle - Among 14 major industry categories, 8 are in a passive restocking phase, including upstream chemical products, building materials, midstream electrical equipment, and downstream durable consumer goods [4]. - Historical inventory percentiles show that total inventory is at a historical percentile of 30.5%, with building materials at 71.5%, automotive parts at 67.8%, and paper and forestry products at 53.8% [4]. Upstream Inventory Status - Half of the upstream industries are in passive restocking, while the other half are in active destocking [5][6][7][8]. - Specific sectors like oil, natural gas, and consumer fuels are in active destocking as of February 2025 [5]. Midstream Inventory Status - Inventory status is mixed, with paper and forestry products in active restocking, while electrical equipment and transportation are in passive restocking [9][10]. - Mechanical manufacturing is currently in passive destocking [9]. Downstream Inventory Status - The current passive restocking phase is prolonged, indicating potential "import grabbing" demand [11]. - Automotive parts are transitioning to active destocking as of February 2025, while other sectors like household durable goods and textiles remain in passive restocking [11].

欢迎扫描下方二维码关注： 来源： 北京税务 供稿：北京门头沟税务 不适用研发费用加计扣除政策 的行业，包括烟草制造业、住宿和 餐饮业、批发和零售业、房地产业、 租赁和商务服务业、娱乐业、财政 部和国家税务总局规定的其他行业。 热点问题 1 适用研发费加计扣除政策的研发活动是指什么? 根据财税〔2015〕119号的规定，研发活动是指 企业为获得科学与技术新知识，创造性运用科学技术 新知识，或实质性改进技术、产品（服务）、工艺而 持续进行的具有明确目标的系统性活动。 2 哪些活动不适用加计扣除政策? 为提高政策的精准性、可操作性，财税〔2015〕 119号文明确以下活动不适用加计扣除政策： 1 企业产品（服务）的常规性升级； ℓ 对某项科研成果的直接应用，如直接采用公开 的新工艺、材料、装置、产品、服务或知识等; 罚 市场调查研究、效率调查或管理研究； 団 作为工业 (服务)流程环节或常规的质量控制、 测试分析、维修维护; 0 社会科学、艺术或人文学方面的研究。 8 哪些行业不适用研发费加计扣除政策? 财税〔2015〕119号第四条列举了不适用研发费 用加计扣除政策的行业，包括烟草制造业、住宿和餐 饮业、批发和零 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the China Securities Index for Hong Kong-listed tradable mainland consumption, which has seen a recent increase of 0.57% to 1230.76 points, despite a decline of 8.09% over the past month [1] - The index has shown a year-to-date increase of 8.81% and a three-month increase of 7.24%, indicating a positive trend over a longer period [1] - The index is part of a series that includes HKT Hong Kong real estate, HKT mainland consumption, and HKT mainland banking, reflecting the overall performance of related thematic securities in the Hong Kong market [1] Group 2 - The top ten holdings of the index include BYD Company (12.92%), Alibaba-W (12.58%), JD Group-SW (8.05%), Trip.com Group-S (7.63%), Meituan-W (7.32%), Pop Mart (4.52%), Xpeng Motors-W (3.96%), Li Auto-W (3.96%), Yum China (3.88%), and Anta Sports (3.65%) [1] - The index's holdings are entirely composed of securities listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with the passenger vehicles and parts sector accounting for 29.45%, consumer services for 23.30%, and retail for 21.88% [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December, ensuring that the weight factors are updated accordingly [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, but showed signs of recovery in Q1 2025, particularly in non-recurring net profit, indicating potential growth in various business segments [1][7]. Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.573 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.45%, and a net profit of 252 million yuan, down 44.17% [1]. - In Q4 2024, revenue was 1.034 billion yuan, up 14.90% year-on-year, while net profit was 80 million yuan, down 32.01% [1]. - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 859 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.45%, with net profit of 77 million yuan, up 37.81% [1]. Market Insights - The global smart controller market is projected to grow from 1.89 trillion USD in 2023 to approximately 1.98 trillion USD in 2024, with China's market expected to grow from 3.44 trillion yuan to 3.87 trillion yuan, reflecting a CAGR of 13.01% [1]. - The global new tobacco market is expected to grow by 12.7% in 2024, reaching 38.85 billion USD [2]. - The Chinese automotive electronics market reached 1.0973 trillion yuan in 2023, with an expected growth to 1.1585 trillion yuan in 2024 [2]. Product Performance - Revenue from smart control components was 1.145 billion yuan, down 13.96% year-on-year, primarily due to delays in new project capacity [3]. - Revenue from innovative consumer electronics was 1.137 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.55% year-on-year, with electronic cigarette sales showing stable growth [3]. - Automotive electronics revenue was 614 million yuan, up 19.43% year-on-year, benefiting from policies promoting vehicle upgrades [3]. - Health environment products saw a significant decline in revenue, down 53.14% year-on-year, due to increased market competition [3]. Financial Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 28.36% and 28.82%, respectively, showing a slight year-on-year decrease and increase [5]. - Operating cash flow for 2024 was 431 million yuan, down 37% year-on-year [6]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued improvement in performance across multiple business segments, including electronic cigarettes, automotive electronics, and health environment products, with projected revenues of 4.494 billion yuan, 5.366 billion yuan, and 6.031 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [7].

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant transformation in various industries driven by artificial intelligence and large model technologies, with a focus on the initiatives taken by Huangpi Tobacco Bureau to leverage digitalization for high-quality development [1] Group 1: Digital Transformation Strategy - Huangpi Tobacco views digital transformation as a key strategy to overcome management bottlenecks and enhance service efficiency [2] - The training session emphasized the application potential of large model tools like DeepSeek in data analysis, market forecasting, and customer service [2] Group 2: Practical Application of AI - The training adopted a problem-oriented approach, demonstrating the operational logic of AI-assisted decision-making systems through simulations [4] - AI systems can automatically identify abnormal orders and predict compliance risks, significantly improving the efficiency of clue screening in market regulation [4] - An intelligent response module based on natural language processing can analyze retail inquiries in real-time, reducing response delays [4] Group 3: Long-term Empowerment and Ecosystem Building - The training serves as a starting point for deeper reforms within Huangpi Tobacco, with plans to integrate specialized resources for digital applications in market regulation [5] - The bureau aims to enhance internal management efficiency and improve the precision of market regulation and customer service through a dual approach of "technology + business" [5] - Future collaborations with universities and technology companies are planned to position Huangpi Tobacco as a benchmark for intelligent transformation in the industry [5]