Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **vaping industry in the United States** and its regulatory environment, particularly focusing on the impact of flavor bans and compliance issues on market dynamics [1][4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - Following the ban on fruit-flavored vaping products in the U.S., the market experienced a temporary decline, but disposable e-cigarettes have since dominated the market due to regulatory loopholes, capturing **80% of the market share** [1][4]. - The **illegal vaping market** grew from **$12.9 billion** in 2021 to **$21 billion** in 2024, marking a **63% increase**, while the compliant market shrank by **14%** to **$5.87 billion** [1][4][5]. - The U.S. government has been criticized for insufficient regulation of disposable e-cigarettes, which has led to a significant squeeze on compliant brands like British American Tobacco and G O, with Views experiencing a **5% decline** in 2024 [1][5]. - Starting in 2024, U.S. Customs has tightened regulations on e-cigarette imports, increasing costs and limiting the influx of illegal products, which is expected to improve the operating environment for compliant products [1][6]. - The FDA approved four menthol-flavored e-cigarettes in June 2024 and 20 ZYN nicotine pouches in January 2025, indicating a potential easing of restrictions on certain flavors, which could benefit compliant product sales [1][9]. Additional Important Content - China's exports of e-cigarettes to the U.S. totaled **$812 million** in May 2025, reflecting a **7.38%** month-over-month decline and a **19.52%** year-over-year decline [1][7]. - The European market has begun tightening regulations on disposable e-cigarettes and certain flavors since 2024, which primarily affects domestic white-label companies while benefiting international brands [1][10]. - The global new tobacco industry is transitioning into a healthier development phase after experiencing regulatory restrictions, with heated tobacco and nicotine pouch products expected to see significant growth in the coming years [2][12]. - The domestic market in China has stabilized since the implementation of the e-cigarette law in 2022, allowing only traditional flavor sales, with a focus on heated tobacco and nicotine products as key growth areas [2][13].

Group 1 - The stock of Smoore International (06969) increased by over 6%, currently up 6.29% at HKD 21.64, with a trading volume of HKD 501 million [1] - Smoore International is holding a board meeting today to consider and approve the interim results for the six months ending June 30, 2025, and to declare an interim dividend if applicable [1] - The company anticipates revenue of RMB 6.013 billion for the first half of 2025, representing an 18% year-on-year growth; however, it expects a pre-tax profit of approximately RMB 629 million to RMB 769 million, a decrease of 5% to 23% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The decline in profit is primarily attributed to an increase of RMB 176 million in non-cash share-based payment expenses, as well as significant growth in distribution, sales expenses, and legal service costs [1] - UBS noted that the preliminary results indicate an 18% year-on-year revenue growth for the first half, driven by a recovery in the vape business, with increased shipments ahead of U.S. tariffs [1] - The company expects a year-on-year decline in net profit of 21% to 35% in the second half, mainly due to high expenses related to stock options granted in the fourth quarter and S&D [1] Group 3 - Zheshang Securities believes that British American Tobacco is heavily investing in resources and marketing for Glo Hilo, with positive trial feedback in Japan and early deployments in some European countries, indicating a favorable outlook for future volume growth [1] - Additionally, the growth of oral tobacco remains strong, and the regulation of illegal vaping products is expected to lead to a recovery, maintaining a positive outlook for core supplier Smoore International [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve strong revenue growth in 25H1, with a forecasted revenue of 60.13 billion, representing an 18% year-on-year increase, outperforming market expectations [1] - Profit is projected to decline to between 4.43 billion and 5.41 billion, a decrease of 21% to 35% year-on-year, with an average estimate of 4.92 billion, indicating a significant narrowing of the profit decline in Q2 [1][2] - The decline in profit is attributed to increased incentive costs, marketing investments, and legal service fees, with adjusted net profit expected to be between 6.88 billion and 7.87 billion, reflecting a year-on-year change of -9% to +4% [2] Revenue Insights - The company's revenue from vaping products has shown resilience due to regulatory improvements, with all products being compliant [3] - The implementation of bans on disposable e-cigarettes in various regions, including the UK and New Zealand, has led to a shift towards open and refillable e-cigarettes, benefiting the company's sales [3] Future Outlook - The recent trial sales of HNB products in Japan have received positive feedback, with expectations for significant market share growth as the product is set for nationwide launch on September 1 [4] - The pricing strategy for Glo Hilo in Japan has been adjusted to enhance supply chain value distribution, indicating a strong competitive position [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 131.61 billion, 155.90 billion, and 186.33 billion from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.55%, 18.45%, and 19.52% respectively [5] - Net profit is expected to reach 13.11 billion, 20.40 billion, and 27.63 billion during the same period, with growth rates of 0.57%, 55.68%, and 35.40% respectively [5] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a PE ratio of 90.72X, 58.28X, and 43.04X for the years 2025 to 2027 [5]