Economic Growth and Policy Adjustments - China's economy achieved a growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year, despite external pressures and internal challenges [1][2] - The upcoming Central Political Bureau meeting at the end of July will assess the current economic situation and outline policies for the second half of the year [1] - Experts anticipate that counter-cyclical adjustment policies will be optimized to enhance employment and economic stability [1][7] Consumer Spending and Investment - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has allocated 690 billion yuan in special bonds to support the "old for new" consumption policy, with plans for additional funding in October [2][5] - The "old for new" policy has significantly boosted sales, with over 1.6 trillion yuan in sales generated from five categories of consumer goods by mid-2025 [3] - Investment in equipment and tools saw a year-on-year increase of 17.3% in the first half of 2025, driven by policies related to "two new" initiatives [3] Employment and Social Policies - The average urban unemployment rate in China was 5.2% in the first half of the year, showing a slight decrease [7] - The government has introduced 19 policy measures to stabilize employment, focusing on supporting businesses and enhancing job training [7] - There is a push for policies that enhance social security and healthcare to further support employment and consumer spending [8] Future Policy Directions - Experts suggest expanding subsidy policies to include sectors like tourism and dining to further stimulate consumption [4][5] - The government aims to optimize the "old for new" consumption policy and enhance the overall consumer environment [5][6] - There is a call for a coordinated approach to fiscal and monetary policies to ensure economic stability and growth [8]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it suggests a positive outlook for leading companies in the electric bicycle sector due to the new national standards [2][4]. Core Insights - The implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles on September 1 is expected to benefit leading companies in the industry, as it will lead to a market reshuffle and increased demand for compliant products [2][4]. - The Hainan Free Trade Port's upcoming closure on December 18, 2025, is anticipated to benefit sectors such as duty-free and tourism, with significant tax policy changes that will enhance market activity [2][4]. - The consumer sector showed a positive performance in the last week of July, with various sub-sectors experiencing notable gains, indicating a recovery trend in consumer spending [4][6]. Summary by Sections Market Weekly Review - The consumer sector saw an overall increase, with specific sub-sectors like beauty care (+5.42%) and retail (+2.65%) leading the gains. Notable stocks included ST Xifa (+9.89%) and Rainbow Group (+37.81%) [4][6]. - The new electric bicycle standard is expected to drive demand and push out non-compliant brands, benefiting major players with strong brand recognition and resources [2][4]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - The Ministry of Civil Affairs and the Ministry of Finance announced a subsidy program for elderly care services, which will begin in select provinces in July 2025, potentially boosting related service providers [15][18]. - The Hainan Free Trade Port's tax policy changes will significantly expand the range of zero-tariff goods, enhancing the competitiveness of local businesses and stimulating trade [17][18]. - The report highlights the ongoing challenges in the home appliance sector, with a projected decrease in air conditioner production due to unmet sales targets during promotional events [15][18].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The lead market shows a situation of increasing supply and demand with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices. Due to the warm domestic market sentiment, lead prices are expected to trade in a range in the short term [1]. - The zinc market has an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season with continuous inventory accumulation, resulting in a weak fundamental situation. However, strong market bullish sentiment may lead to zinc prices trading in a range in the short term [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Data**: On July 28, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,750 yuan/ton, up 0.30% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract was 16,955 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) was 2,020.50 dollars/ton, down 0.12%. The ratio of Shanghai - London lead prices was 8.39, up 0.51% [1]. - **Industry Operation Data**: From July 18 to July 24, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 63.37%, a 2.5 - percentage - point decrease; the weekly operating rate of recycled lead enterprises was 40.7%, a 2.8 - percentage - point increase; the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 71.86%, a 0.9 - percentage - point increase. The electric bicycle trade - in program has boosted the industry, with a 113.5% average monthly - on - month increase in sales from January to June 2025, and a 27.6% year - on - year increase in the production of the top ten brands [1]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. A primary lead smelter had equipment - related maintenance last week, leading to a slight decline in production. For recycled lead, the price of waste lead - acid batteries is likely to rise, and some smelters have reduced or stopped production due to raw material shortages or cost - price inversions. As the inventory of electrolytic lead in factories decreases, the market's acceptance of high - priced recycled lead has improved. The market still anticipates peak - season consumption, but most enterprises suspended purchases at the end of the month for inventory checks [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: On July 28, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,700 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract was 22,885 yuan/ton, down 0.56%. The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) was 2,829.00 dollars/ton, down 0.40%. The ratio of Shanghai - London zinc prices was 8.09, down 0.16% [1]. - **Industry Operation Data**: From July 18 to July 24, the weekly operating rate of galvanizing enterprises was 59.42%, a 0.30 - percentage - point increase; the weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 51.03%, a 0.92 - percentage - point decrease; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 55.99%, a 0.33 - percentage - point decrease. The total inventory of zinc concentrates at major Chinese ports was 35.4 million tons, a decrease of 8.6 million tons from the previous week [1]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: Smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. Domestic smelters are negotiating next - month's zinc processing fees, and it is expected that processing fees will continue to rise in August. With the continuous strength of zinc prices during the week, downstream off - season purchases have significantly decreased [1].

Core Viewpoint - The new mandatory national standard for electric bicycles, effective from September 1, aims to enhance safety and user experience through comprehensive regulations across the entire industry chain [1][2]. Group 1: Implementation and Regulatory Framework - The implementation of the new standard involves a coordinated effort from multiple departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, and the National Fire Rescue Administration [1]. - The new regulations cover seven key areas: production management, certification management, sales supervision, registration management, replacement of old vehicles, consumer rights protection, and the establishment of long-term mechanisms [1]. Group 2: Safety Enhancements - The new standard optimizes fire resistance and flame retardant technical indicators, limiting the plastic weight ratio to below 5.5% of the total vehicle weight, which helps slow down fire spread and reduce toxic gas emissions during a fire [2]. - Key parameters such as the maximum motor speed are strictly limited to prevent overspeeding, while torque limits for low-speed operation are increased to ensure performance in special conditions like climbing [4]. - The maximum braking distance has been reduced to about half of the previous standard, lowering the risk of collision accidents [4]. Group 3: Technical Improvements - Enhanced anti-tampering technical indicators and testing methods for battery packs, controllers, and speed limiters have been introduced, significantly raising the threshold for illegal modifications [5]. - Dynamic safety monitoring requirements for critical safety information, such as battery status, have been added to help consumers identify and address anomalies promptly [7]. Group 4: Consumer Experience - The weight limit for lead-acid battery models has been adjusted from 55 kg to 63 kg, allowing for a range of 60-70 km on a single charge, thus reducing charging frequency and improving user experience [9]. - The requirement for pedal assist devices has been removed, enhancing product practicality and reducing production costs, while also providing consumers with more model options [9]. - The new standard encourages the installation of safety features such as rearview mirrors and turn signals to improve vehicle safety [9]. Group 5: Certification and Compliance - From September 1, the production of electric bicycles under the old standard is prohibited, and sales of such bicycles will cease by December 1 [10]. - Consumers are advised to check for the CCC certification mark on electric bicycles, indicating compliance with the new mandatory national standards [10]. - A product certificate must accompany each electric bicycle sold, allowing consumers to verify product details and ensure compliance with the new standards [12].

Core Points - The new national standard for electric bicycles will be implemented on September 1, aiming to enhance safety by optimizing materials, controlling speed limits, and regulating modifications [2][3] - There are two critical timelines: all new electric bicycles produced after September 1 must comply with the new standards, and from December 1, all bicycles sold must meet these standards [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology encourages consumers to prioritize purchasing new standard vehicles to minimize safety risks [4] Industry Impact - Approximately 380 million electric bicycles are currently in use in China, with over 12 million old models replaced through trade-in programs since last year [5] - Sales of old standard electric bicycles will continue until December 1, after which only new standard vehicles will be available for sale [7] - Some brands are already adjusting their online sales models in anticipation of the new standards, leading to inventory shortages or changes in product listings [4][7]

Group 1 - The trade volume between China and the European Union has significantly increased, with Guangzhou Customs reporting an import and export trade of approximately 145.43 billion yuan in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.9% [1] - Guangzhou Xinyi Vehicle Co., Ltd. has seen a notable increase in exports of lithium battery mountain bikes to Europe, with a value of nearly 28 million yuan in the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year increase of 35.6% [1] - The demand for cooling appliances such as air conditioners and refrigerators has surged in Europe due to high summer temperatures, leading to increased exports from the Shunde district, with an average of 600 containers of appliances shipped daily [1] Group 2 - Midea Group has capitalized on the rising demand for air conditioners in Europe by launching a wind-free air conditioner that utilizes AI technology to adjust airflow based on human positioning, resulting in nearly 10 billion yuan in exports of home appliances this year [2] - The local customs in Shunde are actively supporting home appliance companies in expanding their market in Europe by promoting the benefits of AEO policies and enhancing management standards [4] - Guangzhou Customs is implementing various facilitation measures such as "two-step declaration" and "online appointment customs clearance" to improve logistics channels between the Greater Bay Area and European countries [4]

记者丨 冉黎黎 编辑丨周上祺 封面图丨梁远浩 摄 7月24日，工业和信息化部举行"电动自行车相关标准政策"新闻发布会，介绍新版电动自行车 强制性国家标准及《关于强化电动自行车强制性国家标准实施 加快新产品供应的意见》（以 下简称《意见》）有关情况。当日，《意见》与发布会同步上网发布。 《意见》从生产端、流通端、消费端、管理端、服务端等"五端"着手提出工作要求。其中， 在生产方面， 提出根据新标准实施日期（2025年9月1日）倒排新产品工期等，在销售方面， 则提到了销售过渡期，即2025年8月31日及之前出厂或者进口的不符合新标准但符合旧版本标 准的产品可以销售至2025年11月30日。 另外，为稳妥推进在用不符合新标准的电动自行车更 新换代，《意见》提到，各地有关部门要积极提请同级党委政府加大以旧换新政策宣传和补 贴力度，细化补贴规则。 不过，电动自行车淘汰置换是个长期的过程。目前全国在用的电动自行车约3.8亿辆，其中还 有很多是老旧车和改装车。北京师范大学政府管理研究院原副院长、中国商业经济学会副会 长宋向清对21世纪经济报道记者表示，要推进新国标执行、加快新产品供应，在流通销售环 节上也存在难点，此外，短 ...

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the new mandatory national standard for electric bicycles, effective from September 1, aims to enhance safety and consumer experience for over 350 million users in China [1][2]. Group 1: Implementation and Regulation - The new standard requires a systematic approach across multiple sectors, including production management, sales supervision, and consumer rights protection [2]. - The four departments involved aim to accelerate the supply of high-quality electric bicycles that comply with the new standards [1][2]. Group 2: Safety Enhancements - The new standard optimizes fire resistance indicators, limiting plastic weight to below 5.5% of the total vehicle weight, which helps reduce fire risks [2][4]. - Key parameters such as maximum motor speed are strictly limited to prevent overspeeding, and the maximum braking distance is reduced by about half to lower collision risks [4]. - Dynamic safety monitoring of battery status is introduced to help consumers identify potential issues promptly [4]. Group 3: Consumer Guidance - Consumers are advised to look for the CCC certification and product quality certificates when purchasing electric bicycles to ensure compliance with the new standards [7][5]. - Currently, most vehicles available for sale are still based on the old standard, with a transition period until December 1 for both old and new standard vehicles to coexist [8][10]. Group 4: Industry Adaptation - Manufacturers are required to adjust their production processes and materials to meet the new standards, with a focus on enhancing safety features [11][13]. - The new standard serves as a significant test for production companies, allowing leading firms to leverage their technological advantages [11][13].

7月24日，工业和信息化部举行"电动自行车相关标准政策"新闻发布会，介绍新版电动自行车强制性国 家标准(下称"新国标")及《关于强化电动自行车强制性国家标准实施加快新产品供应的意见》有关情 况。 对于消费者来说，新国标实施后，该如何选购靠谱有保障的车型？市场监管总局认证监管司一级巡视员 李春江也在发布会上给出答案。 工业和信息化部消费品工业司司长何亚琼介绍道，新国标修订历时8个月，共开展了70余次调研、160余 次技术研讨、220余次试验验证、5.4万条意见建议处理、近13万份问卷调查，修改完善了近200个重要 指标条目。 具体来看，为推动存量不符合新标准的电动自行车有序退出市场，有效压减消费者身边的安全隐患，各 地有关部门将积极加大以旧换新政策宣传和补贴力度，对名下无电动自行车且首次购买符合新国标要求 新车的个人消费者，可给予补贴。引导快递、外卖行业和党政机关、事业单位人员率先使用符合新国标 要求的电动自行车。 此外，电动自行车用锂离子电池健康评估及报废回收行动也会进一步实施，有望加速淘汰存在安全隐 患、不适合继续使用的老旧锂离子电池电动自行车。 新国标究竟会给电动自行车产品乃至整个行业带来怎样的作用？这是 ...

21世纪经济报道见习记者冉黎黎北京报道 7月24日，工业和信息化部举行"电动自行车相关标准政策"新闻发布会，介绍新版电动自行车强制性国 家标准及《关于强化电动自行车强制性国家标准实施加快新产品供应的意见》(以下简称《意见》)有关 情况。当日，《意见》与发布会同步上网发布。 《意见》从生产端、流通端、消费端、管理端、服务端等"五端"着手提出工作要求。其中，在生产方 面，提出根据新标准实施日期(2025年9月1日)倒排新产品工期等，在销售方面，则提到了销售过渡期， 即2025年8月31日及之前出厂或者进口的不符合新标准但符合旧版本标准的产品可以销售至2025年11月 30日。另外，为稳妥推进在用不符合新标准的电动自行车更新换代，《意见》提到，各地有关部门要积 极提请同级党委政府加大以旧换新政策宣传和补贴力度，细化补贴规则。 不过，电动自行车淘汰置换是个长期的过程。目前全国在用的电动自行车约3.8亿辆，其中还有很多是 老旧车和改装车。北京师范大学政府管理研究院原副院长、中国商业经济学会副会长宋向清对21世纪经 济报道记者表示，要推进新国标执行、加快新产品供应，在流通销售环节上也存在难点，此外，短期 内，符合新标准的 ...