Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent market movements in China, highlighting the impact of U.S. tariffs and the response from Chinese authorities to stimulate the economy and stabilize the capital market. Group 1: Market Reactions - The U.S. announced a 104% tariff on certain imports from China, effective immediately, which initially caused A-shares to open lower, with the ChiNext index dropping by 3% [1] - Despite the negative opening, the market rebounded in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up by 1.31% and the Shenzhen Component up by 1.22% [6] - A total of 129 stocks hit the daily limit up, indicating strong buying interest, particularly in the military industry [6] Group 2: Government Stimulus Measures - Reports emerged that Chinese leaders plan to hold a meeting to discuss measures to boost economic growth and stabilize the capital market, including potential export tax rebates [1] - The meeting is expected to involve senior officials from various government and regulatory bodies, indicating a coordinated effort to address economic challenges [1] Group 3: U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surged over 20 basis points to 4.9553%, attributed to liquidity issues rather than fundamental factors [2] - Analysts noted that recent market volatility has led to a large-scale unwinding of basis trades, which could exacerbate market pressures [2][3] Group 4: Sector Performance - The military sector saw significant gains, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up, driven by expectations of increased orders as part of China's military modernization efforts [6] - The consumer sector also rebounded, particularly in the duty-free segment, following the announcement of new tax refund measures for outbound travelers [7] Group 5: Economic and Political Commentary - Ray Dalio highlighted that the current market turmoil is part of a broader structural collapse in global monetary and political orders, emphasizing the unsustainable nature of current debt levels [8][9] - The article suggests that the interplay of these macroeconomic trends is crucial for understanding future market movements [10]

今日各行业表现（截至上午收盘） 注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 纺织服饰 | 1.48 | 64.32 | 19.01 | 探路者 | 15.46 | | 美容护理 | 1.09 | 19.81 | -17.91 | 诺邦股份 | 10.00 | | 银行 | 0.97 | 145.33 | -10.96 | 长沙银行 | 3.17 | | 轻工制造 | 0.96 | 76.30 | -10.04 | 海鸥住工 | 10.18 | | 通信 | 0.94 | 283.90 | 15.29 | 东土科技 | 13.43 | | 机械设备 | 0.90 | 688.18 | 1.39 | 莱赛激光 | 13.96 | | 计算机 | 0.66 | 528.03 | -13.55 | 立方数科 | 10.23 | | 非银金融 | 0.65 | 223.02 | -0.24 | 湘财股份 | 10 ...

一 政策加持叠加资金青睐，港股消费启新程 1 消费复苏正当时，收入上扬拓宽消费增长空间 随着我国经济结构的转型升级，第三产业在经济发展中占据主导地位。我国第三产业（服务业）增加值占GDP比重连续10年超过50%；根据国家统计局数 据，2024年全年分产业看，第一产业增加值91414亿元，增长3.5%；第二产业增加值492087亿元，增长5.3%；第三产业增加值765583亿元，增长 5.0%。三大产业增加值占GDP的比重分别为6.8%、36.5%和56.7%，对经济增长的贡献率分别为5.2%、38.6%和56.2%，第三产业成为经济增长的重要 驱动力。 消费是拉动经济增长的"主引擎"。2024年，在消费品以旧换新及一揽子增量政策的带动下，消费潜力不断释放，为促进国民经济稳定增长提供有效支撑。 2024年，最终消费支出对经济增长贡献率为44.5%，拉动GDP增长2.2个百分点。 一、 政策加持叠加资金青睐，港股消费启新程 消费复苏正当时，收入上扬拓宽消费增长空间： 我国第三产业增加值占GDP比 重连续10年超50%，对经济增长贡献率高，成为经济结构优化的重要驱动力。 居民可支配收入的稳步提高，提振了居民的消费能 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the increasing attention on Hong Kong stocks since 2025, particularly focusing on investment opportunities in the consumer sector, driven by fundamental comparisons, valuations, capital flows, policies, and market trading characteristics [2] - The Hang Seng Consumer Index (HSCGSI.HI) was launched on August 17, 2015, selecting 50 high-growth leading companies in the Hong Kong consumer sector, emphasizing scarce assets amid the consumption upgrade wave [7][10] - The index is well-diversified across industries, with significant weights in food and beverage (15.02%), hotel and catering (13.24%), and apparel and home textiles (13.2%), effectively mitigating single-category volatility risks [10][15] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Consumer Index demonstrates superior profitability, with a median annualized ROE of 16.3% as of mid-2024, compared to 11.9% for the A-share consumer sector, indicating a stronger performance outlook [20][23] - The dividend yield of the Hang Seng Consumer Index has been on the rise, reaching approximately 3.24% in 2024, making it an attractive option for investors seeking stable returns in a low-interest-rate environment [28][30] - Current valuation levels of the Hang Seng Consumer Index are recovering from lows, with a PETTM of about 18 times, placing it at the 28th percentile since 2016, suggesting good value for allocation [31][36] Group 3 - There has been a significant inflow of southbound funds, with the allocation of active equity public funds to Hong Kong Stock Connect targets reaching a historical high of 14.5% by the end of Q4 2024, indicating strong interest in quality assets [42][46] - The Chinese government's focus on boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand is expected to benefit the consumer sector, with policies aimed at enhancing investment efficiency and overall demand [50][51] - The GF Hang Seng Consumer ETF, which closely tracks the Hang Seng Consumer Index, has seen substantial growth, expanding from 4.95 million shares at the end of 2024 to 15.6 million shares by March 26, 2025, marking a 216% increase [52][54]

大消费 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 3 月 17 日 [T分析师able_A：uthor 罗鹏 ] 执业证书号：S1030523040001 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：luopeng@csco.com.cn 研究助理：赵靖 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：zhaojing2@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 呼和浩特育儿补贴政策率先落地 [Table_ReportType] 大消费行业周报（3 月第 2 周） [Table_Summary] 行业观点： 风险提示：行业复苏及出生率不及预期、宏观经济增长放缓等风 险。 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] [Table_Report] [Table_BaseData] 图表目录 | Figure 1 | 申万一级行业周度涨跌幅 | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | Figure 2 | 消费二级子行业周度涨跌幅 | 3 | | Figure 3 | 消费各行业周度涨幅前五个股 | 4 | | Figure 4 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with the North Securities 50 index down by 3.07% and the Sci-Tech 50 index down by 2.11%, while over 3,800 stocks declined, leading to a slight decrease in trading volume to 1.65 trillion yuan [1] - The coal, medical beauty, and electricity sectors showed relative strength, while humanoid robots, broadcasting, storage chips, and wireless earphones faced significant declines [1] - ST stocks continued to perform strongly, with *ST Xintong achieving a new high since January 2018, recording 31涨停 in 35 trading days [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The coal industry saw a net inflow of over 3.3 billion yuan from major funds, while the banking and public utilities sectors each received over 2 billion yuan [1] - The power sector maintained strong performance, with the index rising for three consecutive days and trading volume exceeding 28.2 billion yuan, marking a new high for the year [2] - The artificial intelligence data center is expected to drive significant growth in electricity demand, with projections indicating that by 2026, global data center electricity consumption will reach between 620 billion and 1.05 trillion kilowatt-hours [2] Group 3: Company-Specific News - Qi Ming Medical, which had been suspended for over 15 months, saw its stock plummet by 66.37% upon resuming trading due to unauthorized fund transfers by former executives [3] - Qi Ming Medical acknowledged the challenges posed by the suspension and has undertaken a systematic restructuring of its organizational framework to enhance governance and internal controls [3] - The company has established a management committee to improve internal supervision and ensure timely market disclosures regarding significant matters [3]

以下文章来源于时代周报 ，作者黄宇昆 时代周报 . 记录大时代，深读全商业。互联网新闻信息服务许可证编号：44120230006 来源｜时代周报 记者丨黄宇昆 编辑丨兰烁 "2024年全市场分红达到2.4万亿元，分红金额创历史新高。市场的分红回购已远超IPO、再融资和减持的总规模。"近日，证监会主席吴清在十四届 全国人大三次会议经济主题记者会上表示。 自新"国九条"实施以来，A股上市公司的分红表现引人注目，其中银行是绝对的分红大户。Wind数据显示，2024年上市银行累计分红超6100亿元， 在所有板块中遥遥领先，当年中期分红也累计超2500亿元。 股息率方面，2024年沪深300股息率达到3.4%。细分行业板块来看，2024年，煤炭、银行、石油石化、纺织服饰、钢铁等多个板块的股息率都在3% 以上。另据时代周报记者统计，全部A股来看，截至3月10日，股息率超过3%的上市公司超过650家。 在业内人士看来，随着传统固收类资产收益率持续下行，权益类资产已成为投资者对抗通胀、实现保值增值的选择。从国际经验看，当人均GDP达到 一定水平后，居民资产配置从存款转向股权也是必然趋势。 苏商银行特约研究员薛洪言向时代周报记 ...

- ■■- 红利风格自2023年后持续跑赢 2023年起，中国经济的增长面临诸多不确定性，市场风格转保守，加之2024年新"国九条"等政策对分红的关 注，使得投资者开始更加看重股票的红利属性。 股息率定价的宏观背景：低通胀且货币大量投放 我们认为在央行推动物价回归合理稳定的政策基调下，低通胀是我们的基准情形。该情形下上述股息率定价 三大不确定性相对更可控，更有利于股息率定价。以2013-2019年间的日本为例，彼时日股股息率较长债利 率存在约1.5个百分点的溢价，当前沪深300超额股息率较长债利率溢价约1.3个百分点。若A股股息率进一步 下行，则需要长债利率的趋势性下降，或国内资金配置资产荒带来的资金面超调。从波动率角度来看，A股 的高波动率可能反而需要更高的股息率补偿。 股息率定价的上下行风险：通胀与通缩 在通胀环境下，经济成长性高，股价往往提前反映超出自由现金流的成长性；而在通缩环境下，企业自由现 金流受挫导致派息能力下降，我们认为这是为何股息率在通缩和高通胀的宏观环境下难以成为市场的估值锚 点的原因。因此若市场计价通胀，成长股风格将更受欢迎；若市场计价通缩，那么现金才是最好的资产选 择，即使一只股票现金 ...