有色金属周报 20250511 宏观风险降温，金属价格震荡 2025 年 05 月 11 日 ➢ 本周（05/06-05/09）上证综指上涨 1.92%，沪深 300 指数上涨 2%，SW 有色 指数上涨 1.57%，贵金属 COMEX 黄金下跌-1.57%，COMEX 白银下跌-1.95%。工业 金属 LME 铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡价格分别变动-0.78%、-0.52%、+0.40%、 +1.83%、-0.75%、-0.62%，工业金属库存 LME 铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡分别变动- 1.95%、-1.97%、-1.5%、-3.09%、-1.21%、+0.19%。 ➢ 工业金属：海外宏观方面多空交织，美国 4 月非农就业超预期和失业率稳定暂缓 衰退担忧，但一季度 GDP 年化收缩 0.3%叠加潜在关税又使经济停滞风险升高；国内 开启降准降息及公积金利率下调，宏观利好氛围不变，工业金属价格震荡。铜方面，供 应端，本周 SMM 进口铜精矿指数（周）报-43.11 美元/干吨，周度环比减少 0.5 美元/ 干吨。Antofagasta 与中国冶炼厂的年中长单谈判预计将于月底正式开启，鉴于当前恶 劣的现货市场环境和严 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant rebound last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.92% to close at 3342 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 2.29%, and the ChiNext Index up by 3.27% [1] Institutional Research Trends - The concentration of institutional research decreased, but enthusiasm remained high, with 452 listed companies disclosing investor research records as of May 9 [1] - Over 90% of the companies that were researched reported positive returns, with notable performers including Runbei Aerospace Technology, which achieved a 31.17% increase, and Jiuling Technology and *ST King Kong, both exceeding 20% growth [1] Popular Research Targets - Companies such as Xiangxin Technology, Xingye Silver Tin, Honghua Digital Technology, and Rongbai Technology received over 100 institutional research visits, while 14 companies, including Weikang Medical and Saiyi Information, were visited by more than 50 institutions [1] Xiangxin Technology - Xiangxin Technology received 173 institutional visits, with interest in its humanoid robot development strategy [1] - The company focuses on providing comprehensive technical solutions and has established a joint technology innovation center with the Guangdong Academy of Sciences to develop humanoid robot solutions [2] - In early 2025, Xiangxin registered a wholly-owned subsidiary, Xiangxin (Dongguan) Intelligent Robot Co., Ltd., to consolidate its humanoid robot business [2] Xingye Silver Tin - Xingye Silver Tin hosted 125 institutional visits, with inquiries about safety and project progress [3] - The company is advancing its projects, including the Silverman Phase II and the expansion of Yubang Mining, with production expected to commence in Q4 2027 for the Atlantic Tin project [3] Honghua Digital Technology - Honghua Digital Technology was a popular research target with 116 institutional visits, projecting a 42.30% year-on-year revenue growth in 2024 due to market expansion and technological innovation [4] - The company emphasizes continuous product updates based on customer needs and actively participates in industry exhibitions to promote new products [4] Rongbai Technology - Rongbai Technology received 106 institutional visits, with a focus on the impact of U.S. tariff policies on its products [4] - The company has shifted its U.S. exports to its Korean factory due to tariffs and is expanding its European customer base through partnerships and local supply [4] - Rongbai is enhancing its supply chain competitiveness by collaborating with upstream and downstream enterprises in Indonesia and Europe [4]

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 5.364 billion and a net profit of CNY 757 million, with a basic earnings per share of CNY 1.0498 [3] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of CNY 1.536 billion and a net profit of CNY 135 million, with a basic earnings per share of CNY 0.1868 [4] Rare Metals Business - The rare light metal (cesium and rubidium salt) segment generated a revenue of CNY 1.395 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24.16%, with a gross profit of CNY 1.092 billion, up 50.98% [5] - The cesium and rubidium fine chemical business contributed CNY 728 million in revenue, while the formic acid cesium business generated CNY 667 million [5] Copper Production Plans - The company aims to complete a copper production capacity of 60,000 tons per year by 2025, focusing on the Kitumba copper mine [6] - The Kachihishi copper mine has an estimated copper metal content of 60,000 tons and has been sold to a third party for further project funding [6] Geochemical Resources - The Tsumeb smelter in Namibia contains 746.21 tons of germanium with an average grade of 253.51 g/t, and a multi-metal recycling project is underway to enhance resource value [7] - The project aims to produce 33 tons of germanium ingots, 11 tons of industrial gallium, and 10,900 tons of zinc ingots annually [7] Future Growth Drivers - The company plans to develop a competitive landscape driven by new energy metals, bulk metals, and rare strategic metals, with a focus on lithium and copper [8] - The lithium salt sales reached 39,477 tons in 2024, a 164% increase year-on-year, supported by resource advantages and cost-reduction strategies [9]

Group 1 - Shanghai Ranqi Supply Chain Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 8 million RMB, fully owned by Shanghai Weihai Trading Co., Ltd. [1] - The legal representative of Shanghai Ranqi Supply Chain Co., Ltd. is Tang Jie [1] - The company operates in various sectors including supply chain management, sales of metal materials, chemical products, and coal processing [1] Group 2 - The company is classified under the mining industry, specifically in the non-ferrous metal mining sector [1] - The registered address of the company is located at 1000 Zhenchen Road, Baoshan District, Shanghai [1] - The business license allows the company to engage in activities such as construction project management and consulting services [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nepean Mining plans to acquire equity in Swiss company Veritas Resources AG, indirectly participating in the development of the Alacran copper-gold-silver mine in Colombia's San Matias project [1] Group 1: Investment Details - The company intends to invest a total of $45 million through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Nepean Global Resources Pte Ltd, in newly issued shares of Veritas Resources AG [1] - Additionally, there is a potential subscription of either $1.8 million or $6.3 million [1] - Upon completion of the subscription, the company will hold a 22.5% stake in Veritas Resources AG [1] Group 2: Project Ownership - Veritas Resources AG currently holds a 50% stake in CMH Colombia S.A.S. [1] - CMH Colombia S.A.S. owns relevant rights to the Alacran copper-gold-silver mine through its wholly-owned subsidiary [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 10.2 CNY per share [5]. Core Views - The company aims to become a world-class mining enterprise by acquiring gold mines and promoting organizational upgrades [10]. - The company reported a revenue of 213 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14%, and a net profit of 13.5 billion CNY, up 64% year-on-year [1]. - The company plans to enhance its copper and cobalt production capacity significantly over the next five years, targeting annual production of 800,000 to 1 million tons of copper and 90,000 to 100,000 tons of cobalt [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 46 billion CNY, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year and a 21% decrease quarter-on-quarter. The net profit for the same period was 3.95 billion CNY, up 90% year-on-year but down 25% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company expects revenues of 213.57 billion CNY, 218.09 billion CNY, and 223.87 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 15.02 billion CNY, 16.04 billion CNY, and 16.70 billion CNY [11][12]. Production and Sales - The company achieved significant increases in copper and cobalt production in 2024, with copper production reaching 650,200 tons (up 55% year-on-year) and cobalt production at 114,200 tons (up 106% year-on-year) [2]. - The company has set a production guidance for 2025 of 600,000 to 660,000 tons of copper and 100,000 to 120,000 tons of cobalt [2]. Price and Profitability - The average copper price in 2024 was 9,147 USD per ton, an increase of 8% year-on-year, while cobalt prices were 11.26 USD per pound, down 25% year-on-year [3]. - The gross profit for the copper segment in 2024 was 21.04 billion CNY, with a gross margin of 30.5% [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company announced plans to acquire Lumina Gold in Ecuador for approximately 581 million CAD, which is expected to become a new profit growth point [9]. - The company is also focusing on organizational upgrades by introducing a new management team to enhance operational efficiency and international competitiveness [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 10.2 CNY per share [5]. Core Views - The company aims to become a world-class mining enterprise by acquiring gold mines and promoting organizational upgrades [10]. - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with a 14% year-on-year increase in 2024 revenue to 213 billion CNY and a 64% increase in net profit to 13.5 billion CNY [1]. - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with significant increases in copper and cobalt production planned for 2024 and beyond [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 46 billion CNY, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 90% to 3.95 billion CNY [1]. - The company expects revenues of 213.57 billion CNY, 218.09 billion CNY, and 223.87 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 15.02 billion CNY, 16.04 billion CNY, and 16.70 billion CNY [11][12]. Production and Sales - The company achieved significant production targets in 2024, with copper and cobalt production increasing by 55% and 106% year-on-year, respectively [2]. - The production guidance for 2025 is set at 600,000 to 660,000 tons of copper and 100,000 to 120,000 tons of cobalt [2]. Pricing and Profitability - The average copper price in 2024 was 9,147 USD/ton, an 8% increase year-on-year, while cobalt prices saw a significant rebound in Q1 2025 [3]. - The gross profit for the copper segment in 2024 was 21.04 billion CNY, with a gross margin of 30.5% [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to acquire Lumina Gold in Ecuador for approximately 581 million CAD, which is expected to become a new profit growth point [9]. - A new management team has been introduced to enhance organizational efficiency and drive the company's strategic goals [10].

金诚信（603979）公告，公司拟收购CMH公司5%的股权并取得其控制权，交易对价为1000万美元及 440万美元或1540万美元或有对价。本次交易完成后，公司将通过控股子公司Veritas Resources AG持有 CMH公司55%股权，并主导Alacran铜金银矿后续开发建设。本次交易将构成关联交易，未构成重大资 产重组。交易已经公司第五届董事会第二十二次会议审议通过，无需提交公司股东大会审议。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of new energy and artificial intelligence creates significant opportunities for strategic resources such as copper and molybdenum [1] Financial Performance - The company reported an annual revenue exceeding 50 billion yuan, with a total profit of nearly 6 billion yuan and an operating cash flow of 8.246 billion yuan, setting multiple historical records [1] Industry Outlook - The global non-ferrous metals industry is expected to face new opportunities and challenges in 2025, driven by the wave of the new energy revolution and the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence [1]

Report 1: Zinc Futures Research Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc - Bearish outlook [1] 2. Core View - Tariff impact is temporarily receding, short - term supply is changing from tight to loose, and in the medium - to - long - term, there is an overall surplus, so it should be viewed bearishly [3] 3. Summary by Directory Macro & Industry News - Due to the trade war, Teck is considering other export options for its US concentrates. After China imposed a new round of retaliatory tariffs on US goods, Teck's lead - zinc concentrates from the Red Dog mine in Alaska became a "victim" of the Sino - US trade conflict. The company's business team is evaluating various solutions [1] Supply - Mining enterprise profits are affected by tariff policies, with single - ton profits shrinking from over 6,000 to around 4,000. However, TC prices have not declined, indicating no production cuts at the mine end. The supply side is generally becoming looser, and the possibility of production cuts for both pure smelting and integrated enterprises is extremely low [2] Demand - The peak demand season of "Golden March and Silver April" is coming to an end. Galvanizing shows low capacity utilization and production, and manufacturers' production enthusiasm is low. The demand for zinc ingots is expected to decline in the short term. In the die - casting alloy and zinc oxide markets, demand is weak [3] Conclusion - Tariff impact is temporarily receding, short - term supply is changing from tight to loose, and in the medium - to - long - term, there is an overall surplus, so it should be viewed bearishly [3] Operation Suggestion - Wait for an opportunity to short; if there is no rebound, the downside space is limited [4] Report 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel Futures Research Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Nickel - Short after a rebound; Stainless steel - Hold [5] 2. Core View - Although the Sino - US trade concerns remain, market sentiment has eased. Nickel prices have rebounded in the short term, but the fundamental trend of surplus remains unchanged. The support from the mine end is not sustainable [6] 3. Summary by Directory Macro & Industry News - In the first week of May 2025, the price of 1.6% grade nickel ore (CIF) increased by $1.1 per metric ton, while the price of 1.2% grade nickel ore (CIF) remained stable. Some processed product prices declined [5] Supply - Indonesia has increased mining royalties, and the price at the mine end is firm. The probability of the mine end becoming looser is high. The profit of ferronickel produced from medium - grade nickel ore is close to the break - even point, while the profit from low - grade nickel ore is still substantial. The total supply of domestic electrolytic nickel remains at a high level, and the cost of electrowinning nickel is expected to decline [5] Demand - In the process of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, the nickel cost is about 127,000 yuan, which is consistent with the technical pressure level. The demand support from downstream nickel sulfate cost is about 134,000 yuan/ton, and the profit critical point for external - purchasing manufacturers is about 137,000 yuan/ton. The possibility of stainless steel production cuts is small [6] Conclusion - Although the Sino - US trade concerns remain, market sentiment has eased. Nickel prices have rebounded in the short term, but the fundamental trend of surplus remains unchanged. The support from the mine end is not sustainable [6] Operation Suggestion - Short [7]