2026 年 02 月 27 日 行业动量分域视角： 再论行业转 莫型的因子化 申万金工因子观察第 4 期 20260226 相关研究 证券分析师 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 方思齐 A0230525090002 fangsq@swsresearch.com 联系人 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 股票基金 目录 | 1. 再论行业轮动模型的因子化 3 | | --- | | 1.1 拆解行业轮动模型在选股上的增量信息…………………………………………………………………………………………………3 | | 1.2 行业动量因子的表现 | | 2. 行业动量分或视角下的因子表现 | | 2.1 行业动量分域下低波因子：近年来差异明显 | | 2.2 行业动量分域下反转因子： 差异明显 | | 2.3 行业动量分域下动量因子：差异明显 | | 2.4 行业动量分域下低流动性因子：分化不大…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ...

国内盘面显示，昨日三大指数在前日上涨后冲高回落，分歧持续扩大，盘中多次出现跳水，且成交量放 大表明多空双方尚未形成合力。权重板块表现疲软，证券、保险、银行等金融股持续回落，在未完成企 稳筑底前，市场难以展开有效上攻。 操作策略上，维持震荡上行背景下的做多主基调，但需注意节奏把控。对于连续上涨2至3日且呈现滞涨 迹象的品种，建议适时高抛；低位横盘未经历明显上涨的品种可继续持有等待轮动，但需防范近期连续 收出三阳、四阳以上板块和品种的回调风险。市场尚未突破加速前，板块与个股难以走出独立大幅行 情，及时锁定利润、规避追高风险为当前重点。 国际局势方面，美伊谈判达成重要共识，谈判进展顺利推动原油、黄金、白银等避险资产价格回落。若 后期局势持续缓和，避险品种及原油将面临阶段性利空。科技领域呈现多空交织特征，一方面我国人工 智能大模型调用量首次超越美国，四款模型跻身全球前五，显示市场需求旺盛；另一方面英伟达及全球 软件巨头最新业绩未能提振市场情绪，外围科技板块反而出现跳水，短期需防范相关板块回踩风险，但 低位科技品种仍存在反弹机会。 隔夜美股回落叠加外围科技板块跳水，中概股跌幅接近2%，对今日A股市场形成一定外部压力。结 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic commodity futures market closed with mixed results, with base metals leading the gains. The A - share market is expected to continue its moderate upward trend after the opening, but the slope will be slower than in January. The RMB is expected to continue to strengthen in the second quarter. Most varieties in the market are expected to show an oscillatory trend in the short - term [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: On February 25, 2026, the CSI 300 futures price was 4731.4, with a daily increase of 0.9%, a weekly increase of 2.26%, a monthly increase of 0.43%, a quarterly increase of 2.86%, and an annual increase of 2.86%. The Shanghai - Shenzhen 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures also showed different degrees of increase [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures showed different degrees of decline on February 25, 2026, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures having the largest daily decline of 0.48% [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was 97.6594 on February 25, 2026, with a daily decline of 0.24%, a weekly decline of 0.09%, a monthly increase of 0.56%, and an annual decline of 0.62%. The US dollar intermediate price decreased by 202 pips daily [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield was 4.05 bp on February 25, 2026, with a daily increase of 1 bp, a weekly decline of 3 bp, a monthly decline of 21 bp, and an annual decline of 13 bp [2]. 3.2 Fluctuations of Popular Industries - On February 26, 2026, the defense and military industry had a daily increase of 1.62%, a weekly increase of 4.8%, a monthly increase of 6.07%, a quarterly increase of 10.92%, and an annual increase of 10.92%. The consumer services industry had a daily decline of 1.41%, a weekly decline of 5.6%, a monthly decline of 4.96%, a quarterly decline of 4.37%, and an annual decline of 4.37% [5]. 3.3 Fluctuations of Overseas Commodities - On February 25, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil was priced at 65.57, with a daily decline of 0.09%, a weekly decline of 1.12%, a monthly decline of 0.26%, a quarterly increase of 14.21%, and an annual increase of 14.21%. COMEX gold was priced at 5183.7, with a daily increase of 0.14%, a weekly increase of 1.05%, a monthly increase of 5.63%, a quarterly increase of 19.66%, and an annual increase of 19.66% [8]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Summary - **Domestic Macroeconomy**: During the Spring Festival, travel and consumption performed well, while real - estate sales were at a seasonal low. The social financing at the beginning of January was stable, with strong government - sector financing and private - sector financing in line with expectations [16]. - **Overseas Macroeconomy**: The US economy showed a slowdown in overall expansion and structural differentiation in multiple fields. In February 2026, the US economic sentiment and consumer confidence weakened, and the private - sector expansion slowed down [16]. - **Major Asset Classes**: The US - Iran geopolitical situation and Trump's tariff policy may support the prices of gold and silver in the short - term. The A - share market is expected to continue its moderate upward trend, while the black - metal sector and the domestic bond market may continue to oscillate. The RMB is expected to strengthen in the second quarter [16]. 3.5 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to be oscillating and bullish, stock index options are expected to oscillate, and treasury bond futures are expected to oscillate [17]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to be oscillating and bullish [17]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping route to Europe is expected to oscillate [17]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties in this sector, such as steel, iron ore, and coke, are expected to oscillate [17]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metals and new materials, such as copper, aluminum, and nickel, are expected to oscillate, with some showing an oscillating and bullish trend [17]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most energy and chemical products, such as crude oil, LPG, and asphalt, are expected to oscillate [20]. - **Agriculture**: Most agricultural products, such as natural rubber, cotton, and sugar, are expected to oscillate, with some showing an oscillating and bullish or bearish trend [20].

每日市场观察 2026 年 2 月 27 日 【今日关注】 沪深两指全天围绕零轴小幅震荡，最终上证指数以微跌收盘，深证成 指收涨 0.19%。两市个股涨跌数量相当。热点方面，前期热点贵金属板 块早盘一度延续活跃趋势，随后电网产业链相关板块先后拉升，领涨 至收盘。消费、保险领域延续弱势表现，房地产概念同样转弱。 电网产业链的上涨逻辑与 AI 相关预期有关，此方向市场早先已有关注。 根据资金聚焦路径，可知 AI 相关热点正从下游逐渐向上游扩展。因此， 长期来看，电网产业具备较高投资价值。 节后两个交易日后，AI 概念重回资金关注视野。回顾之前成长概念股 投资逻辑，可合理推测 AI 概念有望延续从核心逐渐扩展至周边的相似 路径。因此，后续 AI+相关概念值得深入挖掘和关注。但短期内受年报 及一季报披露期影响，预计大概率仍以板块轮动为主。 【市场回顾】 市场概况：2 月 26 日，市场探底回升，三大指数涨跌不一，创业板指 盘中一度跌超 1%，黄白线分化。截至收盘，沪指跌 0.01%，深成指涨 0.19%，创业板指跌 0.29%。 【资金面】 主力资金流向：2 月 26 日，上证净流入 141.84 亿元，深证净流入 ...

2月25日，方正证券发布公告称，股东中国信达资产管理股份有限公司（下称"中国信达"）2025年11月 26日至2026年2月25日期间的减持计划实施期限届满，最终未减持任何股份。 该减持计划可追溯至2025年11月4日。彼时，方正证券公告称，因经营需要，中国信达计划于上述期间 通过集中竞价方式减持不超过8232.1万股，占公司总股本的1%。 以公告当日（2025年11月4日）收盘价8.21元/股计算，顶格减持最高可套现约6.76亿元。然而，减持期 限届满后，中国信达最终未实施任何减持操作。 这并非中国信达首次"减持轮空"。自抵债入主方正证券后，中国信达先后发布过六次减持计划，连同本 次在内，已有三次未执行减持操作。 三次实际减持分别于2023年7月、2024年4月及8月发起。其中，2023年7月计划减持2%，实际减持1%， 持股比例从8.62%降至7.62%；2024年4月及8月均拟减持1%，实际分别减持0.15%和0.27%，持股比例逐 步降至7.2%。三次减持价格区间为8.65元/股至10.22元/股。 除本次外，三次"减持轮空"还包括2022年11月、2025年4月发起的计划，曾分别拟减持2%及1%，但 ...

｜2026年2月27日 星期五｜ 中信证券研报认为，展望未来3—5年，保险公司总体上将继续受益于严监管、反内卷的竞争环境，老七 家市场份额有望继续集中；在低利率环境下，储蓄存款向保险公司迁移，是银行、保险公司、客户共赢 的结果，这一趋势有望长期持续，并形成耐心资本、大力支持股市债市和实体经济发展。展望2026年一 季报和中报，在2025年低基数基础上，保单销售、投资收益、利润增长均具有较高确定性，近期AI叙 事调整带来右侧投资窗口，建议重点关注新业务价值增速快、盈利和派息稳定、估值较低的头部公司。 免责声明：本内容与数据仅供参考，不构成交易建议，使用前请核实。据此操作，风险自担。 NO.1中金公司：2026年国际货币秩序重构仍是全球资产主线 每日经济新闻 中金公司研报称，2026年国际货币秩序重构仍是全球资产的主线。2025年是国际货币秩序重构加速之 年，2026年该趋势仍将延续，这些趋势支持中国股票和黄金延续牛市，并有利于中国股票跑赢美股。 NO.2中信建投：国产白蛋白批签发占比提升，新产品研发持续推进 中信建投研报称，2025年，国内血制品行业中白蛋白、静丙、纤原批签发保持稳健，其中国产白蛋白签 发批次占 ...

华赢集团联合创始人兼行政总裁朱皓康博士表示："我们深知专业投资者对市场波动与资产安全的双重核心需求。作为香港首家推出受香港证监会批准虚拟 资产结构化产品的机构，我们深感使命在肩。本次产品不仅为专业投资者提供更稳健的投资策略，更为香港虚拟资产市场合规化、产品化、机构化开辟了新 路径。我们始终致力于为专业投资者提供更优质的投资选择，这是华赢集团传统金融专业能力与区块链技术深度融合的战略实践，彰显以合规为基石、以创 新驱动行业高质量发展的坚定决心。" 全球领先数字新金融平台华赢集团（纳斯达克代码：AXG）旗下华赢投资（AXG Investment Ltd），今日正式推出挂钩比特币（BTC）及以太坊（ETH）的 虚拟资产结构化投资产品 —— 创新期权组合策略系列。产品由 AXG Investment 发行，香港证监会持牌机构华赢证券（Solomon JFZ (Asia) Holdings Limited）负责向合格投资人提供销售与服务。 此次发行意义重大，华赢集团由此成为香港首家在证监会监管框架下正式发行虚拟资产结构化产品的券商机构。产品严格遵循香港《证券及期货条例》，仅 限专业投资者参与，实行持牌虚拟资产交易平台独 ...

晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2026 年 02 月 27 日 核心结论 分析师 【北交所】北交所日报——20260225：温和上涨，关注金三银四和两会政 策预期 zhouying@research.xbmail.com.cn 国内市场主要指数 | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 4,146.63 | -0.01 | | 深证成指 | 14,503.79 | 0.19 | | 沪深 300 | 4,726.87 | -0.19 | | 上证 180 | 10,389.00 | -0.16 | | 中小板指 | 8,841.13 | 0.61 | | 创业板指 | 3,344.98 | -0.29 | 资料来源：聚源 主要海外市场指数 | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯 | 49,499.20 | 0.03 | | 标普 500 | 6,908.86 | -0.54 | | 纳斯达克 | 22,878.38 | -1.18 | 资料来源：聚源 1 | 请务必仔细阅读报告尾部的投资评级说明和声明 ...

| 证券代码 | 证券名称 | 机构 | 最新评级 | 最高目标价 | 目标涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | (元) | (%) | | 688088 | 虹软科技 | 华泰证券 | 买入 | 71.27 | 47.71 | | 601390 | 中国中铁 | 中信证券 | 买人 | 8.30 | 34.96 | | 002019 | 亿帆医药 | 国投证券 | 买入 | 17.40 | 32.82 | | 000776 | 广发证券 | 中信证券 | 增持 | 26.00 | 24.94 | | 601567 | 三星医疗 | 国泰海通证券 | 增持 | 32.40 | 22.13 | | 003021 | 兆威机电 | 国泰海通证券 | 增持 | 147.00 | 21.74 | | 301365 | 矩阵股份 | 国信证券 | 优于大市 | 31.15 | 20.92 | | 600966 | 博汇纸业 | 群益证券(香港) | 买进 | 1 0.00 | 20.19 | | 002126 | 银轮股份 | 中国国际金融 | 跑赢行 ...

Core Insights - 2025 is a pivotal year for the deepening reform of China's capital market, laying a solid foundation for high-quality development through comprehensive investment and financing reforms [1] - The A-share market shows strong resilience and growth potential, with a robust upward trend and ample trading volume [1] Group 1: Reform Measures - A series of long and short-term policy measures were introduced in 2025 to consolidate the market's positive momentum and support the development of new productive forces [2] - The reform of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board was deepened, introducing a "1+6" reform initiative centered on establishing a growth layer, and expanding the listing standards to include cutting-edge fields such as artificial intelligence and commercial aerospace [2] - By the end of 2025, various types of medium and long-term funds held approximately 23 trillion yuan in A-share market circulation value, a significant increase of 36% compared to the beginning of the year [2] Group 2: Market Performance - The capital market maintained a steady upward trend throughout 2025, with major indices rising, and the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the 4,000-point mark, reaching a nearly ten-year high [3] - The total transaction amount in the A-share market exceeded 400 trillion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of over 60%, marking a historic high [3] - The total amount of IPOs and refinancing in the A-share market exceeded 1 trillion yuan in 2025 [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes enhancing the inclusiveness and adaptability of the capital market, guiding the direction for reforms over the next five years [4] - The capital market's ability to discover the value of innovative assets and allocate resources needs improvement, with future reforms focusing on providing comprehensive financial services that combine various financing tools [4] - The capital market is expected to continue enhancing its institutional inclusiveness and adaptability, aiming for balanced development to support high-quality growth [4] Group 4: Investment and Financing Reforms - Continuous optimization of listing and financing systems is anticipated, with reforms in the ChiNext Board and enhancements in refinancing convenience and flexibility [5] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission will deepen public fund reforms and broaden channels for medium and long-term capital, promoting a market ecosystem that encourages long-term, rational, and value-based investments [5] - The capital market is set to better fulfill its resource allocation function, providing higher quality and more efficient financial services for the real economy [5]