Market Overview - A-shares recovered above 3600 points, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3602.13, up 0.53% [2][3] - The trading volume exceeded 1 trillion yuan, reaching 10057 billion yuan, an increase of 849 billion yuan from the previous trading day [3] Military Industry - The military sector saw significant activity, with several stocks hitting the daily limit. Notable performers included Aerospace Intelligence, which reached a 20% limit up, and Changcheng Military Industry, which also hit the limit [7][8] - Changcheng Military Industry reported a cumulative increase of 181.58% since June 18, 2025, outperforming the industry and Shanghai Composite Index [10] - Global military spending continues to rise, providing strong support for the military market, with China's military manufacturing competitive advantage being underestimated [10] Gaming Sector - The gaming sector experienced a three-day consecutive rise, driven by AI technology and summer demand [12][13] - Notable stocks included Perfect World, which rose over 4%, and other companies like Kaineng Network and Giant Network also saw significant gains [15][16] PEEK Materials - The PEEK materials sector showed strong performance, with Huami New Materials rising over 20% and several other stocks hitting the daily limit [17][18] - The trend towards lightweight humanoid robots is driving demand for PEEK materials, indicating a growing market opportunity [20] Steel Industry - The steel sector continued to strengthen, with Maanshan Steel hitting the daily limit and other companies like Baotou Steel and Fangda Special Steel also showing gains [20][21] Pharmaceutical Sector - The innovative drug sector experienced a pullback after a previous surge, with several stocks like Anglikang nearing their daily limit down [22][23]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market continued its upward trend from the previous day, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 0.27%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 0.19% and 0.33% respectively, indicating a sustained recovery in market sentiment [1] Technology Sector - Major technology stocks showed mixed performance, with NetEase rising by 1.17%, while Tencent and Xiaomi experienced slight increases. Conversely, JD.com, Baidu, Meituan, and Alibaba saw declines [1] Paper and Steel Industries - Leading paper companies initiated a new round of price increases, significantly boosting paper stocks, with Chenming Paper rising by 7.4% to reach a new high. Steel stocks also saw notable gains, with Maanshan Iron & Steel surging by 9.6%, followed by Ansteel and Chongqing Iron & Steel [1] Biopharmaceutical Sector - The National Healthcare Security Administration has established a new pricing mechanism for newly listed drugs, potentially ushering in a new pricing cycle for Chinese innovative drugs. Biopharmaceutical stocks became active again, with innovative drug companies seeing substantial gains, including a more than 11% increase for Genscript Biotech, along with rises for Ascentage Pharma, Innovent Biologics, WuXi AppTec, and Hansoh Pharmaceutical [1] Gaming and Gambling Sector - Citigroup raised its forecast for Macau's August gaming revenue to 21.5 billion Macanese Patacas, leading to a broad increase in gaming stocks [1] Automotive Sector - The automotive sector faced some declines, with NIO falling nearly 7%, and both Li Auto and BYD also experiencing decreases [1] Other Sectors - Lithium battery stocks, medical aesthetics, education, and tobacco-related stocks mostly declined [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Macro Policy Shift**: The focus has shifted from short-term economic stimulus to sustained observation and timely adjustments, emphasizing efficiency in fund utilization and stable monetary policy [1][3][6] - **Domestic Demand Strategy**: Transition from "two new and two heavy" construction to high-quality promotion of "two public" construction, indicating a potential shift in subsidies from durable goods to service consumption [1][4][6] - **Capital Market Strategy**: The approach has changed from "activating financial markets" to "enhancing the attractiveness and inclusivity of capital markets," aiming to consolidate market recovery while avoiding rapid energy release [1][4][6] Key Industry Insights New Energy Sector - **Investment Strategy**: Prices for photovoltaic and lithium batteries have bottomed out, focusing on trading opportunities rather than strong growth prospects. Technologies like solid-state batteries and BC technology iterations are highlighted as areas of opportunity [1][8] Robotics Industry - **Growth Outlook**: The robotics industry is viewed optimistically, with strong growth potential and a focus on the application of Metal Injection Molding (MIM) technology. Companies like Zhiyuan and Yusheng are expected to benefit from this trend [2][9][11] Steel Industry - **Supply-Side Reform**: The government is focusing on regulating competition and promoting capacity governance in the steel industry, with measures to eliminate illegal production and enhance quality [2][17][18] Additional Important Insights - **Market Operation Model**: The market is no longer solely reliant on policy implementation but is driven by a loose funding environment and reduced policy uncertainty, indicating a slow bull market trend [1][7] - **Employment Policies**: Emphasis on employment priority policies to guide key groups into jobs and improve social welfare systems in response to tariff challenges [4][6] - **Consumer Sector**: The importance of domestic demand is highlighted, with strategies to enhance per capita GDP through industrial upgrades and social welfare transfers [13][14] - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies like Lepu Medical and Bubugao are recommended in the new consumption sector, while traditional consumer goods companies are also highlighted for their potential [14][15] Conclusion The conference call records provide a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape, highlighting shifts in macro policies, industry-specific growth opportunities, and strategic recommendations for investors. The focus on domestic demand, technological advancements in key sectors, and regulatory reforms in traditional industries like steel and robotics are critical for understanding future investment opportunities.

Report Title - Steel and Ore Monthly Report 2025 - 08: Industrial Expectations Disappointed, Black Rebound Halted [1] Report Authors - Xie Chen, Yang Hui from Zhengxin Futures Industrial Research Center's Black Industry Group [2] Report Main Views Steel - **Price**: Spot prices rebounded significantly, and the futures market was strong. In July, the螺纹10 contract rose 208 to 3205, and the hot - rolled coil futures price rose 267 to 3390. Shanghai's spot prices for rebar and hot - rolled coil increased by 220 and 170 respectively [8]. - **Supply**: Blast furnace production remained high, and electric furnace supply increased significantly. As of August 1, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, and the average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 57.05% at the end of July [11][18]. - **Demand**: Speculative demand for building materials increased significantly, while both domestic and foreign demand for plates decreased month - on - month. In July, the average monthly apparent demand for rebar decreased by 3.4% month - on - month, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 1% [24][27]. - **Profit**: Blast furnace profits continued to increase, and electric furnace production turned profitable. By August 1, the blast furnace profitability rate reached 65.4%, and the average profit of electric furnace rebar at off - peak electricity was 81 yuan/ton on July 30 [31]. - **Inventory**: The inventory accumulation rate of building materials was slower than expected, and plate inventories continued to accumulate. As of August 1, rebar social inventory increased by 200,000 tons month - on - month, and hot - rolled coil social inventory increased by 2% in July [35][38]. - **Basis**: The basis fluctuated, and the futures - spot spread accelerated its decline. The rebar 10 - contract basis widened by 4 from the end of June to August 1, and the hot - rolled coil basis inverted [41]. - **Summary**: In July, blast furnace operations were basically flat, molten iron production remained high, and electric furnace production increased significantly. Overall supply was abundant. Demand for plates was weak due to the seasonal off - peak for manufacturing. Considering the weakening support logic in the black industry, there is significant pressure for a correction in the futures market. Maintain a short - selling strategy in the short term [3]. Iron Ore - **Price**: Spot ore prices rose significantly, and the futures market rebounded strongly. In July, the futures price rose 63.5 to 779, and the Rizhao Port PB powder price rose 64 to 779 yuan/ton [52]. - **Supply**: Global shipments decreased month - on - month, and arrivals also declined. In July, the weekly average global shipment volume was 30.73 million tons, a decrease of 3.59 million tons from the previous month [55]. - **Demand**: Molten iron production remained high, and demand was expected to remain resilient. In July, blast furnace operations were basically flat, and molten iron production remained high. It is expected that the average daily molten iron production in August will be between 2.37 and 2.4 million tons [64]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories decreased slightly, and downstream enterprises replenished stocks passively. As of August 1, the 47 - port iron ore inventory decreased by 1.74 million tons month - on - month [70]. - **Shipping**: Shipping prices increased significantly [76]. - **Spread**: There was no trading space for the futures spread, but attention should be paid to the arbitrage opportunity of shorting the coke - ore ratio 01 contract [3]. - **Summary**: In July, supply tightened while demand remained high, and the fundamentals were strong. Later, affected by the weakening industrial logic, ore prices declined from their highs. Considering the short window period for short - selling and the more certain weakening of finished products, short - selling iron ore is not recommended for now. Instead, pay attention to the operation of shorting coke and going long on iron ore [3]. Strategies - For steel, continue to hold the short positions recommended in the weekly strategy and watch for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [3]. - For iron ore, pay attention to the operation of shorting coke and going long on iron ore and the arbitrage opportunity of shorting the coke - ore ratio 01 contract [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The steel price is expected to continue adjusting, and it is recommended to wait and see. [4] Group 3: Summary According to Related Content Policy Information - On August 1st, the list of "two major" construction projects worth 800 billion yuan for this year has been fully issued, and the central budget - internal investment of 735 billion yuan has been basically issued. [3] Production Capacity Utilization - Last week, the blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.24%, a decrease of 0.57 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 1.37 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4071 million tons, a decrease of 15,200 tons from the previous week and an increase of 40,900 tons year - on - year. [3] - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 57.05%, an increase of 1.56 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 15.11 percentage points year - on - year. The average operating rate was 74.21%, an increase of 2.18 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 12.75 percentage points year - on - year. [3] Market Performance and Influencing Factors - The price of finished steel rose first and then fell last week with large fluctuations. In terms of weekly fundamentals, the supply and demand of rebar both decreased and inventory increased, while the supply, demand, and inventory of hot - rolled steel all increased. The fundamentals are slightly bearish, but market sentiment has a greater impact on the market. [3] - The Politburo meeting last week was relatively calm, with no unexpected statements on anti - involution and real estate, which put pressure on the previously excited market. Recent market trends are greatly affected by macro factors and sentiment, with large price fluctuations. [3] Later Concerns - Macro policies, supply - side production reduction, and downstream demand conditions should be focused on. [4]

Group 1 - The profitability of steel mills continues to improve, indicating a positive trend in the industry [1] - There is no expectation of a reduction in blast furnace production, which may impact supply dynamics [1] - Iron ore prices are still considered undervalued, suggesting potential investment opportunities [1]

1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bond market has stopped falling, and credit has followed the decline in interest rates. Short - duration and low - grade varieties have shown strong performance. Credit spreads have mostly increased, with some short - duration and low - grade varieties declining [2][5]. - Urban investment bond spreads have generally remained stable, with differentiation among different regions [2][9]. - Industrial bond spreads have slightly declined, and the spreads of mixed - ownership real estate bonds have also decreased [2][17]. - The yields of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds have all declined, and the spreads have generally compressed by 2 - 4BP, outperforming ordinary credit bonds [2][24]. - The excess spreads of perpetual bonds have generally increased, with a relatively large increase in the spreads of 3Y industrial perpetual bonds [2][27]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market Stabilization and Credit Spread Changes - Interest - rate bond yields first rose and then fell, with the yields of 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y China Development Bank bonds declining by 3BP, 4BP, 3BP, 3BP, and 5BP respectively. Credit bond yields generally followed the decline in interest rates but underperformed interest - rate bonds. The yield changes of 7Y varieties with a small previous adjustment were limited [2][5]. - Credit spreads mostly increased, with some short - duration and low - grade varieties declining. Rating spreads and term spreads showed significant differentiation [5]. 3.2 Urban Investment Bond Spreads - Overall, urban investment bond spreads remained stable, with differentiation among different regions. The credit spreads of external - rated AAA and AA platforms remained flat, while those of AA + platforms increased by 1BP [2][9]. - By administrative level, the credit spreads of provincial, municipal, and county - level platforms generally remained flat [16]. 3.3 Industrial Bond Spreads - Industrial bond spreads slightly declined, and the spreads of mixed - ownership real estate bonds also decreased. The spreads of central and local state - owned enterprise real estate bonds remained flat, those of mixed - ownership real estate bonds declined by 4BP, and those of private - enterprise real estate bonds increased by 8BP [2][17]. - The spreads of coal bonds of each grade declined by 1BP; the spreads of AAA - rated steel bonds remained flat, while those of AA + - rated steel bonds declined by 3BP; the spreads of AAA - rated chemical bonds remained flat, while those of AA + - rated chemical bonds declined by 1BP [17]. 3.4 Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds - The yields of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds all declined, and the spreads generally compressed by 2 - 4BP, outperforming ordinary credit bonds, with high - grade varieties performing slightly better [2][24]. 3.5 Perpetual Bond Excess Spreads - The excess spreads of perpetual bonds generally increased, with a relatively large increase in the spreads of 3Y industrial perpetual bonds. The excess spreads of 3Y industrial AAA perpetual bonds increased by 3.34BP to 7.16BP, and those of 5Y industrial AAA perpetual bonds remained flat at 7.65BP [2][27]. 3.6 Credit Spread Database Compilation - The overall market credit spreads, commercial bank Tier 2 and perpetual bond spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term note and ChinaBond perpetual bond data. The historical quantiles are since the beginning of 2015 [31]. - The credit spreads of urban investment and industrial bonds are compiled and statistically analyzed by the R & D center of Cinda Securities, and the historical quantiles are also since the beginning of 2015 [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost - side support for hot - rolled coils has weakened, causing the futures prices to fall from high levels. The HC2510 contract may enter a range - bound consolidation, and short - term trading is recommended with attention to operation rhythm and risk control [2][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights 3.1.1 Market Review - As of August 1st, the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3401 yuan/ton, down 106 yuan/ton; the spot price of Hangzhou Lianggang hot - rolled coil was 3480 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton - Hot - rolled coil production increased from a decline, reaching 322.79 million tons, up 5.3 million tons - Apparent demand rebounded to 3.2 million tons, up 476,000 tons from the previous period and down 130,000 tons year - on - year - Both factory and social inventories increased, with the total inventory rising to 3.4795 million tons, up 27,900 tons and down 843,600 tons year - on - year - The steel mill profitability rate was 65.37%, up 1.73 percentage points from last week and 58.88 percentage points from last year [7] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macro aspect: Overseas, the US June PCE data accelerated, dampening the Fed's September rate - cut expectations; the US - Mexico tariff agreement was extended for 90 days. Domestically, there were new progress in China - US economic and trade talks, and the Politburo meeting required governance of disorderly competition and capacity management in key industries - Supply - demand aspect: Weekly hot - rolled coil production increased from a decline, with a capacity utilization rate of 82.46% remaining at a relatively high level; total inventory continued to increase slightly, and apparent demand was adjusted up to 3.2 million tons - Cost aspect: Coking coal prices dropped from continuous limit - up to limit - down, hitting market sentiment, and iron ore prices also declined, weakening cost - side support - Technical aspect: The HC2510 contract rose and then fell, with the daily K - line showing three consecutive negative lines and being under pressure below the 5 - day moving average; the MACD indicator showed a high - level death cross of DIFF and DEA, and the red column shrank - Strategy suggestion: The anti - involution positive expectations in the macro - aspect are fading; in the industrial aspect, hot - rolled coil production remains at a relatively high level, terminal demand is resilient, apparent demand rebounds, but furnace material prices are adjusting downward, weakening cost - side support. The HC2510 contract may enter a range - bound consolidation, and short - term trading is recommended with attention to operation rhythm and risk control [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price Adjustment - This week, the HC2510 contract adjusted downward. It outperformed the HC2601 contract, with the spread on the 1st being - 2 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton week - on - week [15] 3.2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions - On August 1st, the hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts at the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 57,174 tons, down 1,188 tons week - on - week - On August 1st, the net short position of the top 20 in the hot - rolled coil futures contract was 108,966 lots, an increase of 45,704 lots from last week [21] 3.2.3 Spot Price Adjustment - On August 1st, the spot price of 5.75mm Q235 hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3480 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; the national average price was 3482 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton week - on - week - This week, the hot - rolled coil spot price was stronger than the futures price, with the basis on the 1st being 79 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton week - on - week [25] 3.3 Upstream Market 3.3.1 Furnace Material Price Changes - On August 1st, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 821 yuan/dry ton, down 11 yuan/dry ton week - on - week - On August 1st, the spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1520 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week [32] 3.3.2 Iron Ore Arrival and Inventory - From July 21st - 27th, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 32.009 million tons, up 918,000 tons; the Australia - Brazil iron ore shipment volume was 27.559 million tons, up 2.039 million tons - From July 21st - 27th, 2025, the arrival volume at China's 47 ports was 23.197 million tons, down 1.921 million tons; at 45 ports, it was 22.405 million tons, down 1.307 million tons; at the six northern ports, it was 11.573 million tons, down 2.319 million tons - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 142.2201 million tons, down 1.7367 million tons; the average daily clearance volume was 3.1791 million tons, down 114,200 tons. In terms of components, Australian ore inventory was 61.0885 million tons, down 2.004 million tons; Brazilian ore inventory was 51.9207 million tons, up 524,700 tons; trade ore inventory was 90.4245 million tons, down 1.4112 million tons - On July 31st, the billet inventory in Tangshan, Hebei was 1.1102 million tons, up 41,000 tons week - on - week and 141,100 tons year - on - year [37][41] 3.3.3 Coking Industry Changes - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 73.48%, down 0.13%; the daily coke output was 518,300 tons, down 90 tons; coke inventory was 465,200 tons, down 36,000 tons; the total coking coal inventory was 8.4406 million tons, up 28,500 tons; the available coking coal days were 12.3 days, up 0.07 days [45] 3.4 Industry Situation 3.4.1 Supply - Side Changes - In June 2025, China's crude steel production was 83.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%; from January to June, it was 514.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0% - In June 2025, China's steel exports were 9.678 million tons, down 900,000 tons from the previous month and 8.5% month - on - month; from January to June, cumulative steel exports were 58.147 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. In June, steel imports were 470,000 tons, down 11,000 tons from the previous month and 2.3% month - on - month; from January to June, cumulative steel imports were 3.023 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.4% - On August 1st, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, unchanged from last week and up 2.18 percentage points year - on - year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.24%, down 0.57 percentage points from last week and up 1.37 percentage points year - on - year; the daily hot - metal output was 2.4071 million tons, down 15,200 tons from last week and up 40,900 tons year - on - year - On July 31st, the weekly hot - rolled coil production of 37 enterprises was 322.79 million tons, up 530,000 tons from last week and down 66,000 tons year - on - year - On July 31st, the hot - rolled coil inventory in 37 enterprises was 793,000 tons, up 1,300 tons from last week and down 125,100 tons year - on - year; the social inventory in 33 cities was 2.6865 million tons, up 14,900 tons from last week and down 718,500 tons year - on - year; the total hot - rolled coil inventory was 3.4795 million tons, up 27,900 tons from last week and down 843,600 tons year - on - year [48][51][56] 3.4.2 Demand - Side Changes - In June 2025, automobile production and sales were 2.794 million and 2.904 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 11.4% and 13.8%. From January to June, automobile production and sales were 15.621 million and 15.653 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.5% and 11.4% - From January to June 2025, cumulative production of household air - conditioners was 163.2961 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%; for household refrigerators, it was 50.6416 million units, unchanged year - on - year; for household washing machines, it was 58.6036 million units, a year - on - year increase of 10.3% [59]

Group 1 - Nanjing's industrial added value increased by 6.2% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with a 7.6% increase in June [1] - Out of 37 major industrial sectors, 30 sectors experienced year-on-year growth, resulting in a growth coverage of 81.1% [1] - The manufacturing sector's added value grew by 6.8%, with notable increases in automotive manufacturing (16.1%), black metal smelting and rolling (11.2%), and electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing (10.3%) [1] Group 2 - The brain-computer interface industry cultivation conference was held in Nanjing, leading to significant project signings and innovations [2] - Nanjing has established an industrial attack mechanism focusing on key industries, including artificial intelligence, robotics, biomedicine, and new-generation information communication [2] - Nanjing's core robotics industry achieved revenue of 19.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of approximately 20% [3] Group 3 - The software and information services industry in Nanjing generated revenue of 520 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 16.5% [3] - The artificial intelligence core industry reported revenue of 26 billion yuan, growing at a rate of 26% [3] - The biomedicine industry achieved revenue of 118.5 billion yuan, with an increase of 11.5% [3]

● 2022 ↓ 2023 ↓ 2024 ↓ 2025 3,600 3,300 3,000 2,700 2,400 2,100 1,800 品周H 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月 短流程日耗 ◆ 2022 ↓ 2023 ↓ 2024 ● 2025 唱启剧H lle 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月 张家港废钢到货 废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/08/01 华东 स्क 中部 东北 日期 华南 2025/07/25 2230 2071 2269 2269 2318 原点 2238 2025/07/28 2312 2074 2252 2276 2244 2025/07/29 2232 2310 2065 2278 2025/07/30 2236 2312 2068 2253 2283 2025/07/31= 12 2233 ~2310 原占 2069 2235 原品 2281 环比 -3 -2 -18 -2 1 沙钢重三价格 (含税) ◆ 2022 ↓ 2023 ↓ 2024 ● 2025 4 ...