Market Share & Production Shift - India became the largest smartphone supplier to the US in Q2, accounting for 44% of the market share [1] - Vietnam ranked second with 30% market share [1] - China ranked third in smartphone supply to the US [1] Factors Driving the Shift - Apple significantly increased its production capacity in India [1] - Smartphone manufacturers stockpiled due to tariff concerns [1] Production Efficiency - Indian factories have approximately 10% lower yield rates compared to mainland China and Vietnam due to factors like worker efficiency, technology maturity, and supply chain completeness [1] - The overall situation in India is still within Apple's control [1]

Group 1 - India has overtaken China as the largest source of smartphone sales to the US, accounting for 44% of the market as of June [1] - The share of smartphones assembled in China has significantly decreased from 61% in Q2 2024 to 25% in Q2 2025 [1] - Apple has increased its production efforts in India, contributing to a 240% year-on-year growth in devices manufactured in India [4] Group 2 - Apple's iPhone shipments to the US have declined by 11%, indicating a distortion in its usual supply chain patterns due to excessive inventory accumulation earlier this year [4] - Despite suppliers increasing inventory, market growth was only 1%, suggesting weak demand amid challenging economic conditions [4] - Apple and other manufacturers are shifting production from China to India and Vietnam to mitigate risks associated with tariffs and geopolitical tensions [4]

Core Insights - Apple is focusing on enhancing the long-focus capabilities of its iPhone series, particularly with the upcoming iPhone 17 Pro potentially featuring an 8x continuous optical zoom lens [1][3] - The iPhone 17 Pro may also introduce a first-party professional camera app in iOS 26, along with a new physical button for camera control [1][4] - The imaging system remains a key differentiator between Apple's flagship and non-flagship models, with significant upgrades expected in the camera specifications [3] Group 1: Camera Features - The iPhone 17 Pro is expected to have all three cameras upgraded to 48MP sensors, emphasizing Apple's commitment to superior imaging capabilities [3] - The introduction of a long-focus lens in the Pixel 10 series highlights a competitive shift in the market, as Apple will be the only major brand not offering a long-focus lens in its standard model priced at $799 [8][10] - The absence of a long-focus lens in the standard iPhone 17 raises questions about its classification as a high-end smartphone, especially in comparison to competitors that include long-focus options in their standard models [10][12] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The smartphone market has been characterized by a "two superpowers and one strong" structure, with Apple, Samsung, and Google dominating the mid-to-high-end segments [6][8] - The competitive landscape is shifting as domestic brands in China have already integrated long-focus lenses into their standard models, putting pressure on Apple to adapt [12][15] - The long-focus lens is becoming a critical feature for differentiation in a market where product homogeneity is prevalent, making it essential for flagship models [17]

Core Viewpoint - Apple is facing significant challenges in the Chinese smartphone market, which is critical for its revenue, and needs to find solutions to either regain market share or develop new revenue streams [1][4][18] Market Performance - Apple's market capitalization stands at $3.2 trillion, but the stock has declined by 14% in 2025, underperforming compared to the broader market [2] - The stock has shown a slight recovery with a 6% increase in the last month, but concerns remain about its declining market share in China [4] Market Share in China - Apple's market share in China has decreased from 21% in Q4 2023 to 15% in Q1 2025, while competitors Huawei and Xiaomi hold 19% each [7] - Sales in Greater China dropped by 2% year-over-year in Q2 2025, contrasting with growth in other regions [8] Revenue Breakdown - Total sales for Apple in Q2 2025 were $95.3 billion, a 5% increase from $90.7 billion in Q2 2024 [8] - The Services segment generated $26.64 billion in Q2 2025, up 11.6% from $23.86 billion in Q2 2024, highlighting its importance as a revenue source [12] Product Performance - iPhone sales reached $48.84 billion in Q2 2025, a 6.2% increase from the previous year, but the overall growth has stagnated since 2023 [13][9] - The lack of significant technological advancements in recent iPhone models has led to consumers holding onto their devices longer, impacting sales [14][15] Trade and Production Challenges - Apple is affected by the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, with potential tariffs threatening profit margins [16][17] - The company is in the process of relocating some production to Vietnam and India, but this transition is lengthy and does not fully mitigate tariff risks [16] Future Outlook - Investors should monitor the upcoming fiscal third-quarter earnings report on July 31, particularly focusing on sales trends in Greater China and their impact on overall revenue [18]

Group 1 - The average battery capacity of smartphones in China is projected to reach 5418mAh by May 2025, representing an 11% year-on-year increase, significantly higher than the global average increase of 3% [1][5] - The introduction of silicon-carbon (SiC) batteries has contributed to the widening gap in battery capacity, with Chinese smartphones leading by over 500mAh compared to other markets [1][5] - The adoption of SiC batteries is expected to accelerate with the launch of popular models such as Honor X60 Pro, REDMI K80, and vivo S19 in the second half of 2024, addressing consumer pain points related to increased screen usage and higher power applications [5] Group 2 - The market share of smartphones with battery capacities of 6000mAh and above in China has surged to 35% by May 2025, up from just 9% a year earlier, indicating a significant shift in consumer preferences [5]

Core Insights - In Q2 2025, China's smartphone shipments declined by 2.4% year-on-year, attributed to seasonal factors and demand front-loading due to subsidies [1] - Huawei maintained its leading position for the second consecutive quarter, increasing its market share from 15% to 18.1% year-on-year, driven by strong sales of the mid-range nova 14 series and significant price reductions on high-end models [1] - Vivo ranked second in shipments, supported by its strong offline channel network and the successful performance of its Y series in lower-tier cities, along with a surge in demand for the newly launched S30 series during back-to-school promotions [4] - OPPO successfully launched the Reno 14 series before the 618 shopping festival, continuing the strong sales momentum of the Reno 13 series, while its sub-brand OnePlus achieved notable growth by focusing on the gaming experience [4] - Xiaomi recorded the second-fastest growth rate in Q2 2025 with a market share of 15.7%, maintaining growth through price reductions on popular models like Redmi K80 and Xiaomi 15, despite not launching new mid-range products during promotions [5] - Apple performed strongly during the 618 shopping festival due to unprecedented price cuts on the iPhone 16 series, particularly the Pro models, although this may pressure sales of the iPhone 17 base model in the second half of the year [5] - Honor is responding to intense market competition by expanding its product lineup, with the mid-range HONOR 400 series launched at the end of May showing promising initial results [5] Industry Outlook - The demand for smartphones in China remains weak, aligning with previous expectations from Counterpoint, although promotions and subsidies have provided some support for stable sales [6] - Counterpoint anticipates a year-on-year growth in the Chinese market for 2025, albeit at a slower pace, with summer promotions and the early release of flagship products in Q3 expected to boost sales and lay a solid foundation for Q4 performance [6] - The industry will continue to monitor the evolving global market landscape, particularly regarding tariff policies, rising component costs, and changes in consumer demand [6]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of battery life as a key consideration for consumers purchasing smartphones in the budget segment (under ₹20,000 or approximately $230) in India, despite the overall priority still being on SoC processors [2][3]. Group 1: Consumer Preferences - A recent survey by Counterpoint Research indicates that battery life is the most critical factor for 15% of consumers planning to buy smartphones under ₹20,000 [2][6]. - The top three factors influencing smartphone purchase decisions are processor performance, battery life, and storage capacity [2][3]. - The average battery capacity of smartphones in India has reached 5212 mAh, reflecting the growing consumer reliance on smartphones for various daily tasks [3][8]. Group 2: Market Trends - The increasing dependence on smartphones for social media, digital payments, photography, and other tasks has raised consumer expectations for performance, battery life, and usability [8]. - Consumers are becoming aware that larger battery capacities often lead to heavier devices, prompting a preference for lightweight designs that do not compromise on battery life [8]. - In the budget smartphone market, battery life has transitioned from being a supplementary feature to a decisive factor in purchase decisions [8]. Group 3: Company Overview - Counterpoint Research is a global market research firm focused on the technology ecosystem, providing insights and data across various sectors including smartphones, semiconductors, and consumer electronics [9]. - The company serves a diverse clientele, from smartphone OEMs to chip manufacturers and large tech firms, with a team of experienced analysts offering comprehensive market data and strategic consulting [9].

Core Insights - Huawei has launched the Pura80 digital version, which will officially go on sale on July 30, with a starting price of 4699 yuan, representing an 800 yuan decrease compared to the previous generation [1][3] - The smartphone market is facing increased competition, particularly in the 4000 yuan price range, with several brands including Apple and Xiaomi also adopting price reduction strategies [3][4] - The overall smartphone market in China has seen a decline in shipments, with a 4.0% year-on-year drop in Q2 2025, marking the end of six consecutive quarters of growth [3][4] Huawei's Market Position - Huawei regained the top position in China's smartphone shipments for the first time in four years, despite a 3.4% year-on-year decline in total shipments [3][4] - In Q2 2025, Huawei's market share was 18.1%, with shipments of 12.5 million units, while competitors like Vivo and OPPO experienced larger declines [4][5] - Huawei's high-end smartphone market remains strong, with a 69% year-on-year increase in shipments for devices priced above 600 USD, capturing 38% of that market segment [6] Market Dynamics - The smartphone market is under pressure due to low consumer confidence and extended replacement cycles, leading to a challenging environment for all brands [5][6] - Analysts predict that without significant new demand, Huawei's growth may slow down, potentially leading to single-digit growth or slight declines in the Chinese market [5] - The success of Huawei's HarmonyOS ecosystem is crucial for its long-term competitiveness against Apple, although it currently faces challenges with software bugs and incomplete functionalities [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated release of Apple's first foldable iPhone, highlighting its potential features and market positioning, while questioning the necessity and functionality of foldable smartphones in general [4][5][24]. Group 1: Product Development and Features - Apple is expected to launch its foldable iPhone by the end of 2024, with a price starting at $2000, aligning with previous leaks from analysts [4][24]. - The foldable iPhone will feature a book-style design, expanding from a 5.5-inch screen to a 7.8-inch screen when opened, which is close to the size of an iPad mini [6][15]. - The device's thickness will range from 9mm to 9.5mm when folded and 4.5mm to 4.8mm when opened, which is comparable to other recent foldable models [7]. - The foldable iPhone will utilize components from competitors, including a foldable OLED screen from Samsung, indicating a reliance on existing technology rather than pioneering new innovations [9]. - Apple is reportedly working on a "no crease" display technology, with two internal prototypes under development [9][10]. Group 2: Market Context and Challenges - The foldable smartphone market is currently small, with only 700 million units shipped in China in 2023, representing just 2% of the total smartphone market [24]. - There is skepticism about the practical applications of foldable smartphones, as the market has yet to see a product that significantly alters consumer perceptions [25][26]. - The article raises concerns about whether the foldable iPhone can justify its high price point and meet consumer expectations, especially given the existing competition and market dynamics [29][30]. Group 3: AI Integration and Future Prospects - The foldable iPhone is being positioned as a "true AI phone," capable of multi-modal and cross-app functionalities, which could redefine user interaction through AI agents [20][21]. - The potential for AI integration suggests that the foldable iPhone could serve as a versatile device, merging the capabilities of a smartphone, tablet, and PC [25]. - The timeline for the foldable iPhone's release indicates that while initial specifications may be finalized in 2024, mass production may not occur until late 2026, highlighting the challenges in bringing this product to market [24][22].

Core Viewpoint - Google is set to launch the Pixel 10 series on August 20, featuring design continuity but significant internal upgrades, particularly in processing power and camera capabilities [5][4]. Group 1: Design and Processor - The design of the Pixel 10 series remains largely unchanged from its predecessor, maintaining a capsule-shaped camera deco for a cleaner look [4]. - The Pixel 10 series will utilize the new Tensor G5 processor, manufactured using TSMC's 3nm process, featuring an upgraded IMG DXT GPU instead of the previous Arm Mali series [7]. - The Tensor G5 will continue to use Arm Cortex cores for CPU tasks and will retain custom IP cores for audio processing and memory compression [8][9]. Group 2: Camera Features - The Pixel 10 standard version will now include a telephoto lens, making it the first in the series to feature a triple-camera setup, which is a departure from the typical configurations seen in flagship models [15]. - However, this addition comes at a cost, as the main camera sensor has been downgraded from a 1/1.31-inch Samsung GNV to a 1/1.95-inch GN8, and the ultra-wide sensor has also been reduced in size [16]. - The Pro and Pro XL models will not see any upgrades in camera hardware compared to their predecessors, relying on the new fully self-developed ISP for image processing [20][22]. Group 3: Software and User Experience - The Pixel 10 series will launch with Android 16, which features a redesigned user interface and enhanced interaction animations, aiming to improve user engagement [26][27]. - Android 16 introduces real-time update notifications for applications, enhancing user convenience by displaying progress directly on the lock screen [29]. - The system has also been optimized for multitasking and includes new APIs to help developers manage device resources more effectively [33]. Group 4: Market Position and Competition - The Pixel series has seen a significant increase in market share, rising from 4.76% to 12.9% in the U.S. following the Pixel 9 launch, surpassing brands like Motorola and OnePlus [43]. - In Canada, Pixel's market share has also increased to approximately 8%, indicating a growing presence in the North American market [44]. - Samsung's market share in the U.S. has declined from 23% to 18%, attributed to the competitive pressure from the Pixel series and the traditional strength of Apple's new product launches [45][46].