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中金 • 全球研究 | 泰国:下半年或需加强逆周期调节
中金点睛· 2025-09-02 23:37
Macroeconomic Overview - Thailand's real GDP grew by 2.8% year-on-year in Q2 2025, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 2.4% and up from 2.3% in Q2 2024, although it slowed from 3.2% in Q1 2025 [2][8] - The National Economic and Social Development Council adjusted the full-year growth forecast to 1.8-2.3%, up from the previous range of 1.3-2.3%, maintaining cautious optimism amid global uncertainties [2][8] - Key growth drivers include strong export performance, with Q2 exports up 12.2% year-on-year, and a rebound in private investment, which grew by 4.1% [8][10] Policy Response - Thailand faces multiple pressures including political friction, border conflicts, trade risks, and natural disasters, which pose challenges to growth [3][21] - The Constitutional Court's ruling on former Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha's actions may delay key initiatives like the digital wallet plan [21][22] - Strong foreign direct investment (FDI) activity, with a record 1,063 approved projects worth $18.7 billion in H1 2025, signals positive investment sentiment [22][23] Trade Dynamics - Thailand's exports grew by 14.8% year-on-year in Q2 2025, continuing a five-quarter growth streak, driven by strong demand for electronics [4][30] - The U.S. imposed a 19% tariff on Thai goods, which may pressure export-oriented businesses in the second half of 2025 [4][30] - Thailand is actively seeking to diversify its trade relationships, achieving key milestones such as gaining BRICS partner status and enhancing ties with the European Free Trade Association [4][31][32] Tourism Sector - The tourism sector showed signs of weakness, with foreign visitor numbers down 12.2% year-on-year in Q2 2025, primarily due to safety concerns and regional competition [5][38] - The Thai government announced a stimulus package of 10 billion baht (approximately $300 million) to promote tourism and improve attractions [5][39] - Long-haul tourists are expected to increase, potentially driving tourism revenue to $46.4 billion in 2025, up from $39.7 billion in 2024 [5][39] Capital Markets - The SET index rose by 3% in the past month, reflecting improved market sentiment, although it remains down 6.9% year-to-date [6][49] - The forward P/E ratios for 2025 and 2026 are projected at 14.0x and 13.1x, respectively, indicating a valuation below historical averages [6][49] - Investment strategies should focus on high-dividend financial stocks, electronic and electric vehicle manufacturing, fintech innovation, and energy transition [6][50]
16位院士和多位图灵奖得主将出席2025 Inclusion·外滩大会
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-09-02 15:56
Group 1 - The "2025 Inclusion·Bund Conference" will commence on September 10, featuring 16 academicians and multiple Turing Award winners [1] - The conference is organized by the Bund Conference Organizing Committee, with support from the Shanghai Municipal Financial Supervision Administration and the Huangpu District Government [2] - Notable attendees include Turing Award winners Richard Sutton and Jack Dongarra, as well as Yuval Noah Harari, and several Chinese academicians [2] Group 2 - The conference will collaborate with Global Finance & Technology Network (GFTN) and InvestHK to host a "Global Theme Day" focused on fintech [3] - A series of in-depth forums will be held, featuring representatives from top global financial institutions and tech companies discussing regional practices, technological innovation, and international development [3] - The event will introduce a "Robot Town" showcasing over 100 embodied intelligent robots from more than 40 renowned domestic and international companies [3]
金融科技公司Klarna重启美国IPO 拟筹资12.7亿美元
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-09-02 14:43
格隆汇9月2日|瑞典金融科技公司Klarna重启美国IPO,计划以35美元至37美元之间的价格发行3430万 股股票,筹集高达12.7亿美元的资金,估值将高达140亿美元。公司多年来一直考虑在纽约上市,但由 于美国总统特朗普宣布对主要贸易伙伴征收全面关税,全球市场动荡,公司于4月暂停上市计划。 ...
三大顶级金融科技盛会首次齐聚外滩,上海加速打造全球金融科技中心
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2025-09-02 13:32
外滩大会组委会在9月2日召开的媒体沟通会上宣布,2025 Inclusion·外滩大会将设立首个全球主题日。届时,新加坡金融科技节、香港金融科技周主办 机构将与上海外滩大会同台,共启一场亚洲金融科技三地对话。这也是三大全球顶级金融科技盛会的首次聚首,上海吸引全球瞩目。 论坛将汇聚来自全球顶尖金融机构、科技巨头及产业机构的思想领袖和业界代表,呈现来自中国内地、香港、东南亚、欧洲及中东等各地市场经验和行 业洞见,围绕区域实践、科技创新、产业应用、国际化发展等核心议题,展开深入探讨与交流。 上海全球金融科技中心建设加速 此次齐聚发生在上海,与上海作为全球金融中心和全球科创中心的定位和发展环境密不可分。 《全球金融科技中心发展指数报告(2024)》显示,上海在全球22个城市中总指数连续两年排名第三,仅次于纽约及伦敦。报告还指出,上海金融科技 应用水平领先,在研发投入和创新成果、信息科技产业规模上,上海显著优于伦敦。同时,上海的国际化程度和营商环境在国内领先,并拥有外汇交易中 心、上证所、上期所、中金所等重要金融基础设施,是全球金融要素市场最齐全的城市之一。 (余继超 摄) 据悉,9月12日为外滩大会全球主题日。新加坡 ...
两融余额创新高,意味着市场还能上行?资金逢跌抢筹!百亿金融科技ETF(159851)获资金净申购超4.93亿份
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-09-02 12:05
Group 1 - The financial technology sector experienced a significant decline, with the billion-level financial technology ETF (159851) dropping by 4.95%, breaking below the 10-day moving average [1][3] - Despite the market correction, net subscriptions for the ETF exceeded 493 million units, with a total trading volume surpassing 1.6 billion yuan, reflecting a 38% increase compared to the previous day [1][3] - Key stocks within the ETF saw substantial losses, including Dongxin Peace, Hengbao Co., and Zhongke Jincai, which all hit the daily limit down, while stocks like Yinzhijie and Wealth Trend gained over 2% [1][3] Group 2 - As of September 1, the margin financing balance in A-shares reached a historical high of 2.3 trillion yuan, surpassing the previous peak of 2.27 trillion yuan from June 18, 2015, with an increase of 35.643 billion yuan from the previous day [2][3] - Analysts noted that although the margin financing is at a high level, the financing balance as a percentage of the circulating market value is still significantly lower than historical peaks, indicating potential for further growth [3] - The increase in margin financing reflects a more active market and a higher profit-making effect, suggesting that the index may continue to rise in the coming month [3] Group 3 - The financial technology ETF (159851) is viewed as a "bull market thermometer" with high elasticity, indicating that the sector is sensitive to market conditions and can significantly benefit from bullish trends [3][4] - The ETF passively tracks the CSI Financial Technology Theme Index, providing exposure to key players in the financial technology space, including internet brokers and financial IT service providers [4] - The ongoing digitalization and intelligence in the financial sector, particularly the integration of AI, is expected to drive demand for financial IT services, presenting growth opportunities for companies in this space [4]
联易融科技-W(09959)9月2日斥资983.9万港元回购367万股
智通财经网· 2025-09-02 10:18
智通财经APP讯,联易融科技-W(09959)发布公告,于2025年9月2日斥资983.9万港元回购股份367万 股,每股回购价格为2.62-2.72港元。 ...
炒股APP哪家强?新浪财经APP的制胜之道
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-02 09:25
Core Viewpoint - The Sina Finance APP stands out as the preferred choice for investors due to its powerful features and high usability in the era of digital stock trading [1] Market Coverage - The Sina Finance APP covers over 40 markets including A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, US stocks, futures, and foreign exchange, providing millisecond-level real-time quotes [2] - In comparison, Tencent's self-selected stocks focus mainly on the stock market, while Futu NiuNiu and Tiger Brokers primarily target Hong Kong and US markets, with weaker support for A-shares [2] Information Services - Sina Finance has a professional editorial team that provides authoritative and timely updates on financial reports, company dynamics, and macroeconomic policies, with a lead time of 5-10 seconds for major events [3] - Futu NiuNiu also offers global business and financial news updates but lacks the same level of authority and timeliness as Sina Finance [3] Intelligent Decision-Making Tools - The AI tools of Sina Finance are robust, featuring an "AI Strategy Factory" for Python strategy backtesting and a "Capital Compass" function that improves accuracy by 47% compared to traditional analysis [4] - Futu NiuNiu offers various data application tools but falls short in the depth and breadth of intelligent decision-making compared to Sina Finance [4] Community Ecosystem - Sina Finance integrates seamlessly with the Weibo platform, filtering professional insights with 82% of certified analysts, effectively blocking 99% of noise [5] - Futu NiuNiu has a vibrant community but lacks the professional authority found in Sina Finance [5] Trading Dimensions - Sina Finance has built a "news → analysis → trading" ecosystem, allowing users to complete transactions in under 60 seconds through partnerships with multiple brokers [6] - Futu NiuNiu excels in trading functionality but does not match the comprehensive information and authority of Sina Finance [7] Summary - Overall, the Sina Finance APP demonstrates strong capabilities across multiple dimensions, making it the best choice for both professional investors and retail traders seeking comprehensive, timely, and accurate investment information [8]
活动报名丨2025外滩大会:政产学研各界共同探讨金融科技与央行数字货币应用的前沿动态
清华金融评论· 2025-09-02 09:18
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant role of fintech innovations and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) in transforming payment systems in the digital economy, highlighting their strategic importance for enhancing financial competitiveness and better serving the real economy [2][6]. Group 1: Current Trends and Developments - The digital economy and digital finance are experiencing rapid growth, with technologies such as large models, cloud computing, blockchain, and smart contracts being widely applied [6][7]. - CBDCs are identified as crucial new payment tools that are reshaping both retail and industrial payment systems [6][9]. Group 2: Forum Agenda and Discussions - The forum will feature discussions on the progress of fintech innovations and applications, focusing on the current status, prospects, and challenges of digital technologies in the financial sector [7][9]. - A report on the latest developments and applications of CBDCs will be released during the forum [7][8]. Group 3: Key Speakers and Participants - Notable speakers include Chen Wenhui, former Vice Chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, and Mu Changchun, Director of the Digital Currency Research Institute of the People's Bank of China [8][9]. - The forum will also include a roundtable discussion on how CBDCs can support the real economy, addressing new trends and characteristics in trade development [9][10].
金融科技大跌超4!场内持续溢价!巨额资金逆市暴买热门ETF(159851)超2.4亿份
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-02 08:27
Group 1 - The financial technology sector experienced a significant decline, with popular concept stocks like digital currencies retreating. The financial technology ETF (159851) dropped over 4% intraday, falling below the 10-day moving average, yet continued to trade at a premium with net subscriptions exceeding 240 million shares and a trading volume approaching 1 billion yuan, indicating a notable increase in activity [1] - Guotai Junan Securities expressed optimism regarding the active capital market, highlighting strong policy expectations for non-bank institutions closely related to the capital market. This suggests a favorable outlook for financial technology, particularly for consumer-facing stock trading software companies and B2B financial technology firms benefiting from regulatory support for system upgrades [1] - GF Securities noted that with sustained capital inflows, the balance of margin trading, market turnover, and monthly active users (MAU) expectations are likely to expand, potentially increasing the valuations of consumer-oriented securities IT companies. The report recommends focusing on financial technology firms that can act as "bull market amplifiers" to capitalize on market changes and growth opportunities [1] Group 2 - The financial technology ETF (159851) and its linked fund (013477) comprehensively cover themes such as internet brokerage, financial IT, cross-border payments, AI applications, and Huawei's HarmonyOS. As of September 1, the ETF's latest scale exceeded 10 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of over 600 million yuan, leading among three ETFs tracking the same index in terms of scale and liquidity [2]
外滩大会9月10日开幕,16位院士及图灵奖得主齐聚,宇树科技王兴兴确认出席
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-09-02 08:04
大会设置1场主论坛、40余场开放见解论坛、18场创新者舞台及3场AI科创赛事。 大会设置1场主论坛、40余场开放见解论坛、18场创新者舞台及3场AI科创赛事,并首次推出创投 Meetup。值得关注的是,本届大会将设立首个全球主题日,新加坡金融科技节、香港金融科技周主办 机构将与上海外滩大会共同开启亚洲金融科技三地对话。 第一财经记者获悉,"2025 Inclusion·外滩大会"将于9月10日至13日在上海黄浦世博园区举行。本届大会 汇聚16位院士及图灵奖得主、550余位行业领袖,包括强化学习之父理查德·萨顿、高性能计算先驱杰克· 唐加拉、《人类简史》作者尤瓦尔·赫拉利等国际知名学者,以及宇树科技创始人兼CEO王兴兴、 DeepWisdom创始人兼CEO吴承霖等科技企业代表。 ...