2025年10月25日，2025外滩年会，外滩圆桌"全球治理变局和全球问题的应对"，Olivier BLANCHARD发言 布兰查德是当代国际宏观经济学领域的领军学者，其撰写的经典教材《宏观经济学》影响了几代经济学人。近年，他关于低利率环境下的财政政策以及后 疫情时代的通胀成因等前沿研究，广受全球学者和政策制定者的重视。作为法国人，布兰查德职业生涯的大部分时间在美国度过，这也使他同时兼具对美 国经济的深刻理解与地道的欧洲视角。 布兰查德指出，目前为止，美国关税政策对全球经济实际造成的混乱没有预想中严重，更多体现为巨大的"噪音"和不确定性。从美国经济来看，特朗普幸 运地赶上了AI投资热潮。AI给美国带来了强劲的生产率增长，虽然尚不明确这源于AI的广泛应用还是仅仅是投资拉动，但经济衰退大概率不会再出现。 预计在AI推动下，未来一段时期美国经济运行仍将保持良好态势。然而，通胀压力不显可能只是暂时现象，随着分销商重构利润空间，通胀压力终会显 现。 在他看来，特朗普政府对规则的无视是一种不明显但更为持久的损害——传统贸易规则不再可靠，这令全球贸易体系陷入困境，并可能进一步导致贸易减 少和长期增长放缓。美国国内政治进程亦 ...

Core Viewpoint - The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) has progressed over 15 years, achieving significant milestones, and is now entering a new phase of cautious and steady advancement, particularly influenced by digital economy factors [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Digitalization and RMB Internationalization - Digital currency can enhance cross-border payment systems, improve payment processes, and reduce transaction costs, thereby facilitating RMB internationalization [3][6]. - The People's Bank of China is actively involved in the mBridge project, which aims to innovate cross-border payment systems and enhance the digital currency landscape [6][10]. - Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) can streamline cross-border payment processes, integrate fund and information flows, and improve payment efficiency, positively impacting the international use of the RMB [6][9]. Group 2: Trade Digitalization and RMB Internationalization - Trade digitalization is expected to optimize trade models, reduce costs, and enhance the international competitiveness of Chinese enterprises, thereby increasing the demand for RMB in international trade [11][12]. - The shift towards digital trade allows for improved negotiation power and currency choice in trade settlements, which can further promote RMB internationalization [13][14]. - Digital trade platforms are emerging, creating a digital ecosystem that supports various cross-border payment scenarios, enhancing the RMB's international usability [15][16]. Group 3: Financial Digitalization and RMB Internationalization - Digital finance, through technological innovation, can change financial product service models, enhance market depth and breadth, and promote low-cost, high-efficiency financial services, increasing the global use of the RMB [17][18]. - The development of digital finance can lower transaction costs and improve transaction efficiency, thereby encouraging the international use of the RMB [19][20]. - Digital finance can also enhance financial inclusivity, providing more accessible financial services to underserved populations, which can expand the RMB's application scenarios [19][20].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the rapid rise of stablecoins as a crucial element in reshaping financial infrastructure, particularly following legislative developments in the US and Hong Kong [3] - The book "Stablecoins: Reshaping the Global Financial Order" provides a comprehensive framework for understanding stablecoins, including their origins, business models, applications, risks, and global regulatory landscape [3] - The concept of "general equivalent" in currency is highlighted, indicating that the definition of money must evolve with time, as traditional commodity money has become obsolete [5] Group 2 - Keynes' contributions to monetary theory are discussed, particularly his views on deposits as a form of money and the concept of "endogenous money," which posits that money is created through the loan-deposit process [6] - The article argues against the notion of "supranational currency," asserting that currency is fundamentally tied to national sovereignty and cannot be eliminated as long as sovereign states exist [8] - The complexities of cross-border payments and the inherent exchange rate issues are acknowledged, emphasizing that currency remains a sovereign entity despite technological advancements [9] Group 3 - The article introduces the idea of "layered currency," referencing Marxist political economy to explain the different layers of money, from cash to various forms of digital currency [11] - The emergence of digital currencies complicates the traditional understanding of currency layers, with stablecoins adding a new dimension to the existing monetary hierarchy [12] - The discussion on the role of central banks in issuing currency and the implications of digital currencies on monetary policy and financial systems is presented [12]

Core Insights - Digital assets have transitioned from "marginal innovation" to "mainstream allocation," becoming a focal point in global financial markets due to advancements in digital technology, financial inclusivity, and clearer regulations [3][10] - Major economies are strategically positioning themselves in the digital asset space, making it a frontier for the reconstruction of financial systems and geopolitical competition [3][10] Digital Asset Overview - Digital assets generally consist of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and crypto assets, which include stablecoins, real-world assets (RWAs), and virtual assets [4] - As of August 2025, the total market capitalization of global crypto assets reached $3.9 trillion, with Bitcoin accounting for over 56% [4] - The U.S. is accelerating the establishment of a regulatory framework through various legislations, while the EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation has come into full effect [4][10] Challenges in Digital Asset Development - Technological challenges include security vulnerabilities, interoperability issues, and the need for unified communication standards [5] - Regulatory challenges stem from fragmented rules and cross-border enforcement disputes, leading to high compliance costs [5] - Market challenges include insufficient liquidity in secondary markets and uncertainties regarding asset ownership and bankruptcy isolation [5] Future Directions for Digital Assets - The significance of developing digital assets lies in their potential to enhance economic efficiency and reduce transaction costs, particularly in facilitating data sharing and cross-border payments [6] - The value foundation of digital assets varies, with CBDCs having a clear value basis, while the stability of stablecoins depends on the market value and liquidity of their collateral [6] - The role of stablecoins in reshaping cross-border payment systems and the international monetary framework is under scrutiny, with challenges related to liquidity management and regulatory uncertainties [6] Global Monetary System Evolution - The international monetary system is showing signs of fragmentation due to geopolitical competition and technological changes, presenting opportunities for other reserve currencies [7] - Strengthening institutional frameworks and further opening capital accounts are essential for leveraging the advantages of digital assets [7] Thematic Exploration in Digital Assets - The October issue of Tsinghua Financial Review features a cover topic on global digital assets, inviting experts to discuss the interaction between digital assets and the monetary financial system from multiple dimensions [12]

Core Viewpoint - The evolution of currency forms is driven by both private and state influences, with current trends indicating a shift from a dollar-dominated international monetary system towards a multipolar framework, emphasizing the importance of real economic competitiveness and technological innovation over mere capital account openness [2][3][19]. Group 1: Evolution of Currency Forms - Currency can be understood through two dimensions: commodity money vs. credit money, and private money vs. state money [4][5]. - The historical transition from commodity money to credit money reflects the need for efficient payment systems, with modern banking systems evolving into public-private partnerships supported by government credit [4][6]. - Recent developments in digital currencies highlight the competition between state-backed central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and private cryptocurrencies, with the latter often seen as extensions of existing monetary systems [5][6][8]. Group 2: Trends in International Monetary System - The international monetary system has been significantly influenced by globalization and financialization, but recent geopolitical tensions and financial crises have accelerated trends of de-globalization and de-financialization [3][19][21]. - The shift towards bilateral and limited multilateral trade cooperation indicates a decline in the relative importance of financial assets compared to real assets, which may have profound implications for the international monetary system and the internationalization of the renminbi [19][20][24]. Group 3: Digital Currency Dynamics - Platform currencies, such as WeChat Pay and Alipay, leverage network effects to gain systemic importance, disrupting traditional banking models and creating new payment channels [9][10]. - Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) can either serve as cash substitutes or as interest-bearing assets, with their impact on the financial system largely dependent on whether they pay interest [11][14]. - Stablecoins, which are pegged to high liquidity assets like the US dollar, operate similarly to narrow banking models, emphasizing the need for high-quality reserves to maintain stability [15][18]. Group 4: US Cryptocurrency Strategy - The US faces challenges in maintaining the dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency amid rising concerns over its long-term creditworthiness [34][36]. - The US government's strategy to utilize stablecoins as a means to reinforce dollarization reflects an attempt to monetize fiscal deficits while expanding the demand for US Treasury securities [35][40]. - However, the effectiveness of this strategy may be hindered by competition from other currencies and the inherent vulnerabilities of stablecoins, which are subject to market dynamics and regulatory scrutiny [42][43]. Group 5: Future of the International Monetary System - The international monetary system is likely to evolve towards a multipolar structure, with the renminbi's internationalization being driven by real economic strength and technological advancements rather than solely by capital account liberalization [2][19][52]. - The geopolitical landscape and economic policies will play crucial roles in shaping the future dynamics of global currency competition and cooperation [24][52].

Group 1: Global Economic Landscape - The global economic landscape is undergoing profound changes, characterized by rule restructuring, geopolitical tensions, and technological revolutions, leading to a reconfiguration of trade orders [1] - The rise of trade protectionism is increasing operational costs and uncertainties for enterprises, necessitating a reshaping of layouts and a focus on technological innovation and brand building for Chinese companies [1] Group 2: Financial System and Digital Technology - Digital technology is becoming a core force in reshaping the financial system, with accelerated development of central bank digital currencies and improved regulation of private digital currencies impacting cross-border payments and financial security [2] - The evolution of stablecoins presents a historic opportunity for establishing a fairer international trade payment system, requiring strategic planning and a globally recognized regulatory framework for safe cross-chain circulation [2] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - There is a growing focus among global investors on whether the Chinese market is entering a new growth cycle amid the restructuring of global capital flows and the upgrading of the Chinese economy [2] - Predictions indicate that more supportive policies will be introduced in China in Q4, enhancing market participation, with expectations of a gradual recovery in the commodity market and upstream deflation [2]

Group 1: Overview of Stablecoin Development in Hong Kong - The integration of traditional finance and digital assets is accelerating in Hong Kong, with stablecoins seen as a bridge between the two worlds [1][2] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) plans to open applications for the first stablecoin issuer licenses between August 1 and September 30, 2025, with 77 entities expressing interest as of August 31 [1][8] - Regulatory bodies, including the HKMA and the Securities and Futures Commission, have issued warnings about the need for investor caution, indicating that only a few licenses will be granted initially [1][5] Group 2: Regulatory Environment and Market Reactions - The tightening of regulations is viewed as a double-edged sword, potentially increasing innovation costs for early adopters while ensuring market safety [5][6] - KYC (Know Your Customer) and AML (Anti-Money Laundering) regulations are emphasized, requiring stablecoin issuers to retain user identity information for over five years [5][6] - Some market participants believe that stricter regulations could ultimately benefit the industry by protecting participants' rights and attracting more users [7][8] Group 3: Market Opportunities and Use Cases - Stablecoins are expected to play a significant role in cross-border payments, leveraging Hong Kong's position as a trade hub [8][9] - The potential for stablecoins extends beyond payments, with possibilities for tokenizing Real World Assets (RWA), thereby enhancing liquidity and investment opportunities [15][16] - The market for stablecoins is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting a market size of $500 billion to $750 billion in the coming years [10] Group 4: Digital Currency Experiments and Innovations - Hong Kong is exploring various digital currency initiatives, including the m-CBDC Bridge project for central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and tokenized deposits [11][12] - The interplay between stablecoins and CBDCs is seen as complementary, with stablecoins addressing retail payment needs while CBDCs focus on wholesale transactions [12][14] - HSBC has launched a tokenized deposit service, marking a significant step in the integration of blockchain technology into traditional banking [12][13] Group 5: RWA Tokenization and Future Prospects - The tokenization of RWA in Hong Kong is being pursued through a model that combines mainland assets with blockchain technology, focusing on sectors like renewable energy [17][18] - The development of RWA could facilitate the internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB), with stablecoins potentially pegged to offshore RMB [21][22] - The success of RWA initiatives will depend on the standardization of underlying assets, particularly in the context of China's manufacturing and supply chain strengths [18][22]

Group 1 - The core argument is that the legalization of stablecoins does not guarantee their acceptance or success in all payment scenarios, as they are not legal tender and have specific application contexts [1][2][7] - The recent legislation in the US, Hong Kong, and the EU aims to regulate stablecoins, but existing stablecoins may not comply with the new rules, necessitating a transition period for issuers [2][4] - Stablecoins are primarily seen as payment intermediaries rather than currencies themselves, and their use is contingent on the existence of a transaction need [2][7] Group 2 - The article outlines four potential strategies for stablecoins post-legalization: maintaining existing markets while exploring new ones, reducing gray areas, integrating mainstream transactions on-chain, and identifying unique payment scenarios [8][10] - Current stablecoin applications are categorized into four types: virtual world payments, cross-border transactions to evade sanctions, usage in countries with unstable currencies, and illegal activities [8][9][10] - The main challenge for stablecoins in mainstream payment scenarios is that they do not offer advantages over legal tender in environments where the latter is readily available [10][11][13] Group 3 - Retail payment scenarios for stablecoins include general retail transactions and merchant-issued stablecoins, which face limitations in acceptance across different platforms [12][11] - In domestic and cross-border trade payments, stablecoins have not demonstrated significant advantages, as traditional currencies remain the preferred method for transactions [13][14] - The potential for stablecoins to serve as a transitional tool for companies navigating foreign exchange regulations is highlighted, particularly for businesses operating in multiple jurisdictions [15][16] Group 4 - The article discusses the concept of tokenized financial instruments, such as bills of exchange, which may be more appealing than stablecoins due to their dual function of payment and financing [19][20] - The idea of deposit tokenization is presented as a more advantageous alternative to stablecoins, as it directly links to bank deposits and offers seamless integration with existing banking systems [20] - The regulatory landscape in the US is characterized by a balance between maintaining financial order and allowing space for innovation in the cryptocurrency sector [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant role of fintech innovations and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) in transforming payment systems in the digital economy, highlighting their strategic importance for enhancing financial competitiveness and better serving the real economy [2][6]. Group 1: Current Trends and Developments - The digital economy and digital finance are experiencing rapid growth, with technologies such as large models, cloud computing, blockchain, and smart contracts being widely applied [6][7]. - CBDCs are identified as crucial new payment tools that are reshaping both retail and industrial payment systems [6][9]. Group 2: Forum Agenda and Discussions - The forum will feature discussions on the progress of fintech innovations and applications, focusing on the current status, prospects, and challenges of digital technologies in the financial sector [7][9]. - A report on the latest developments and applications of CBDCs will be released during the forum [7][8]. Group 3: Key Speakers and Participants - Notable speakers include Chen Wenhui, former Vice Chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, and Mu Changchun, Director of the Digital Currency Research Institute of the People's Bank of China [8][9]. - The forum will also include a roundtable discussion on how CBDCs can support the real economy, addressing new trends and characteristics in trade development [9][10].

Core Insights - Pakistan announced a collaboration with Japan to launch a central bank digital currency pilot project, which coincides with high-level talks between China and India, suggesting strategic implications beyond mere economic cooperation [1][7]. Group 1: Strategic Considerations - The choice of Japan as a partner for digital currency development is surprising, given Pakistan's close ties with China, which has provided significant infrastructure investment under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) [3]. - This partnership is viewed as an attempt at diplomatic diversification, signaling Pakistan's desire to break away from a singular dependency on China and showcase its autonomy in selecting partners [4][9]. - The timing of the announcement, just before the China-India talks, raises questions about Pakistan's strategic intentions and its efforts to balance relations amid geopolitical tensions involving the U.S. and Japan [7][9]. Group 2: Technological and Infrastructural Challenges - Japan is not a global leader in digital currency technology, with its "digital yen" trials still in preliminary stages, while China's digital yuan has already reached over 200 million users across various applications [4]. - Pakistan faces significant technological and infrastructural challenges, including a smartphone penetration rate of approximately 68% and an internet penetration rate of only 29%, which are insufficient for establishing a digital currency network for 100 million users [6][7]. - The low public awareness of digital currencies in Pakistan poses additional hurdles in building trust and ensuring transaction security during the rollout of the digital currency [7]. Group 3: Potential Impacts on Bilateral Relations - The collaboration with Japan may have subtle implications for Pakistan's relationship with China, prompting a reassessment of the strategic significance of their partnership [9]. - Despite the controversies, the project could provide positive outcomes for Pakistan, leveraging Japan's financial governance experience to accelerate its transition to a cashless economy [9].