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晨报|美国经济衰退风险上升
中信证券研究· 2025-03-13 00:22
Group 1: Economic Outlook - The February CPI growth in the U.S. was lower than expected, indicating a continued cooling trend in inflation, but did not reflect the impact of recent tariffs [1] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicts a -2.4% GDP for Q1 2025, highlighting rising recession risks due to various economic signals [2] - The U.S. job market shows signs of weakness, with rising unemployment rates and increased layoffs, suggesting a challenging economic environment ahead [2] Group 2: Commodity and Industry Analysis - The Congolese government's decision to suspend cobalt exports for four months could lead to a global cobalt supply shortage, potentially driving prices up [3] - The domestic storage market is expected to grow significantly, with industry value projected to reach $167 billion by 2024, driven by increased demand for AI and domestic replacements [7] - The domestic market for distribution systems is anticipated to expand significantly, with a projected market size of over 50 billion yuan for switchgear and 10-15 billion yuan for low-voltage electrical appliances by 2025 [11] Group 3: Market Trends and Investment Opportunities - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a structural bull market, driven by multiple factors including capital inflows and valuation advantages [9] - The textile and apparel sector is seeing rapid growth in urban outlet formats, with key players emerging in the market [4][5] - The magnesium alloy market is expected to grow due to increasing demand from automotive and robotics sectors, with domestic companies poised to benefit from this trend [12]