2025 年 08 月 25 日 德明利 (001309) ——25Q2 季度营收 29 亿元创新高，同环比均翻倍 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： 2025 年 08 月 25 日 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 99.61 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 163.58/61.99 | | 市净率 | 9.6 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 0.30 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 15,915 | | 上证指数/深证成指 3,883.56/12,441.07 | | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | 08-26 09-26 10-26 11-26 12-26 01-26 02-26 03-26 04-26 05-26 06-26 07-26 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 德明利 沪深300指数 (收益率) 相关研究 投资要点： 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2024 | 2025H1 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [2]. Core Views - The company is experiencing steady growth in its main business, with a focus on complex modules and automotive electronic smart terminals as future growth drivers [5][9]. - The company is actively expanding into the ASIC and enterprise-level storage module markets, which are expected to open up new growth opportunities [6][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a total share capital of 197.57 million shares and a market price of 27.10 yuan, resulting in a market capitalization of approximately 5,354.22 million yuan [4]. - The company has evolved from black-and-white LCD products to color screens, automotive displays, and complex modules, with a revenue composition of 61% from color LCD modules, 24% from monochrome modules, 12% from displays, and 2% from touch screens and others [4][18]. Financial Performance - The company has achieved a five-year revenue CAGR of approximately 24% and a net profit CAGR of about 33% [5][20]. - Revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are 1,267 million yuan, 1,477 million yuan, 1,765 million yuan, 2,198 million yuan, and 2,919 million yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 3%, 17%, 20%, 24%, and 33% [2]. - The net profit for the same period is projected to be 107 million yuan, 150 million yuan, 161 million yuan, 209 million yuan, and 306 million yuan, with growth rates of -9%, 40%, 7%, 29%, and 46% [2]. Market and Product Strategy - The company is focusing on complex modules and automotive electronic smart terminals, with significant R&D progress in smart serial display modules and variable light rearview mirror modules [5][30][33]. - The company is also investing in ASIC and enterprise-level storage modules, with a projected global market size for enterprise SSDs expected to reach 396 billion USD by 2029 [6][8]. Investment and Growth Potential - The company has established a full-chain layout for ASIC and enterprise-level storage modules through investments in Tianlianxin and Xincun Technology, enhancing its competitive edge in the semiconductor field [8][25]. - The company’s strategic focus on high-end production lines and complex modules is expected to drive future growth, particularly in the automotive sector [17][35].

7月30日晚，江波龙（301308）（301308）公告，公司3亿股限售股（占总股本71.57%），将于8月5日 开始上市流通。同时，公司披露了《关于公司控股股东、实际控制人及部分董事自愿承诺十二个月内不 主动减持公司股份的公告》。 公告显示，面临此次解禁，江波龙控股股东、实际控制人、董事长兼总经理蔡华波，实际控制人蔡丽 江，董事王景阳自愿承诺自2025年8月5日（即首发前限售股解禁当天）起的12个月内，不以任何方式主 动减持本人直接持有的公司股份。 经测算，得益于以上不减持承诺的影响，江波龙8月5日的股份解禁规模将大幅减少。整体可减持规模占 比从原来的71.57%，大幅度降低至28.30%；在股份数量上从原来的3亿股，大幅度降低至1.19亿股。巨 大的降幅，有效缓解了市场对集中解禁压力的担忧。 值得关注的是，作为公司实控人的一致行动人，江波龙首发前员工持股平台目前持有16.53%的股份 （合0.69亿股），解禁后也将遵守与公司实控人同等严格要求的减持比例和程序限制（如需要提前15个 交易日发布减持计划的公告，且90天通过集中竞价和大宗交易方式减持比例不超过3%的限制），所以 这部分0.69亿股也无法立刻减持 ...

Group 1: Company Growth and Market Position - The company is one of the few A-share listed companies that officially disclose specific enterprise-level storage product performance, achieving a revenue of 319 million CNY in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of over 200% [3] - The enterprise-level storage products have gained recognition from major clients across various industries, including large internet companies and telecom operators, indicating strong adaptability and reliability [3] - The company expects continued breakthroughs in enterprise-level business due to increasing demand for domestic storage products driven by AI applications and local security concerns [3] Group 2: TCM Model and Revenue Impact - The company has partnered with SanDisk to leverage its leading capabilities in main control chip development and packaging, aiming to launch customized high-quality UFS products for the mobile and IoT markets [4] - The TCM (Technology Contract Manufacturing) model is being actively promoted, enhancing visibility in supply and demand, which helps mitigate price fluctuations and create value [4] - Collaborations with Tier 1 clients like Transsion and ZTE under the TCM model are expected to yield significant results in the future [4] Group 3: Storage Price Trends - Following production cuts announced by major storage wafer manufacturers, market prices for storage products have begun to rise since late Q1 2025, with downstream demand showing substantial growth [5] - Independent reports indicate that the semiconductor storage market has been gradually recovering since the end of March 2025, with expectations of continued upward momentum in prices for server and mobile storage products in Q3 [5] Group 4: Self-Developed Main Control Chips - The company has launched three main control chips for eMMC, SD cards, and automotive-grade USB products, with cumulative applications exceeding 30 million units [6] - The self-developed main control chips are expected to see significant growth in application scale throughout 2025, maintaining a competitive edge in performance and power consumption [6] Group 5: Lexar and Zilia Business Growth - Lexar's global sales revenue reached over 3.5 billion CNY in 2024, with significant market share growth potential [6] - Zilia achieved a revenue of 2.312 billion CNY in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 120.15%, with Q1 2025 revenue increasing by 45.08% compared to the previous year [6] - The integration of Zilia into the company has enhanced its overseas market presence and product offerings, leveraging local manufacturing and service advantages [6]

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 4.773 billion, a year-on-year increase of 168.74%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 351 million, up 1302.30% year-on-year [1] - Q4 2024 revenue was 1.176 billion, a year-on-year increase of 47% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 17%; gross margin was 1.29%, down nearly 13 percentage points [1] - Q4 2024 was the only quarter with a loss, primarily due to rising storage costs, declining gross margin, and increased R&D, management expenses, and asset impairment losses [1] Product Development and Market Position - The company has established four major product lines: mobile storage, solid-state drives (SSDs), embedded storage, and memory modules, achieving significant revenue growth in 2024 [1] - Revenue from SSD products reached 2.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 235.46%, accounting for 48.20% of total revenue; embedded storage revenue was 843 million, up 1730.60% [1] - The company has developed nine proprietary control chips covering mobile storage and SATA SSDs, with ongoing R&D for PCIe/embedded control chips and modules [2] R&D and Investment - R&D personnel increased from 164 to 312, with R&D expenses rising from 108 million to 203 million [2] - In January 2025, the company plans to raise 990 million, with 359 million allocated to PCIe SSD control chips and storage module projects, and 457 million for embedded storage control chips and modules [2] Manufacturing and Operational Efficiency - The company has established an intelligent manufacturing base for self-supply of packaging, placement, and testing, with a testing line for enterprise-level storage products completed in 2024 [3] - The intelligent manufacturing base in Futian has achieved 50% completion by the end of 2023, forming a fully integrated digital operation management system [3] Market Outlook and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-26 has been revised down, with net profit estimates adjusted from 769 million/1.031 billion to 725 million/848 million, and a new estimate of 1.045 billion for 2027 [3] - The average PE ratio for comparable companies is 45X, which is 57% higher than the company's PE of 29X, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 169% year-on-year in 2024, with a focus on expanding into enterprise-level storage solutions in 2025 [1][3] - The company has completed its product line layout, including mobile storage, solid-state drives (SSDs), embedded storage, and memory modules, leading to a significant revenue increase in 2024 [7] - The company has developed nine self-researched main control chips, enhancing its competitive edge in the storage market [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 1,776 million in 2023 to 8,325 million in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 74.4% [3][9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 25 million in 2023 to 725 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 106.8% [3][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.22 in 2023 to 4.48 in 2025 [3][9] - The company's gross margin is expected to stabilize around 15.9% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) projected at 22.6% [3][9] Market Data - As of April 25, 2025, the closing price of the company's stock is 128.10, with a market capitalization of 11,226 million [4] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 59 in 2024 to 29 in 2025, indicating a more attractive valuation compared to peers [7][9]

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba announced that it will invest more in cloud and AI infrastructure over the next three years than in the past decade, which is expected to stimulate domestic AI capital expenditure growth [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - The global enterprise storage market is projected to reach nearly $45 billion in 2024, driven by the rise of AI models and a recent storage price increase cycle [2][19]. - Domestic capital expenditure in data centers is expected to remain above 600 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, propelling the domestic enterprise storage market to over 150 billion yuan [2][26]. - Currently, enterprise-grade NAND accounts for about 20% and enterprise-grade DRAM accounts for 30%-40% of the overall market, with expectations for continued growth in these segments [2][19]. Group 2: Product Comparison - Enterprise storage devices have significantly higher requirements for capacity, performance, and reliability compared to consumer-grade storage devices [5][6]. - Enterprise SSDs can reach capacities of around 8TB, while consumer SSDs typically range from 512GB to 1TB [8]. - The average mean time between failures (MTBF) for enterprise SSDs can reach 2 million hours, supporting 24/7 continuous operation, compared to about 1.5 million hours for consumer SSDs [6][8]. Group 3: Growth Drivers - The rise of AI technology is driving an increase in capital expenditure for data centers, with AI servers expected to account for a growing share of the market [21][22]. - The transition from mechanical hard drives to solid-state drives (SSDs) is being accelerated by the increasing proportion of "warm data" due to AI applications [21]. - AI server shipments are projected to grow significantly, with the storage value in AI servers being 2.25 times that of traditional servers [22][24]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The enterprise storage market is currently dominated by overseas manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix, which hold a significant share of the market [29][30]. - Domestic manufacturers have been gradually entering the enterprise storage market, but their current market share remains low [29][32]. - The need for domestic enterprise storage products is driven by data security and privacy concerns, making domestic alternatives increasingly necessary [32][33]. Group 5: Challenges and Opportunities - Domestic manufacturers face challenges in scaling up production capacity for enterprise-grade storage wafers, which currently rely heavily on imports [33][35]. - There is significant potential for domestic replacement in supporting chips for enterprise storage, with companies like 澜起科技 already holding substantial market shares [36][37]. - The long-term goal is to achieve self-sufficiency in enterprise storage components, although current reliance on foreign suppliers remains a challenge [37].