Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that in May 2025, China's exports of wooden products for household or decorative use reached 80,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 5% [1] - The export value for the same period was $24.6 million, which reflects a year-on-year decrease of 2% [1] - The data is sourced from China Customs and organized by Zhiyan Consulting [3]

Group 1 - In May 2025, China's import volume of wood and its products was 3.98 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.9%, with an import value of 1.127 billion USD, down 19.5% year-on-year [1] - In May 2025, China's export volume of wood and its products was 1.46 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.2%, with an export value of 1.461 billion USD, up 3.6% year-on-year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US manufacturing sector continues to experience contraction, with the ISM manufacturing index indicating a decline in orders and employment, while inflationary pressures are showing signs of acceleration [1][3]. Group 1: ISM Manufacturing Data - The ISM manufacturing PMI for June is reported at 49, slightly above the expected 48.8 and the previous value of 48.5, with 50 being the threshold for expansion [3]. - The new orders index fell to 46.4, below the expected 48.1 and previous 47.6, marking the largest decline in three months and reflecting ongoing economic slowdown [6]. - The employment index dropped to 45, a three-month low, with expectations at 47.1 and a previous value of 46.8, indicating five consecutive months of contraction in employment [6]. - The prices paid index reached 69.7, close to the highest level since June 2022, with expectations at 69.5 and a previous value of 69.4, highlighting rising raw material costs [6]. - The backlog of orders index decreased by 2.8 points to 44.3, the largest drop in a year, and has been in contraction for 33 consecutive months [6]. Group 2: Employment and Industry Analysis - Weak demand and reduced order backlogs are contributing to the accelerated decline in manufacturing employment, with a significant ratio of comments indicating layoffs compared to hiring [7]. - In June, nine manufacturing sectors experienced growth, with notable increases in apparel, petroleum, and non-metallic mineral products, while six sectors, including textiles and wood products, contracted [7]. - The S&P Global reported a Markit manufacturing PMI final value of 52.9 for June, indicating a recovery in manufacturing output after three months of decline, driven by new orders from domestic and export customers [7]. Group 3: Economic Outlook and Price Pressures - The improvement in manufacturing output may be partially driven by inventory accumulation as companies prepare for potential supply issues and price increases related to tariffs [8]. - There are concerns regarding whether the current price pressures are a short-term adjustment or indicative of persistent inflation returning [8]. - Despite the challenges, business confidence has been recovering since April, with manufacturers feeling more optimistic amid reduced trade and tariff uncertainties [8].

Inventory Analysis - As of February, the overall actual inventory-to-sales ratio in the U.S. manufacturing and trade sectors is approximately 1.5 months, with manufacturers at 1.9 months, wholesalers at 1.3 months, and retailers at 1.4 months, all at low percentiles since the pandemic[2] - If assuming that the inventory of manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers only serves domestic retail sales, the overall inventory could cover about 4.2 months of sales[2] - The low inventory-to-sales ratio may indicate limited buffer space against supply-demand imbalances, potentially leading to upward pressure on inflation[2] Industry-Specific Insights - In the retail sector, the actual inventory-to-sales ratio for furniture, appliances, and consumer electronics is low at only 1 month, placing it in the 6.5% percentile since the pandemic[3] - Conversely, the inventory-to-sales ratio for motor vehicles and parts, as well as building materials, exceeds 2 months, with motor vehicles at approximately 2.5 months (88.5% percentile) and building materials at about 2 months (85.2% percentile)[3] - In manufacturing and wholesale, machinery, textile raw materials, and related products have higher inventory-to-sales ratios, all exceeding 2 months, with machinery at 2.9 months (83.6% percentile) and textile raw materials at 2.8 months (70.4% percentile)[3] PMI and Inventory Trends - As of April, the ISM manufacturing PMI inventory index decreased to 50.8% from 53.4% in March, indicating a cooling in pre-tariff stockpiling behavior[4] - The customer inventory index remains low at 46.2%, suggesting concerns about the sustainability of overall manufacturing inventory levels[4] - Among 18 manufacturing sectors, 5 reported increased inventory in April, while 8 sectors, including textiles and transportation equipment, saw declines[4]