2025 年 10 月 6 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 Market Strategy - PMI 显示经济放缓 美国 9 月服务业 PMI 扩张停滞，产需双双走弱，就业小幅回升，但物价指数仍然 高企。制造业 PMI 收缩幅度趋缓，需求走弱，生产和就业回升，物价指数小幅下 降。库存指数收缩加剧，企业不断消耗提前积累的库存。PMI 指向经济放缓，就 业底部企稳但价格压力仍大，多数受访者提到关税对成本影响和需求不振。10 月 政府停摆将导致七十万联邦员工无薪休假，同时白宫冻结了近 300 亿转移支付。 预计每停摆一周将拖累 GDP 0.1-0.2 个百分点，短期停摆对市场影响较小，时间 超 2 周可能推升市场避险情绪。本月非农数据暂未公布，但通过各州首次领取失 业金人数加总后得出 9 月末首次失业人数较月初有所下降，显示就业市场未进一 步走弱。我们预计停摆可能会在 2 周内结束，联储 10 月会议可能仍会有 9 月数据 做参考，目前市场对 10 月降息的预期为 96.2%。由于就业数据再次改善而通胀仍 显著高于目标，我们认为美联储或会在 10 月暂停降息。随着经济持续放缓，美联 储 ...

Economic Indicators - The ISM Services PMI increased from 50.1 in July to 52 in August, exceeding market expectations of 51, indicating economic expansion[2] - The Services PMI corresponds to an annualized GDP growth rate of 1.1%[2] - The Manufacturing PMI rose slightly from 48 in July to 48.7 in August, but remained below the market expectation of 49, indicating a continued contraction[2] Employment and Inflation - The employment index in the services sector slightly improved from 46.4 to 46.5, indicating ongoing weakness in the job market[2] - The price index for services decreased marginally from 69.9 to 69.2, but remains significantly high compared to the post-pandemic average[2] - If August's non-farm payrolls are below 50,000 and the unemployment rate rises to 4.3%, the Federal Reserve may consider rate cuts in September or October[1] Market Outlook - The new orders index in manufacturing surged from 47.1 to 51.4, marking the highest expansion rate since the beginning of the year[2] - The Federal Reserve's focus has shifted from inflation risks to a more balanced assessment due to recent labor market data adjustments[2] - Further rate cuts are anticipated in December and potentially two more in the following year as economic growth stabilizes and inflation decreases[1]