时差艺术：减持数据公布当日，穆迪将美国评级从AAA砍至AA1，三大机构集体亮红灯。 当全球还在围观美联储加息缩表时，中国悄然完成了一场教科书级的金融突袭——3月单月抛售276亿美元长期美债，直接改写全球债主排 名。这一刀砍得精准：英国被动接盘成为美国第二大债主，而中国持仓降至7654亿，却将"金融核弹"的引信攥得更紧。这绝非普通的外汇 操作，而是踩着特朗普关税大棒的节奏，在美国经济命脉上埋下定时炸弹。 美债神话的崩塌前夜 美债曾是全球资本的"避险天堂"，但特朗普政府亲手砸碎了这块金字招牌。2016年白宫抛出"百年美债"构想时，市场已嗅到赖账气息； 2024年4月"对等关税"政策落地，60国遭殃，美债利率应声飙破5%。中国此时连续7个月减持，堪称神级预判： 黄金储备暴增至7377万盎司，外汇储备中美元占比缩水； "抛长买短"战术：减持长期债规避暴跌风险，增持短期债掌握谈判筹码； 特朗普的"自杀式冒险" 当美国政府忙着用关税大棒敲打全球时，中国早已在棋盘外另起炉灶： 稀土反制：一纸出口管制令，直接掐住美国F-35战机与新能源产业的咽喉； 本币结算突围：与沙特、阿联酋达成800亿能源大单，数字人民币结算石油的传闻甚 ...

金十数据5月19日讯，穆迪评级将美国评级从Aaa下调至Aa1，导致长期国债收益率上升，30年期国债收 益率突破了5%的关键水平。KBC分析师在一份报告中表示，评级下调立即引发了长期收益率的膝跳反 应。不过，他们说，考虑到美国政府的预算状况，下调评级决定并不令人意外。此举"在很大程度上是 象征性的，因为另外两家评级机构此前已经下调了评级。" 穆迪下调美国评级，30年期美国国债收益率升至5%以上 ...

【资讯导读】 ·穆迪将美国主权信用评级从Aaa下调至Aa1 ·美国与欧盟启动贸易谈判旨在减轻特朗普关税政策的影响 ·特朗普在社交平台敦促美联储降息，严厉批评美联储主席鲍威尔行动迟缓，认为尽早降息对经济更有 利。 ·由于共和党内部成本分歧，特朗普税收法案未能通过众议院小组委员会审议，强硬保守派寻求进一步 削减医疗补助。 ·美联储计划未来几年裁员10%，并提供年长员工延迟辞职选项。马斯克此前曾称美联储"人员臃肿得离 谱"。 ·亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克预计2025年可能进行一次降息，今年经济增长或在0.5%至1%之间，但不会 陷入衰退。 ·3月日本增持美国国债至11308亿美元，中国减持至7654亿美元。英国增持至7793亿美元，成为第二大 持有国。海外净流入美国证券和银行现金流总额为2543亿美元。 ·欧洲央行管委温施指出，可能需将利率下调至2%以下以应对增长和通胀的下行风险。 ·特朗普在社交平台敦促美联储降息批评鲍威尔行动迟缓 ·特朗普税收法案未能通过众议院小组委员会审议 【市场资讯】 ·国际信用评级机构穆迪将美国主权信用评级从Aaa下调至Aa1，因债务和利率支付比例增加，并将展望 调整为"稳定"。至此，美国被 ...

现在回旋镖打在了自己身上…… 那为什么会被下调呢？ 穆迪给出的原因是"美国政府债务和利率支付比例增加"，说的很直白： 1、财政赤字增加 近年来，美国每年的财政赤字接近2万亿美元， 名义债务已突破36万亿美元，占GDP的比例超过6%。 先说第一件事情，美国已被三大评级机构全部降级。 穆迪宣布 决定将美国主权信用评级从Aaa下调至Aa1，展望从负面转为稳定。 也就是说，最后一家评级巨头也剥夺美国AAA评级了。 国际三大信用评级机构有标普、惠誉和穆迪： 早在2011年， 标普 就将美国长期主权信用评级由AAA降至AA+，当时还受到了美国财政部的严厉批评。 2023年8月， 惠誉 也取消了美国的AAA评级，并预计，美国财政状况将趋于恶化，联邦政府债务高居不下且不断攀升。 现在， 穆迪 也剥夺了美国AAA评级，主要就是因为美国政府的债务问题。川普政府赶紧就批评了这一决定，并指责穆迪缺乏声誉。 有意思的是，2012年川普发过一条推文，推预测美国将要被再次下调信用评级。当时他想要阴阳一下当时的美国总统奥巴马。 穆迪预计，到2035年，债务负担将上升至GDP的约134%。 3、关税战导致经济走弱，偿债能力变弱 现在川普发起关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The cancellation of mandatory credit ratings in China's bond market has led to a significant shift in the operations of credit rating agencies, with a notable increase in the number of issuer ratings compared to bond ratings, indicating a market-driven approach to credit assessment [1][2][5]. Group 1: Changes in Credit Rating Practices - Since the removal of mandatory ratings, the number of issuer ratings has increased significantly, with 2,787 issuer ratings in Q4 2023, a 64.81% year-on-year increase, surpassing the 2,744 bond products rated in the same period [1]. - In 2023, the total number of issuer ratings reached 10,707, which is on par with the number of bond ratings, indicating a shift in focus towards issuer assessments [1]. - The number of bonds rated without a bond rating has risen sharply, with 15,944 such bonds issued in 2024, accounting for 63.74% of the total, compared to 5,768 bonds (59.85%) in 2021 [4]. Group 2: Cost Implications for Issuers - Despite the removal of mandatory ratings, issuers have not seen a significant reduction in rating costs, as investors still require credit ratings for compliance purposes [2]. - Rating agencies have adjusted their fee structures, leading to higher overall costs for issuers, particularly for those with longer-term bonds that require annual issuer rating fees [7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Rating Agency Operations - The shift towards issuer ratings has resulted in a "reverse" situation where the number of issuer ratings exceeds that of bond ratings for several major rating agencies [5][6]. - Major rating agencies have reported varying numbers of issuer and bond ratings, with some agencies issuing significantly more issuer ratings than bond ratings, reflecting the changing market demand [6][7]. - The trend of bundling ratings for multiple entities under a single issuer has emerged, allowing agencies to charge higher fees and potentially inflate issuer ratings [2][9]. Group 4: Regulatory and Structural Changes - The regulatory environment is evolving, with the China Interbank Market Dealers Association encouraging issuers to select multiple rating agencies to enhance the credibility of ratings through cross-verification [8]. - As of the end of 2024, 965 issuers had received ratings from two or more agencies, with a 6.42% inconsistency rate in ratings, indicating ongoing challenges in rating standardization [9]. Group 5: Future Directions for Rating Agencies - Leading rating agencies are focusing on expanding their international business and investor services, enhancing their influence in global markets and providing consulting services to investors [10].

First Quarter 2025 Financial Results May 1, 2025 Commercial in Confidence Disclaimer This presentation contains statements that are not purely historical but are forward-looking statements, including statements regarding expectations, hopes, intentions or strategies regarding the future. Forward-looking statements are based on Dun & Bradstreet's management's beliefs, as well as assumptions made by, and information currently available to, them. Forward-looking statements can be identified by words such as "a ...

1Q 2025 Earnings Supplemental Disclosure No content below the line No content below the line April 29, 2025 1 Always copy slides into a new presentation using Paste Options / Paste Special Use Destination Theme Default Footer text on all slides is "S&P Global – Internal Use Only" – to change / remove use Insert Tab Header & Footer Enter / change text Click Apply All. When adding colors, don't use the variants or the Standard Colors of the Theme Colors. Only use the Data Visualization colors for charts. Data ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Moody's achieved record revenue of $1.9 billion in Q1 2025, up 8% year-over-year [12][36] - Adjusted operating margin reached 51.7%, an increase of 100 basis points from the previous year [12][36] - Adjusted diluted EPS grew 14% to $3.83 [12][36] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Moody's Investors Service (MIS) revenue grew 8% with issuance growth of 9%, achieving quarterly revenue of $1.1 billion [12][36] - Moody's Analytics (MA) revenue was $859 million, also up 8%, with Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) growth of 9% [36][37] - Decision Solutions within MA saw ARR growth of 12%, driven by KYC, insurance, and banking solutions [37][39] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Private credit was a significant contributor to growth, with 143 private credit-related deals in Q1 2025, up from 69 in Q1 2024 [13][14] - Data center debt issuance reached $4 billion in Q1 2025, indicating strong demand for financing in digital infrastructure [16][17] - Economic losses from extreme weather events in Q1 2025 were reported at $83 billion, above the 21st-century average [33] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on enhancing its earnings power and market position amidst economic volatility [11][28] - Investments in AI and digital transformation are central to the company's strategy, with a focus on generative AI to drive growth and efficiency [22][23] - A partnership with MSCI aims to provide independent risk assessments for private credit investments, enhancing transparency in the market [31][123] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged increased uncertainty in the market due to tariffs and economic conditions, leading to a more conservative guidance approach [28][44] - The company expects a decrease in MIS rated issuance for 2025, projecting low to high single-digit declines [46][48] - Despite short-term challenges, management remains confident in the long-term demand for their solutions driven by deep market currents [30][55] Other Important Information - The company maintains a strong financial profile and plans to return at least $1.3 billion to shareholders in 2025 [54] - Adjusted diluted EPS guidance for 2025 is set between $13.25 and $14, representing a 9% growth at the midpoint [52] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you walk us through your assumptions around what acquisitions were included in the prior guidance versus now? - No change in M&A assumptions with respect to MA revenue guidance; CAPE Analytics was already included [58][59] Question: What were the key assumptions that were made in terms of M&A volume? - Adjusted M&A growth expectations down to 15% from 50% due to trade policy uncertainty [65] Question: How sensitive are Research and Insights and Data and Information to current macro trends? - Research and Insights growth is mainly from CreditView; Data and Information faced slower growth due to government attrition [68][71] Question: Can you explain the guidance for a decrease in issuance versus flat to increased revenue growth for 2025? - Annual pricing initiatives and a positive mix shift are expected to support revenue despite decreased issuance [74][75] Question: Can you elaborate on the costs and efficiency program? - The efficiency program is generating gains, with expectations for MA margins to ramp into the mid-30s range by Q4 [80][81] Question: How do Fed rate cuts impact your issuance outlook? - Rate cuts present mixed effects; decelerating economic growth could negatively impact issuance despite lower rates [87] Question: What is the revenue model for the partnership with MSCI? - The revenue model has not been disclosed, but there is significant demand for rigorous third-party credit assessments in the private credit market [121][122] Question: What is the outlook for first-time mandates? - First-time mandates are expected to continue growing, particularly in the private credit market [128][129] Question: Are tariffs driving demand for KYC solutions? - Tariffs may drive demand for KYC and supply chain risk solutions, with a new corporate platform launched to address these needs [132]

Moody's (MCO) reported first-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $3.83 per share, which outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.56. The bottom line grew 14% from the year-ago quarter figure.Shares of MCO lost 1% in pre-market trading as it lowered the 2025 guidance on “market volatility.” Robust global bond issuance volumes and steady demand for analytics supported Moody’s results. The company’s liquidity position was strong during the quarter. However, an increase in operating expenses posed a headwind.A ...