Imperial Brands (OTCQX: IMBBY ) (OTCQX: IMBBF ) is one of the oldest tobacco companies in the world, based in the United Kingdom and with a diverse portfolio of brands not only cigarettes but also new products. Among theseI am an individual investor with over 10 years of trading. I have been developing as a stock analyst for the last five years. I am inclined to search for Value companies, mainly linked to the production of commodities. I mainly focus on companies that show sustained free cash flows over ti ...

Core Insights - Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) is experiencing significant growth in smoke-free products, which are becoming a crucial part of its long-term transformation strategy, potentially offsetting declines in traditional cigarette sales [1][3][4] Smoke-Free Product Performance - Smoke-free products, including IQOS, ZYN, and VEEV, saw a shipment volume increase of 11.8%, resulting in a 15.2% rise in net revenues and a 23.3% increase in gross profit year over year [1][8] - Smoke-free products now account for 41% of total revenues and 42% of gross profit, indicating a strong shift in the company's revenue structure [1][3] - Management anticipates smoke-free volumes to grow by 12-14% for the full year, while cigarette volumes are expected to decline by approximately 2% [2] Cigarette Sales Overview - Cigarette shipments decreased by 1.5% to 155.2 billion units, primarily due to weaknesses in markets like Turkey and Indonesia [2][8] - Despite the decline in shipment volumes, combustibles still generated $6 billion in quarterly revenues, reflecting a 2.1% year-over-year increase [2][8] Competitive Landscape - Altria Group, Inc. (MO) is focusing on its on! nicotine pouch brand, which saw a 26.5% increase in shipments to 52.1 million cans, capturing an 8.7% retail share in the U.S. oral tobacco market [5] - Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB) reported a nearly eightfold increase in Modern Oral sales to $30.1 million, raising its revenue target for 2025 to $100-$110 million [6] Financial Metrics - Philip Morris shares have increased by 6.1% over the past month, compared to an industry growth of 11.3% [7] - The company is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 20.7X, higher than the industry average of 15.69X [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects year-over-year earnings growth of 14.2% for 2025 and 11.9% for 2026 [10]

Key Takeaways Altria's smokeable OCI margins rose 2.9 points in Q2 2025 to 64.5%, with a 3.5-point gain in the first half.Gains were driven by 10% net price hikes, lower settlement charges and reduced operating costs.Despite a 10.2% shipment drop in Q2, Altria boosted profitability through pricing and cost savings.Altria Group, Inc.’s ((MO) second-quarter 2025 results showed resilience in its smokeable products segment, where adjusted operating companies income (“OCI”) margins expanded 2.9 percentage points ...

Altria (NYSE: MO ) owns Philip Morris USA, the maker of Marlboro® cigarettes and John Middleton, manufacturer of Black & Mild® cigars. Their smoke-free portfolio includes ownership of U.S. Smokeless Tobacco Company, the maker of Copenhagen® and Skoal®, Helix Innovations, the maker of on!® oral nicotine pouches andI am an equities analyst based in South Africa, with focused coverage on the South African equity market. I have ten years experience working as an analyst at three prominent South African fund man ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **US consumer sector**, particularly consumer stocks within the S&P 500, which have shown resilience despite economic challenges such as inflation and tight monetary policy [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Consumer Resilience**: US consumers continue to spend due to a tight labor market, which has remained strong since COVID, despite inflation and waning confidence [1][13]. 2. **Q2 Earnings Performance**: Q2 earnings reports indicate better-than-expected demand and pricing power, with a notable theme of broadening revenue beats. However, guidance remains conservative due to tariff risks [2][25]. 3. **Income Disparity Impact**: The US has a high share of low-income workers, which has made low-income consumers more vulnerable. This has led to an underweight position in Consumer Staples, which are more affected by inflation [3][52]. 4. **Long-term Consumption Trends**: Healthcare spending has increased significantly and is expected to continue growing. The shift from goods to services is influenced by various factors, including globalization and economic conditions [4][44]. 5. **Cyclical vs. Defensive Sectors**: An overweight position on cyclical sectors has been maintained, but potential mass layoffs and recession risks could shift this stance towards a more defensive orientation [5]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Consumer Behavior**: There is a noticeable trend of consumers trading down to lower-priced items, particularly among lower-income households, while luxury spending shows signs of improvement [33][90]. 2. **Tariff Effects**: Companies are beginning to feel the impact of tariffs, with expectations that the full effects will be felt in the second half of the year [34][90]. 3. **Spending Expectations**: Big-ticket spending expectations have decreased year-over-year in several categories, indicating potential caution among consumers [94]. 4. **Credit and Savings Health**: Despite rising credit card delinquencies, overall household balance sheets remain healthy, with liquid assets elevated relative to liabilities [56][60]. 5. **Market Dynamics**: Consumer stocks are highly idiosyncratic, influenced more by brand equity and management than by macroeconomic factors [20]. Conclusion The US consumer sector is navigating a complex landscape characterized by resilience amid inflationary pressures, shifting consumer behaviors, and varying impacts across income levels. The insights from Q2 earnings and ongoing trends suggest a cautious but potentially optimistic outlook for certain segments of consumer stocks, particularly those that can adapt to changing consumer preferences and economic conditions.

Core Insights - Stoker's has launched a new 1.2-ounce can of its Fine Cut Wintergreen, expanding its moist smokeless tobacco (MST) portfolio and catering to both existing fans and new consumers [1][2][3] Product Launch Details - The Fine Cut Wintergreen was previously available only in 12-ounce tubs and is now offered in a compact can format, enhancing convenience and freshness for consumers [2][4] - The new can format is expected to drive trial purchases and meet consumer demand, with stores carrying both cans and tubs seeing MST sales increase by three to five times compared to those that do not [3] Retail and Distribution Strategy - The Fine Cut Wintergreen can will be available in select retail stores and will continue to roll out nationwide throughout 2025, targeting both independent and chain retailers [4] - The launch aims to fill a gap in the MST lineup and provide outstanding value and performance at retail [3] Company Background - Stoker's has a heritage dating back to 1940 and holds the No. 2 position in the chewing tobacco category, being one of the fastest-growing brands in the moist snuff segment [5] - The brand is manufactured and distributed by Turning Point Brands (NYSE: TPB), which is known for its branded consumer products [5]

Philip Morris International (NYSE: PM ), even though today an American company with operational headquarters in Switzerland, was originally founded in 1847 in London. The company began as a tobacco shop and grew into theAlways on the hunt for undervalued, promising stocks with a focus on risk and reward. Limited risks and decent to high upside by knowing what one's owning. I strongly believe that the best investment ideas are often the simplest. If contrarian, the better.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no st ...

Industry Overview - The tobacco industry is undergoing significant transformation due to declining cigarette volumes, rising health awareness, and evolving regulatory frameworks [2] - Companies are competing not only on brand strength but also on their ability to innovate with alternatives like heated tobacco and nicotine pouches [2] Altria Group, Inc. (MO) - Altria's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose 8.3% year over year to $1.44 in Q2 2025, supported by higher pricing, cost efficiencies, and share repurchases [5] - Revenues net of excise taxes were $5.29 billion, indicating portfolio stability [5] - Management raised the lower end of its 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.35-$5.45, reflecting a growth rate of 3% to 5% [5] - Shipments of the on! nicotine pouch brand increased by 26.5% to 52.1 million cans, capturing an 8.7% retail share of the U.S. oral tobacco market [6] - The smokeable products segment showed resilience with adjusted operating income rising 4.2% and margins expanding 290 basis points to 64.5% [7] - Marlboro maintained a 59.5% share in the premium category, highlighting brand strength [7] Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) - Philip Morris' smoke-free products accounted for 41% of total net revenues in Q2 2025, growing 15.2% year over year [10] - The traditional cigarette business remains resilient, with combustible net revenues growing 2.1% in Q2, driven by price increases [11] - Management lifted its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $7.43-$7.56, indicating 13-15% growth [13] - The company achieved over $500 million in gross cost savings in H1 2025, aiming for $2 billion in efficiencies by 2026 [12] - Cigarette shipment volumes declined 1.5% year over year to 155.2 billion units in Q2, with a forecasted 2% decrease for the full year [14] Comparative Analysis - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Altria's 2025 EPS is $5.39, implying a year-over-year increase of 5.3% [15] - Philip Morris' consensus estimate remains at $7.50, indicating growth of 14.2% for 2025 [15] - Altria stock advanced 15.2% in the past month, outperforming Philip Morris' 8.9% gain [16] - Altria trades at a forward P/E multiple of 12.29, while Philip Morris carries a premium multiple of 21.25 [16] Investment Outlook - Philip Morris is viewed as the stronger long-term investment due to its global scale and leadership in smoke-free innovation [19] - Altria remains attractive for income-oriented investors but is seen as less favorable for sustained growth compared to Philip Morris [19]

Group 1: Market Trends and Indicators - Investors face challenges in deciding when to sell winning stocks, balancing profit-taking with the risk of missing out on further gains [1] - Technical analysis, including indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), can help predict short-term price movements that fundamental metrics may not capture [2][3] - The RSI measures trend strength over a 14-day period, with thresholds indicating overbought (70) and oversold (30) conditions, aiding traders in identifying potential pullbacks [5][4] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - Reddit Inc. (RDDT) has seen significant stock price growth, reaching $224 from an initial $50, driven by strong earnings and investor enthusiasm, with Q2 2025 earnings at $0.45 per share and revenue of nearly $500 million, a 78% year-over-year increase [8][9] - Altria Group (MO) has experienced a nearly 30% year-to-date increase, attributed to economic uncertainty, but recent RSI readings indicate overbought conditions, suggesting a potential pullback [12][14] - Generac Holdings Inc. (GNRC) reported strong earnings in Q2 2025, but current momentum is waning as the RSI indicates overbought conditions and investors appear to be cashing in gains [16][17][18]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Global Tobacco and Vapour Products - **Focus**: Monthly vapour volume export tracker using data from China Customs to monitor the vapour category's progress Core Insights and Arguments - **Growth Projections**: The UBS Tobacco Transformation Model estimates vapour retail sales growth of approximately +20% in 2024, reaching $46 billion, with equivalised volumes expected to grow by about +25%, constituting around 8% of total nicotine sales [1][2] - **Export Trends**: - Global vapour exports fell by -15.2% in July 2025 compared to -11.7% in June 2025, indicating a deceleration in exports to the US and a significant decline in exports to Asia, partially offset by growth in the UK [2] - US vapour exports decreased by -19.7% in July 2025, with a notable sequential improvement in July's export volumes being 2.7 times that of June [3] - Europe (excluding the UK) saw a decline of -12.9% in vapour exports in July 2025, while the UK experienced a growth of +3.8% [4] - Asia's vapour exports dropped by -30.3% in July 2025, reflecting slower adoption rates and a shift in production [5] Additional Important Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The decline in vapour exports is attributed to various factors, including increased customs inspections in the US, which may lead manufacturers to shift from air freight to sea freight [3] - **Illicit Market Impact**: Illicit disposable vapes account for nearly 20% of US nicotine volumes, and a reduction in this segment could benefit tobacco companies, especially given the rapid growth of disposable vapes in recent years [3] - **Regional Performance**: - Exports to Germany, France, and Spain showed growth despite the overall decline in Europe ex-UK [4] - The UK’s growth in exports could indicate inventory build-up, with export volumes increasing by +54.6% [4] Risks and Valuation Considerations - **Risks**: Potential risks to price targets include changes in consumer preferences, government regulations, macroeconomic trends, competitive intensity, and commodity cost fluctuations [37] - **Valuation Method**: A multiples-based approach is utilized for setting target prices, considering factors such as volume change, organic sales growth, and tobacco transformation [38] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the global tobacco and vapour products industry, along with significant trends and risks.