文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 核心观点 本篇报告希望从定量的角度分析"供改"的压力。希望构建一个定量的指标，可以动态更新，可以解释 2015 年年末的供给侧改革（时点选择、行业选择），可以观察更多的行业情况。我们借助上市公司财报数据， 构建盈利压力指数，大体可以满足上述要求。从盈利压力指数来看， 2024 年三季报显示压力在上升，但尚 未触及 2015 年的高点。行业层面，电源设备已具备 2015 年供改行业的特征，煤化工、结构材料、普钢尚 不具备，但已经较为接近。 报告摘要 一、需要什么样的指标以评估供改压力？ 需要满足两个要求。 第一，2015年，该指标是局部最高点 ，最理想情况下是2000年以来的最高点，次理想 情况下是2011年以来的最高点（参照外管局观点，"经常账户顺差与GDP之比在2011年之后处于合理均衡区 间"，即2011年之后经济对外需的依赖大幅下降）。 第二，在2015年的行业视角来看 ，煤炭、钢铁、有 色、石化等之所以纳入供给侧改革，从纵向比较来看，2015年属于自身压力较大的年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent trend of public fund managers increasing their positions in companies with strong profit growth, particularly in the livestock and energy sectors, as they adjust their portfolios following the disclosure of 2024 annual reports [1][4]. Group 1: Livestock Sector Performance - Companies in the livestock sector, such as Muyuan Foods, have shown significant performance improvements, attracting attention from fund managers. Muyuan Foods reported a revenue of 137.947 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.43%, and a net profit of 17.881 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [4][5]. - Fund managers have notably increased their holdings in Muyuan Foods, with notable increases from various ETFs managed by Huatai-PineBridge and other funds [4][5]. - The animal nutrition additive producer, Andisu, also saw a revenue of 15.534 billion yuan, up 17.83%, and a net profit of 1.204 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 2208.66% [4][5]. Group 2: High Dividend Stocks - High dividend-paying industry leaders, such as Fuyao Glass, Muyuan Foods, and Baofeng Energy, are favored by institutional investors, with expected cash dividends exceeding 2 billion yuan [7]. - For instance, the waterproofing company Oriental Yuhong saw significant increases in holdings from national social security funds and various mutual funds, indicating strong institutional interest [7]. Group 3: Chemical and Energy Sector Insights - Companies in the chemical and energy sectors, including Chuanjin Nuo and Shanghai Petrochemical, have also reported strong performance, attracting fund manager interest [8][9]. - Fund managers believe that industries facing overcapacity, such as photovoltaics and chemicals, may benefit from policy support aimed at supply-side reforms, potentially leading to a market turning point [9]. - Baofeng Energy, a leader in the coal chemical industry, has seen new major shareholders, indicating growing institutional confidence in the sector [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the organic silicon industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The peak production period for organic silicon has passed, and companies are collaborating to reduce output, leading to a potential price recovery from the bottom [1]. - Domestic organic silicon DMC capacity increased from 1.515 million tons/year in 2019 to 3.44 million tons/year by 2024, with limited new capacity expected in the future [1]. - As of March 19, 2025, the average market price for organic silicon was 14,500 CNY/ton, reflecting an 11.5% increase since the beginning of the year, although profit margins remain negative [1]. - The demand for organic silicon is steadily growing, with a CAGR of approximately 10.7% from 2020 to 2024, driven primarily by the construction and electronics sectors [3]. - The report suggests that the limited new supply and increasing demand will likely stabilize and improve the pricing and profitability of organic silicon products [1][3]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Industry Overview - The organic silicon industry is experiencing a supply reduction due to increased maintenance and repairs among producers, with 182,000 tons of capacity under maintenance as of February 19, 2025 [2]. - The inventory levels of organic silicon DMC are stable, with a slight increase since September 2024, but still within the median range of the past three years [2]. Section 2: Demand and Applications - The apparent consumption of organic silicon DMC in China rose from 1.21 million tons in 2020 to 1.82 million tons in 2024, with significant growth in exports at a CAGR of 22.5% during the same period [3]. - Key application areas for organic silicon include construction and electronics, which account for 25% and 23% of consumption, respectively [3]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in high-end construction sealants and materials for photovoltaic and electric vehicle sectors, driven by policy support and technological advancements [3]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the organic silicon production sector such as Hoshine Silicon Industry, Xingfa Group, and New安股份, as well as application companies like Ruifeng New Materials and Silica宝科技 [3].

公司研究 2025.03.15 宝丰能源（ 600989） 公司点评报告 24Q4 归母净利环比增 46%，内蒙项目逐步达效 方 正 证 券 研 究 所 证 券 研 究 报 告 分析师 | 张汪强 | 登记编号：S1220524120002 | | --- | --- | | 韩翀宇 | 登记编号：S1220524110003 | 强烈推荐 ( 首 次 ) | 公 司 信 | 息 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 行业 | | 煤化工 | | 最新收盘价(人民币/元) | | 17.5 | | 总市值(亿)(元) | | 1,283.34 | | 52 周最高/最低价(元) | | 17.84/14.20 | 历史表现 -12% -6% 0% 6% 12% 18% 24/3/15 24/6/14 24/9/13 24/12/13 宝丰能源 沪深300 数据来源：wind 方正证券研究所 相关研究 事件：宝丰能源发布 2024 年报，报告期内公司实现营业总收入 329.83 亿 元，同比+13.21%；实现归母净利润 63.38 亿元，同比+12.16%。其中，四 季度公司实现营业总收入 87 ...