Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened down 212.77 points, a decline of 0.81%, at 25,987.49 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 57.31 points, down 0.97%, at 5,845.38 points, and the National Enterprises Index decreased by 95.54 points, a drop of 1.02%, at 9,232.62 points [1] - The Hong Kong stock consumer sector, which has been active recently, opened lower and continued to fluctuate, with the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) dropping to around 1%, opening a low-position layout channel [1] - Policies to expand service consumption are set to be introduced, which are expected to further boost domestic demand [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index, packaging leading internet e-commerce companies and new consumption sectors, covering various fields of Hong Kong consumption [2] - The ETF includes leading new consumption companies such as Pop Mart, Lao Pu Gold, and Miniso, as well as internet e-commerce giants like Tencent, Kuaishou, Alibaba, and Xiaomi, highlighting its technology and consumption attributes [2]

Group 1: Background and Logic of Hong Kong Stock Market Recovery - The Hong Kong stock market has shown a "healthy" moderate upward trend since the impact of "reciprocal tariffs" in 2025, but its relative performance compared to the A-share market has weakened significantly due to three main reasons: (1) The Hong Kong Monetary Authority's continuous tightening of the monetary environment, with the 3-month HIBOR rising from 1.62% at the beginning of August 2025 to 3.30% by the end of the month, an increase of approximately 168 basis points, and the 1-month HIBOR rising from 0.99% to 3.30%, an increase of about 230 basis points, which directly suppresses the financing costs of some leveraged funds; (2) The failure of the July interest rate cut expectations overseas, with the Federal Reserve's easing expectations postponed to September, and the resilience of the overall non-farm employment data in June, leading to a withdrawal of rate cut trades and an increase in U.S. Treasury yields, delaying the pace of global liquidity improvement; (3) The intensified competition among internet e-commerce platforms represented by Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com has suppressed profit expectations, while the A-share market has rapidly spread the profitability effects driven by AI and other industrial chains, further amplifying the performance gap between the Hong Kong and A-share markets [1][2][3] Group 2: Opportunities for Relative Recovery of Hong Kong Stocks - The current A-share market is gradually entering a valuation digestion phase, highlighting the relative advantages of the Hong Kong stock market: (1) From a liquidity perspective, Powell's dovish signals at the Jackson Hole meeting indicate that monetary policy may enter a loosening cycle, coupled with a significant downward revision of non-farm employment data (a reduction of 910,000 jobs for the year ending March 2025), reinforcing market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. In this context, global investors may reassess the relative attractiveness of various markets, and if some funds flow into the Hong Kong stock market, it could provide support for its valuation [2]; (2) From the perspective of industrial investment and profitability effects, funds are seeking "outlets" for AI hardware and applications, and the Hong Kong internet sector is in a potentially beneficial position. Alibaba continues to increase its self-research investment in AI chips, strengthening its voice in the core computing power segment [3] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - As the A-share market enters a valuation digestion phase, the warming expectations for Federal Reserve easing provide marginal support for Hong Kong stock valuations. The relative advantages of quality assets in the Hong Kong stock market are expected to gradually emerge. The Hong Kong internet sector has two major highlights: firstly, the self-research of AI chips and the expansion of cloud business continuously strengthen performance certainty; secondly, current valuations are in a recovery range, with potential to attract incremental funds. On this basis, the overall valuation of the Hong Kong stock market is extremely low, asset quality is excellent, and the intensity of corporate dividends and buybacks is increasing. Coupled with the gradually loosening external liquidity environment, proactive foreign capital is expected to start flowing in. It is recommended to focus on the Hong Kong internet, consumption, pharmaceuticals, and resilient non-bank financial sectors during this phase to capture the dual benefits of profit elasticity and valuation recovery [4]

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The year-on-year growth rate of PPI rebounded to -2.9% in August, up from -3.6% in the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in industrial price pressures [4][8] - CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, which is lower than the expected -0.2%, suggesting ongoing deflationary pressures in consumer prices [4][5] - The core CPI has remained above seasonal levels for five consecutive months, indicating a potential stabilization in consumer demand [7][9] Group 2: Real Estate Industry Overview - The A-share real estate sector reported a revenue of 712.8 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 11.6%, although the decline rate has narrowed compared to the previous year [28] - Key real estate companies have shown improved land acquisition efforts, with a total land purchase amount of 399.9 billion yuan, representing 72% of their total for 2024 [29] - The overall policy environment remains supportive, with measures aimed at stabilizing the market and promoting housing demand, leading to a gradual recovery in transactions in some first- and second-tier cities [30][31] Group 3: Financial Sector Developments - The new regulations on fund sales are expected to lower subscription fees and standardize service fees, which may alter investor preferences towards more liquid financial products [22][23] - The demand for high liquidity financial products is anticipated to increase, particularly for those with minimal holding periods, as investors seek better returns amid changing fee structures [24] - The shift towards ETF trading and long-term holding of bonds is likely as investors adapt to the new redemption fee structures [25] Group 4: Company-Specific Updates - The company "Saiwei Times" announced a stock incentive plan aimed at enhancing its long-term incentive mechanisms, with a target net profit growth of 70%/155%/215% from 2025 to 2027 [33][34] - The company is leveraging digital transformation to enhance its product development, brand management, and supply chain efficiency, which is expected to strengthen its competitive advantage [35]

商贸零售/互联网电商 赛维时代（301381.SZ） 公司发布股权激励计划，关注后续经营趋势改善 2025 年 09 月 10 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/9/9 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 24.58 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 32.80/16.49 | | 总市值(亿元) | 99.17 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 48.01 | | 总股本(亿股) | 4.03 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 1.95 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 198.41 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 赛维时代 沪深300 相关研究报告 《库存因素短期拖累利润，服饰品类 增长维持靓丽—公司信息更新报告》 -2025.4.29 | 黄泽鹏（分析师） | 吕明（分析师） | 姚慕宇（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | huangzepeng@kysec.cn | lvming@kysec.cn | yaomuyu@kysec.cn | | 证书编号 ...

Group 1 - The internet e-commerce sector rose by 2.15% on September 5, with 壹网壹创 leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3812.51, up 1.24%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12590.56, up 3.89% [1] - Key stocks in the internet e-commerce sector showed significant price increases, with 壹网壹创 rising by 7.90% to a closing price of 30.33 [1] Group 2 - The internet e-commerce sector experienced a net outflow of 49.52 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 51.45 million yuan [2] - The trading volume for key stocks included 国联股份 with a closing price of 28.70, up 5.05%, and a trading volume of 237,100 shares [2] - The stock 跨境通 had a closing price of 5.50, with a trading volume of 1,495,500 shares and a net inflow of 8.03 billion yuan [2][3] Group 3 - 主力资金流向 indicated that 国联股份 had a net inflow of 60.73 million yuan, while 壹网壹创 had a net outflow of 23.86 million yuan [3] - 散户资金流入 for 三态股份 was 1.01 million yuan, while the net outflow for ST易购 was 3.11 million yuan [3] - The overall market sentiment showed mixed results, with some stocks experiencing significant retail interest despite institutional outflows [3]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market opened higher on September 5, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.31% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 0.42%, driven by strong performance in the technology and new energy sectors [1] - The latest "Automobile Consumption Index" released by the China Automobile Dealers Association indicates that the index for August 2025 is 83.3, higher than the previous month, with expectations for September automobile sales to exceed those of August [1] - September marks the peak season for automobile consumption, driven by wedding and school seasons, as well as increased demand for self-driving trips during the National Day holiday [1] Group 2 - Huachuang Securities reports that the domestic consumption market is entering a new phase characterized by slowing product growth and ongoing service prosperity, with trends focusing on quality-price ratio, emotional value, and overseas expansion, alongside AI applications driving product transformation and efficiency [1] - The current investment themes in the service industry include: 1) Restructuring of offline formats, with supply chain maturity becoming key to success in chain consumption [1] 2) Implementation of AI applications across various scenarios [1] 3) High demand for experiential consumption, particularly in sectors like cultural tourism and sports [1] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Consumption ETF (513230) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Theme Index, encompassing leading companies in internet e-commerce and new consumption, including Pop Mart, Lao Pu Gold, and Miniso, as well as tech giants like Tencent, Kuaishou, Alibaba, and Xiaomi, highlighting a strong tech-consumption attribute [2]

Market Overview - On September 4, the internet e-commerce sector declined by 0.17% compared to the previous trading day, with Ruoyuchen leading the decline [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3765.88, down 1.25%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12118.7, down 2.83% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers included: - Xinxunda (300518) with a closing price of 16.40, up 12.71% and a trading volume of 292,300 shares, totaling 454 million yuan [1] - Lirenlizhuang (605136) closed at 10.07, up 5.22% with a trading volume of 317,600 shares, totaling 316 million yuan [1] - Major decliners included: - Ruoyuchen (003010) closed at 58.70, down 4.49% with a trading volume of 75,800 shares, totaling 446 million yuan [2] - Shitou Co. (600539) closed at 10.44, down 3.51% with a trading volume of 114,800 shares, totaling 122 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The internet e-commerce sector experienced a net outflow of 103 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 201 million yuan [2][3] - Specific stock capital flows showed: - Xinxunda had a net outflow of 46.21 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Kuaijingtong (002640) had a net inflow of 32.87 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

消息面上，据报道，9月2日，浙江绍兴召开新闻发布会，介绍该市即将出台的《2025年绍兴市提振消费 政策》相关情况，围绕"文商旅融合"促消费、"新场景拓展"促消费、"消费券发放"促消费3个方面出台 15项政策。 9月4日，截至早盘收盘，恒生指数跌1.21%，恒生科技指数跌1.66%，国企指数跌1.41%，国企指数、恒 生科技指数盘中均创下月内低点。盘面上，科技股多数由涨转跌，大金融股（银行、保险、券商）、中 字头股等亦走低，由于黄金价格因获利了结而走弱，连续上涨的黄金股呈现高开低走行情。新消费板块 午盘持续震荡，热门ETF中，港股消费ETF（513230）现跌超1%。 华泰证券研报表示，在新需求、新场景、新模式的共同催化下，消费领域呈现出鲜明的结构性机遇：需 求端加速向情感化、个性化升级，潮玩、美妆等高情绪价值品类增长显著；场景端服务+产品逐渐融 合，推动"人货场"关系持续重构，拓宽消费边界；国货品牌凭借商业模式创新与渠道效率构建强大用户 生态，实现加速崛起。 港股消费ETF（513230）跟踪中证港股通消费主题指数，一键打包互联网电商龙头+新消费，成分股近 乎囊括港股消费的各个领域，包括泡泡玛特、老铺黄金、名 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a quick decline on September 4, with the new consumption sector showing continuous fluctuations after opening. The Hong Kong Consumption ETF (513230) saw a slight decrease, while stocks like Bilibili, Baisheng China, Li Auto, Giant Bio, and Bosideng showed notable gains [1] - The Chinese潮玩 (trendy toy) economy is expanding across all age groups, with rapid growth and structural differentiation in the market. The doll category, driven by strong IP resonance and high collectible value, is expected to become a core growth driver for the toy segment. Demand is shifting from Generation Z and female groups to all age segments, while supply is innovating through blind box play and live card unboxing [1] - The medical beauty industry is entering a new phase, with domestic beauty and skincare brands expected to accelerate their breakout. Domestic brands are quickly gaining traction, and the importance of content e-commerce channels is increasing. New raw material registrations are accelerating, allowing brands to strengthen consumer recognition through scientific narratives and technological endorsements [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities points out that under the joint catalysis of new demands, new scenarios, and new models, the consumption sector is presenting distinct structural opportunities. The demand side is rapidly upgrading towards emotional and personalized experiences, with significant growth in high emotional value categories such as trendy toys and beauty products [1] - The Hong Kong Consumption ETF (513230) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Theme Index, packaging leading internet e-commerce companies and new consumption sectors. Its constituent stocks encompass nearly all areas of Hong Kong consumption, including new consumption leaders like Pop Mart, Laopuyuan Gold, and Miniso, as well as internet e-commerce giants like Tencent, Kuaishou, Alibaba, and Xiaomi, highlighting a strong technology and consumption attribute [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company's smart revenue increased by 26% year-on-year to 33.398 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations by 4.86%. Adjusted EBITA margin was 8.8%, with adjusted EBITA profit of 2.954 billion yuan, also above expectations by 14.18%. Quarterly capital expenditure was 38.629 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 32.52% [1] - The cloud business is driven by the explosion of AI demand, with AI-related revenue in Alibaba Cloud achieving triple-digit growth over the past eight quarters. As AI penetration deepens across various industries, the demand for cloud services as foundational infrastructure is expected to continue to grow rapidly [1] - The Chinese e-commerce group is in a high investment phase, but the overall investment pace is slowing, leading to improved certainty. E-commerce revenue reached 118.577 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9%, driven mainly by an increase in monetization rates [1][2] Summary by Sections Cloud Business - The cloud business's short-term profit margins are influenced by both upward and downward drivers. In the long term, the upward drivers are expected to outweigh the downward ones, leading to a significant increase in profit margins [1][8] - The company anticipates that the growth rate of its intelligent cloud business will further improve in the next two quarters [1] E-commerce Business - Customer management revenue reached 89.252 billion yuan, growing by 10% year-on-year, primarily driven by an increase in monetization rates. The company is focusing on market share, with GMV growth matching retail sales growth [1] - Instant retail revenue reached 14.784 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%. The company has made strategic moves in instant retail, including significant subsidies and the integration of its platforms [2][3] Financial Projections - The company adjusted its profit forecasts due to significant investments in instant retail, projecting revenues of 1,070.734 billion yuan, 1,172.096 billion yuan, and 1,285.874 billion yuan for FY2026-2028, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.5%, 9.5%, and 9.7% respectively [10] - The adjusted net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is projected to be 147.205 billion yuan, 173.274 billion yuan, and 223.998 billion yuan for FY2026-2028, with year-on-year growth rates of -6.8%, 17.7%, and 29.3% respectively [10]