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2025年4月美国非农数据点评:非农暂时稳定,缓和市场衰退担忧
EBSCN· 2025-05-03 12:23
2025 年 5 月 3 日 非农暂时稳定,缓和市场衰退担忧 ——2025 年 4 月美国非农数据点评 要点 事件: 2025 年 5 月 2 日,美国劳工部公布 2025 年 4 月非农数据:新增非农就业 17.7 万人,预期 13.0 万人,前值由 22.8 万人修正至 18.5 万人;4 月失业率 4.2%, 预期 4.2%,前值 4.2%;平均时薪同比升 3.8%,预期升 3.9%,前值升 3.8%。 核心观点: 2025 年 4 月美国新增就业回落,但高于市场预期。从结构看,关税扰动下零售 业、休闲酒店业就业转弱,显示美国经济承压,但 4 月运输和仓储行业新增就业 大幅回升,部分对冲了关税对就业数据的影响,或因美国厂商在对等关税生效前 赶工而大量招聘人员,持续性存疑。结合本次非农数据的结构与被下修的前值, 美国就业市场压力依然存在。 尽管美国经济承压,但高于预期的非农数据减弱了市场对美国经济衰退的担忧, 美联储或保持更多耐心。从就业数据看,尽管后续就业数据或有转弱风险,但就 4 月数据本身而言,失业率未有抬升,以及新增就业 17.7 万人的读数并不差, 短期内美联储或继续保持观望,尚在等待经济转弱的 ...
火热“中国游”呈现新趋势 时尚与传统交相辉映成磁吸外国游客密码
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-05-03 07:01
Group 1 - The attractiveness of China as a popular travel destination is continuously increasing, driven by various favorable policies [1][3] - The trend of "China Shopping" is emerging, with foreign tourists increasingly coming to China for shopping, especially during peak travel periods like the "May Day" holiday [3][6] - Recent policy changes, such as lowering the threshold for tax refunds from 500 yuan to 200 yuan and increasing cash refund limits from 10,000 yuan to 20,000 yuan, have facilitated foreign tourists' shopping experiences [3][6] Group 2 - There is significant growth potential in inbound consumption, supported by the rising interest in Chinese traditional culture and flexible visa policies [4][6] - The integration of diverse shopping options and improved tax refund services is enhancing China's appeal as a tourism consumption destination, promoting cultural and economic exchanges [6][10] - The implementation of visa-free policies for foreign tourist groups arriving by cruise ships is expected to boost the number of overseas travel groups significantly [15] Group 3 - The development and application of tourism technology in China are unlocking new experiences for tourists, enhancing service quality and interaction [11][10] - The combination of cruise tourism with cultural and scenic experiences is creating new opportunities for foreign tourists to engage with China [15]
浙江“胖都来”商场开业,胖东来回应:已向对方邮寄律师函!律师:涉嫌构成商标侵权及不正当竞争
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-05-02 16:06
每经编辑 张锦河 商场取名"胖都来"涉嫌构成商标侵权及不正当竞争。胖东来具有较高的市场知名度,"胖都来"与"胖东来"仅一字之差,整体读音和字形相似,若在相同或 类似服务上使用高度近似的名称,相关公众极易产生混淆,误认为两者存在特定联系。我国商标法明确规定,未经商标注册人的许可,在同一种商品上使 用与其注册商标近似的商标,或者在类似商品上使用与其注册商标相同或者近似的商标,容易导致混淆的,属于侵犯注册商标专用权。 商业模式可以"借鉴"吗? 商业模式本身通常不受知识产权法保护,企业可自由学习其管理方法、经营理念等,但诚实信用原则是一切市场活动参与者应遵循的基本准则。一方面, 它鼓励和支持人们通过诚实劳动积累社会财富和创造社会价值,并保护在此基础上形成的财产性权益,以及基于合法、正当的目的支配该财产性权益的自 据北京青年报,5月1日,浙江一家名为"胖都来"的线下购物商场开业。该商场名称引发争议,不少网友质疑这是在碰瓷"胖东来"。该公司解释称,"胖"寓 意丰盈、富足、美好,"都(dū)"取自集团董事长的姓氏,名字只是符号,品质才是关键。 图片来源:胖都来社交媒体账号 5月1日,有网友发布的一则截图显示,胖东来账号留言 ...
深观察丨关税政策满月 美国受“内伤”
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-05-02 15:31
荒唐的"对等关税"风暴开启即将满一个月。 一个月来,这场风暴正以对各领域的负面影响和其带来的悲观判断"重塑"美国经济,并加剧美国政界分 歧。 关税政策让美国受"内伤" 当地时间4月30日,美国参议院以50:49的票数,未能通过一项阻止对全球实施所谓"对等关税"的投票。 但其过程耐人寻味。 这项"叫停"总统关税政策的表决,票数一度为49票赞成、49票反对,不仅民主党人集体支持,且有3名 共和党人投出了赞成票。取消关税的表决原本极有可能通过,但因2名议员缺席而导致投票失败。 最后50:49的结果,是动用了参议院议长、美国副总统万斯,他赶到国会大厦投出了一票。而投票结 果,无疑展现了参议院内对特朗普政府关税政策的巨大分歧。 对于特朗普政府的关税政策,参议院民主党领袖查尔斯·舒默警告,凄惨的经济数据将"惊醒"共和党 人。 各机构对5月美国多领域的预测数据全面下滑。 美国最大集装箱接收港——洛杉矶港的数据显示,预计5月4日至10日的一周,到港集装箱数量同比下降 35.91%。 最新数据显示,今年第一季度美国国内生产总值(GDP)环比按年率计算下降0.3%,为三年来首次萎缩; 而美国GDP"重中之重"的消费支出,一季度仅 ...
经济学家:美国制造业就业备受压力
news flash· 2025-05-02 14:35
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that while overall employment in the U.S. remains stable, the manufacturing sector is under significant pressure [1] - The manufacturing diffusion index has dropped to 42, indicating a return to recessionary conditions in the sector [1] - In April, there was a substantial increase in working hours in the retail and transportation sectors as consumers rushed to make purchases before price adjustments [1]
香港3月零售业总销货价值临时估计为301亿港元 同比下跌3.5%
智通财经网· 2025-05-02 09:10
2025年第一季与2024年第四季比较,经季节性调整的零售业总销货价值的临时估计上升3.8%,而经季 节性调整的零售业总销货数量的临时估计则上升2.2%。 扣除其间价格变动后,2025年三月的零售业总销货数量的临时估计较2024年同月下跌4.8%。2025年一 月与二月合计的零售业总销货数量的修订估计较2024年同期下跌9.9%。与2024年同期比较,2025年首 季的零售业总销货数量的临时估计下跌8.3%。 按零售商主要类别的销货价值的临时估计由高至低分析,2025年三月与2024年三月比较,珠宝首饰、钟 表及名贵礼物的销货价值下跌3.9%。其次为服装(销货价值下跌10.8%);百货公司货品(下跌5.0%);汽车及 汽车零件(下跌46.4%);燃料(下跌3.9%);鞋类、有关制品及其他衣物配件(下跌7.7%);中药(下跌1.0%);书 报、文具及礼品(下跌0.9%);家具及固定装置(下跌17.3%);以及眼镜店(下跌2.7%)。 另一方面,2025年三月与2024年同月比较,其他未分类消费品的销货价值上升0.6%。其次为超级市场 货品(销货价值上升5.2%);药物及化妆品(上升1.2%);食品、酒类饮品及烟 ...
2024年终全球IPO趋势报告:转型洞察
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-02 04:23
Global IPO Market Overview - In 2024, the global IPO market saw a total of 1,215 IPOs raising $121.2 billion, reflecting a decline in both volume and proceeds compared to 2023 [1][9] - The recovery in the IPO market was driven by easing inflation, monetary policy loosening, and increased investor confidence post-US elections [1][9] - The technology, industrial, and consumer sectors dominated the IPO landscape, accounting for approximately 60% of the market share [1][9] Regional Performance - India emerged as the largest player in the global IPO market in 2024, with 327 IPOs raising $19.9 billion, surpassing the US in the number of IPOs [2] - The US maintained its lead in total proceeds, raising $32.8 billion despite fewer IPOs than India [2] - The EMEIA region led in both IPO volume and proceeds, completing 522 IPOs and raising $53.2 billion, marking a 17% and 64% increase year-over-year respectively [3] Sector Insights - The technology sector experienced a 23% decrease in IPO proceeds, yet advancements in AI and automation are expected to drive future growth [3][10] - The industrial sector showed resilience, particularly in India and Southeast Asia, with strong performances in manufacturing and infrastructure [3] - The consumer sector's recovery was bolstered by successful listings in retail and e-commerce, especially in food delivery and digital commerce [3] Future Outlook - The IPO market is projected to remain optimistic in 2025, supported by economic recovery, accommodative monetary policies, and increased investor confidence [4][12] - Companies that demonstrate mature business models and profitability are expected to attract more investor interest [4][12] - The emphasis on ESG factors is likely to influence IPO conditions, with companies adopting sustainable practices to align with investor expectations [12]
“中国游”“中国购”热度攀升 各国游客来华“探店”“拔草”成跨境游新趋势
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-05-02 03:33
Group 1 - The influx of foreign tourists to China is driven by favorable policies, leading to a surge in cross-border tourism and shopping trends [1][3] - The number of inbound tourists during the "May Day" holiday saw a year-on-year increase of 173% in orders for inbound travel [1] - Shanghai has experienced a significant rise in foreign visitors, with Chinese cultural products like flower tea and porcelain becoming popular among tourists [3] Group 2 - Since the introduction of the "immediate refund" service for departure tax in April, many foreigners are traveling to China for purchasing various products, including electronics [5] - During the 137th Canton Fair, convenient financial services and an increase in tax refund stores have encouraged foreign merchants to engage in shopping in China [7] - The daily average of departure tax refund applications in Guangzhou has reached a historical high, increasing by 1.68 times compared to the same period last year [9] Group 3 - Foreign tourists are also participating in local cultural experiences, such as dragon boat racing in Foshan, enhancing their travel experience [11]
家民:拍卖行可以向胖东来学习什么?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-01 18:34
Core Viewpoint - The retail industry is witnessing a shift where service quality is becoming a cornerstone for gaining consumer trust and achieving sustainable development, as exemplified by the brand Pang Donglai's proactive approach to consumer complaints and compensation [2] Group 1: Service Innovation - The auction industry has focused more on finding new auction items and expanding market share, while client-facing service innovation remains lacking [3] - Auction houses should prioritize providing a more personalized and value-added experience for collectors and buyers, such as professional appraisal consultations and in-depth market analysis reports [3] - Learning from Pang Donglai, auction houses should place customer interests first and invest in exceptional service to build trust [3] Group 2: Delivery Process - The delivery process is a critical first contact point between collectors and auction houses, with significant variation in service quality among different auction houses [4] - Some auction houses, like Shanghai Boguzhai and Shanghai Gongmei, demonstrate professionalism and service awareness in their delivery processes, ensuring timely communication and documentation [4] - In contrast, around 80% of auction houses fail to provide any acknowledgment or receipt upon receiving items, leading to uncertainty and concern for collectors [4] Group 3: Online Promotion - Shanghai Gongmei enhances online auction visibility by taking numerous detailed photographs and actively promoting auctions through social media [5] - Shanghai Boguzhai's proactive communication with collectors to prepare for promotions reflects a commitment to maximizing auction exposure and collaboration [5] Group 4: Promotion and Communication - Auction houses often overlook the opportunity for mutual benefit by not leveraging collectors' resources for promoting auction items, which can impact auction outcomes [6] - Timely communication regarding auction schedules allows collectors to utilize their networks effectively, enhancing participation and potential sales [6] Group 5: Catalog Accuracy - Inaccuracies in catalog descriptions are a significant issue, as auction houses fail to verify details with collectors before printing [7] - This lack of diligence can mislead buyers and indicates broader management issues within auction houses [7] Group 6: Future Outlook - The current challenges in the art auction market present an opportunity for auction houses to introspect and enhance service quality [7] - Improving service quality requires a focus on transparent processes, effective communication, and a willingness to accept feedback [7] - Auction houses that prioritize exceptional service and build strong trust foundations will likely thrive in a competitive market, while those that neglect these aspects risk marginalization [7]
来中国“买买买” “五一”入境游订单量同比增长173%
news flash· 2025-05-01 07:41
在各类利好政策的助力下,外国人来华"中国游"和"中国购"正迎来又一波热潮。在离境退税服务的带动 下,我国入境游客流体量持续扩大,"五一"入境游订单量同比增长173%。上海作为入境游热门目的地 之一,在"五一"期间进一步优化离境退税消费环境,让境外旅客享受到更便捷的服务。(央视财经) ...