1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The global economy is starting to weaken as the US economy slides towards stagflation, and the Fed's restart of balance sheet expansion will have a profound impact on major asset classes [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Economic Outlook - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and started buying $40 billion in short - term Treasuries per month, restarting the expansion of its balance sheet [4][5] - The decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the early warning signs before the 2008 financial crisis [4] - The US released a new National Security Strategy, adjusting its economic relations with China and aiming to revitalize its economic autonomy [4] - Consumer K - shaped differentiation in the US is intensifying, with high - income consumers' spending remaining resilient while middle - and low - income families are tightening their belts [4] - The official US employment data may be overestimated by 60,000 per month, and the actual employment market may be in negative growth [4] - The US unemployment rate has risen to 4.4%, and the number of initial jobless claims has reached the highest level since September [8] - US employment is declining, with negative growth in the number of new ADP jobs in November and a significant increase in corporate lay - offs [11] - US consumption is weakening, with retail and food sales growing only 0.2% month - on - month in September [14] - US manufacturing prospects are poor, with capital goods imports falling both year - on - year and month - on - month in September, and the ISM manufacturing PMI index continuing to contract in November [17][20] - US inflation is accelerating, with the manufacturing PMI price index and the service PMI price index expanding [23] - The US economy is sliding towards stagflation, with a 0.9% month - on - month increase in the PPI of commodities in September, combined with weakening consumption and declining employment [26] - The eurozone manufacturing PMI contracted again in November, and the eurozone economy was greatly affected by US reciprocal tariffs [29] - The yield of Japan's 10 - year government bonds soared, and the large - scale return of yen carry trades will have a negative impact on US Treasuries, US stocks, and Chinese bonds [31] Asset Allocation - The Fed's purchase of $40 billion in short - term Treasuries per month is positive for precious metals, industrial metals, and Chinese equity assets [34] - Due to the year - end settlement effect, the A - share market may fluctuate and adjust until the end of the year [35] - AI focuses on computing power and electricity, and semiconductor equipment ETFs and grid equipment ETFs are expected to be highly prosperous [38][40] - The US economy sliding towards stagflation and the Fed's restart of balance sheet expansion are strongly positive for gold, which is expected to hit a previous high [42] - The price of silver has reached a new high, mainly due to physical shortages and the remonetization of silver in the post - dollar era [45] - Global copper inventories are continuously shifting to the US, and there is a shortage outside the US. The demand for AI computing power has broken the supply - demand balance of copper, and copper prices are expected to have a major rally [47][50] - The surge in computing power has led to a surge in chip demand, and the semiconductor supply chain is expanding. As chip packaging is the main area of tin consumption, tin demand is expected to surge, and tin is expected to enter a shortage era [54] - The acceleration of the RMB's appreciation is conducive to the accelerated inflow of international capital into China [57]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce plans to enhance innovation and high-quality development in the retail sector during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, increasing policy support for the industry [1] Group 1: Policy Initiatives - The Ministry will introduce opinions to accelerate innovation in the retail industry, focusing on reasonable planning, improving product and service quality, and optimizing both existing and new supply [1] - There will be an emphasis on fair competition between online and offline channels, aiming for a positive interaction between new supply and new demand [1] Group 2: Market Focus - The strategy will pay more attention to lower-tier markets to stimulate consumer potential [1] - The Ministry aims to promote innovative retail enhancement projects through urban pilot programs, creating influential retail scenarios and integrating innovative business models [1] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The goal is to cultivate a number of retail enterprises with international competitiveness and to build a modern retail system [1]

此前涨停五连板且创下历史新高的东百集团今日跌停，报13.43元，总市值116.8亿元。东百集团公告 称，公司股票2025年12月5日至12月11日，公司股票连续5个交易日以涨停价收盘，期间累计涨幅达 61.12%，平均换手率为12.00%，零售业同期平均换手率为4.19%。公司当前经营活动、经营秩序正常， 主营业务未发生重大变化，外部市场环境、行业政策亦未发生重大变化。鉴于公司股票已连续5个交易 日以涨停价收盘，存在市场情绪过热情形及较高的炒作风险，可能存在短期涨幅较大后的大幅下跌风 险。敬请广大投资者注意二级市场交易风险。 ...

Group 1 - Dongbai Group (600693.SH) experienced a significant drop today, hitting the daily limit down at 13.43 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 11.68 billion yuan [1] - The company announced that its stock had closed at the daily limit price for five consecutive trading days, resulting in a cumulative increase of 61.12%, with an average turnover rate of 12.00%, compared to the retail industry's average turnover rate of 4.19% during the same period [1] - Despite the stock's performance, the company stated that its current business operations and order status are normal, with no significant changes in its main business or external market environment [1] Group 2 - The company highlighted the potential for market sentiment to be overheated and the associated high speculation risks, indicating a possibility of a significant decline after a substantial short-term increase [1]

每经AI快讯，12月12日，零售板块持续走弱，茂业商业、东百集团逼近跌停，中央商场、永辉超市、 中百集团跟跌。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

1. Macroeconomic Data Overview - GDP in Q3 2025 grew by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but up from 4.6% in the same period last year [1] - In November 2025, the Manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, slightly up from 49.0% in the previous month but down from 50.3% in the same period last year; the Non-Manufacturing PMI: Business Activity was 49.5%, down from 50.1% in the previous month and 50.0% in the same period last year [1] - In October 2025, the monthly increase in social financing scale was 816.1 billion yuan, significantly lower than 3529.9 billion yuan in the previous month but higher than 1412.0 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - In November 2025, CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, up from 0.2% in the previous month and the same period last year; PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, down from -2.1% in the previous month but up from -2.5% in the same period last year [1] - In November 2025, exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year, turning positive from -1.1% in the previous month but slightly down from 6.58% in the same period last year; imports increased by 1.9% year-on-year, up from 1.0% in the previous month and turning positive from -4.03% in the same period last year [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference 2.1 Comprehensive - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized continuing proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, with 8 key tasks including promoting investment recovery, developing new energy, and stabilizing the real estate market [2] - High-frequency data in November showed positive trends in consumption, investment, and foreign trade, with offline consumption index up 12.0% year-on-year, infrastructure project中标金额 and construction machinery operating rate increasing, and international freight flights up 6.2 percentage points from October [2] - In the first 11 months, China's total goods import and export value increased by 3.6% year-on-year, with private enterprises' imports and exports reaching 23.52 trillion yuan, up 7.1% year-on-year, and the number of private enterprises with import and export records increasing by 66,000 [3] 2.2 Metals - The aluminum industry chain prices are diverging, with alumina prices halved from a year ago while electrolytic aluminum prices are rising, leading to improved profitability for electrolytic aluminum enterprises and potential losses for some alumina enterprises [4] - As of December 11, 2025, the international silver futures price on the COMEX had increased by 113.3% since the beginning of the year, reaching $62.5 per ounce [4] - Goldman Sachs believes there is room to raise the gold price forecast to $4900 per ounce by the end of 2026 if US private investors increase their investment in gold ETFs [5] 2.3 Energy and Chemicals - Jilin Province plans to develop future industries such as artificial intelligence, hydrogen energy, and new energy storage [8] - Citibank revised its oil price forecast, expecting Brent crude oil prices to remain stable in 2026, with an average price of $62 per barrel in the base scenario and potentially reaching $75 per barrel in an optimistic scenario [8] - OPEC maintained its global oil demand growth forecast at 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026 [9] 2.4 Agricultural Products - Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to continue rising in December, potentially exceeding 3 million tons if exports remain weak, and its 2025 production is expected to exceed 20 million tons for the first time [11] - Argentina reduced the export tax rate for soybeans from 26% to 24% and for wheat and barley from 9.5% to 7.5% [11] - Brazil has been authorized to export beef and beef products to Guatemala [12] 3. Financial News Compilation 3.1 Open Market - On December 11, the central bank conducted 118.6 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 62.2 billion yuan as 180.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [14] 3.2 Key News - The Central Economic Work Conference set the tone for next year's economic work, emphasizing proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, and outlined 8 key tasks [15] - The Ministry of Commerce will issue opinions to promote the innovation and development of the retail industry [15] - In November, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.532 million and 3.429 million vehicles respectively, with year-on-year growth of 2.8% and 3.4%, and new energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.88 million and 1.823 million vehicles respectively, with year-on-year growth of 20% and 20.6% [16] 3.3 Bond Market Summary - China's bond market continued to perform well, with most interest rate bond yields declining, and treasury bond futures rising [19] - In the exchange bond market, Vanke bonds generally adjusted downward, while some other bonds such as "25 TeGuo 03" rose [20] - Most money market interest rates declined on December 11 [21] 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.058 on December 11, up 58 points from the previous trading day, and the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.0686, up 67 points [24] 3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Construction Investment believes that the Central Economic Work Conference provided clear policy directions, including more proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, and emphasized new industries and anti-competition [25] - CITIC Securities expects the fiscal budget deficit rate to remain at around 4% in 2026, with a slight increase in the scale of special treasury bonds and local special bonds, and there may be a 10bps interest rate cut in the first half of the year [25][26] - Huatai Fixed Income believes that the November inflation data has some impact on the bond market, but the bond market's counterattack logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to hold short-term credit bonds, certificates of deposit, and interest rate bonds with maturities of 5 - 7 years or less [26] 4. Stock Market News - The A-share market declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.27%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.41%, while the BeiZheng 50 Index rose 3.84% [29] - The Hong Kong stock market opened higher but closed lower, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.04%, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.83%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down 0.23% [29]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce plans to enhance innovation and transformation in the retail industry during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with increased policy support to promote high-quality development [1] Group 1: Policy Initiatives - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce opinions to accelerate innovation in the retail sector, focusing on reasonable layout planning, improving product and service quality, and optimizing both existing and new supply [1] - There will be an emphasis on fair competition between online and offline channels, fostering a positive interaction between new supply and new demand [1] Group 2: Market Focus - The strategy will prioritize the development of new business formats, models, and scenarios, with a particular focus on penetrating lower-tier markets to stimulate consumer potential [1] Group 3: Implementation Strategies - The Ministry aims to promote the Retail Innovation Enhancement Project by conducting urban pilot programs to create influential retail scenarios and introduce innovative business models [3] - The goal is to cultivate a number of internationally competitive retail enterprises and to build a modern retail system [3]

每经AI快讯，12月12日，零售板块短线走低，东百集团、永辉超市跌停，中百集团、三江购物、美凯 龙、广百股份、国光连锁等跟跌。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

今日关注 申购提示：今日两只新股申购。 5．中国汽车工业协会12月11日发布的最新数据显示，11月份，我国汽车产销延续良好表现，生产供给 依然保持较快节奏，产销量环比、同比均实现增长。最新数据显示，11月份，我国汽车月度产量首次超 过350万辆，创历史新高。不仅如此，今年前11个月，汽车产销量均超过3100万辆，同比增长均超过 10%。中国汽车工业协会的最新数据同时显示，今年1至11月，我国新能源汽车产销量均接近1500万 辆，同比增长均超过30%。在出口方面，新能源汽车出口231.5万辆，同比增长1倍。 6．《辽宁省冰雪旅游高质量发展三年行动计划（2025—2027年）》公开征求意见。其中提到，充分挖 掘辽宁冰雪文化内涵，健全完善专业型、爱好型、大众型三级产品体系，持续创新"冰雪+""+冰雪"多元 业态与消费场景，构建层次清晰、特色鲜明的辽宁冰雪旅游发展新格局，塑造具有辽宁辨识度的大众冰 雪旅游品牌。培育省级以上滑雪旅游度假地10个，打造冰雪旅游精品线路10条以上，冰雪旅游综合消费 带动效应显著增强，辽宁冰雪品牌影响力全面提升。力争到2027年，全省冰雪旅游年接待人次突破2.6 亿，年综合收入达到2500亿 ...

（央视财经《经济信息联播》）"十五五"规划提出要"大力提振消费"，促进形成更多由内需主导、消费 拉动、内生增长的经济发展模式。商务部新闻发言人在今天（11日）举行的发布会上表示，商务部将谋 划"十五五"时期零售业创新转型和高质量发展，加大政策的支持力度。 转载请注明央视财经 编辑：令文芳 商务部新闻发言人 何亚东：一是出台加快零售业创新发展的意见，通过统筹规划、合理布局，提升商 品和服务质量，协同优化存量和增量，推动线上线下公平竞争等，实现新供给、新需求的良性互动。二 是总结各地的好经验、好做法，发展新业态、新模式和新场景，更加注重下沉市场，激发消费潜力。三 是推进零售业创新提升工程。通过开展城市试点，打造一批引领带动性强的零售场景，推出一批融合创 新的业态模式，培育一批具有国际竞争力的零售企业，推动构建现代零售体系。 ...