纳指小幅高开 腾讯音乐涨超4% 智通财经6月10日电，美股三大指数开盘涨跌互现，道指跌0.04%，纳指涨0.15%，标普500指数涨 0.11%。腾讯音乐涨超4%，公司拟议收购喜马拉雅控股。台积电涨超2%，5月营收同比增长39.6%。食 品巨头斯马克跌超6%，Q4营收不及预期。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the company has raised its adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 6% and 9% to 1.93 billion and 2.20 billion RMB respectively, based on better-than-expected cost optimization [1] - The target price for the next 12 months has been increased to 240 HKD from 184 HKD, with the core business contributing 223 HKD based on an average P/E ratio of 20 times for quality content and copyright companies [1] - The cash contribution to the target price is 17 HKD, reflecting a 30% discount [1] Group 2 - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.86 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 8%, which is a larger drop compared to a 2% decline in the second half of 2024, primarily due to a decrease in social entertainment revenue [1] - The gross margin improved to 36.7%, up 3.7 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from growth in subscription revenue and optimization in live streaming revenue sharing [1] - For 2025, online music revenue is expected to grow by 15% year-on-year, with subscription revenue projected to increase by 16%, driven by membership expansion [2] - Non-member business revenue is anticipated to rise by 11%, although advertising revenue growth may slow due to a high base effect [2] - Social revenue expectations have been lowered by 7% to 1.8 billion RMB, corresponding to a year-on-year decline of 31%, but profit is expected to remain stable due to optimized revenue sharing costs [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International raises the target price for NetEase Cloud Music (09899.HK) to HKD 240, maintaining a "Buy" rating due to faster-than-expected cost optimization and growth potential in long-term membership revenue [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been increased by 6% and 9% respectively [1] - The gross profit margin for the first quarter of this year increased by 3.7 percentage points year-on-year to 36.7%, surpassing both the bank's and market expectations [1] Revenue Drivers - The growth in membership subscription revenue, increased income from various professional services, and optimization of live streaming revenue sharing are key contributors to the improved financial performance [1] Market Outlook - There is significant operational space for the paid wall and ARPPU (Average Revenue Per Paying User), indicating a positive long-term outlook for membership income growth [1]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Strong Buy" rating for Tencent Music [1][7]. Core Insights - Tencent Music, backed by Tencent, has a solid content copyright advantage and is leveraging innovative technologies like AIGC to enhance member benefits, which is expected to further increase the paid user rate and ARPU [1][7]. - The company is projected to achieve revenue growth from 310 billion to 376 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with adjusted net profits expected to rise from 89 billion to 110 billion CNY during the same period [7][8]. Company Overview - Tencent Music Entertainment Group was established in 2016 through the merger of Tencent and China Music Corporation (CMC), which had long-term agency agreements with nearly 100 record companies, holding a vast library of over 20 million licensed songs [7][13]. - The company has built a strong content barrier by integrating QQ Music and CMC, covering most core copyright resources and maintaining deep collaborations with major labels [7][13]. Core Business - The core business is divided into online music services and social entertainment services, with online music becoming the main growth driver, accounting for over 54% of total revenue in 2024 [7][24]. - Online music service revenue is expected to reach 217.4 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 25.5%, driven by an increase in paid users and average revenue per user (ARPU) [24][30]. Industry Analysis - Tencent Music is positioned as a leader in the online music market, holding approximately 70% market share, and is compared to global leaders like Spotify and Apple Music, with significant room for growth in paid user rates [7][49]. - The report highlights the increasing maturity of domestic users' willingness to pay, which, combined with diversified member benefits, is expected to drive further growth in paid user rates and ARPU [7][62]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts total revenue for Tencent Music to reach 30,957 million CNY in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 9%, and adjusted net profit to reach 8,897 million CNY, reflecting a 16% increase [8][24]. - The PE ratio is projected to decrease from 22.8 in 2025 to 18.4 by 2027, indicating a favorable valuation trend [8][24].

Core Viewpoint - NetEase Cloud Music has filed a lawsuit against Tencent Music Entertainment and its subsidiaries for abusing market dominance, with the case set to be heard on June 5 in the Zhejiang Provincial High Court [1] Company Summary - The lawsuit involves multiple parties, including Hangzhou NetEase Cloud Music Technology Co., Ltd. and Hangzhou LeDu Technology Co., Ltd. as plaintiffs, and Dongyang Huanyu Film and Television Culture Co., Ltd., Tencent Music Entertainment (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd., and Tencent Music Entertainment Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd. as defendants [1] - Dongyang Huanyu Film and Television Culture Co., Ltd. was established in August 2012, with a registered capital of 30 million RMB, and is co-owned by Yu Zheng, Yang Yin Feng, and a limited partnership [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][26]. Core Views - The company's revenue increased by 7% year-on-year, with a notable profit performance primarily influenced by sales expenses. In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 28.8 billion yuan, a 7% increase year-on-year. The Non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company was 11.2 billion yuan, representing a 32% year-on-year growth, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 39%, up by 7 percentage points year-on-year [10][4]. - The online gaming business showed strong growth, with revenue reaching 23.4 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 15% increase year-on-year. PC game revenue surged by 85% to 8.1 billion yuan, driven by the return of popular titles and new game releases [2][19]. - The company has adjusted its profit expectations upward, forecasting adjusted net profits of 39.3 billion, 42.5 billion, and 46.7 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting increases of 5%, 2%, and 2% respectively [4][26]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a comprehensive gross margin of 64.1%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year. The gross margin for games and value-added services was 68.8%, down by 0.7 percentage points due to changes in game product structure. The total operating expense ratio was 28%, a decrease of 7 percentage points year-on-year, with the sales expense ratio at 9.4%, down by 4.6 percentage points [10][11]. Game Business - The mobile game revenue was 15.4 billion yuan, down 4% year-on-year due to a high base from the previous year. However, the PC game revenue of 8.1 billion yuan saw an impressive 85% increase, attributed to the successful return of titles like "Overwatch" and the performance of new games [2][19]. - Several new games have performed exceptionally well, enhancing the company's global gaming influence. Titles like "Marvel's Contest of Champions" and "Outsiders" have quickly climbed to the top of sales charts [19][2]. Other Business Segments - The company's education segment, Youdao, reported a net revenue of 1.3 billion yuan, a 7% year-on-year decline, but the decline rate has narrowed compared to the previous quarter. Key products in AI educational services and programming learning have shown significant growth [20]. - NetEase Cloud Music reported a net revenue of 1.9 billion yuan, down 8% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 36.8%. The decline was primarily due to a one-time copyright adjustment in the previous year [23].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][9] Core Views - The company's game business is showing steady growth, with a diversified content strategy [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 28.83 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 7.4% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 7.8% [4] - The gross profit for Q1 2025 was 18.48 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 64.1%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-over-year [4] - The adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was 11.24 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 32.0% and a net margin of 39.0%, up 7.3 percentage points year-over-year [4] Game Business Performance - The revenue from games and related services in Q1 was 24 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 12.1% [5] - Key titles contributing to revenue include "Identity V," which was a major income source, and several new games that performed well [5] - The company has a strong pipeline of new games, including "Destiny: Rising" and "Marvel: Secret Wars," enhancing its product matrix [5] AI and Education Strategy - The Youdao business is advancing its "AI-native" strategy, achieving a gross margin of 47.3% in Q1 [6] - The integration of AI into educational products is aimed at enhancing the user experience and driving intelligent transformation across various sectors [6] Music and Content Ecosystem - The cloud music segment achieved a gross margin of 36.7% in Q1, with a focus on community ecosystem development to enhance user engagement [7] - The platform is leveraging AI capabilities for song recommendations and content creation, enriching the creator ecosystem [7] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 113.86 billion yuan, 118.78 billion yuan, and 124.09 billion yuan, respectively [8] - The adjusted net profit (Non-GAAP) for the same years is projected to be 38.81 billion yuan, 39.92 billion yuan, and 41.31 billion yuan [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][9] Core Views - The company's game business is showing steady growth, with a diversified content strategy [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 28.83 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 7.4% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 7.8% [4] - The gross profit for Q1 2025 was 18.48 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 64.1%, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 0.7 percentage points [4] - The adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was 11.24 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 32.0%, with a net margin of 39.0%, up 7.3 percentage points year-over-year [4] Summary by Sections Game Business Performance - The revenue from games and related services in Q1 was 24 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 12.1% [5] - Key titles contributing to revenue include "Identity V," which was the main revenue driver, and several new games like "Marvel Showdown" and "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" performing well in the market [5] - Long-term operational games are showing stable performance, with titles like "Identity V" and "Naraka: Bladepoint" maintaining steady revenue streams [5] Youdao Business Strategy - Youdao's business is advancing its "AI-native" strategy, achieving a gross margin of 47.3% in Q1 [6] - The strategy focuses on AI-enabled products and services to drive intelligent transformation across various industries [6] Cloud Music Operations - Cloud Music achieved a gross margin of 36.7% in Q1, with a focus on community ecosystem building to enhance user engagement [7] - The platform is leveraging AI capabilities for song recommendations and content creation, enriching its creator ecosystem [7] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 113.86 billion yuan, 118.78 billion yuan, and 124.09 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 38.81 billion yuan, 39.92 billion yuan, and 41.31 billion yuan [8] - The company expects a year-over-year revenue growth of 8.1% in 2025, followed by 4.3% and 4.5% in the subsequent years [11]

qoq+2.7%）。我们预期随着SVIP 更高ARPPU 的会员套餐渗透率提升，25Q2 公司ARPPU 将持续提升， 或达11.6 元/月，MPU 或达1.24 亿。 Q1 社交娱乐收入15.5 亿人民币（yoy-11.9%, qoq-4.6%），同比减少主要系对直播互动功能进行了调整 和更严格的合规程序所致。我们预期25Q2 收入或达15.5 亿元（yoy-11%，qoq+0%），同比下滑主要系 公司合续缩紧叠加宏观因素导致。 随着在线音乐付费用户、ARPPU 双增，公司在线音乐收入在整体结构比重持续提高，利润率端有望持 续优化。我们预计 25-27 年归母净利润分别为104/101/112 亿元(25-26 年原预测值为 76/91 亿元，因根据 财报上调arppu，毛利率、其他收益等调整盈利预测)。因25 年有高额其他收益，我们参照可比公司，给 予26 年27 倍P/E，目标价94.86 港币(87.26 人民币)，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 机构：东方证券 研究员：项雯倩/李雨琪/金沐阳 Q1 营收73.6 亿人民币(yoy+8.7%, qoq-1.4%)，Q1 毛利率44.07% (yoy+3. ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley suggests that investors can buy US stocks on dips following Moody's downgrade of the US rating [2] - The Reserve Bank of Australia emphasizes that maintaining low and stable inflation is a top priority [2] - Danske Bank delays expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut due to easing recession risks [2] Group 2 - CITIC Securities highlights the continuous catalysts in the nuclear fusion sector, indicating strong growth prospects [2] - CITIC Construction Investment notes that the global online music industry is experiencing both volume and price increases, building long-term growth potential [2] - Galaxy Securities reports that positive factors in the banking sector are accumulating, with improvements expected [2] - Tianfeng Securities mentions that Xiaomi's self-developed chips may accelerate changes in the competitive landscape of high-end domestic smartphones [2] - Zhongtai Securities anticipates structural market opportunities in the vitamin sector due to price increases and performance realization [2] - Everbright Securities sees potential acceleration in the commercialization process, focusing on the application of exoskeleton robots in medical rehabilitation [2] - Guotai Junan Securities indicates that the liquor industry is seeking a bottom in its cycle, highlighting its investment value [2]