Consumption Data - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, marking a decline of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month and the lowest monthly growth rate this year[3] - Retail sales of automobiles fell by 1.5% year-on-year, a significant drop of 6.1 percentage points compared to June, closely linked to the recent downturn in the real estate market[3] - Retail sales of communication equipment rose by 14.9%, while home appliances and furniture grew by 28.7% and 20.6%, respectively, despite declines from June[3] Investment and Real Estate - Fixed asset investment saw a sharp decline of 5.3% year-on-year in July, the largest drop since April 2020[4] - Real estate development investment fell by 17.0% year-on-year, the lowest since December 2022, indicating a renewed acceleration in market adjustments[4] - The area of residential sales decreased by 7.1% year-on-year, remaining at a low level despite a slight improvement[5] Industrial Production - The industrial added value growth rate fell to 5.7% year-on-year, down 1.1 percentage points, with the mining and manufacturing sectors also experiencing declines[6] - The automotive manufacturing sector saw a significant drop of 2.9 percentage points to 8.5%, the lowest since November 2024, reflecting the combined effects of supply-side policies and demand cooling[6] Policy Implications - The simultaneous cooling of retail, investment, and real estate markets in July may signal the need for policy measures in the second half of the year[6] - The central government may need to implement larger subsidies for durable goods consumption and consider a small interest rate cut of 10 basis points to stabilize the real estate market[6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of China's economy in July, highlighting a slowdown in key economic indicators due to external and domestic challenges, including extreme weather and trade tensions. The focus is on maintaining policy stability and promoting domestic demand to support economic growth [3][4][5]. Economic Performance - In July, China's industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from June. The retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7%, also down by 1.1 percentage points from the previous month [3][4]. - Fixed asset investment from January to July rose by 1.6% year-on-year, with a decline of 1.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [3][4]. Industrial Production - The manufacturing sector showed a growth of 6.2% in July, while the mining industry grew by 5.0% and the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector increased by 3.3% [4]. - The article notes that the "two new" initiatives are positively impacting industrial production, with significant growth in shipbuilding and electric motor manufacturing [4][5]. Consumer Market - The consumer market showed a mixed performance, with retail sales growth slowing down in July but service sector sales remaining stable. The overall retail sales growth for services was 5.2% from January to July [10][11]. - The article emphasizes the impact of policies promoting the replacement of old consumer goods, which has led to substantial growth in categories like electric bicycles and 5G smartphones [10][11]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment reached 288,229 billion yuan from January to July, with a 1.6% year-on-year increase. Excluding real estate, investment grew by 5.3% [14]. - Infrastructure investment rose by 3.2%, while manufacturing investment increased by 6.2%. However, real estate development investment saw a decline of 12.0% [14][15]. - The article highlights that despite a nominal slowdown in investment growth, the actual physical workload remains robust, driven by innovation and equipment upgrades [14][16]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that while there are pressures on investment growth, the potential for future investment remains significant, particularly in new productive forces and urban-rural coordination [16]. - The need for continued policy support to enhance domestic demand and innovation is emphasized to ensure sustainable economic development [5][7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View In July 2025, under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core, the national economy maintained a steady - advancing development trend, with sustained growth in production and demand, overall stable employment and prices, the cultivation and expansion of new - quality productive forces, and new achievements in high - quality development [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry - In July, the national above - scale industrial added value increased by 5.7% year - on - year and 0.38% month - on - month. From January to July, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year. The manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, and the enterprise production and operation activity expectation index was 52.6%. From January to June, the total profit of above - scale industrial enterprises was 34365 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8% [3]. Service - In July, the national service industry production index increased by 5.8% year - on - year. From January to July, it increased by 5.9% year - on - year. The service industry business activity index was 50.0%, and the service industry business activity expectation index was 56.6%. Some industries were in the high - level boom range [4]. Consumption - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 38780 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%. From January to July, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 284238 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. The national online retail sales were 86835 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. The service retail sales from January to July increased by 5.2% year - on - year [5]. Investment - From January to July, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 288229 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. Excluding real estate development investment, it increased by 5.3%. Infrastructure investment increased by 3.2%, manufacturing investment increased by 6.2%, and real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% [6]. Import and Export - In July, the total value of goods imports and exports was 39102 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. From January to July, the total value of goods imports and exports was 256969 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. Exports increased by 7.3%, and imports decreased by 1.6% [7]. Price - In July, the national consumer price (CPI) was flat year - on - year and increased by 0.4% month - on - month. The core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year. The national industrial producer price index (PPI) decreased by 3.6% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month [8]. Employment - From January to July, the average national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.2%. In July, it was 5.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month and the same as the same month last year [9].

Economic Overview - China's economy showed stable operation in July, but some economic indicators experienced a decline due to external complexities and extreme weather conditions [2][4] - The industrial added value for July increased by 5.7% year-on-year, a slowdown of 1.1 percentage points compared to June [2][4] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% year-on-year in July, also down by 1.1 percentage points from June [2][8] Industrial Production - Industrial production growth slightly slowed in July, with the mining sector increasing by 5.0%, manufacturing by 6.2%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply by 3.3% [4][6] - The "Two New" initiatives and equipment upgrades contributed positively to industrial production, with shipbuilding and motor manufacturing seeing increases of 29.7% and 15.9%, respectively [4][6] - Despite the overall stability in industrial production, external pressures and internal competition may lead to a potential decline in growth rates [5][6] Investment Trends - From January to July, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 288.229 billion yuan, growing by 1.6% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment up by 3.2% and manufacturing investment by 6.2% [11][12] - Real estate development investment saw a significant decline of 12.0% [11] - Investment in high-tech sectors such as aerospace and computer manufacturing showed robust growth, with increases of 33.9% and 16%, respectively [12] Consumer Market - The service sector maintained stable growth, with service retail sales increasing by 5.2% from January to July, while the overall consumer market showed signs of slowing down [8][9] - Policies promoting the replacement of old consumer goods positively impacted sales, particularly in home appliances and communication devices [8][9] - The tourism and leisure sectors experienced significant growth, driven by increased consumer demand during the summer [8][9]

Economic Growth - In July, the industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, down from 6.8% in June, with a cumulative growth of 6.3% from January to July[1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% year-on-year in July, a decrease from 4.8% in June, with a cumulative growth of 4.8% from January to July[1] - Fixed asset investment increased by 1.6% year-on-year from January to July, down from 2.8% in the previous period, with an annual growth target of 3.2%[1] Industrial Production - The industrial added value growth rate slowed by 1.1 percentage points in July, primarily due to weak domestic demand and external pressures[3] - Mining industry added value grew by 5.0%, down 1.1 percentage points, while manufacturing added value increased by 6.2%, down 1.2 percentage points[4] - Export delivery value only grew by 0.8% in July, a significant drop of 3.2 percentage points from the previous month[4] Consumer Spending - Retail sales growth slowed to 3.7% in July, primarily due to the suspension of the old-for-new consumption policy in some regions[6] - The retail sales of furniture, home appliances, and cultural office supplies increased by 20.6%, 28.7%, and 13.8% respectively, but growth rates decreased compared to June[6] - Cumulative retail sales growth from January to July was 4.8%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year[7] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth from January to July was 1.6%, down 1.2 percentage points, with declines in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate investments[8] - Manufacturing investment growth was 6.2%, down 1.3 percentage points, influenced by external environment fluctuations and the implementation of anti-"involution" policies[8] - Real estate investment saw a cumulative decline of 12.0% from January to July, with a worsening drop of 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous period[10] Future Outlook - Economic growth momentum is expected to remain weak in August, with potential policy measures anticipated in the fourth quarter to stabilize the economy[12] - The macroeconomic policy may include increased fiscal support, interest rate cuts, and stronger measures to stabilize the real estate market[12] - The overall economic growth target for the year is around 5.0%, with expectations of a decline in industrial production growth due to weakening export momentum[12]

Economic Overview - In July, the national economy maintained a steady and progressive development trend, with industrial added value increasing by 5.7% year-on-year and retail sales of consumer goods reaching 38,780 billion yuan, up 3.7% year-on-year [1][2][10] Industrial Production - The industrial added value for July increased by 5.7% year-on-year and 0.38% month-on-month, with mining, manufacturing, and electricity sectors growing by 5.0%, 6.2%, and 3.3% respectively [3] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing saw significant growth, with increases of 9.3% and 8.4% year-on-year, respectively [3] - The manufacturing purchasing managers' index was recorded at 49.3, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity [3] Service Sector - The service sector production index rose by 5.8% year-on-year in July, with notable growth in information transmission, finance, and business services [4] - The business activity index for the service sector was at 50.0, indicating stability, while the business activity expectation index was at 56.6, suggesting positive future expectations [4] Retail Sales - Retail sales of consumer goods totaled 38,780 billion yuan in July, marking a 3.7% year-on-year increase, with urban and rural retail sales growing by 3.6% and 3.9%, respectively [5] - Online retail sales reached 86,835 billion yuan, up 9.2% year-on-year, with physical goods accounting for 24.9% of total retail sales [5] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 288,229 billion yuan from January to July, growing by 1.6% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment increasing by 6.2% [6] - Infrastructure investment grew by 3.2%, while real estate development investment saw a decline of 12.0% [6] Trade and Exports - In July, the total value of goods imports and exports was 39,102 billion yuan, up 6.7% year-on-year, with exports increasing by 8.0% and imports by 4.8% [7] - From January to July, the total value of goods imports and exports was 256,969 billion yuan, a 3.5% increase year-on-year [7] Employment and Prices - The urban survey unemployment rate was stable at 5.2% in July, with a slight seasonal increase [8] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat year-on-year in July, with core CPI rising by 0.8% [9]

Core Insights - The industrial added value for July increased by 5.7% year-on-year and 0.38% month-on-month [1] By Industry Category - Mining industry grew by 5.0% [1] - Manufacturing industry saw an increase of 6.2% [1] - Electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry rose by 3.3% [1] By Economic Type - State-owned enterprises increased by 6.5% [2] - Shareholding enterprises grew by 5.4% [2] - Foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan enterprises increased by 5.0% [2] - Private enterprises saw a growth of 2.8% [2] By Specific Industries - Out of 41 major industries, 35 maintained year-on-year growth [3] - Coal mining and washing industry grew by 4.2% [3] - Oil and natural gas extraction increased by 4.1% [3] - Agricultural and sideline food processing industry grew by 5.6% [3] - Chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing increased by 7.2% [3] - Black metal smelting and rolling processing industry rose by 8.6% [3] - General equipment manufacturing increased by 8.4% [3] - Automotive manufacturing grew by 8.5% [4] By Product - Among 623 industrial products, 335 saw year-on-year growth [4] - Automotive production reached 2.51 million units, an increase of 8.4% [5] - New energy vehicles reached 1.176 million units, growing by 17.1% [5] - Power generation was 926.7 billion kWh, up by 3.1% [5] - Crude oil processing volume was 63.06 million tons, an increase of 8.9% [5]

Core Viewpoint - In July, the national economy maintained a steady and progressive development trend, with continuous growth in production and demand, overall stability in employment and prices, and significant achievements in high-quality development [2][11]. Group 1: Industrial Production - In July, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.7% year-on-year and 0.38% month-on-month [3]. - The manufacturing sector grew by 6.2%, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 8.4% and 9.3%, respectively [3]. - The profit of large-scale industrial enterprises from January to June was 34,365 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% [3]. Group 2: Service Sector - The service production index increased by 5.8% year-on-year in July, with significant growth in information transmission, software, and financial services [4]. - The business activity index for the service sector was at 50.0%, indicating stable business conditions [4]. Group 3: Market Sales - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,780 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [5]. - Online retail sales amounted to 86,835 billion yuan, growing by 9.2% year-on-year, with physical goods online retail sales at 70,790 billion yuan [6]. Group 4: Fixed Asset Investment - From January to July, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 288,229 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [7]. - Manufacturing investment grew by 6.2%, while real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% [7]. Group 5: Trade and Exports - In July, the total value of goods imports and exports reached 39,102 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [8]. - Exports grew by 8.0%, while imports increased by 4.8% [8]. Group 6: Employment - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in July was 5.2%, with a seasonal increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [9]. - The average weekly working hours for employees were 48.5 hours [9]. Group 7: Consumer Prices - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [10]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.8% year-on-year [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the steady growth of China's economy in July, driven by robust industrial production, service sector expansion, and increasing consumer demand, despite facing external challenges and domestic issues [3][13]. Group 1: Industrial Production - In July, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.7% year-on-year and 0.38% month-on-month [4] - The manufacturing sector grew by 6.2%, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 8.4% and 9.3% respectively, outperforming the overall industrial growth [4] - The profit of large-scale industrial enterprises totaled 34,365 billion yuan from January to June, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.8% [4] Group 2: Service Sector - The service sector production index rose by 5.8% year-on-year in July, with significant growth in information transmission, finance, and business services [5][6] - From January to July, the service sector production index increased by 5.9%, and the revenue of large-scale service enterprises grew by 7.5% [5][6] Group 3: Market Sales - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,780 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [7] - Online retail sales amounted to 86,835 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.2%, and physical goods online retail sales grew by 6.3% [7] Group 4: Fixed Asset Investment - From January to July, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 288,229 billion yuan, up 1.6% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment increasing by 6.2% [8] - Infrastructure investment grew by 3.2%, while real estate development investment saw a decline of 12.0% [8] Group 5: Trade and Employment - In July, the total import and export value reached 39,102 billion yuan, with exports growing by 8.0% and imports by 4.8% [9] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate was stable at 5.2% in July, with a slight seasonal increase [10][11] Group 6: Consumer Prices - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [12] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, indicating a slight increase in inflationary pressure [12]

Economic Overview - In July, under the strong leadership of the Central Committee, the national economy maintained a steady growth trend, with production and demand continuing to rise, and overall employment and prices remaining stable [1][9] Industrial Production - In July, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.7% year-on-year and 0.38% month-on-month. The mining industry grew by 5.0%, manufacturing by 6.2%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply by 3.3% [2] - The equipment manufacturing industry saw an 8.4% increase, while high-tech manufacturing grew by 9.3%, outperforming the overall industrial growth by 2.7 and 3.6 percentage points respectively [2] - The manufacturing purchasing managers' index was at 49.3, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity [2] Service Sector - The service production index rose by 5.8% year-on-year in July, with significant growth in information transmission, software, and IT services (11.9%), finance (8.7%), and leasing and business services (8.0%) [3] - The business activity index for services was at 50.0, indicating stable activity levels [3] Retail Sales - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,780 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [4] - Online retail sales amounted to 86,835 billion yuan, growing by 9.2% year-on-year, with physical goods accounting for 70,790 billion yuan, a 6.3% increase [4] Fixed Asset Investment - From January to July, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 288,229 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [5] - Manufacturing investment grew by 6.2%, while real estate development investment declined by 12.0% [5] Trade and Exports - In July, the total value of goods imports and exports reached 39,102 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [6] - Exports amounted to 23,077 billion yuan, growing by 8.0%, while imports were 16,026 billion yuan, increasing by 4.8% [6] Employment - The urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.2% from January to July, with July's rate at 5.2%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month [7] Consumer Prices - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [8] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8%, indicating a slight increase in underlying inflation pressures [8]