美国的去中国化稀土梦，似乎注定了不会如愿以偿。为何美国一方面拼命投入资金，一方面又拉拢盟友推行稀土自主计划，却连半年都撑不过？美国扬言打 造的西方稀土供应链，为何最终成了一个虚无的幻影？中国在稀土领域的硬核实力到底凭什么让美国无论怎么绕都绕不开？ 最近，有消息爆料称，特朗普政府在推行稀土计划时只坚持了短短六个月，便准备放弃原本的最低价格保障政策。这个政策一度被视为特朗普政府应对美国 关键矿产受限的核心举措，目的是通过设定最低价格吸引企业投资稀土产业。然而，除了少数几个国家愿意响应，美国的盟友对此计划几乎都表示冷淡。特 别是美国曾试图借助一场会议来推动西方国家建立独立的稀土供应链，结果除了日本和澳大利亚，其他国家几乎都对这一提议置之不理。特朗普急了，直接 签署命令，要求全球的关键矿产企业在7月30日之前与美国达成合作，否则将面临严重后果。为了讨好特朗普，日本不仅动了嘴皮子，更是实际投入了大量 资金。面对中国实施稀土管制后，日本高市早苗激动得几乎翘首以待，等着美国带来的好消息。她曾信心满满地表示，一旦深海稀土成功商业化，日本将摆 脱对中国的依赖，避免被国际形势和地缘政治风险所束缚。然而，等待的不是好消息，而是特朗 ...

易方达中证稀土产业ETF（159715）成立日期2021年9月1日，最新规模5.4亿。今年以来收益11.2%，同 类排名914/5580；近一年收益99.64%，同类排名121/4286；成立以来收益33.92%。 易方达中证稀土产业ETF（159715）基金经理为刘文魁。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，易方达基金旗下1只基金重仓中国稀土。易方达中证稀土产业ETF（159715）四季度减持 5.61万股，持有股数56.36万股，占基金净值比例为4.85%，位居第八大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮亏损 失约153.3万元。 2月2日，中国稀土跌5.02%，截至发稿，报51.50元/股，成交19.12亿元，换手率3.43%，总市值546.53亿 元。 资料显示，中国稀土集团资源科技股份有限公司位于江西省赣州市章贡区章江南大道18号豪德银座A栋 14、15层，成立日期1998年6月17日，上市日期1998年9月11日，公司主营业务涉及稀土冶炼分离及稀土 技术研发及服务。主营业务收入构成为：稀土氧化物63.51%，稀土金属及合金35.95%，其他(补 充)0.35%，技术服务收入0.18%。 截至发稿，刘文魁累计任职时间 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.02 鹰派扰动，价格巨震 [Table_Industry] 有色金属 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 李鹏飞(分析师) | 010-83939783 | lipengfei2@gtht.com | S0880519080003 | | 魏雨迪(分析师) | 021-38674763 | weiyudi@gtht.com | S0880520010002 | | 刘小华(分析师) | 021-38038434 | liuxiaohua@gtht.com | S0880523120003 | | 王宏玉(分析师) | 021-38038343 | wanghongyu@gtht.com | S0880523060005 | | 梁琳(分析师) | 021-23185845 | lianglin@gtht.com | S0880525070014 | | 李阳(分析师) | 021-23185618 | liyang7@gtht.com | S088052504 ...

易方达中证稀土产业ETF（159715）基金经理为刘文魁。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，易方达基金旗下1只基金重仓盛和资源。易方达中证稀土产业ETF（159715）四季度减持 10.35万股，持有股数106.24万股，占基金净值比例为4.23%，位居第十大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮亏 损失约156.17万元。 易方达中证稀土产业ETF（159715）成立日期2021年9月1日，最新规模5.4亿。今年以来收益11.2%，同 类排名914/5579；近一年收益99.64%，同类排名121/4285；成立以来收益33.92%。 2月2日，盛和资源跌5.44%，截至发稿，报25.56元/股，成交1.28亿元，换手率0.29%，总市值448.02亿 元。 资料显示，盛和资源控股股份有限公司位于四川省成都市双流区怡腾路399号，成立日期1998年7月1 日，上市日期2003年5月29日，公司主营业务涉及稀土冶炼分离与深加工及稀土贸易业务。锆钛选矿及 加工业务。 截至发稿，刘文魁累计任职时间2年148天，现任基金资产总规模49.2亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 115.29%， 任职期间最差基金回报-0.33%。 责任编辑： ...

Investment Ratings - The report indicates a positive outlook for copper and aluminum sectors, with expectations of stable production and demand recovery [2][3][13] Core Insights - Copper prices increased by 3.98% to $13,650.5 per ton on LME, while domestic prices rose by 2.31% to 103,700 CNY per ton. Supply constraints and stable production rates are noted, with a slight decrease in operating rates expected due to seasonal demand fluctuations [2][14] - Aluminum prices rose by 1.75% to $3,229.0 per ton on LME, with domestic prices at 24,600 CNY per ton. The report highlights a seasonal decline in production rates and a high operating rate in alumina plants, despite a slight increase in inventory levels [3][15] - Gold prices surged by 8.58% to $5,410.8 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and market volatility. The report emphasizes the impact of U.S. monetary policy on gold prices [4][16] - The rare earth sector shows a positive trend, with prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide increasing by 11.30%. The report anticipates a favorable demand outlook due to easing export restrictions [5][34] - Tungsten prices rose by 12.99%, supported by strategic stockpiling initiatives in the U.S. and increasing demand in military applications [5][36] Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price increased by 3.98% to $13,650.5 per ton, with domestic prices at 103,700 CNY per ton. Supply constraints are evident, with a decrease in copper processing fees [2][14] - Operating rates for copper cable enterprises increased to 59.46%, indicating stable production driven by prior orders [2][14] Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 1.75% to $3,229.0 per ton, with domestic prices at 24,600 CNY per ton. The report notes a decrease in operating rates due to seasonal factors [3][15] - The overall aluminum processing rate recorded at 59.4%, reflecting a seasonal decline in demand [3][15] Precious Metals - Gold prices increased significantly due to geopolitical tensions, with COMEX gold price reaching $5,410.8 per ounce. The report discusses the implications of U.S. monetary policy on gold market dynamics [4][16] Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide rose by 11.30%, with expectations of increased demand due to favorable export conditions [5][34] - The report highlights the potential for price increases in the rare earth sector driven by supply constraints and demand recovery [5][34] Tungsten - Tungsten prices increased by 12.99%, supported by strategic stockpiling initiatives and military demand [5][36] - The report suggests that the tungsten sector may benefit from ongoing geopolitical tensions and increased defense spending [5][36]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for copper and aluminum sectors, with expectations of stable production and demand recovery in the near term [2][3][13]. Core Insights - Copper prices increased by 3.98% to $13,650.5 per ton on LME, while domestic prices rose by 2.31% to 103,700 CNY per ton. The overall production stability in the copper industry is noted, with a slight decrease in operating rates expected due to seasonal demand fluctuations [2][14]. - Aluminum prices saw a 1.75% increase to $3,229.0 per ton on LME, with domestic prices at 24,600 CNY per ton. The report highlights a seasonal decline in aluminum processing rates, indicating a shift towards the off-peak season [3][15]. - Gold prices surged by 8.58% to $5,410.8 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and market volatility. The report emphasizes the impact of U.S. monetary policy on gold prices [4][16]. - The rare earth sector shows a positive trend, with prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide rising by 11.30%. The report anticipates a favorable demand outlook due to easing export restrictions [5][32][34]. Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price increased by 3.98% to $13,650.5 per ton, with domestic prices at 103,700 CNY per ton. Copper inventory decreased by 2.24% week-on-week, while total inventory increased by 4.97% year-on-year [2][14]. - The operating rate for copper cable enterprises rose to 59.46%, indicating stable production driven by prior orders [2][14]. Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 1.75% to $3,229.0 per ton, with domestic prices at 24,600 CNY per ton. The overall aluminum processing rate recorded a decline to 59.4% [3][15]. - Domestic aluminum oxide production capacity remains high, but the operating rate decreased by 1.66% to 77.31% [3][15]. Precious Metals - Gold prices increased significantly due to geopolitical tensions, with a notable rise in SPDR gold holdings remaining stable at 1,086.53 tons [4][16]. - The report discusses the implications of U.S. monetary policy on gold price fluctuations, particularly in light of recent geopolitical developments [4][16]. Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide rose to 748,700 CNY per ton, reflecting a strong demand outlook. The report notes a 7% year-on-year increase in rare earth permanent magnet exports [5][32][34]. - The report suggests that the rare earth sector is poised for growth, driven by easing export restrictions and increased global demand [5][32][34]. Tungsten - Tungsten prices increased by 12.99%, with strategic reserves being a focus in the U.S. market, indicating a potential for continued price support [5][36]. Tin - Tin prices showed a slight decrease of 0.03%, but the report maintains a positive long-term outlook due to supply constraints from Indonesia and Myanmar [5][37]. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 7.15% to 171,000 CNY per ton, with production slightly declining. The report highlights a robust demand outlook despite recent price fluctuations [5][57]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices increased by 1.8% to 445,000 CNY per ton, with supply constraints expected to support price stability in the near term [5][58].

Core Viewpoint - Rare earth elements are critical resources for modern technology and national security, with China maintaining a dominant position in the global market due to its complete industrial chain from mining to manufacturing [1][5]. Group 1: U.S. Policy and Challenges - The U.S. recently ended its support for a "price floor" policy for rare earths, reflecting economic fragility and political challenges [1]. - The Trump administration's efforts to support the domestic rare earth industry through price protection failed due to a lack of funding and technology [3]. - The U.S. rare earth supply chain is fragmented, with most raw materials being sent to China for processing, undermining any potential price protection [3]. Group 2: International Cooperation and Implications - G7 countries aimed to counter China's rare earth advantage through collaboration, but U.S. policy changes have jeopardized these efforts [5]. - The EU is pushing for a "Critical Raw Materials Act," while Japan and Canada seek autonomy in rare earth production, but U.S. policy shifts complicate these initiatives [3][5]. Group 3: China's Competitive Advantages - China's success in the rare earth sector is attributed to its comprehensive industrial chain and technological barriers in refining and manufacturing [5]. - The flexibility of China's market allowed it to quickly adapt to the U.S. policy changes, reinforcing its dominant position in the international market [7]. - The collapse of the U.S. price floor policy within six months has altered the global rare earth market dynamics, emphasizing China's rising influence [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The strategic value of rare earths will continue to grow with technological advancements and market demand changes [7]. - China must focus on consolidating and expanding its rare earth industry while enhancing technological capabilities for sustainable growth [7]. - Other countries, particularly G7 members, face the challenge of redefining their strategic direction and long-term industrial planning after losing U.S. support [7].

Group 1 - The Trump administration has acquired a 10% stake in a U.S. rare earth company and provided up to $1.3 billion in priority secured loans, indicating a strategic focus on critical minerals [1][6] - The U.S. aims to enhance domestic production capabilities and create a self-sufficient rare earth supply chain through significant investments in local companies [1][6] - The administration is also working to build an international coalition to exclude China from the critical minerals supply chain, leveraging G7 and other multilateral mechanisms [1][7] Group 2 - The U.S. is responding to China's dominance in the critical minerals supply chain by restructuring its market and industry ecosystem to reduce reliance on Chinese imports [3][10] - A presidential proclamation has been signed to classify dependence on foreign critical minerals as a national security threat, initiating a 180-day negotiation window for trade agreements with global suppliers [3][5] - The U.S. plans to implement a price floor mechanism during negotiations to protect the interests of American and allied mining sectors [3][5] Group 3 - The U.S. has invested in at least six critical mineral companies since last year, indicating a trend of government intervention in the sector to bolster domestic production [6][12] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary convened a meeting with G7 and allied nations to discuss the security of critical mineral supply chains, aiming to translate plans into actionable policies [7][9] - The upcoming ministerial meeting is intended to further coordinate policies and strengthen the so-called "friend-shoring" of critical mineral supply chains [7][9] Group 4 - The U.S. has a 100% net import dependency on 12 critical minerals, with over 50% dependency on 29 others, highlighting the urgent need to revitalize domestic production capabilities [10][12] - The establishment of a "Critical Minerals Production Alliance" aims to enhance U.S. processing capabilities and create an independent supply chain outside of China [12][16] - The strategic value of critical minerals has been elevated, with the U.S. seeking to gain leverage in the geopolitical landscape by reducing vulnerabilities in its supply chains [14][16]

- Quantitative model and factor construction - Model name: None mentioned - Factor name: None mentioned - Model backtesting results - None mentioned - Factor backtesting results - None mentioned

Group 1 - The company, Northern Rare Earth (600111), is currently in the process of establishing a financial sharing center, which is not yet operational [1]