为了解决这一问题，美国已经投入1.2亿美元，计划在2025年恢复稀土生产，目标是实现年产2000吨。然而，与中国年产39万吨的庞大规模相比，这一目标 显得微不足道。更为关键的是，美国缺乏足够的下游加工能力，即便能够开采出稀土原料，仍然需要依赖中国的精炼技术和产能。这一结构性短板使得西方 国家在短期内很难摆脱对中国稀土供应链的依赖。 与此同时，巴西、越南等新兴稀土生产国也开始崭露头角，成为供应链多元化的重要一环。巴西拥有全球第二大的稀土储量，达到2100万吨，但其稀土开采 和生产还处于起步阶段，未来潜力巨大。越南则凭借与中国接壤的地理优势和相对较低的开采成本，可能成为重要的替代供应源，尤其是在中长期内对全球 稀土市场的影响力将逐步增强。 在全球十大稀土储量国家中，中国依然占据主导地位，储量高达4400万吨，占全球储量的近50%。中国的稀土生产和精炼加工能力稳居全球之首，进一步巩 固了其在全球市场中的核心地位。 全球稀土储量的分布极为集中，这也引发了一场全球范围内对这一关键战略资源的争夺。目前，中国拥有全球最大、最集中的稀土储量，达到4400万吨，占 全球储量的近一半，并且掌控着69%的产量和超过90%的精炼加工 ...

Group 1 - The ongoing competition between the US and China in the rare earth sector has been intense, with the US military industry heavily reliant on Chinese rare earths, making it difficult to find alternative sources [1] - In early 2025, China implemented stricter export license management for seven categories of heavy rare earths, prioritizing national security and industrial interests, which caught the US military industry off guard [1][4] - The US is accelerating its supply chain diversification efforts, seeking sources in Australia and Canada, but these projects are costly and time-consuming, making it challenging to address immediate needs [1] Group 2 - Pakistan has emerged as a new hope for the US due to its rich rare earth resources, although it has long struggled with funding and technological development [1][3] - In August 2025, the US and Pakistan began discussions on critical mineral cooperation, with a focus on a $1 billion investment in the copper-gold mine in Balochistan [3] - A $500 million agreement was signed, outlining a three-step plan to export light rare earths, improve mining infrastructure, and facilitate technology transfer to establish a complete industrial chain in Pakistan [3] Group 3 - China's rare earth policy remains stable, with export license controls implemented in 2023 and further refined in 2025, emphasizing dynamic adjustment and green development [4] - The cooperation with the US is seen as a pragmatic survival strategy for Pakistan, providing short-term cash flow and aiding in industrial upgrades amid significant economic pressures [4][5] - While the agreement offers the US some relief in its supply chain challenges, it does not fully resolve the issues, particularly for the F-35 and drone production that heavily depend on rare earth magnets [5]

【文/观察者网 齐倩】 中方出台稀土出口管制措施后，美西方深感被"卡脖子"，纷纷砸钱发展"非中国"供应链。 "中国赢得了稀土竞赛，后续能保持领先地位吗？"8月28日，英国《金融时报》以此为题刊文，并回答指 出，西方努力建立竞争性供应链并打破中方主导地位，将面临成本和规模方面的挑战。 "我们的技术进步将巩固中国在稀土定价权上的地位，"文章援引一名中国稀土从业者的话称，"在可预见的 未来，国际市场仍将依赖中国的稀土供应链。" 文章写道，国际分析师和业内人士普遍同意上述评估，即打破中国的控制将充满挑战。他们认为，得益于 数十年的国家规划和战略收购，中国已成为稀土价值链每个阶段的最低成本生产者，而多数西方公司的信 条一直是"不惜一切代价追求最低成本"。 今年早些时候，中方出台稀土出口管制措施。此举符合国际通行做法，但美西方企业纷纷哀号"稀土荒"， 将之歪曲为"贸易战武器"。目前，中方已恢复稀土供应，但仍严格管理出口以防止海外囤积。 《金融时报》认为，中国对稀土的掌控影响了全球贸易谈判。对美国，中方通过出口管制迫使特朗普政府 做出让步。欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩则抱怨连连，无端声称中方的主导地位导致欧洲企业破产。 中国在全 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's control over the rare earth supply chain provides it with leverage in the trade war with the United States, as it dominates global production and processing of rare earth elements [1][3]. Group 1: China's Dominance in Rare Earths - China accounts for approximately 60% of global rare earth mining, over 85% of processing, and more than 90% of permanent magnet production, placing the U.S. and other Western countries at a disadvantage [1]. - The complexity of establishing alternative supply chains is highlighted, with experts noting that Western countries may struggle to close the gap with China even in the long term [1][3]. Group 2: International Efforts to Diversify Supply Chains - The U.S. and its allies have been seeking to diversify rare earth supplies for years, but these efforts face significant challenges, including the need for long-term investments and technical expertise [3][4]. - Initiatives such as the "Mineral Security Partnership" (MSP) and G7's new action plan on critical minerals have been launched, but analysts believe these diplomatic efforts may not be sufficient to challenge China's dominance [3][4]. Group 3: Emerging Players in the Rare Earth Market - Developing countries with rare earth resources, such as Vietnam, are becoming key players in the competition for rare earths, with Vietnam signing agreements with the U.S. to enhance its rare earth industry [4]. - Myanmar is also noted as a significant rare earth producer, with discussions in the U.S. government about changing policies to reduce China's influence in the global rare earth supply chain [5]. Group 4: Impact on U.S. Defense Industry - The U.S. defense industry is experiencing significant price increases for materials needed for military applications, with some prices rising to five times their pre-restriction levels [6]. - The dependency on Chinese rare earths is underscored, as U.S. companies struggle to find economically viable alternatives for certain rare elements [6]. Group 5: China's Export Control Policies - China's recent export control measures are aimed at regulating rather than prohibiting exports, promoting compliance and trade rather than severing commercial ties [7]. - The emphasis is on understanding and adapting to China's governance regulations to ensure the continued availability of critical resources for global technological advancement [7].

据报道，2025年6月，印度政府一纸禁令突然切断了流向日本的稀土资源。 东京措手不及，全球稀土供应链神经再度紧绷。这场看似寻常的贸易暂停背后，藏着日本一个持续十三年的战略幻觉破灭的巨响——他们 宣称摆脱中国稀土依赖的"印度样本"，原来不过是建在流沙之上的空中楼阁。 时间拉回2010年，中日关系风波引发中国对日稀土出口收紧。 日本市场稀土价格瞬间飙升20倍，汽车生产线停摆，电子工厂静默，整个工业体系濒临窒息。这场剧痛让日本砸下1058亿日元巨资全球寻 矿，誓言摆脱对华依赖。当印度以"全球第五大稀土储量国"（约690万吨）的姿态出现，日本如获至宝。运输距离近、承诺供应稳，印度 被描绘成完美的替代者。2012年合作协议墨迹未干，日本丰田通商甚至在印度设厂加工，构建起一条看似独立于中国的供应链。 印度防长辛格（资料图） 十三年间，日本心安理得地享用着"印度稀土"，自认战略突围成功。 然而残酷的真相被2025年中国的出口管制政策无情撕开。 印度表面拥有可观储量，其2022年实际产量却仅有2900吨，不到中国21万吨年产量零头。更关键的是，印度极度缺乏稀土提炼能力。所谓 的"印度稀土"，实则是印度从中国进口原料，经简单转 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government is taking significant steps to reduce its reliance on China for rare earth minerals by investing in domestic production, exemplified by the $400 million investment in MP Materials, the largest rare earth producer in the U.S. [1][5] Group 1: U.S. Government Actions - The Pentagon agreed to purchase $400 million in convertible preferred stock from MP Materials, making it the largest shareholder [1] - The U.S. aims to stimulate domestic exploration and production of critical minerals to compete with China [1][5] - The investment reflects a broader strategy to break the bottleneck in critical mineral supply chains [1] Group 2: Industry Challenges - Despite having rare earth resources, the U.S. faces challenges in attracting investors willing to take risks in the mining sector [1][5] - The rare earth market lacks the mature financial structures seen in oil and other commodities, making it difficult for companies to secure funding [4] - Many U.S. rare earth companies trade on smaller exchanges in Canada or Australia, indicating limited domestic investment interest [1][5] Group 3: Market Dynamics - China dominates the global rare earth market, accounting for over 60% of production and 92% of processing capacity [4] - The U.S. Geological Survey reported that 70% of rare earth compounds and metals imported by the U.S. came from China between 2020 and 2023 [4] - Recent Chinese export controls on rare earths have prompted U.S. companies to seek alternative supply sources [4][5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The establishment of new mining projects in the U.S. is expected to take at least 10 to 20 years and require substantial investment, potentially in the trillions [8] - The industry faces significant hurdles, including a lack of skilled labor and expertise in processing rare earth materials [8] - Other countries are also attempting to diversify their rare earth supply chains, but they face challenges in terms of time, cost, and human capital [6][8]

Core Insights - China's Ministry of Commerce officially responded to international concerns regarding heavy rare earth export controls on June 7, 2025, highlighting the strategic resource management as a core issue in great power competition [1][3] - The response comes amid a global robotics industry growth rate of 18% and a penetration rate of over 40% for new energy vehicles, indicating China's proactive role in the restructuring of global industrial chains [1] Summary by Categories National Security - Heavy rare earth elements like dysprosium and terbium are critical materials for hypersonic flight guidance systems and quantum communication devices, confirming their strategic importance as recognized by the EU's Critical Raw Materials Act and the US Defense Production Act [3] - The Ministry of Commerce emphasized the "dual-use property control," aligning with the G7's revised Wassenaar Arrangement, which includes 12 new rare earth control clauses [3] - In 2024, China's export volume of rare earth permanent magnet materials decreased by 9.3% year-on-year, while domestic consumption in high-end manufacturing increased by 22%, indicating a trend towards strategic resource allocation [3] International Responsibility - China has established the world's first rare earth full lifecycle traceability system, enabling digital regulation from mining to terminal export [3] - In 2024, the issuance of compliant rare earth export licenses remained at 35%-40% of annual production, supporting stable supply chains for countries like Japan and Germany in the electric vehicle sector and aiding the EU's hydrogen strategy for 2035 [3] - This "precise supply" model avoids chaotic competition from emerging rare earth producers like Australia and Myanmar, providing an Eastern solution for international non-proliferation systems [3] Diplomatic Strategy - In response to the US-Japan-Europe alliance's call for "diversification of rare earth supply chains," China has demonstrated diplomatic wisdom by reaching a framework agreement on rare earth processing technology transfer with Germany during the Munich Security Conference in May 2025 [4] - The China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Agreement negotiations have added special clauses for rare earth cooperation, indicating a structured approach to international collaboration [4] - In 2024, China's exports of deep-processed rare earth products to member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization increased by 17%, while exports of primary products decreased by 24%, reflecting a structural adjustment that maintains core technological advantages [4] Global Supply Chain Dynamics - As a stabilizer in the global rare earth supply chain, China's control measures are seen as a necessary choice in the "resilience era" of globalization, balancing national security and international responsibilities [4] - With a resource reserve share of 37% but accounting for 90% of global processing capacity, China's policies are positioned to meet dual demands [4] - The establishment of a compliance review system may become an important reference for global strategic resource management as new regulatory standards from the International Atomic Energy Agency and enhanced ESG requirements from multinational corporations emerge [4]

Core Insights - The report titled "2025 Rare Earth Industry Chain Research - Sino-US-EU Supply Chain Game and Geopolitical Competition Leverage" analyzes the rare earth industry, highlighting China's dominance in global supply and the geopolitical tensions driving Western nations to diversify their supply chains [2][12]. Group 1: Overview of the Rare Earth Industry - Rare earth elements consist of 17 metallic chemical elements, categorized into light, medium, and heavy rare earths, and are crucial in high-tech industries [12][13]. - China holds the largest reserves and production capacity of rare earths globally, controlling approximately 70% of the world's production and 90% of refining capacity [12][28]. Group 2: Global Supply and Resource Distribution - As of 2024, global rare earth reserves exceed 90 million tons, with China accounting for 44 million tons, representing about 48% of the total [22][23]. - The global production of rare earths in 2024 is projected to reach 390,000 tons, with China producing 270,000 tons, maintaining a dominant market share of 69% [25][28]. Group 3: China's Resource Management and Industry Structure - China implements strict total control over rare earth mining and refining, with production quotas assigned to major state-owned enterprises [34][40]. - The restructuring of China's rare earth industry has led to the formation of four major groups, enhancing resource management and market concentration [37][38]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Growth - The market for rare earth functional materials is expanding rapidly, with significant growth in sectors such as electric vehicles and renewable energy [12][44]. - From 2018 to 2023, the revenue from the rare earth refining and separation industry has increased, with the functional materials market also showing robust growth [2][44]. Group 5: Geopolitical Implications and Supply Chain Diversification - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with Western nations seeking to reduce reliance on Chinese rare earths by developing alternative supply chains in countries like the US, Australia, and Canada [12][33]. - The US has invested over $439 million since 2020 to support domestic rare earth supply chains, aiming to establish a complete supply chain by 2030 [33].