1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content 2. Core View of the Report - Since the US launched a tariff trade war at the beginning of April, the rubber market has declined significantly. However, considering the fundamentals, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. The supply side is at the beginning of the new rubber - tapping season, and it will take time for production to increase. The domestic demand side shows strong tire开工, and the inventory growth in Qingdao is slowing down. The technical price has reached the lower limit of the operating center in the first half of last year, and the probability of further decline in the short - term is low [4][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Southeast Asia is about to start tapping, and domestic production is gradually increasing - In terms of supply from rubber - producing countries, according to ANRPC revised data, the rubber production in January 2025 continued the high - yield state of the fourth quarter of last year, with a year - on - year increase of 1.09 million tons. Although the output decreased rapidly in February compared with January, it still had a year - on - year increase of 750,000 tons. The supply during the low - yield season this year is looser than that of last year. It is expected that the data for March and April will also maintain a year - on - year positive state. - Overseas, after the Songkran Festival in Southeast Asian main producing areas, rubber tapping is expected to start gradually. In Thailand, some areas in the north and northeast are in trial tapping, and the south is expected to start normal tapping in late April and increase production in mid - May. In Vietnam, large - scale tapping has not started due to the dry season, and only individual state - owned farms have started trial tapping. - In China, the Yunnan production area is in the transition period of tapping, with slow growth of latex output. The Hainan production area is in the initial stage of tapping, with low overall latex output. Most processing plants have not officially started work, and only state - owned factories have started to purchase latex. It is expected that large - scale tapping will gradually start at the end of April or early May [5]. 3.2 Downstream tire start - up is strong and stable, and the terminal automobile market had a good start in the first quarter - In terms of downstream tire start - up, the overall performance in the first quarter of this year was good, especially in the second half after the Spring Festival. Although it has declined slightly recently due to the US tariff trade war, the start - up rate is still at a relatively high level. Currently, the all - steel tire start - up rate is maintained at 66.15%, and the semi - steel tire start - up rate is maintained at 78.52%, both higher than the best level in the second half of last year. - In terms of tire production, due to the high start - up rate in the first quarter, the tire output in the first two months increased by 15.2% year - on - year, reaching 176.5 million pieces. In terms of tire exports, the exports in January and February both achieved positive growth. Although the export volume in February decreased significantly compared with January, it still had a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. - In the terminal automobile market, in March, the production and sales of automobiles increased by 11.9% and 8.2% year - on - year respectively, and by 42.9% and 37% month - on - month respectively. In the first quarter, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles increased by 14.5% and 11.2% year - on - year respectively. Among them, the production and sales of passenger cars increased significantly, while the performance of commercial vehicles was slightly weaker. The new energy vehicle market continued to heat up, with significant year - on - year and month - on - month increases [8][12][16]. 3.3 The growth of Qingdao inventory is slowing down, and the increase of futures warehouse receipts is stabilizing - According to the domestic inventory data, since the inventory in Qingdao started to increase again in November last year, the inventory has accumulated to a relatively high level. The inventory in Qingdao has increased from 413,000 tons at the beginning of November to 621,000 tons currently, with a cumulative increase of 50.36%. However, the growth rate has slowed down significantly recently, especially in the past two weeks, the increase has been less than 0.5%. - In terms of domestic futures inventory, since March, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber have continued to increase slightly, and the warehouse receipts of 20 - standard rubber futures, which had decreased before, have also increased again. Currently, the increase of Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts has slowed down, with the total amount exceeding 200,000 tons, and the 20 - standard rubber futures warehouse receipts have increased to 77,700 tons, with a steep increase rate [18][20]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - Since the US launched a tariff trade war at the beginning of April, the rubber market has declined severely. The Shanghai rubber has broken through the high - level operating center since the fourth quarter of last year and reached the lower limit of the operating center in the first half of last year. The maximum phased decline this month was close to 2,900 yuan/ton for Shanghai rubber and more than 2,800 yuan/ton for 20 - standard rubber futures. - The tariff trade war has had a large short - term impact on the confidence of the industrial chain. The US tariff on China has increased to 125%. Although the rubber market has declined significantly recently, there is no need to be overly pessimistic from the perspective of fundamentals. The market may gradually digest the negative news around the 14,000 - yuan mark and wait for the production increase in each production area in the new rubber - tapping season and the further development of the US tariff trade war [24][25][26].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: Production is gradually recovering to a high level, and the weekly output has returned to around 73 - 740,000 tons. There has been a slight reduction in inventory, but with the increase in production, there is still expected to be inventory pressure. The market for soda ash remains under pressure due to the lag in photovoltaic resumption, and the futures market is expected to continue its weak oscillation in the future [1]. - Glass: The spot market is weak, and the macro - level is bearish, which jointly puts pressure on glass prices. The 05 contract is affected by the expansion of the delivery warehouse in Hubei and is showing a weak performance. The 09 contract has a relatively low price, and the market has expectations for stimulus policies, but there is currently no short - term driver [1]. Industrial Silicon The spot price of industrial silicon continues to decline, and the futures price has reached a new low. Supply has a slight increase, demand remains weak, and downstream prices are showing a downward trend, which drags down the price of industrial silicon. There are concerns about inventory accumulation, and the price fluctuation range is further adjusted to 8,500 - 10,500 yuan/ton [3]. Polysilicon The polysilicon futures price has fallen sharply, and the current spot price is at a significant premium to the futures price. There is support from downstream demand in April, but polysilicon inventory has not continued to decline, and downstream prices are starting to weaken. The futures price is expected to have limited room for further decline [4]. Natural Rubber Domestic rubber - producing areas are entering the new tapping season, and overseas areas are also gradually starting to tap after the Songkran Festival. The cost support for rubber prices has weakened. On the demand side, the inventory of semi - steel tires continues to increase, and enterprises are reducing production to control inventory. Short - term rubber prices are expected to face significant pressure [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Prices and Spreads - Glass: Spot prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The 2505 contract decreased by 0.69% to 1144 yuan/ton, and the 2509 contract decreased by 2.07% to 1181 yuan/ton. The 05 basis increased by 8.16% [1]. - Soda ash: Spot prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The 2505 contract decreased by 0.60% to 1331 yuan/ton, and the 2509 contract decreased by 0.67% to 1368 yuan/ton. The 05 basis increased by 3.79% [1]. Supply and Demand - Soda ash: The operating rate increased from 82.38% to 88.05%, and the weekly output increased by 3.46% to 737,700 tons. The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [1]. - Glass: There is no significant change in the main supply - related data [1]. Inventory - Glass: The inventory in the market decreased by 0.84% to 65,203,000 weight boxes [1]. - Soda ash: The factory inventory decreased by 0.49% to 1.693 million tons, and the delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 3.08% to 402,700 tons [1]. Real Estate Data New construction area decreased by 2.88% year - on - year, construction area decreased by 20.51% year - on - year, completion area increased by 5.27% year - on - year, and sales area increased by 1.81% year - on - year [1]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis The prices of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon, East China SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon all decreased, while the basis increased [3]. Monthly Fundamental Data In March, the national industrial silicon output increased by 18.20% to 3.422 million tons, the output in Xinjiang increased by 26.57% to 2.108 million tons, the output in Yunnan decreased by 14.58% to 123,000 tons, and the output in Sichuan increased by 170.59% to 46,000 tons. The national operating rate increased by 13.29% to 57.80% [3]. Inventory Changes Xinjiang factory inventory increased by 4.42% to 226,700 tons, Yunnan factory inventory decreased by 11.40% to 24,100 tons, social inventory increased by 0.66% to 612,000 tons, and warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.55% to 349,000 tons [3]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis The average prices of N - type re -投料, P - type cauliflower - like material, and granular silicon remained unchanged. The basis of N - type material and cauliflower - like material increased [4]. Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads The PS2506 contract decreased by 0.54% to 40,265 yuan/ton. Some inter - month spreads changed significantly, such as the PS2506 - PS2507 spread increasing by 91.50% [4]. Weekly and Monthly Fundamental Data In March, the polysilicon output increased by 6.66% to 96,100 tons. In February, the import volume decreased by 29.29% to 23,000 tons, the export volume decreased by 72.88% to 16,000 tons, and the net export volume decreased by 130.20% to - 8,000 tons [4]. Inventory Changes Polysilicon inventory increased by 3.39% to 244,000 tons, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 8.37% to 19.15 GW [4]. Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber decreased by 0.68% to 14,650 yuan/ton, and the whole - latex basis decreased by 62.50%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.69% to 14,350 yuan/ton [5]. Inter - month Spreads The 9 - 1 spread increased by 7.06%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 21.47%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 138.10% [5]. Fundamental Data In February, the production in Thailand decreased by 37.99% to 3.464 million tons, in Indonesia decreased by 0.50% to 1.976 million tons, and in India decreased by 31.48% to 740,000 tons. The operating rate of semi - steel tires decreased by 3.23% to 78.52%, and the operating rate of all - steel tires decreased by 0.37% to 66.15% [5]. Inventory Changes The bonded area inventory increased by 0.13% to 620,670 tons, and the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE increased by 49.13% to 77,717 tons [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The recent domestic raw material supply is abundant, prices are weak, and cost support is insufficient. Although there are maintenance plans for two butadiene plants in mid - late April, the supply of butadiene is expected to decline, but the simultaneous maintenance of downstream butadiene rubber offsets some of the support brought by the maintenance. The inventory of butadiene rubber production enterprises decreased slightly last week, but some enterprises had inventory accumulation pressure. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week, especially for semi - steel tires. The tariff policy has led to concerns about trade contraction, which will cause the futures price of synthetic rubber to fall. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 12,555 yuan/ton, a decrease of 615 yuan; the position of the main contract was 26,574 lots, a decrease of 2,132 lots; the net position of the top 20 in futures was - 6 lots, unchanged; the price difference between April and May of synthetic rubber was 805 yuan/ton, an increase of 770 yuan; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 9,440 tons, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical was 13,550 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 200 - 250 yuan. The basis of synthetic rubber was 445 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan. The price of Brent crude oil was 65.58 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 4.56 dollars; the price of naphtha CFR Japan was 845 dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 845 dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 dollars; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1,340 dollars/ton, a decrease of 31.75 dollars; the price of WTI crude oil was 61.99 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 4.96 dollars; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 11,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan. The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 13.94 million tons/week, an increase of 0.01 million tons; the capacity utilization rate was 75.37%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 30,800 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 47.34%, an increase of 1.22 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of butadiene rubber was 11.18 million tons, a decrease of 1.81 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate was 58.4%, a decrease of 5.77 percentage points. The weekly production profit was - 236 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan; the social inventory was 3.15 million tons, a decrease of 0.07 million tons; the manufacturer's inventory was 25,750 tons, a decrease of 230 tons; the trader's inventory was 5,760 tons, a decrease of 420 tons. The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 81.75%, a decrease of 1.24 percentage points; the operating rate of full - steel tires was 66.52%, a decrease of 1.59 percentage points. The monthly output of full - steel tires was 10.6 million pieces, an increase of 2.32 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 48.1 million pieces, an increase of 3.25 million pieces. The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong were 40.98 days, a decrease of 1.29 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 43.28 days, a decrease of 0.4 days [2] Industry News - As of April 2, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 3.15 million tons, a decrease of 0.07 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.02%. After the maintenance of some private plants in North and East China, the inventory level decreased, but some production enterprises had inventory accumulation pressure. As of April 3, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 75.81%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.38 percentage points, a year - on - year decrease of 5.07 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.28%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 percentage points, a year - on - year decrease of 2.78 percentage points. Semi - steel tire enterprises had high shipment pressure, and new orders were less than expected, so some enterprises reduced production. Most full - steel tire enterprises had stable production, and some adjusted production due to inventory pressure [2]

Group 1: Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View It is expected that rubber prices will be under pressure in the short term, but considering the rubber supply cycle and cost support, one can try to go long with a light position in the range of 16,000 - 16,500 yuan, and pay attention to the weather and tree conditions in the producing areas [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex decreased by 0.31%, the basis of whole latex decreased by 24.19%, and the price of Thai standard mixed rubber remained unchanged. The price of cup rubber decreased by 2.35%, and the price of glue remained unchanged. The price of natural rubber blocks in Xishuangbanna decreased by 1.36%, and the price of glue remained unchanged [1]. - **Inter - monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 2.49%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 18.75% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, Thailand's rubber production decreased by 37.99%, Indonesia's decreased by 0.50%, India's decreased by 31.48%, and China's production in December decreased by 51.44%. The weekly tire开工率 of semi - steel tires decreased by 0.12%, and that of all - steel tires decreased by 0.96%. In December, domestic tire production increased by 2.04%. In February, tire exports decreased by 30.93%, and natural rubber imports decreased by 14.50% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: Bonded area inventory increased by 0.50%, and the futures inventory of natural rubber in the factory warehouse of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 8.91%. The inbound and outbound rates of dry glue in bonded warehouses and general trade warehouses in Qingdao have different degrees of change [1]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View For soda ash, it is expected that the futures price will continue to be weakly volatile without positive support. For glass, considering the low absolute price, most enterprises are in a loss state, and there is an expected seasonal recovery in demand, so a low - buying strategy can be adopted for near - month contracts [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: The prices of glass in North China, Central China, and the 2505 and 2509 contracts increased, while the prices in East China and South China remained unchanged. The 05 basis decreased by 74.58% [3]. - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: The price of soda ash in North China decreased by 3.13%, while the prices in other regions remained unchanged. The prices of the 2505 and 2509 contracts increased, and the 05 basis decreased by 28.63% [3]. - **Supply**: In March, the soda ash开工率 increased by 5.82%, and the weekly output increased by 5.81%. The float glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.32%, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [3]. - **Inventory**: In March, the glass factory inventory decreased by 3.52%, the soda ash factory inventory decreased by 3.42%, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 1.16%. The number of days of soda ash inventory in glass factories remained unchanged [3]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year changes in new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real estate are - 2.88%, - 20.51%, 5.27%, and 1.81% respectively [3]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Although the industrial silicon market still faces high inventory and warehouse receipt pressure, the production cuts of major large - scale enterprises will help balance supply and demand and raise the price center. The price fluctuation range is 9,500 - 11,000 yuan/ton. If production cuts lead to inventory reduction, the price center will move up, but the upside space is limited [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Spot Price and Basis of the Main Contract**: The prices of various types of industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the basis decreased slightly [5]. - **Inter - monthly Spread**: The 2504 - 2505 spread increased by 27.27%, the 2505 - 2506 spread decreased by 50.00%, and the spreads of other contracts had different degrees of change [5]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In March, the national industrial silicon production increased by 18.20%, Xinjiang's increased by 26.57%, Yunnan's decreased by 14.58%, and Sichuan's increased by 170.59%. The开工率 of the national and Xinjiang increased, while that of Yunnan decreased slightly, and Sichuan's increased significantly. The production of organic silicon DMC decreased by 5.81%, the production of polysilicon increased by 6.66%, the production of aluminum alloy decreased by 4.00%, and the export volume of industrial silicon decreased by 15.82% [5]. - **Inventory Change**: The factory inventory in Xinjiang and Yunnan decreased, the social inventory increased by 2.20%, the warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.08%, and the non - warehouse receipt inventory increased by 5.49% [5]. Group 4: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The polysilicon futures price is strongly volatile. The current price has limited downside space, and with the support of warehouse receipt demand, long positions at 42,000 - 43,000 yuan/ton can be held [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of N - type polysilicon, cauliflower - type polysilicon, and granular silicon remained unchanged. The basis of N - type material decreased by 6.85%, and the basis of cauliflower - type material decreased by 250.00%. The prices of various silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained unchanged [6]. - **Futures Price and Inter - monthly Spread**: The PS2506 price increased by 0.23%. The PS2506 - PS2507 spread decreased by 5.51%, the PS2507 - PS2508 spread increased by 90.00%, and the spreads of other contracts had different degrees of change [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: The weekly silicon wafer production decreased by 9.30%, and the average cost of the polysilicon industry decreased by 0.38%. In March, the polysilicon production increased by 6.66%. In February, the polysilicon import volume increased by 35.09%, the export volume increased by 43.18%, and the net export volume decreased by 18.28%. In March, the silicon wafer production increased by 5.05%. In February, the silicon wafer import volume increased by 139.15%, the export volume remained unchanged, the net export volume decreased by 11.93%, and the demand decreased by 14.85% [6]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory decreased by 2.37%, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 1.02% [6].