Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Strong Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from strong elasticity in performance under the "anti-involution" trend in the industry, with key indicators approaching those of industry leaders [1][3] - The market share gap between the company and the leading competitor is gradually narrowing, with the company achieving the second-largest market share in the industry in 2023 [1][10] - The company's single-ticket net profit margin is closing in on that of its main competitor, with a significant reduction in the profit gap [2][15] Summary by Sections Market Position and Performance - The company surpassed Yunda to become the second-largest player in the industry in 2023, maintaining a business volume growth rate higher than the industry average [1][10] - The market share difference between the company and Zhongtong decreased from 6.8 percentage points in 2023 to 3.5 percentage points in Q2 2025 [1][10] - In Q2 2025, the company's e-commerce express business growth rate was 21.8%, outperforming the industry average of 17.3% [1][14] Profitability and Cost Management - The difference in single-ticket net profit (excluding non-recurring items) between the company and Zhongtong has narrowed to less than 0.1 yuan [2][15] - In Q2 2025, the company's single-ticket net profit decreased by 22.8%, the smallest decline among major competitors [16] - The company's cost efficiency has improved, with the single-ticket transportation and sorting costs decreasing significantly over the years [29][31] Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The report highlights the potential for price and profit improvement in the industry, supported by historical trends from 2021 to 2022 [3][40] - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 43.6 billion yuan in 2025, with a target price of 25.4 yuan, representing a potential upside of approximately 37% from the current price [48] - The report anticipates that the company will benefit from price elasticity as the industry moves away from "involution" competition [48]

公司发布2025中报，二季度单季公司完成业务量98.47亿件，同比增长16.5%，市场份额19.5%。公司Q2 调整后净利润20.53亿元。该行预计下半年行业及公司盈利情况将有好转。随着反内卷环境的形成，公 司调整业务量指引，并将战略重心转向质量优先，预计下半年的增量激励会有所下调，激励的流向也会 更加合理，虽然业务量增速中枢预计会有所下降，但单票盈利水平会相应回升。 东兴证券发布研报称，维持中通快递-W(02057)"强烈推荐"评级，预计公司2025-2027年归母净利润分别 为88.5、102.2与115.3亿，对应PE分别为13.0X、11.2X和10.0X。公司作为通达系龙头的地位稳固，能够 在价格战中维持相对稳定的盈利水平，具备较强的安全边际。 ...

公司发布2025中报，二季度单季公司完成业务量98.47亿件，同比增长16.5%，市场份额19.5%。公司Q2 调整后净利润20.53亿元。该行预计下半年行业及公司盈利情况将有好转。随着反内卷环境的形成，公 司调整业务量指引，并将战略重心转向质量优先，预计下半年的增量激励会有所下调，激励的流向也会 更加合理，虽然业务量增速中枢预计会有所下降，但单票盈利水平会相应回升。 智通财经APP获悉，东兴证券发布研报称，维持中通快递-W(02057)"强烈推荐"评级，预计公司2025- 2027年归母净利润分别为88.5、102.2与115.3亿，对应PE分别为13.0X、11.2X和10.0X。公司作为通达系 龙头的地位稳固，能够在价格战中维持相对稳定的盈利水平，具备较强的安全边际。 ...

Group 1 - The "anti-involution bull" is seen as a crucial opportunity for the market to switch between the two halves of the bull market, with the first half driven by financial re-inflation and the second half by real asset re-inflation, leading to a return of blue-chip stocks driven by both valuation and performance [2][11][12] - The recent policy shift from the central government marks a significant turning point for "anti-involution," which is expected to drive inflation recovery and facilitate the transition between the two halves of the bull market [2][11][14] - The improvement in local government finances has provided the central government with the confidence to implement policies effectively, as evidenced by the recovery in land auction activities and the narrowing decline in land transfer revenues [2][11][14] Group 2 - The recent two months have seen a strengthening of policy determination from the top down, alongside an increase in corporate willingness to cooperate from the bottom up, alleviating previous market concerns regarding the execution of "anti-involution" policies [3][28][29] - The central government's intervention has shifted from industry association-led self-regulation to more direct involvement, with significant policy announcements aimed at curbing irrational competition in key sectors such as photovoltaics and new energy vehicles [3][29][32] - Corporations, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, have begun to respond positively to "anti-involution" initiatives, with major companies committing to production cuts and inventory control to align with industry-wide efforts [3][33][34] Group 3 - Industries that are expected to benefit from "anti-involution" include glass fiber, coal, energy metals, cement, commercial vehicles, and wind power equipment, identified through various criteria such as state-owned enterprise ratios and industry concentration [3][38] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring price elasticity and tax implications in identifying potential beneficiaries of the "anti-involution" strategy, with a focus on cyclical resource products [3][38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for ZTO Express [5][9]. Core Views - The company reported a Q2 net profit of 2.053 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 26.8%, with a business volume of 9.847 billion pieces, representing a 16.5% increase year-on-year [1]. - The company has adjusted its full-year business volume guidance to 38.8-40.1 billion pieces, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14%-18%, down from the previous guidance of 40.8-42.2 billion pieces [1]. - The report highlights that the company is focusing on quality over quantity in a competitive pricing environment, which has led to a decrease in market share by 0.1 percentage points to 19.5% [1]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - In Q2, the company's single-ticket revenue decreased from 1.24 yuan to 1.18 yuan, primarily due to increased incentives and a decline in average weight [2]. - The single-ticket core cost increased by 8.6% year-on-year to 0.89 yuan, while the core cost (transportation + sorting) decreased by 0.07 yuan [2][3]. - The single-ticket gross profit fell from 0.42 yuan to 0.29 yuan, indicating significant pressure from pricing competition [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 8.85 billion, 10.22 billion, and 11.53 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.0X, 11.2X, and 10.0X [4]. - The company is expected to maintain a relatively stable profit level despite the ongoing price wars, indicating strong safety margins [4]. Company Overview - ZTO Express is a large group company that integrates express delivery, logistics, e-commerce, and printing services, operating a highly scalable network partner model [6]. - The total market capitalization is approximately 120.778 billion HKD, with a circulating market value of 89.595 billion HKD [6].

新华社北京9月11日电题：市场规模稳步拓展，综合运能不断提高——8月份我国快递业发展观察 新华社记者叶昊鸣 8月水果，新鲜正当季。 广东云浮市郁南县，每天约有3000单金煌芒快递发往全国各地；乐昌市的中通网点，高峰期日均寄 递超10000斤黄金柰李；韶关市翁源县，网点单日揽收8000至10000斤鹰嘴桃……中通数据显示，8月以 来，生鲜农产品寄递迎来高峰，以广东地区为例，生鲜类产品发货量较去年同比增长超过10%。 市场规模稳步拓展，综合运能不断提高，我国快递业持续涌现发展活力。 9月11日，国家邮政局发布中国快递发展指数报告，经测算，8月中国快递发展指数为424.9，同比 提升4.4%。其中，发展规模指数为567.4，同比提升11.2%。从分项指标看，预计8月快递业务量将同比 增长约12%，业务收入将同比增长约6%。 河北邯郸与沧州、福建三明、广东揭阳等地投用自动化处理中心，提升区域分拨处理效能；行业自 有航空公司新增"济南—东京""福州—马尼拉"等国际全货机航线……快递企业不断增强自动化处理能 力，持续提升航空运能，进一步加强配送服务能力。 "8月，我国快递业市场规模稳步拓展，综合运能不断提高，航空网络加快 ...

文|《BUG》栏目 罗宁 与此同时，一些韵达快递网点负责人也在网上发声，称经营困难、亏损关店等。有负责人透露，开韵达 快递"两年亏损35万"，最终无奈关店。 这些现象的背后，折射出韵达快递在网络运营、盈利能力和管理模式等方面存在的深层次问题。根据最 新财报，韵达快递上半年营业收入和快递业务量双双增长，但盈利数据却出现"断崖式"下滑——上半年 归属于母公司股东的净利润仅为5.29亿元，同比大幅下滑49.19%；扣除非经常性损益后的净利润4.53亿 元，同比下滑45.60%。其中第二季度单季净利润只有2.08亿元，同比暴跌66.94%。这意味着韵达上半年 的利润几乎"腰斩"。 近日，"桂林韵达倒闭了吗"等相关话题在社交媒体频繁出现，《BUG》栏目了解到，在广西桂林地区的 韵达快递业务出现异常，导致大量货物积压。 异常：部分地区"瘫痪"，快递已囤积 在小红书、抖音等多个社交平台上，"桂林韵达什么情况""桂林韵达倒闭了吗"等相关话题频繁出现。 有用户表示，自己的韵达快递在广西桂林等了十天都没有动静，客服只回复催促但无后续进展。 《BUG》栏目向多位快递被卡住的用户进行了解，发现此次快递涉及的主要是广西桂林地区的韵达快 ...

新华财经北京9月12日电新华财经和面包财经研究员梳理公开资料显示，A股申万行业分类为快递的5家上市公司，2025年上半年合计实现营收2531.53亿元、 归母净利润86.03亿元，同比分别变动9.95%、-0.03%。 图 1：2020H1-2025H1 A股快递上市公司营收及归母净利润 从营收规模来看，2025上半年，顺丰控股实现营收1468.58亿元，排名第一。其次是圆通速递和申通快递，分别实现营业总收入358.83亿元和250.25亿元，分 列第二和第三名。 从增速来看，申通快递的营收增长较快，较2024年同期增长16.02%，其次是德邦股份和圆通速递，较2024年同期分别增长11.43%和10.19%。 上半年，顺丰控股和圆通速递的营收及归母净利润规模居前二。增速方面，5家快递公司的营收均实现快速增长，但净利润表现差异较大，德邦股份、韵达 股份归母净利润下降较为明显。 月度经营数据显示，2025年上半年快递公司的快递业务总量及总收入呈快速增长趋势，但单票收入持续下降，呈现"量增价减"态势。其中，顺丰控股、圆通 速递的6月的单票收入较1月相比均下降超10%。 营收整体增长德邦、韵达净利润下降明显 202 ...

在出口方面，1至8月份，汽车出口429.2万辆。其中，新能源汽车出口153.2万辆，同比增长87.3%。 中国汽车工业协会副秘书长 陈士华：反映出国家政策措施展现显著成效，对汽车消费促进作用明显，且国内和国际两个市场发展比较均衡，新动能也继续 保持活力。 央视网消息：透过数据看活力。9月11日，多部门披露的最新经济数据显示，我国经济发展保持稳中有进良好态势。 1至8月汽车产销量首次均超2000万辆 9月11日，记者从中国汽车工业协会获悉，今年1至8月份，汽车产销量首次双超2000万辆。其中，新能源汽车产销量分别完成962.5万辆和962万辆，同比分 别增长37.3%和36.7%，新能源汽车新车销量达到汽车新车总销量的45.5%。 记者从国家邮政局了解到，8月中国快递发展指数为424.9，同比增长4.4%。8月，随着水果、海鲜、菌菇等特色农产品丰收季的到来，特色农产品寄递量稳 步增长。 可移动生鲜冷藏仓、专业冷链三轮车等设施，以及航空、高铁等运力资源的投入，提升了综合立体冷链运输能力，有效保障了地方特色产品鲜达全国。 我国数字经济核心产业专利授权全球第一 记者在第十四届中国知识产权年会上了解到，2024年，我国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of village-level logistics service stations by China Post in Nanchong, Sichuan, has significantly improved the delivery of packages to rural areas, facilitating cooperation with private express companies to enhance service efficiency and coverage [3]. Group 1: Logistics Service Stations - China Post has created the first batch of village-level logistics service stations in Nanchong, which has enabled unified delivery of packages from various express companies to rural areas [3]. - The Datan Village logistics service station has delivered nearly 10,000 packages in one year, covering over 10,000 people across three administrative villages and one construction site [3]. - As of August this year, 43 standardized logistics service stations have been established across 26 administrative towns in Yingshan County [3]. Group 2: Collaboration with Express Companies - China Post collaborates with private express companies to address the challenges of delivering packages to remote villages, leveraging its extensive delivery network [3]. - The partnership allows for the separate sorting of packages that are difficult to deliver, with China Post handling the final delivery to rural areas [3]. - The cooperation has led to a significant increase in package volume, with the number of packages received at the service station rising from less than 100 to 879 in one year [3]. Group 3: Cost Efficiency and Revenue Generation - The cost for villagers to receive packages through the service station is lower than traditional storage fees, eliminating the need for additional charges [3]. - The logistics service stations also provide a source of income for local businesses, with the owner of a small shop reporting earnings of 400 to 500 yuan per month from package services [3]. - To alleviate delivery pressure, China Post has coordinated with local passenger transport services to utilize excess capacity for package delivery [3].