博原资本管理合伙人及CEO朱璘。受访者供图 开栏语 当时间的刻度指向2026，一个崭新的五年征程即将启幕。 此刻，我们立足承前启后的交汇点，"十四五"即将圆满收官。回顾2025年，在多重压力之下，中国经济 再次走过了"很不平凡"的一年，并展现出强大韧性和活力，成就奠定坚实基础。 刚刚闭幕的中央经济工作会议深刻指出，做好明年经济工作，要"坚持稳中求进工作总基调"，在政策取 向上，"要坚持稳中求进、提质增效"，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实现质的有效 提升和量的合理增长，保持社会和谐稳定，实现"十五五"良好开局。 启新程，当乘势而上，更须砥砺前行。站在"十五五"新程待启的关键时点，如何看待2026年的经济形 势？2026年经济工作怎么干？新京报贝壳财经推出《看2026：十五五·启新程》专题报道，汇聚监管部 门、知名学者和领军企业家，解读政策脉络，洞察趋势变化。2026，我们携手出发。 对企业而言，针对中央经济工作会议提出的持续扩大内需等议题会有哪些举措？2026年有哪些战略发展 目标？新京报贝壳财经记者就此采访了博原资本管理合伙人及CEO朱璘。 新京报贝壳财经：2026年，博原资本在业绩增长、产品 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of rational, value, and long-term investment in the context of China's capital market reforms, particularly focusing on hard technology as a key driver for new productive forces and the opportunities and challenges it faces [1]. Group 1: Event Overview - The "Value and Investment" program, initiated by the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Yicai, aims to enhance the demonstration effect of state-owned enterprises and companies listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, providing a professional platform for accurately conveying investment value [1]. - A roundtable discussion was held during the "2025 Yicai Capital Annual Conference," featuring industry leaders discussing the policy dividends supporting technological innovation and the pathways for hard technology industries to overcome challenges [1]. Group 2: Participants and Contributions - Key participants included Xu Runsheng, Assistant to the Chairman of Srei New Materials; Zhang Zhe, Deputy General Manager and Secretary of the Board of Haitian Ruisheng; Wang Bing, Partner and General Manager of Shanghai Headquarters at Dongfang Fuhai; and Liu Yang, Assistant Director of Shenwan Hongyuan Research Institute and Chief Analyst for TMT [1]. - The discussion aimed to build consensus on the collaborative efforts of policy, industry, and capital for high-quality industrial development [1].

Group 1 - The event aims to discuss the policy dividends supporting technological innovation in the capital market, the breakthrough paths for hard technology industries, and development opportunities [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange, in collaboration with Yicai Media, launched the "Value and Investment" initiative to promote rational, value, and long-term investment principles [1] - Hard technology is identified as a core engine for cultivating new productive forces, benefiting from the "14th Five-Year Plan" policy support and capital market institutional innovations, while facing challenges in technology, ecosystem building, and compliance competition [1] Group 2 - The 10th episode of the "Value and Investment" column will be presented in a roundtable format at the "2025 Yicai Capital Annual Conference" [1] - Key participants include executives from Sray New Materials, Haitai Ruisheng, and partners from Dongfang Fuhai and Shenwan Hongyuan Securities [1] - The event aims to build consensus on policy, industry, and capital collaboration for high-quality industrial development [1]

中信证券研报指出，2025年以来A股市场走出持续3年的"哑铃"格局，科创、创业板为代表的硬科技板 块成长性回升是其基本面基础。经过6至10月的系统性估值修复后，10月以来行业间走势分化加剧，而 截止Q3的业绩持续增长是大部分行业10月后表现韧性的基础。目前看，双创与科技板块预期盈利高于 当前实现水平，建议关注2026年的业绩兑现情况；与近似PB的行业相比，国防军工盈利水平仍有提升 空间；食品饮料与家电行业盈利性的差距逐渐缩小，但长期看或存在估值趋近的过程；大盘指数内新旧 经济增长动能切换的态势显著，总体盈利和价格波动的稳定是其配置价值的基础。2026年1月是2025年 年报业绩预告观测时间窗口，建议关注相关行业的业绩兑现情况。 ...

Market Correction Reasons - The recent correction in the Hong Kong stock market is attributed to three main factors: weak domestic demand reflected in consumption, investment, and real estate growth; the offshore nature of the market which makes it sensitive to overseas policies, liquidity, and geopolitical issues; and liquidity concerns due to a strong US dollar index, reduced overseas funding, and better performance in other markets, which have diverted funds away from Hong Kong stocks [2][3][5]. Long-term Investment Logic - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term investment logic for the Hong Kong technology sector remains intact, with the market potentially entering a left-side layout opportunity. Key points include: - The market behavior suggests that indices or sectors that have declined significantly have a higher probability of future increases [8]. - The long-term momentum of indices like the Hang Seng Technology and Hang Seng Index remains upward, indicating that the current short-term correction is expected and provides a good entry opportunity from an institutional allocation perspective [8]. - AI is identified as the core theme driving the market, with significant contributions from domestic AI companies, supported by policies like the "14th Five-Year Plan," which may lead to a new wave of technological trends [8][9]. - The influence of southbound funds on the Hong Kong market is significant, with expectations of continued inflows next year, and potential resonance with returning overseas funds if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates more than expected [10]. - The overall valuation of the Hong Kong market is low compared to its historical levels and other major global markets, providing a higher margin of safety [11]. Comparison of Technology Indices - Utilizing index-based tools is crucial for investors to seize opportunities in the Hong Kong market. The comparison of three major technology indices reveals: - The Hang Seng Technology Index covers various technology sectors, while the Hang Seng Internet Index focuses on pure internet platform companies. The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index encompasses internet, hard technology, and biomedicine, offering unique advantages under the Stock Connect mechanism with a higher individual stock weight limit of 15% compared to 8% for the Hang Seng Technology Index, leading to a more balanced distribution [12][13]. - Historically, the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index has demonstrated stronger growth potential [13]. - In conclusion, the long-term investment value of the Hong Kong technology sector is prominent, and the recent short-term correction presents a configuration opportunity for investors to capture the investment potential of core assets in the AI era [13].

特别鸣谢首席战略合作伙伴梅赛德斯-奔驰V级MPV对本届年会的鼎力支持。奔驰V级MPV，与您笃定同行，共启天地新境。 全球经济格局深度调整，科技竞争日趋激烈，发展硬科技、培育新质生产力，已成为国家与区域抢占未来制高点的核心战略。在这场关乎未 来的竞赛中，中国资本展现出非凡的"驭势"智慧，更在人工智能、新能源等硬科技浪潮中主动"立新"，重塑增长轨迹。 在此关键时点，"2025财联社第八届投资年会暨科大硅谷硬科技投资生态大会"应势而来。 本届大会由上海报业集团指导，财联社主办，并 汇聚多方顶尖力量：科大硅谷服务平台（安徽）有限公司、科创板日报、中国科学技术大学科技商学院联合协办；合肥市投资基金协会、中 创加速鼎力协办；长三角资本市场服务基地、蜂网、星矿亦作为支持单位共同参与。 大会定于2025年12月28日至29日，在安徽合肥中安 创谷全球路演中心隆重举行。 在以上背景下，本届大会将致力于打造一场融汇宏观智慧、产业实战与资本力量的高规格思想盛宴。在主旨发言环节，中国首席经济学家论 坛理事长连平，德邦证券程强、川财证券陈雳、华安证券尹沿技等一线首席经济学家、券商研究所所长齐聚，将从宏观战略与产业政策层面 进行深度解读 ...

Group 1 - The core message of the Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes a proactive and forward-looking macro policy framework to foster a positive economic environment for the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The conference outlines a three-dimensional policy framework of "income increase - deregulation - quality enhancement" aimed at boosting consumption and addressing core issues related to consumer capacity and willingness [2][3] - The focus on enhancing domestic demand is deemed necessary in light of potential external demand weaknesses, with a commitment to implement special actions to stimulate consumption [2][3] Group 2 - The emphasis on hard technology innovation is identified as a key link connecting consumption upgrades, effective investment, and combating "involution," making it a priority for foreign investment in the Chinese market [4] - The support for hard technology is expected to increase, providing foreign investors with strong, long-term investment opportunities as the "14th Five-Year Plan" approaches [5] - The conference's focus on innovation-driven growth aligns with the goal of "self-reliance and strength in technology," highlighting the importance of technological innovation in enhancing national competitiveness [6]

Group 1 - The concept of "new quality productivity" is defined as an advanced productivity driven by technological breakthroughs, innovative allocation of production factors, and deep industrial transformation, aiming to enhance total factor productivity through qualitative changes in labor, materials, and objects [2] - The cultivation and growth of new quality productivity require a financial system to provide systematic support, emphasizing the need for precise matching and efficient allocation of financial resources at every stage [2] Group 2 - Financial institutions should transition from being mere fund providers to becoming value co-creation ecosystem builders, deeply engaging in the incubation and integration of industrial innovation chains [3][4] - The traditional financial model focuses on collateral assessment and financial metrics, while the new model for empowering new quality productivity necessitates a proactive value judgment based on technological evolution and industrial transformation trends [4] Group 3 - The structural mismatch between traditional financial risk aversion and the characteristics of technology companies, which often have high R&D and low fixed assets, leads to difficulties in financing [5] - An example is provided of an AI chip design startup with 12 core patents and annual revenue of 120 million yuan, which was denied a loan due to lack of tangible assets, ultimately securing funding through a financial asset investment company [5] Group 4 - The challenges faced by the financial system include a mismatch between the financial structure and the evolving needs of the real economy, particularly in supporting technological innovation and industrial upgrades [9] - Reforms should focus on enhancing the efficiency of financial resource allocation, optimizing credit structures, and promoting the development of multi-tiered capital markets to better meet the financing needs of specialized and innovative enterprises [10] Group 5 - Local governments have expanded government investment funds to support innovation, but there is a need to balance the safety of fiscal funds with investment risks [11] - Recommendations include defining the functions of government investment funds, adopting a market-oriented approach, and enhancing post-investment management to improve efficiency and reduce risks [11]

面对摩尔线程上市首日的爆炒现象，投资者应保持理性和冷静。在做投资决策时，不能仅仅被短期的股 价上涨所迷惑，而要深入了解公司的基本面，包括其技术实力、市场前景、财务状况等。投资者既要做 到对摩尔线程未来发展充满信心，又要警惕股价短期震荡的风险。同时，创投资金等重要股东应树立长 期价值投资的理念，不能只看重股价的短期投资收益，避免急功近利。 摩尔线程上市首日的爆炒现象既反映了市场对硬科技公司的认可与期待，也存在短期投机行为可能带来 的潜在风险。对于优秀的公司市场有溢价预期很正常，但从中长期来看，市场给出的投资溢价需要维持 在一定的合理水平，如果太高同样会有调整的需求。 北京商报评论员 周科竞 但是，摩尔线程股价的快速飙升，在吸引大量资金涌入的同时，也可能引发包括创投资金在内的短线、 投机资金提前离场。诸如，创投资金通常具有明确的投资周期和收益目标，当股价在短期内达到或超过 其预期收益时，具备减持条件后的部分创投资金可能会选择提前获利了结。类似资金的集中离场，不仅 会导致股价的剧烈波动，增加市场的不确定性，还可能对科技公司的长期资金支持产生负面情绪影响。 科技公司的研发过程往往需要大量的资金投入，且周期较长、风险较 ...

来源：浙商证券 配置方面，基于"冗余时刻区间震荡，设定目标守株待兔"的判断：择时方面，建议持仓等待，切勿追涨 杀跌、垫高自身成本，同时根据不同宽基指数的"左脚"分类设定目标（例如上证指数9 月4 日低点或前 期跳空缺口，恒生科技指数近期低点或年线），伺机出击、分批介入。行业配置和个股方面，建议关注 明显滞涨且份额扩张的券商板块，短期可以关注走势顺畅且历史上在12 月胜率较高的家电，留意医 药、消费、AI 应用板块中相对低位的标的，同时关注年线上方的低位滞涨个股。 风险提示 国内经济修复不及预期；全球地缘政治存在不确定性。 责任编辑：郭栩彤 来源：浙商证券 本周市场继续反弹，但双向波动有所增大。展望后市，考虑到今年三季度市场涨幅较大、强势标的多数 还在冲高回落后的修复过程中，加之近期未出现引领大盘上涨的宏大叙事和领涨行业，因此我们预计后 市大概率维持区间震荡格局。配置方面，基于"冗余时刻区间震荡，设定目标守株待兔"的判断：择时方 面，建议持仓等待，切勿追涨杀跌、垫高自身成本，同时根据不同宽基指数的"左脚"分类设定目标（例 如上证指数9 月4 日低点或前期跳空缺口，恒生科技指数近期低点或年线），伺机出击、分批介入 ...