Group 1: Steel Industry - In July, the PMI for new export orders was reported at 47.10% [4] - The BCI for small and medium enterprises financing environment index in July 2025 was 46.09, a month-on-month decrease of 6.16% [4] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in June 2025 was -3.7 percentage points, with a month-on-month increase of 1.9 percentage points [4] Group 2: Non-ferrous Metals - In July, the operating rate of cable enterprises reached a six-year low compared to the same period last year [4] - The copper price is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to lower domestic cable operating rates and a decrease in air conditioning production from August to October [4] - However, tight supply from mines and scrap copper, along with a rebound in demand for power grids and air conditioning in Q4, may lead to an increase in copper prices [4] Group 3: Renewable Energy and Environmental Protection - The political bureau meeting emphasized the importance of promoting a unified national market and optimizing market competition [4] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to continue, impacting the stock prices of photovoltaic-related companies [4] - Key areas to watch include price-sensitive segments such as silicon materials, glass, and BC batteries [4] Group 4: Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology - The public health emergency response level III was activated in Foshan due to the outbreak of Chikungunya fever, with over 6,000 confirmed cases reported by July 31 [5] Group 5: Company-Specific Developments - New An Co., Ltd. has established a new subsidiary focused on synthetic materials, indicating a strengthened global development strategy [6] - China Shenhua announced plans to acquire assets from the State Energy Group, including coal and related energy assets [6] - TAL Education Group reported a revenue of $575 million for FY26Q1, a year-on-year increase of 38.8%, with net profit significantly exceeding expectations [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View On Monday, the RB2510 contract rebounded after hitting a low. The central bank plans to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, reducing the reserve - requirement ratio and using various monetary policy tools flexibly to maintain ample liquidity. The weekly output of rebar decreased slightly this period, with a low capacity utilization rate of 46.27%. Terminal demand was weak, apparent demand declined, and inventory increased. The market may fluctuate widely in a range, and technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows DIFF and DEA running below the 0 axis. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - RB main contract closing price: 3,204.00 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; RB main contract position: 1,742,635 lots, down 18,068 lots; RB contract top 20 net position: - 97,529 lots, down 12,574 lots; RB10 - 1 contract spread: - 67 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; RB SHFE warehouse receipt: 82,640 tons, down 2,394 tons; HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread: 213 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,370.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (actual weight): 3,456 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Guangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,400.00 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Tianjin HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,280.00 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; RB main contract basis: 166.00 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spot spread: 100.00 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 768.00 yuan/wet ton, down 2 yuan; Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,365.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hebei Q235 billet: 3,050.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; 45 - port iron ore inventory: 136.579 million tons, down 1.3248 million tons; Sample coke - plant coke inventory: 462,800 tons, down 35,200 tons; Sample steel - mill coke inventory: 6.2678 million tons, down 132,200 tons; Tangshan billet inventory: 1.1102 million tons, up 41,000 tons; 247 steel - mill blast furnace operating rate: 83.48%, unchanged; 247 steel - mill blast furnace capacity utilization: 90.22%, down 0.56% [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Sample steel - mill rebar output: 2.1106 million tons, down 9,000 tons; Sample steel - mill rebar capacity utilization: 46.27%, down 0.20%; Sample steel - mill rebar inventory: 1.6215 million tons, down 35,200 tons; 35 - city rebar social inventory: 3.8414 million tons, up 111,700 tons; Independent electric - arc furnace steel - mill operating rate: 69.79%, up 1.04%; Domestic crude steel output: 83.18 million tons, down 3.36 million tons; Chinese rebar monthly output: 1.688 million tons, up 30,000 tons; Net steel export volume: 921,000 tons, down 89,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - National Real Estate Climate Index: 93.60, down 0.11; Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment: 2.80%, down 0.90%; Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment: - 11.20%, down 0.50%; Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment: 4.60%, down 1.00%; Cumulative floor area under construction: 6.33321 billion square meters, down 83.02 million square meters; Cumulative new construction area: 303.64 million square meters, down 71.81 million square meters; Commercial housing unsold area: 408.21 million square meters, up 4.43 million square meters [2]. 4. Industry News - US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said that the new round of tariffs imposed by US President Trump on multiple countries last week is "basically finalized" and will not be adjusted in current negotiations. - The US added 73,000 non - farm jobs in July, lower than the estimated 104,000 and the previous value of 147,000, the lowest in 9 months. After the release of the non - farm data, President Trump criticized Powell again and called for an interest - rate cut [2].

2025年前六个月土耳其对非洲出口的行业分布显示，化工行业以13亿美元位居榜首，其次是谷物、 豆类、油籽及其衍生物（12亿美元）、钢铁（9.424亿美元）、纺织品和原材料（6.755亿美元）和汽车 行业（6.19亿美元）。 自2023年出台"非洲政策 "以来，土耳其加强了在非洲大陆的参与。据土耳其副总统杰夫德特·耶尔 马兹（Cevdet Y?lmaz）称，双边贸易额已从2003年的30亿美元增长到2022年的近410亿美元，而截至 2024年11月中旬，土耳其公司已在非洲完成了1977个基础设施项目，累计价值916亿美元。 （原标题：2025年上半年土耳其对非洲出口额达100亿美元） "Ecofin"网站7月29日报道，自2003年以来，土耳其通过多种渠道加强了对非洲大陆的参与，包括 设立外交使团、签署安全合作协议以及使用宗教和人道主义组织等软实力工具。根据土耳其出口商大会 （TIM）2025年7月26日发布的数据，2025年上半年土耳其对非洲国家的出口额达到约100亿美元。 同一消息人士称，由于两国双边关系的改善，摩洛哥以18亿美元的出口额成为今年1月1日至6月30 日期间土耳其对非洲大陆的第一大出口目的地 ...

2025 年 8 月 1 日 螺纹钢：市场情绪降温，偏弱震荡 热轧卷板：市场情绪降温，偏弱震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | （元/吨） 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2510 | 3,205 | -140 | -4.19 | | 期 货 | HC2510 | 3,390 | -125 | -3.56 | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2510 | 2,730,966 | 1,816,026 | -213,107 | | | HC2510 | 1,070,244 （元/吨） 昨日价格 | 1,433,936 （元/吨） 前日价格 | -139,278 （元/吨） 涨跌 | | | 上海 | 3370 | 3440 | -70 | | | 杭州 螺 ...

甬金股份主营业务为冷轧不锈钢板带的研发、生产和销售，产品广泛应用于家电、建筑装饰、医疗器械 等领域。公司属于钢铁行业，并入选专精特新企业名单。 截至2025年7月31日15时，甬金股份股价报17.85元，较前一交易日下跌1.87%。当日开盘价为18.15元， 最低下探至17.73元，成交额1.20亿元。 消息面上，公司披露截至2025年7月18日股东户数为2.17万户，较7月10日减少827户，降幅3.68%。沪股 通持股数量为1248.42万股，占流通股本的3.41%。 资金方面，7月31日主力资金净流出229万元。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" policy has boosted prices, but supply and demand performance is counterintuitive [2][7][67] - The manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.3%, exceeding the average decline since 2017 [2][67] - The increase in commodity prices is reflected in the raw material purchase price index (+3.1 percentage points to 51.5%) and the factory price index (+2.1 percentage points to 48.3%) [2][67] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI has marginally declined, with production and new order indices both decreasing [4][70] - The production index fell by 0.5 percentage points to 50.5%, while the new order index dropped by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4% [4][70] - The new export order index decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 47.1%, indicating a slowdown in market demand [4][70][35] Key Industries - High-energy-consuming industries are showing production strength despite price increases, with the steel industry PMI rising by 4.6 percentage points to return to the expansion zone [3][18][69] - The equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries saw PMIs decline by 1.1 and 0.9 percentage points to 50.3% and 49.5%, respectively [3][18][69] - Investment demand weakened significantly, contrasting with the strong production performance in high-energy-consuming sectors [21][69] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 50.1%, primarily due to a significant drop in the construction PMI [42][70] - The construction PMI fell by 2.2 percentage points to 50.6%, with the new order index dropping sharply by 2.2 percentage points to 42.7% [5][58][70] - The service sector PMI slightly declined, with the new order index remaining weak at 46.3% [5][46][70] Future Outlook - The political bureau meeting in July emphasized the need for further implementation of the "anti-involution" policy, focusing on the effects in downstream sectors and marginal changes in domestic demand [27][69] - The current situation indicates that the "anti-involution" policy in the upper reaches still requires further advancement, while high-energy-consuming industries are undergoing significant transformations [27][69]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the "anti-involution" trend is driving a super cycle in commodities, particularly benefiting upstream resources and midstream materials, with the true focus being on the midstream sector [2][14] - The report suggests that the "anti-involution" phenomenon is a precursor to debt reduction, indicating that future demand-side policies will be crucial following the recent supply-side adjustments [3][15] - The ROIC-WACC metric is identified as a key indicator for measuring "involution," with industries like coking coal and photovoltaic equipment being classified as "true involution" sectors that are poised for growth [4][16] Group 2 - The report recommends a stock portfolio for August 2025, including companies such as Dingjie Zhizhi (computing), Yuandong Biological (pharmaceuticals), and BYD (automotive), among others [6][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring demand-side policy implementation and potential liquidity pressures from overseas markets [5][13] - The report notes that the strong exchange rate is expected to support continued export strength, which may exceed market expectations [5][13]

螺纹钢：板块行情共振，偏强震荡 热轧卷板：板块行情共振，偏强震荡 2025 年 7 月 30 日 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 期货研究 商 品 研 究 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2510 | 3,347 | 65 | 1.98 | | 期 货 | HC2510 | 3,503 | 69 | 2.01 | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2510 | 2,711,612 | 2,175,237 | 239,356 | | | HC2510 | 1,006,596 | 1,612,699 | 131,532 | | | | 昨日价格 （元/吨） | 前日价格 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | | | 上海 | 3430 | 339 ...

2025 年 7 月 29 日 螺纹钢：板块行情共振，偏弱震荡 | | | （元/吨） 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2510 HC2510 | 3,248 3,397 | -68 -80 | -2.05 -2.30 | | 期 货 | | | | | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2510 | 3,414,713 | 1,935,881 | -62,771 | | | HC2510 | 1,255,676 | 1,481,167 | -73,396 | | | | （元/吨） 昨日价格 | （元/吨） 前日价格 | （元/吨） 涨跌 | | | 上海 | 3390 | 3430 | -40 | | | 杭州 螺纹钢 | 3430 | 3490 | -60 | | | 北京 | 3300 | 3360 | -60 | | 现货价格 | 广州 | 3440 | 3490 | -50 | | | 上海 | 3440 | 3500 | -60 | | | ...

废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/07/28 | 日期 | 华东 | 华北 | 中部 | 华南 | 东北 | 西南 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/07/21 | 2209 | 2294 | 2046 | 2236 | 2233 | 2162 | | 2025/07/22 | 2214 | 2298 | 2055 | 2259 | 2253 | 2172 | | 2025/07/23 | 2225 | 2316 | 2069 | 2266 | 2264 | 2181 | | 2025/07/24 | 2225 | 2317 | 2071 | 2263 | 2261 | 2174 | | 2025/07/25 | 2230 | 2318 | 2071 | 2269 | 2269 | 2174 | | 环比 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论 ...