The world's largest brewer said it is confident of continued earnings growth after beer sales volumes fell 1.5%, less than expected. ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the full year 2025, total volumes decreased by 6% and net revenue declined by 6.1% [6][12] - Normalized EBITDA decreased by 9.8%, with a normalized EBITDA margin contraction of 113 basis points [6] - In Q4 2025, total volumes decreased by 0.7%, with revenue and revenue per hectoliter decreasing by 4.2% and 3.5%, respectively [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In APAC West, volumes decreased by 6.7%, with revenue and revenue per hectoliter decreasing by 8.2% and 1.5%, respectively [7] - In China, volumes decreased by 3.9% in Q4, with revenue per hectoliter decreasing by 7.7%, resulting in an 11.4% revenue decline [7] - In India, strong double-digit revenue growth was delivered, with the Premium and Super Premium portfolio representing over two-thirds of total revenue [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In APAC East, volumes decreased by 1.3%, while revenue and revenue per hectoliter increased by 1.3% and 2.5%, respectively [10] - In South Korea, volumes decreased by low single digits, but revenue remained flat due to ongoing revenue management initiatives [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on enhancing in-home go-to-market strategies, enriching its portfolio, and innovating behind mega brands to rebuild momentum and reignite growth [4] - Strategic priorities for 2026 include increasing commercial investments in China to prioritize top-line growth over profitability [31] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the performance in China was below potential, but there are signs of stabilization in the industry [4][15] - The company is optimistic about the upcoming World Cup as a potential boost for industry demand [28] Other Important Information - The company maintained a strong balance sheet with a net cash position above $2.8 billion and recommended a dividend of $750 million for 2025 [12] - The company is actively managing inventory levels, which are lower than the previous year, to ensure a healthy route to market [65] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: What are the latest demand trends in China? - Management indicated that the industry shows signs of stabilization, but on-trade recovery has not yet been significant [15] Question: Will the shareholder reward policy be reviewed with a new CEO? - Management confirmed that the rigorous review process for dividends will remain intact, and it is too early to discuss changes to the policy [20] Question: What will be done differently in 2026 to turn around the business in China? - The focus will be on reigniting growth and rebuilding volume momentum, with significant emphasis on commercial investments [25][31] Question: How is the company managing inventory levels in China? - The company has proactively adjusted inventory levels, which are now lower than the previous year, ensuring a better position going into the Chinese New Year [65] Question: What is the pricing trend in China for 2026? - The company aims to maintain pricing discipline while investing to lead and grow the category, with a favorable brand mix contributing to revenue [72]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In full year 2025, total volumes decreased by 6% and net revenue declined by 6.1% [5][6] - Normalized EBITDA decreased by 9.8% with a margin contraction of 113 basis points [5] - In Q4 2025, total volumes decreased by 0.7%, with revenue declining by 4.2% and revenue per hectoliter down by 3.5% [5][6] - Normalized EBITDA for Q4 decreased by 24.7%, with a margin contraction of 425 basis points [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In APAC West, volumes decreased by 6.7%, with revenue and revenue per hectoliter down by 8.2% and 1.5% respectively [6] - In China, Q4 volumes decreased by 3.9% and revenue per hectoliter decreased by 7.7%, leading to an 11.4% revenue decline [7] - In India, strong double-digit revenue growth was achieved, with the Premium and Super Premium portfolio representing over two-thirds of total revenue [10] - In APAC East, volumes decreased by 1.3%, while revenue and revenue per hectoliter increased by 1.3% and 2.5% respectively [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In South Korea, volumes decreased by low single digits, but revenue remained flat due to ongoing revenue management initiatives [11] - The non-alcoholic beer and flavored beer segments are performing well in South Korea, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [58] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to enhance its in-home go-to-market strategy, enrich its portfolio, and innovate behind its mega brands to reignite growth [4] - Focus on expanding the in-home and O2O channels, with significant investments in marketing campaigns and innovations [8][9] - The company plans to prioritize top-line growth in China, potentially increasing commercial investments at the expense of short-term profitability [31][32] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges that performance in China was below potential, but sees signs of stabilization and initial improvement in Q4 2025 [16][18] - The company is optimistic about the impact of the World Cup on industry demand and plans to leverage this event for brand activation [28] - Management emphasizes the importance of maintaining a strong balance sheet and disciplined financial practices, with a dividend recommendation of $750 million for 2025 [12] Other Important Information - The company continues to invest in its mega brands and has launched several innovative marketing initiatives, including collaborations with popular cultural events [11][12] - The net cash position at the end of 2025 was above $2.8 billion, reflecting a decrease of $39 million from the previous year [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the latest demand trend in China and any updates on Chinese New Year preparations? - Management noted that the industry shows signs of stabilization, but on-trade demand recovery has not been significant yet [16][18] Question: Will the shareholder reward policy be reviewed with the new CEO? - Management confirmed that the rigorous review process for dividends will remain intact, and it is too early to discuss changes to the policy [20] Question: What will be done differently in 2026 to turn around the business in China? - The focus will be on reigniting growth and enhancing execution in key channels, with a strong emphasis on innovations and marketing campaigns [25][26] Question: How will the company manage inventory levels in China? - Management stated that inventory levels are lower than the previous year, and they will continue to manage inventories attentively [65] Question: What is the pricing trend expected in China for 2026? - The company aims to maintain pricing discipline while investing in brand growth, with a favorable brand mix contributing positively to revenue [70][71]

Core Viewpoint - Heineken plans to cut up to 6,000 jobs over the next two years to achieve annual savings of up to €500 million ($596.1 million) as part of its restructuring efforts amid declining revenue and volumes [1][4]. Group Revenue and Volumes - Heineken reported declines in group revenue and beer volumes, with a 1.2% decrease in volumes in 2025, particularly impacted by a 3.4% drop in Europe and a 2.8% decline in the Americas [5][6]. Staff Reductions and Operational Changes - The company aims to implement a "simpler" and "leaner" operating model, which includes transitioning to multi-market operating companies (MMOs) and targeting select brewery closures [2][3]. - A further 3,000 roles will be shifted to Heineken Business Services (HBS) to enhance global capability centers and optimize supply chain networks [3]. Cost Savings and Strategic Goals - Heineken is targeting annual cost savings of €400-500 million as part of its five-year EverGreen 2030 strategy, which includes job cuts at its Amsterdam headquarters [4]. - The company emphasizes the need for disciplined execution of the EverGreen 2030 strategy to accelerate growth through increased productivity and operational changes [5].

Core Insights - Heineken is cutting up to 6,000 jobs, approximately 7% of its global workforce, in response to declining beer volumes and challenging growth conditions [1][4] - Despite a 1.2% decline in beer volumes in 2025, revenue increased by 1.6% to €28.9 billion (around $34 billion), driven by price and product mix [2][3] - The company is shifting its strategy to focus on premium and low or no alcohol products while maintaining margin protection through disciplined pricing [6][7] Financial Performance - Beer volumes fell 1.2% in 2025, with Europe experiencing a 3% to 4% decline and the Americas showing mid single-digit contractions [2] - Net revenue per hectoliter rose by 3.8%, and operating profit grew by 4.4%, with a margin expansion of 41 basis points [3] - Diluted earnings per share reached €4.78, and a dividend of €1.90 per share was proposed, reflecting a 2% increase [3] Strategic Initiatives - Heineken plans to eliminate 5,000 to 6,000 roles over the next two years, affecting breweries, back-office functions, and regional structures [4] - The company aims to achieve annual growth savings of €400 million to €500 million from this restructuring program [4] - For 2026, Heineken projects organic operating profit growth of 2% to 6%, a decrease from the previous guidance of 4% to 8% for 2025 [5] Market Context - The consumer backdrop remains soft, with affordability pressures and selective spending among drinkers, particularly younger consumers who are more health-conscious [6] - Beer is facing competition from a variety of alternatives, including cocktails and canned water, in mature markets [6]

Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payroll employment increased by 130,000 jobs in January, significantly higher than the expected increase of 70,000 jobs, following a downwardly revised increase of 48,000 jobs in December [2][23] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.3 percent in January from 4.4 percent in December, contrary to expectations that it would remain unchanged [2][24] Market Reactions - Major U.S. index futures are indicating a higher open, driven by the positive employment report, which may lead to upward movement in stocks after a mixed performance in the previous session [1][3] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 52.27 points (0.1 percent) to 50,188.13, while the S&P 500 fell by 23.01 points (0.3 percent) to 6,941.81, and the Nasdaq dropped by 136.20 points (0.6 percent) to 23,102.47 [4] Retail Sales - U.S. retail sales were flat in December, unchanged from the previous month, despite expectations for a 0.4 percent increase, indicating a pause in consumer spending after strong sales in October and November [5][6] - Excluding motor vehicle and parts dealers, retail sales remained virtually unchanged in December, with a slight increase of 0.4 percent in November [6] Sector Performance - Housing stocks experienced a significant increase, with the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index rising by 3.4 percent, attributed to a decrease in treasury yields [8] - Utilities and commercial real estate stocks also performed well, with the Dow Jones Utility Average increasing by 1.9 percent and the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index climbing by 1.3 percent [8] - Conversely, brokerage stocks fell sharply, with the NYSE Arca Broker/Dealer Index declining by 2.5 percent [9] Commodity and Currency Markets - Crude oil futures rose by $1.52 to $65.48 per barrel, while gold prices increased by $42.60 to $5,073.60 per ounce [11] - The U.S. dollar traded at 153.59 yen, down from 154.38 yen, and at $1.1865 against the euro, compared to $1.1894 previously [11]

Core Insights - Heineken plans to cut between 5,000 and 6,000 roles over the next two years to enhance efficiency and productivity, targeting operating profit growth of 2% to 6% for the current year [1][2] - The company reported a 2.4% decline in total beer volumes for 2025, while adjusted operating profit increased by 4.4% [2] - The outlook for 2026 is below the usual range but aligns with market expectations and is consistent with peer Carlsberg [3] Workforce and Strategy - The job reductions represent about 7% of the workforce and are part of a broader strategy to achieve annual savings of €400 to €500 million (approximately $476 million to $600 million) [2][4] - The cuts are influenced by advancements in AI and digitization, which are integral to the EverGreen 2030 strategy, with around 3,000 roles transitioning to business services [4] - The EverGreen 2030 strategy emphasizes three core areas: accelerating growth, increasing productivity, and ensuring future readiness [5] Leadership Transition - Outgoing CEO Dolf van den Brink will step down in May after six years, and the company is currently in search of a successor [5]

Core Viewpoint - Heineken plans to cut up to 6,000 jobs globally, nearly 7% of its workforce, due to declining beer demand and challenging market conditions [1][4] Group 1: Job Cuts and Financial Strategy - The job cuts will affect brewing and white-collar roles within Heineken's 87,000-strong workforce [1] - The company aims to strengthen operations and invest in growth through these job reductions, as stated by the head of finance [2] - The cuts will occur in Europe and other markets, including previously announced measures affecting the supply network and regional divisions [2][3] Group 2: Leadership Changes and Market Challenges - The announcement follows the unexpected resignation of CEO Dolf van den Brink, who faced pressure to improve growth and productivity [3] - Heineken's profit growth forecast for 2026 has been lowered, now expected to be between 2% and 6%, compared to a previous forecast of 4-8% for 2025 [4] - The company reported a 1.2% decline in total beer volumes last year, indicating a broader trend of declining beer sales, particularly in Europe and North America [4][5] Group 3: Investor Reaction and Future Leadership - Investors reacted positively to the job cut announcement, leading to a 4% increase in Heineken's share price, reaching a six-month high [5][6] - The new CEO, who will replace van den Brink in May, will face significant challenges as many difficult decisions have already been made [6]

Core Viewpoint - The leadership change at Kuaijishan, a leading Huangjiu producer, aims to leverage the experience of new General Manager Tang Guijiang from the beer industry to address the challenges of regional consumption limitations and to attract younger consumers [2][3] Group 1: Leadership Change - Kuaijishan appointed Tang Guijiang as the new General Manager, replacing Yang Gang, with a three-year term starting from February 9 [3] - Tang Guijiang has extensive marketing experience in the beer industry, having held various senior positions at companies like Budweiser and China Resources Snow Beer [3] Group 2: Industry Challenges - Huangjiu, a traditional liquor with a history of about 2,500 years, faces significant regional consumption limitations, primarily concentrated in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai areas [5] - In the first three quarters of 2025, 83% of Kuaijishan's revenue came from the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai regions [5] Group 3: Strategic Directions - The core strategy for Kuaijishan includes high-end positioning, youth engagement, and national expansion, addressing the traditional challenges of the Huangjiu industry [3][6] - Kuaijishan's marketing expenses have significantly increased, with sales expenses reaching 3.32 billion yuan in 2024, a 60.2% year-on-year increase, and 3.34 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a 54.7% increase [5] Group 4: Market Response - Kuaijishan's attempts to attract younger consumers through collaborations and product innovations have gained some visibility but have not yet resulted in a decisive market breakthrough [6] - The company's revenue growth remains slow, with a less than 20% increase in both revenue and net profit in 2024, and a revenue of 12.12 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a 14.12% year-on-year increase [6] Group 5: Comparative Strategies - Kuaijishan and Guyue Longshan are both exploring ways to leverage beer industry expertise to overcome Huangjiu's challenges, but they are taking different approaches: Kuaijishan focuses on internal management transformation, while Guyue Longshan emphasizes external product innovation and partnerships [7]

Core Viewpoint - Heineken N.V. reported a significant increase in profit for fiscal 2025 despite lower revenues, leading to a rise in share prices and an anticipated growth in operating profit for fiscal 2026. Financial Performance - For fiscal 2025, net profit on an IFRS basis surged 92.7% to 1.89 billion euros, with earnings per share increasing by 94.3% to 3.38 euros [4] - On a beia basis, net profit was 2.66 billion euros, reflecting a 4.9% increase, while earnings per share rose by 3.6% to 4.78 euros [5] - IFRS operating profit decreased by 3.2% year-over-year to 3.41 billion euros, whereas beia operating profit grew by 4.4% to 4.39 billion euros [5] - IFRS revenue fell by 4.7% to 34.26 billion euros, and net revenue dropped by 3.6% to 28.75 billion euros [5] Dividend Announcement - The company proposed a total cash dividend of 1.90 euros per share for fiscal 2025, marking a 2.2% increase from the previous year [4] Job Cuts and Productivity Initiatives - Heineken plans to cut up to 6,000 jobs globally over the next two years to enhance productivity amid challenging market conditions [2][3] - The company aims to achieve annual gross savings of 400 million euros to 500 million euros through these workforce reductions and operational optimizations [3] Market Conditions and Future Outlook - Heineken anticipates an unchanged consumer environment and remains cautious in its expectations for 2026 based on current macroeconomic conditions [2] - The company is accelerating the execution of its EverGreen 2030 strategy to adapt to market challenges [2]