中新网9月15日电 国新办15日就2025年8月份国民经济运行情况举行新闻发布会。会上，国家统计局新 闻发言人、总经济师、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖表示，8月份，国民经济运行总体平稳，高质量 发展扎实推进。 三是外贸外储增加。在世界经济增长乏力、国际贸易不确定因素较多的背景下，我国货物贸易韧性持续 彰显。8月份货物进出口总额同比增长3.5%，出口和进口均连续三个月实现双增长。机电产品出口增长 较快，1-8月份我国机电产品出口额同比增长9.2%。8月末我国外汇储备余额比上月增加299亿美元，总 体呈现稳中有升态势。 四是运行总体稳定。从指标变化看，前8个月主要生产需求指标保持平稳增长，1-8月份，规模以上工业 增加值、服务业生产指数、社会消费品零售总额、货物进出口增速与1-7月份基本相当，经济增 长"稳"没有改变。从就业看，8月份全国城镇调查失业率为5.3%，虽受毕业季因素影响，比上个月略有 上升，但与上年同期持平，其中30-59岁就业主体人群调查失业率与上月和上年同期都是持平，就 业"稳"也没有改变。从价格看，8月份居民消费价格同比下降0.4%，主要受食品价格下拉影响，扣除食 品和能源后的核心CPI同比上涨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The national economy in August showed overall stability and progress, supported by strong leadership and effective macroeconomic policies [1][10]. Group 1: Industrial Production - In August, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.2% year-on-year and 0.37% month-on-month, with mining, manufacturing, and electricity sectors growing by 5.1%, 5.7%, and 2.4% respectively [2]. - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors performed well, with added value growth of 8.1% and 9.3%, exceeding the overall industrial growth by 2.9 and 4.1 percentage points [2]. - The manufacturing purchasing managers' index was at 49.4, a slight increase from the previous month, while the business activity expectation index rose to 53.7 [2]. Group 2: Service Sector - The service production index increased by 5.6% year-on-year in August, with significant growth in information transmission, finance, and leasing services [3]. - The business activity index for the service sector was at 50.5, indicating expansion, while the business activity expectation index rose to 57.0 [3]. - The revenue of large-scale service enterprises grew by 7.4% year-on-year from January to July [3]. Group 3: Market Sales - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan in August, growing by 3.4% year-on-year [4]. - Online retail sales amounted to 99,828 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.6%, and physical goods online retail sales accounted for 25.0% of total retail sales [4]. - The consumption upgrade policy showed positive effects, with significant growth in categories like furniture and home appliances [4]. Group 4: Fixed Asset Investment - From January to August, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 326,111 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5% [5][6]. - Manufacturing investment grew by 5.1%, while real estate development investment saw a decline of 12.9% [5]. - High-tech industries, particularly information services and aerospace manufacturing, experienced substantial investment growth of 34.1% and 28.0% respectively [6]. Group 5: Trade and Employment - In August, the total import and export value reached 38,744 billion yuan, with exports growing by 4.8% and imports by 1.7% [7]. - The average urban survey unemployment rate was 5.2% from January to August, with a slight increase to 5.3% in August [8]. - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.9% year-on-year, indicating a slight inflationary trend [9].

Core Viewpoint - The National Bureau of Statistics will release key economic data for August, focusing on various sectors including agriculture, industry, and services, as well as important indicators like consumption, investment, and employment [3][4]. Economic Data Release - The press conference will provide a report card on China's economic performance for August, including growth figures for agriculture, industry, and services [3]. - Industrial data will highlight the performance of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing, which are crucial for reflecting industrial optimization and new productivity [3]. Consumption and Investment Focus - Expanding domestic demand is a key focus for this year, making consumption data, such as retail sales and service consumption, particularly noteworthy [3]. - The National Bureau of Statistics will also discuss fixed asset investment, manufacturing investment, and private investment growth [3]. Employment and Price Indicators - Indicators like consumer price levels and employment conditions are critical as they relate to economic trends and the financial well-being of citizens [3]. - The current global economic environment presents challenges, including geopolitical risks and domestic constraints on expanding domestic demand [3]. Economic Outlook - Based on data from the first eight months, the National Bureau of Statistics will provide forecasts for the economic trends in the second half of the year [4].

Group 1 - In August, the national industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.2% year-on-year and 0.37% month-on-month [1] - By sector, the mining industry added value grew by 5.1%, manufacturing by 5.7%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water by 2.4% [1] - The equipment manufacturing industry saw an 8.1% year-on-year increase, while high-tech manufacturing grew by 9.3%, outperforming the overall industrial added value by 2.9 and 4.1 percentage points respectively [1] Group 2 - By economic type, state-controlled enterprises' added value increased by 4.7%, joint-stock enterprises by 6.0%, foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises by 2.3%, and private enterprises by 4.6% [1] - In terms of products, the output of 3D printing equipment, new energy vehicles, and industrial robots increased by 40.4%, 22.7%, and 14.4% year-on-year respectively [1] Group 3 - From January to August, the national industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.2% year-on-year [1] - In August, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, while the business activity expectation index rose to 53.7%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points [1] - From January to July, the total profit of national industrial enterprises amounted to 40,204 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the acceleration of industrial transformation and upgrading in China, focusing on high-end, intelligent, and green development [1][6] - The high-tech manufacturing industry saw a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, while the digital product manufacturing industry increased by 9.9% [1] - The contribution of the equipment manufacturing industry to overall industrial growth was 3.4 percentage points, accounting for 35.5% of total industrial output [2] Group 2 - The "Two New" policies have effectively promoted the upgrading of traditional industries, with equipment investment increasing by 17.3% year-on-year [2][3] - The special government bonds for equipment updates reached a scale of 200 billion yuan, supporting various sectors including environmental infrastructure [3] - The consumption upgrade initiative led to over 1.6 trillion yuan in sales from five major categories of consumer goods [3] Group 3 - Digital transformation is enhancing productivity in traditional industries, with steel and apparel sectors seeing significant improvements in efficiency and responsiveness [5] - The number of 5G base stations reached 4.55 million, with 5G mobile phone users exceeding 1.118 billion, indicating strong network support for industrial upgrades [6] - The integration of 5G and industrial internet projects has surpassed 18,500, reflecting deepening applications of digital technology in the economy [7] Group 4 - The government is committed to promoting high-quality industrial upgrades, focusing on technology innovation and the integration of artificial intelligence in key manufacturing sectors [7] - The establishment of a green low-carbon standard system is underway, aiming to enhance the foundation for sustainable development [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's manufacturing industry is expected to achieve significant growth, with an increase in added value projected to reach 8 trillion yuan, maintaining its position as the world's largest manufacturing sector for 15 consecutive years [1] - From 2020 to 2024, the average annual growth rates for China's equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing industries are expected to be 7.9% and 8.7%, respectively [1] - The production of new energy vehicles is projected to exceed 13 million units in 2024, with production and sales maintaining the global lead for 10 consecutive years [1] - China's shipbuilding industry continues to hold a leading position in the international market share [1] - Over the past five years, China has built the largest and most extensive network infrastructure globally, with over 100 million devices connected to key industrial internet platforms [1] - A total of over 230 top-level smart factories and 1,260 5G factories have been established during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with the installation of industrial robots accounting for more than 50% of the global total [1] Group 2 - Since the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," more than 100,000 specialized and innovative small and medium-sized enterprises have been added, bringing the total to over 140,000 [2]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August is 49.4%, showing a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1] - The production index is at 50.8%, up by 0.3 percentage points, signaling accelerated manufacturing production; the new orders index is at 49.5%, increasing by 0.1 percentage points [1] - The prices index has continued to rise, with the main raw materials purchasing price index at 53.3% and the factory price index at 49.1%, increasing by 1.8 and 0.8 percentage points respectively, indicating an overall improvement in market prices [1] Group 2 - Large enterprises' PMI is at 50.8%, indicating an accelerated expansion; medium enterprises' PMI is at 48.9%, showing a decline in sentiment; small enterprises' PMI is at 46.6%, reflecting an improvement in sentiment [1] - Key sectors such as high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing have PMIs of 51.9% and 50.5%, respectively, both showing increases of 1.3 and 0.2 percentage points, while the consumer goods sector PMI is at 49.2%, down by 0.3 percentage points [1] - The production and business activity expectation index is at 53.7%, up by 1.1 percentage points, marking two consecutive months of increase in market expectations [2]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In August, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4%, indicating an improvement in economic conditions compared to July [2][3] - The production index reached 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points from July, marking an acceleration in manufacturing production [2] - The new orders index increased to 49.5%, reflecting a slight recovery in demand [2] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing PMIs were 51.9% and 50.5%, respectively, showing continued strength in these sectors [3] - The prices of major raw materials and factory output prices rose to 53.3% and 49.1%, respectively, indicating an overall improvement in market price levels [2][3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from July, indicating continued expansion [5] - The service sector's business activity index reached 50.5%, the highest point of the year, reflecting a significant recovery [5] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 49.1%, down 1.5 percentage points from July, due to adverse weather conditions [6] Group 3: Market Expectations - The production and business activity expectations index was 53.7%, up 1.1 percentage points from July, suggesting increased confidence among manufacturing firms [4] - The business activity expectations index for the service sector was 57.0%, indicating optimism about future market developments [5]

Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for August is 49.40%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous value[1] - The production index rose by 0.3 percentage points to 50.80%, while the new orders index increased by 0.1 percentage points to 49.50%[1] - The new export orders index recorded 47.20%, up by 0.1 percentage points, and the import index rose to 48.00%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points[1][2] Price Trends - The raw material purchase price index increased by 1.8 percentage points to 53.30%, marking three consecutive months of rise[2] - The factory price index rose by 0.8 percentage points to 49.10%, also showing a three-month upward trend[2] - The price gap between raw material purchases and factory prices increased by 1.00 percentage point to 4.20 percentage points[2] Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing PMI for August is 50.3%, up by 0.2 percentage points, indicating accelerated expansion[2] - The service sector PMI reached 50.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points, with capital market services showing strong growth[2][3] - The construction sector PMI fell to 49.1%, down by 1.5 percentage points, affected by adverse weather conditions[2][3] Investment Recommendations - The economic weak recovery pattern continues, with manufacturing supply PMI above the critical point for four consecutive months[3] - Focus on high-rated short-duration credit bonds while controlling low-rated risks in credit bonds[3] - The bond market is expected to maintain a "bull steep" trend, with long-end bonds offering better value[3]

Economic Indicators - In August 2025, the manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI output indices were 49.4%, 50.3%, and 50.5%, respectively, showing a slight month-on-month increase[15] - The manufacturing production index has remained in the expansion zone for several months, with high-tech manufacturing PMI at 51.9% and equipment manufacturing PMI at 50.5%[1] Demand and Supply - New orders and new export orders indices have slightly increased, indicating a stabilization in domestic and international market demand[2] - The price index has been rising, with major raw material purchase prices and factory prices improving, reflecting the effectiveness of policies aimed at stabilizing market order[2] Industrial Profitability - From January to July 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 40,203.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, but the decline is narrowing[2] - Manufacturing profits grew by 4.8%, with high-tech manufacturing profits increasing by 18.9% in July, indicating strong support from new economic drivers[2] Price Levels - In July, the CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month, while the core CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, marking a continuous recovery in domestic demand[3] - The PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, but the decline is showing signs of narrowing, indicating an improvement in market supply-demand structure[3] Future Outlook - The overall economic outlook remains stable, with new economic drivers such as high-tech manufacturing and consumption upgrades becoming significant growth engines[3] - Despite uncertainties in the external environment, the continuous and stable macroeconomic policies are expected to support economic structure optimization and high-quality development[4]