Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The international sugar market is under supply pressure, with the increasing production pressure in the Northern Hemisphere and the pressure from the beet harvest. The supply side remains bearish, and the demand shows a slowdown, leading to a weak and downward - trending sugar price [5]. - The domestic sugar market is in a downward trend, fluctuating around the 5500 mark. Trading volume is not significantly enlarged, and the basis is relatively strong. At the end of the season, domestic sugar stocks are gradually being cleared, which supports the futures price. Before the National Day, funds are mainly flowing out, and the decline of futures sugar slows down [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. This Week's Market Spot and Spread Data Tracking and Display 1.1 Spot Prices and Basis in Production Areas - Spot prices in production areas such as Guangxi Nanning, Yunnan Kunming, and Yingkou are in a downward - trending and fluctuating state. The basis in these areas is also expected to weaken, with the basis in Nanning, Kunming, and Yingkou showing a decline this week compared to last week [2][4]. 1.2 Inter - month Spreads - The 1 - 5 spread of Zhengzhou sugar is in a short - term weak and fluctuating state, with a slight rebound this week [11]. 1.3 Domestic - Foreign Spreads - The import cost is relatively low. Although the import profit within the quota has shrunk, it is still relatively large [15]. 2. Overview of Key Market Data 2.1 International Market Key Data - **Brazil**: The sugar production in Brazil has entered the peak season, with a high cane - to - sugar ratio. However, attention should be paid to the sugar content in cane and the cane crushing volume. The sugar export in Brazil has slightly slowed down. The production in Thailand and India has not started yet, but the expected increase in production will bring pressure to the market [20][26][29]. 2.2 Domestic Market Key Data - **Production and Consumption**: China's sugar production is expected to increase, and consumption is expected to slightly increase. The production and sales data of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar have turned bearish, with the inventory decreasing but the speed slowing down. The import volume of sugar has increased, and the import volume in August increased month - on - month. The import of syrup/pre - mixed powder in August decreased month - on - month [5][33][36][38][40]. - **Downstream Demand**: The downstream demand is not bad but not outstanding either. Attention should be paid to the seasonal demand in the downstream market, which shows a situation of "peak season not prosperous" during the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day [42][45].

Report Summary - **Report Title**: Sugar Market Weekly Report [2] - **Report Date**: September 26, 2025 [2] - **Researcher**: Wang Cuibing [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose slightly, with a weekly increase of about 0.31%. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased, and export capacity slowed down slightly. Domestically, northern sugar mills have started production on a small scale, and the new - season sugar is expected to increase slightly. Spot prices are stable with a weakening trend. The control of imported syrup from Thailand has been relaxed, and the amount of syrup is expected to increase slightly. The sugar sales progress in Guangxi is slow due to the extrusion of processed sugar. However, typhoon - induced lodging of sugarcane in Guangxi and other places provides short - term support, while sufficient supply suppresses upward movement. It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract in the short term [5][6] Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose slightly this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.31% [5] - **Market Outlook**: As of the week of September 24, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased from 85 to 76, and the quantity of waiting - to - be - shipped sugar decreased from 328.27 million tons to 310.39 million tons. The overnight Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract closed down 0.05%. Domestically, northern sugar mills started production on a small scale, and new - season sugar is expected to increase slightly. Spot prices are stable with a weakening trend. The control of imported syrup from Thailand is relaxed, and the amount of syrup is expected to rise slightly. The slow sugar sales in Guangxi are affected by processed sugar, but there is short - term support due to typhoon - affected sugarcane lodging, and upward movement is suppressed by sufficient supply [5] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract in the short term [6] - **Future Focus Factors**: Domestic sugar production and sales situation, new - season output [7] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **US Sugar Market**: The price of the US Sugar March contract rebounded this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.68%. As of September 16, 2025, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 106,344 lots, a decrease of 33,266 lots from the previous week; long positions were 175,246 lots, an increase of 5,166 lots; short positions were 281,590 lots, a decrease of 28,100 lots [12] - **International Raw Sugar Spot Price**: This week, the international raw sugar spot price was 15.72 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.42 cents per pound from last week [17] - **Zhengzhou Sugar Futures**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose slightly this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.31%. The net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 80,973 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 9,464 [20][26] - **Zhengzhou Sugar Contract Spread**: The spread between the Zhengzhou Sugar 1 - 5 contracts was + 36 yuan/ton, and the basis of spot - Zhengzhou sugar was + 412 yuan/ton [30] - **Spot Market**: As of September 26, the price of Liuzhou sugar in Guangxi was 5,890 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Kunming sugar in Yunnan was 5,810 yuan/ton [37] - **Imported Sugar Cost and Profit**: This week, the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 1,506 yuan/ton, a decrease of 119 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota was 124 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton. The estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota was 1,348 yuan/ton, a decrease of 98 yuan/ton; the estimated profit outside the quota was 178 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton [43] 3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side - Production Increase**: As of the end of August 2025, the total sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons, or 12.03% [46] - **Supply Side - Industrial Inventory**: As of August 2025, the domestic sugar industrial inventory was 1.1623 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 450,000 tons or 27.91%, and a year - on - year increase of 60,100 tons or 5.45% [49] - **Supply Side - Imported Sugar Quantity**: In August 2025, China's sugar imports were 830,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15% and a month - on - month increase of 90,000 tons. From January to August 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 2.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.15% [53] - **Demand Side - Sugar Sales Rate**: As of the end of August 2025, all sugar mills in the 2024/25 sugar - pressing season had stopped production. The total sugar production in this sugar - making season was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons, or 12.03%. The cumulative sugar sales were 9.9998 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1388 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 89.59%, 0.65 percentage points faster than the same period last year [57] - **Demand Side - Finished Sugar and Soft Drink Production**: In August 2025, China's monthly production of finished sugar was 454,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 49.3%. The monthly production of soft drinks was 17.7578 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.5% [61] 4. Options and Stock - Related Markets - **Options Market**: Information on the implied volatility of at - the - money options for sugar this week is provided, but specific numerical data is not given [62] - **Stock Market - Nanning Sugar Industry**: A graph of the price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is presented, but specific analysis is not provided [67]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global sugar production is expected to increase, with the supply surplus in the 2025/26 global sugar market estimated by different institutions. The price of sugar is expected to be volatile and weak. It is recommended to short sugar futures at high prices both in the international and domestic markets, and to hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage and options [5][7][88] Summary by Directory 1. Preface Summary Market Review - In September, the price center of the international sugar market continued to decline, with the oscillation range shifting to 15 - 17 cents per pound. The domestic sugar price also slightly decreased, with the oscillation range moving to 5400 - 5600 yuan. The significant increase in Brazil's bi - weekly sugar production has put pressure on the market, and the domestic market is greatly affected by the international sugar trend due to large - scale sugar imports. However, due to the relatively low price levels, there is resistance to further price drops [4][9] Market Outlook - Internationally, the increase in sugar production in major global producing areas is being realized. Brazil is in the peak supply period, with a large increase in sugar production recently. It is likely that the bi - weekly sugar production will remain high in the near future. However, the ethanol - to - sugar price in Brazil has reached around 16 cents per pound, and the bi - weekly sugar - making ratio has decreased, which is expected to further decline to relieve the pressure of the large increase in sugar production. In the Indian market, sugar production is expected to increase significantly year - on - year, and sugar production in Thailand and China is also likely to increase. - Domestically, a large amount of imported sugar has entered the market recently. The import volume was high in July and August and is expected to remain high in September and October. The import volume of syrup and premixed powder is also expected to be considerable. There is also an expectation of increased domestic sugar production in the new year, so the supply side of domestic white sugar is under great pressure [5][88] Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral trading: As the increase in international sugar production is being realized, it is recommended to short at high prices. The future supply pressure of domestic Zhengzhou sugar is also relatively large, so it is also recommended to short at high prices. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7] 2. Fundamental Situation Market Review - Similar to the preface summary, in September, the price center of the international and domestic sugar markets declined. The significant increase in Brazil's sugar production has put pressure on the market, but the relatively low price levels provide some resistance to further price drops [4][9] International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes - In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the market generally has an optimistic expectation for sugar production. Brazil's sugar production is expected to remain at a high level, with a significant increase in recent bi - weekly sugar production. In the Northern Hemisphere, the rainfall for sugar production is good. India is expected to have a restorative increase in production, with a large year - on - year increase. Thailand's new - season production is expected to increase slightly, and China's sugar production is also expected to increase slightly. - Different institutions have different estimates of the global sugar supply - demand pattern in the 2025/26 season. StoneX estimates a supply surplus of 2.77 million tons, with an estimated global sugar production of 197.5 million tons and consumption of 194.7 million tons. ISO estimates a supply - demand gap of 230,000 tons, with a global sugar production of 180.59 million tons and consumption of 180.82 million tons. Czarnikow estimates a surplus of 6.2 million tons, with a global sugar production of 184.6 million tons and consumption of 178.4 million tons [12][16] Brazil's Bi - Weekly Sugar Production Soars, and the Increase Expectation is Being Realized - The sugar production expectation for Brazil's 25/26 sugar - crushing season is high, with the market expecting the production at the end of 25/26 to be between 44 million and 45 million tons, which is at a high level in recent years. Currently, it is the peak processing period in Brazil, and the final production is likely to be close to the expectation. Although the export expectation is slightly lower year - on - year, the export volume in recent months has been high, and the annual export volume is expected to be considerable. Brazil's sugar is in the inventory - building stage, but the current inventory is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [19] - According to Unica data, in the second half of August, the cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 50.061 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.68%. The sugar production was 3.872 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.21%. From the beginning of the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season to the second half of August, the cumulative cane crushing volume decreased by 4.78% year - on - year, and the cumulative sugar production decreased by 1.92% year - on - year [20][21] - Brazil's National Crop Supply Company (Conab) has lowered the sugar production forecast for the 2025/26 season to 44.5 million tons due to bad weather affecting cane planting, a 3.1% reduction from the April forecast. However, Brazil's sugar production is still expected to increase by 0.8% compared to the previous season [22] - In terms of exports, Brazil is in the seasonal peak export period. The export volume in August was 3.744 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.63%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative export volume was 20.2357 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.77%. In the first three weeks of September, the export volume was 2.4079 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.12%. As of September 17, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 85, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 3.2827 million tons, a 3.1% increase from the previous week [23] New Sugar - Crushing Season: Optimistic Production Expectation, and India's Ethanol Policy is Key - **India**: In the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the estimated sugar production is about 26.1 million tons. The sales quota in September was 2.35 million tons, the same as the previous year. The cumulative sales volume from October 2024 to September 2025 was 27.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6 million tons. The cumulative net export volume as of June was 831,500 tons, which is very small compared to previous years. The approved export quota for the 24/25 season was 1 million tons. - In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the weather in the main cane - producing areas is suitable, with sufficient rainfall, and the production is expected to increase restoratively. The market expects the production to be around 35 million tons. The Indian government plans to allow 4 - 5 million tons of sugar to be converted into ethanol production in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season starting in October. If 4 million tons are diverted for ethanol production, the actual sugar production is expected to be around 31 million tons, an increase of nearly 5 million tons compared to this season. The domestic sugar consumption is expected to be between 28 - 29 million tons. The Indian government has confirmed the start of the sugar export plan in the new sugar - crushing season in October 2025, and there will be sufficient export quota space after meeting domestic consumption and ethanol production needs [40][45] - **Thailand**: In the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar production was 10.04 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 14%. As of June, the cumulative sugar export volume was 3.927 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.3%. However, compared to previous years, the cumulative export volume is still at a low level. It is expected that the export volume will be high in the later stage, but there will be challenges such as quality decline and competition with Brazilian sugar exports in the third quarter. In the new sugar - crushing season, the weather is suitable, and the sugar production is expected to remain at a high level [46] Low Industrial Inventory, and Recent Slowdown in Sales - to - Production Ratio Growth - As of September, the inventory in third - party warehouses in Guangxi was about 467,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 300,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of about 196,900 tons, at a medium level in the past five years. In August, the industrial inventory in Guangxi was 708,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 260,000 tons, and in Yunnan, it was 336,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 130,900 tons. - As of August, the cumulative sales - to - production ratio of Guangxi sugar was 89.04%, a 0.62 - percentage - point increase compared to the previous year, and that of Yunnan sugar was 86.09%, a 0.83 - percentage - point decrease compared to the previous year. Both are at relatively high levels in recent years. With the large increase in imported sugar in recent months, the inventory reduction speed has slowed down in August and September. However, due to the low inventory base, the domestic sugar inventory is expected to remain at a low level in September, and the sales and production progress will continue to improve [61] Profitable Import Margin Outside Quotas, and Significant Increase in Import Volume - According to customs data, in August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 62,700 tons. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 2.6121 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.86%. From the start of the 24/25 sugar - crushing season to August, the import volume was 4.0739 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.37%. The import volume from Brazil was 797,500 tons, an increase of 143,100 tons from the previous month and 63,500 tons from the previous year, at the highest level in recent years. - According to Ministry of Commerce data, the arrival volume of out - of - quota raw sugar in August was 489,400 tons, at a high level in the same period of previous years, and the forecast arrival volume in September was 300,000 tons. With the large reduction of domestic sugar inventory and the increase in import profit due to the decline in international sugar prices, the import window has been opened. The sugar import volume increased significantly in July and August, and it is expected to remain at a high level in September and October based on the current domestic - international price difference [71][75] Unexpected Decrease in Import Volume of Syrup and Premixed Powder - In general, August - September is the peak import period for syrup and premixed powder. This year, the import volume has decreased sharply. In August 2025, the total import volume of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 155,700 tons, remaining at a medium level in the same period of the past five years. From January to August 2025, the total import volume was 737,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 713,300 tons, almost halving. From the start of the 24/25 sugar - crushing season to the end of August, the total import volume was 1.3769 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 490,500 tons [84][85] 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - The increase in global sugar production is being realized. Brazil is in the peak supply period, but the decline in the sugar - making ratio is expected to relieve the pressure of the large increase in sugar production. India's sugar production is expected to increase significantly year - on - year, and its ethanol and export policies are crucial. Thailand and China's sugar production is also likely to increase. - Domestically, the supply pressure is large due to the large amount of imported sugar and the expectation of increased domestic production. - Strategy: Unilateral trading - short at high prices; Arbitrage - wait - and - see; Options - wait - and - see [88][90]

Market Review - On Thursday evening, white sugar futures fell by 0.05% to 5494 CNY/ton, while raw sugar rose by 0.99 the previous night [1] Fundamental Summary - The Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) has urged the government to raise the minimum selling price (MSP) for sugar for the 2025-26 crushing season to at least 40.2 INR per kilogram, an increase of approximately 9 INR from the current level [2] - Stonex forecasts a global sugar surplus of 2.77 million tons for the 2025-26 season starting in October, compared to a shortage of 4.67 million tons for the 2024-25 season [2] - According to data from Brazilian shipping agency Williams, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 76 as of the week ending September 24, down from 85 the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting for shipment at ports was 3.1039 million tons, down from 3.2827 million tons the previous week [2] Institutional Views - Dongwu Futures indicates that Brazil is experiencing a supply peak, with a significant increase in sugar production in the second half of August, which continues to pressure sugar prices. The expectation of increased domestic production for the new crushing season remains unchanged, and the import of sugar syrup and premixed powder continues to rise, leading to increasing supply pressure. The traditional demand peak is nearing its end, with general domestic spot transactions, and futures prices are supported by inventory, expected to continue in a range-bound fluctuation [3] - Minmetals Futures notes that due to record high domestic imports in August and a significant year-on-year increase in sugar production in Brazil's central-south region, Zheng sugar has broken down, maintaining a bearish outlook on sugar prices. However, from a technical perspective, a significant increase in positions but a decrease in trading volume and narrowing price declines are unfavorable for further declines, suggesting a wait-and-see approach before the National Day holiday [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Yuegui Co., Ltd. is intensifying its investment in the mining sector by acquiring mining rights for quartzite in Guangdong Province, which aligns with the company's strategic development plan for sustainable growth [2][3] - Yuegui Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary, Jingyuan Mining, won the bidding for mining rights at a price of 222 million yuan, with a resource reserve of 18.163 million cubic meters and an annual production capacity of 2.6 million tons [2] - The company reported that its mining sector is the largest revenue source, contributing 39.59% of total income, with mining, sugar, paper, and chemical businesses generating revenues of 538 million yuan, 292 million yuan, 198 million yuan, and 186 million yuan respectively [3] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, Yuegui Co., Ltd. achieved a revenue of 1.359 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.29%, and a net profit of 234 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 72.99% [4] - The company's net profit has shown consistent growth over seven consecutive quarters, with notable increases in each quarter, including a staggering 163.26 times increase in one quarter [5] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio improved to 33.84% by the end of the first half of 2025, down from 37.61% in the same period of 2024, indicating better financial health [5]

Core Viewpoint - The "Sugar Industry Worry-Free" project supported by Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange aims to stabilize the sugar industry in Guangxi, ensuring farmers' income and reducing risks for sugar enterprises, thereby promoting high-quality economic development in the region [1][2][6]. Group 1: Project Overview - The "Sugar Industry Worry-Free" project is part of the "insurance + futures" model, designed to provide risk protection for sugarcane farmers while encouraging sugar enterprises to manage risks through the futures market [2][3]. - The project connects sugarcane farmers and sugar enterprises using white sugar futures prices, extending the service along the industry chain compared to traditional models [3][5]. - The project is expected to cover thousands of acres of sugarcane fields in Guangxi, benefiting numerous farmers and cooperatives [5]. Group 2: Benefits for Farmers and Enterprises - For farmers, the project provides a safety net against market price fluctuations, ensuring stable planting income and encouraging higher planting enthusiasm [4][5]. - For sugar enterprises, the project stabilizes the raw material supply chain, reduces risk management costs, and enhances corporate social responsibility by supporting rural revitalization [4][5]. - The project allows sugar enterprises to lock in production costs and smooth operating profits through futures market transactions [4][5]. Group 3: Government and Industry Support - The project aligns with the national strategy for rural revitalization and the directives from the government to strengthen the sugar industry in Guangxi [2][6]. - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has continuously improved white sugar futures rules and expanded delivery warehouses in Guangxi to enhance service quality for the local sugar industry [2][3]. - The project is seen as a practical implementation of government initiatives to ensure national sugar security and promote farmers' income [6].

Group 1 - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) held three "Options+" training sessions in Kunming, Yunnan, aimed at enhancing the sugar industry's ability to manage risks using options [1] - The training sessions were well-received, with increased interest from sugar companies in utilizing options tools, leading to the development of new hedging models [1][2] - Yunnan is the second-largest sugar production area in China, with a projected sugar output of 2.4188 million tons for the 2024/2025 crushing season, representing a 19.04% year-on-year increase and accounting for 21.67% of the national total [1] Group 2 - Industry representatives noted that the training sessions helped improve understanding of the functions of options, particularly during the critical market cultivation period following the launch of sugar options [2] - The training included discussions on integrating futures and options, which can effectively promote investment and production alignment [2] - The chairman of the Yunnan Sugar Industry Association emphasized the importance of utilizing futures and options tools to support the development of the sugar industry [2] Group 3 - The head of Yunnan Yingmao Sugar Industry Group highlighted the challenges faced in the 2024/2025 crushing season due to various uncertainties in domestic and international markets, as well as macroeconomic factors [3] - The training provided a platform for systematic learning and in-depth communication, helping industry players understand and apply options effectively [3] - The goal of the training is to transform the power of financial derivatives into management and development advantages for industry enterprises [3]

Core Insights - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) is promoting the "Options+" model for sugar to enhance risk management capabilities in the sugar industry through a series of training activities [1][2] - The training sessions aim to educate industry participants about futures and options tools, which have gained increasing attention from sugar enterprises [1][2] - Yunnan province, as China's second-largest sugar production area, is expected to produce 2.4188 million tons of sugar in the 2024/2025 season, marking a 19.04% year-on-year increase [1] Group 1 - The ZCE has organized three "Options+" training sessions in Kunming, Yunnan, targeting industry enterprises, traders, and member units to improve understanding of futures and options [1] - The training has led to innovative uses of options tools among sugar companies, fostering new hedging models and a strong willingness to learn about risk management [1][2] - The training activities are seen as crucial during the market cultivation phase following the launch of sugar options, enhancing recognition of the functions of options among industry participants [1][2] Group 2 - Yunnan Sugar Industry Association's chairman emphasizes the importance of utilizing futures and options tools to promote the development of the sugar industry [2] - The ZCE has supported Yunnan's sugar industry by increasing delivery points and adjusting warehouse layouts based on logistics changes [2] - The scale of sugar futures delivery warehouse receipts in Yunnan reached a record high, with 11,033 receipts recorded in May [2] Group 3 - The head of Yunnan Yingmao Sugar Industry Group highlights the challenges faced in the 2024/2025 season due to market volatility and external factors [3] - The training sessions provide a platform for systematic learning and in-depth communication, helping enterprises understand and utilize options effectively [3] - The goal is to transform the power of financial derivatives into management and development advantages for industry enterprises [3]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 白糖日报 2025 年 9 月 25 日 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： 联系方式： liuqiannan_qh@china stock.com.cn | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减量 | 持仓量 | 增减量 | | SR09 | | 5,470 | -8 | -0.15% | 386 | -280 | 2,436 | 14 | | SR01 | | 5,485 | -12 | -0.22% | 212,995 | -74573 | 431,349 | -7657 | | SR05 | | 5,454 | -10 | -0.18% | 12,335 | -9493 | 64,361 | 388 | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | 白糖 | | 柳州 | 昆明 | 武汉 | 南宁 | 鲅鱼圈 | 日 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The domestic sugar market shows that in August 2025, China's sugar imports increased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year. With the end of Mid - Autumn Festival stocking, the upcoming start of sugar mills in the north, and a slight expected increase in sugar production in the new year, the spot price is expected to weaken steadily. Although the typhoon in the western Guangdong region brought strong winds and heavy rains, its impact on sugarcane is less than last year's typhoon, and the short - term market sentiment may recover. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5485 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the main contract position is 431,349 hands, down 7,657 hands; the number of warehouse receipts is 9,793, down 61; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is - 79,526 hands; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0; the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar (within quota) and Thai sugar (within quota) are not provided; the estimated import price of Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 4,384 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the estimated import price of Thai sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is not provided [2]. 2. Spot Market - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,810 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Nanning is 5,780 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou is 5,890 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugarcane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. 4. Industry Situation - The national cumulative sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, up 5.49 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 999.98 million tons, up 44.98 million tons; the national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, down 81.43 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 89.59%, up 1 percentage point; the monthly sugar import volume is 830,000 tons, up 90,000 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 374.4 million tons, up 15.03 million tons; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar (within quota) is 1,306 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar (within quota) is 1,348 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and Liuzhou sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 124 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 178 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan [2]. 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 45.41 million tons, up 4.41 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1,775.8 million tons, down 20.8 million tons [2]. 6. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.07%, down 0.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 8.07%, down 0.11 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 5.54%, up 0.16 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.34%, up 0.03 percentage points [2]. 7. Industry News - According to data from Brazilian shipping agency Williams, as of the week ending September 24, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 76, down from 85 the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at ports was 3.1039 million tons, down from 3.2827 million tons the previous week. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed almost flat, pressured by the prospect of sufficient supply, closing down 0.02 cents, or 0.10%, at 16.13 cents per pound. Overnight, the sugar 2601 contract closed up 0.60% [2].