叶倩宁 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年8月26日 | 122 | 2.07%! | 47.30% | 硅锰(SM601) | 2898 | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 6020 | 172 | 3310 | 68.10% | 螺纹钢 (RB2510) | 5.48% | HRB40020mm: 上海 | 3138 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | 35.50% | 3430 | 41 | 1.21% | 热卷(HC2510) | 3389 | ਦੇਰੇ | 7.49% | 48.60% | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | 846 | 787 | 铁矿石 (12601) | | | | | | 1624 | 1736 | -112 | -6.44% | 折算价:准一级冶金焦A13, S0.7 ...

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 08 月 25 日 猪肉供过于求局面加剧，猪价继续下跌 [Table_Title2] 农林牧渔行业周报第 26 期 [Table_Summary] 本周观点: 种植产业链：8 月 19 日，农业农村部种植业管理司会同全国农 业技术推广服务中心在广西南宁召开全国秋粮作物中后期重大 病虫害防控现场会，组织主产省份观摩重大病虫害绿色防控作 业现场，邀请行业专家重点讲解水稻和玉米病虫害发生规律及 绿色防控技术，动员安排秋粮作物重大病虫害防控工作。会议 指出，秋粮产量占全年粮食产量的四分之三，要完成今年粮食 产量 1.4 万亿斤左右的目标任务，关键看秋粮。把好秋粮病虫 害防控关，对夺取全年粮食丰收意义重大。当前，受降雨偏多 等不利因素影响，秋粮重大病虫害发生重于上年，监测防控任 务仍较为艰巨。8—9 月份是秋粮产量形成的关键时期，也是病 虫害多发重发期。各地要高度重视，突出重点、分类指导、科 学防控，抓住主要作物、重点区域、重大病虫和关键环节，全 力以赴推进"虫口夺粮"保秋粮丰收行动。在粮食安全背景 下，转基因技术在提升单产方面具有革命性作用，我们判断 ...

2025年8月22日 证券研究报告 | 中观高频景气图谱（2025.8） 上游资源行业景气提振 策略研究 · 策略专题 证券分析师：王开 联系人：陈凯畅 021-60933132 021-60375429 wangkai8@guosen.com.cn chenkaichang@guosen.com.cn S0980521030001 S0980523090002 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 目录 01 中观超额收益追踪 图1：基础化工行业超额收益与燃料油收盘价 图2：基础化工行业超额收益与甲醇期货收盘价 图3：基础化工行业超额收益与聚氯乙烯期货收盘价 图4：基础化工行业超额收益与国产氯化钾批发价 图5：基础化工行业超额收益与尿素批发价 资料来源：万得，国信证券经济研究所整理。 资料来源：万得，国信证券经济研究所整理。 资料来源：万得，国信证券经济研究所整理。 期货收盘 价(连 续):燃料 油:月:平 均值:同 比 期货收盘 价(连 续):甲 醇:月:平 均值:同 比 期货收盘 价(连 续):聚氯 乙 烯 (PVC): 月:平均 值:同比 批发价: 国产氯化 钾:国内: 月:平均 值:同比 批 ...

北安农糖牧肥循环经济全产业链项目是落实新质生产力的标杆工程，作为北安"2+1"主导产业五大产业链的"链 主"项目，它深度融合地方资源与龙头企业优势，强力推动一、二、三产协同发展。塞北糖业项目在其中扮演 着不可替代的核心角色。该项目通过"产业链布局、集群化发展"的设计理念，将有效串联甜菜种植、青储玉米 与牧草配套、肉牛规模化养殖以及食糖、饲料精深加工销售等环节。其深度互补与高效协同效应，将强力驱动 北安市构建"种养加结合、农牧糖协同"的闭合式循环经济模式。 塞北糖业项目的稳步推进与即将释放的产能，不仅夯实了"农糖牧肥"循环产业链的加工转化中枢，更将以显著 的拉动效应，为地方经济高质量发展注入澎湃而可持续的新动能。一个依托资源禀赋、创新驱动、绿色循环的 现代农业产业集群，正在北安加速崛起。（黑河市融媒体中心） 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 据黑河市融媒体中心8月21日消息，作为黑龙江省黑河市北安市农糖牧肥循环经济全产业链项目的核心引擎， 由北安塞北糖业投资建设的年加工60万吨甜菜及精炼糖建设项目正全速推进，全面融入北安市项目"大干快 上"的建设热潮。 该项目位于北安市延安大街北侧、长青水库东岸，总投资5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The "anti-involution" policy is showing initial results, and the determination and difficulty of the policy should not be underestimated. The summer travel consumption has a certain pulling effect on CPI, and future attention should be paid to the potential transmission of employment income. For PPI, the price has declined compared to last month, and the key to future price elasticity still lies in the demand side. The market is in a strong stage with high capital risk appetite, but the sector rotation is fast, and the market of strong sectors is difficult to last. It is recommended to cash in some profits at high prices and look for low-sucking opportunities for IF, IM, and IC [16][17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chemicals - On August 12, 2025, among chemical products, coke had the largest increase with a rise of 90.50 yuan and a growth rate of 5.384%, while 20 - number rubber had the largest decrease with a decline of 25.0 yuan and a decrease rate of -0.198% [3]. Agricultural Products - On August 12, 2025, among agricultural products, cotton had the largest increase with a rise of 220.0 yuan and a growth rate of 1.608%, while rapeseed meal had the largest decrease with a decline of 61.0 yuan and a decrease rate of -2.239% [3]. Macro News - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration solicited public opinions on the implementation regulations of the Value - Added Tax Law. The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Education revised the management measures for funds supporting the development of preschool education. Ant Group and China National Rare Earth Group refuted the rumor of "co - building the world's first rare earth RMB stablecoin." Ningde Times' lithium mine suspension led to a full - board limit up of lithium carbonate futures and a rise in the spot and stock markets. Trump's team expanded the scope of candidates for the Fed Chairman. Mexico set a minimum export price for fresh tomatoes. The refined oil price may be stranded for the fourth time this year. Hangzhou solicited opinions on promoting the development of embodied intelligent robot industry [5][6][7]. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties Agricultural Products - Peanut market prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term but maintain a downward trend. Sugar futures are in a multi - empty intertwined situation, and it is recommended to operate within the 5550 - 5600 yuan range. Corn futures are in a supply - demand weak pattern, and it is recommended to conduct band trading within the 2250 - 2280 yuan range. The national average price of live pigs is weak, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a range. The national egg spot is stable, and it is recommended to reduce speculative short positions and arrange long positions in the far - month contracts. Cotton prices are under pressure and support, and it is recommended to wait and see [9][10][11]. Energy and Chemicals - The domestic urea market price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The caustic soda price in Shandong is expected to be stable, and that in East China is expected to be weakly stable. Coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate strongly. The copper price is adjusting, and the aluminum price is expected to continue high - level adjustment. The alumina price is expected to continue range consolidation. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to fluctuate within a range with a rising center of gravity. The lithium carbonate price has broken through the previous high, and it is recommended to try long positions on dips [10][11][13]. Industrial Metals - On August 11, the average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 electrolytic copper was 79,150 yuan/ton, and the average price of A00 aluminum was 20,630 yuan/ton. The copper price continued to adjust, and the aluminum price was under pressure due to increased supply and weak demand. The average price of alumina was 3,249 yuan/ton, and it was expected to continue range consolidation. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil were expected to fluctuate strongly. The ferrosilicon and ferromanganese were expected to fluctuate within a range with a rising center of gravity [13]. Option Finance - On August 11, the three major A - share indexes rose collectively. The stock index futures increased in positions and volume, and the basis of the current - month contract of IF futures decreased. It is recommended that trend investors pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors buy straddles to bet on increased volatility [15]. Stock Index Analysis - On August 11, the A - share market was strong, but the sector rotation was fast. The market is in a strong stage with high capital risk appetite, and it is recommended to cash in some profits at high prices and look for low - sucking opportunities for IF, IM, and IC [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - Angel Yeast plans to invest 506 million yuan to acquire a 55% stake in Hulunbuir Shengtong Sugar Technology Co., aiming to enhance its sugar segment and downstream business development [1][3] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition involves a total consideration of 506 million yuan for the 55% stake in Shengtong Sugar, which has an estimated total equity value of 919 million yuan, reflecting a valuation increase of 63.8% [3] - Shengtong Sugar has an annual production capacity of 125,000 tons for edible white sugar and 35,000 tons for molasses, which is a by-product [2][3] - The acquisition aligns with Angel Yeast's strategic planning and will allow Shengtong Sugar to be included in the consolidated financial statements, enhancing the company's competitive edge and profitability [3] Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, Shengtong Sugar reported revenues of 602 million yuan and a net profit of 82.67 million yuan [3] - Angel Yeast's financial performance showed growth, with total revenue of 3.794 billion yuan in Q1 2025, an increase of 8.95% year-on-year, and a net profit of 370 million yuan, up 16.02% [5] Group 3: Bond Issuance - Angel Yeast issued 1 billion yuan in technology innovation bonds with a coupon rate of 1.85%, achieving a subscription multiple of 3.45 times, indicating strong market confidence [5] - The proceeds from the bond issuance will be used to replace high-cost bank loans, thereby reducing financing costs and supporting the company's high-quality development [5] Group 4: New Product Development - Angel Yeast is actively promoting yeast protein, produced through microbial fermentation, which addresses nutritional needs and food safety issues [6] - Yeast protein is being applied in various sectors, including health supplements and as a substitute for animal and plant proteins in beverages and dairy products [7]

Core Viewpoint - Angel Yeast (600298.SH) announced plans to acquire a 55% stake in Hohhot Tongtang Technology Co., Ltd. (Shengtong Sugar Industry) for 506 million yuan, aiming to enhance its sugar production capabilities and optimize its industrial structure [1][2]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition involves purchasing 55% of Shengtong Sugar Industry from Zheng Jianchen at a price of 2.30 yuan per share, totaling 506 million yuan [1]. - Shengtong Sugar Industry, established in 2017, focuses on beet sugar production and has an annual production capacity of 125,000 tons of edible sugar and 35,000 tons of molasses [1][2]. - The valuation report indicates that the total equity of Shengtong Sugar Industry is assessed at 919 million yuan, reflecting a 63.8% appreciation [1]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - Post-acquisition, Shengtong Sugar Industry will become a subsidiary of Angel Yeast, contributing to the company's consolidated financial statements and supporting the development of its sugar segment and downstream industries [2]. - The acquisition is expected to enhance Angel Yeast's sustainable profitability and overall competitiveness in the market [2]. Group 3: Performance Commitment - The acquisition agreement includes a performance guarantee, requiring Shengtong Sugar Industry to achieve a combined net profit and unlevered free cash flow of no less than 173 million yuan from 2025 to 2027 [2]. - If performance targets are not met, the commitment party must provide cash compensation; conversely, exceeding targets will result in rewards for Angel Yeast [2].

Core Viewpoint - Angel Yeast is accelerating its upstream expansion by acquiring a 55% stake in Hohhot Shengtong Sugar Technology Co., Ltd. for 506 million yuan, despite a significant drop in the company's profit commitment for 2025 [1][4]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition price of 506 million yuan is based on a valuation of 919 million yuan for Shengtong Sugar, reflecting a 63.80% increase over its net asset value of 561 million yuan [6]. - Shengtong Sugar's projected net profit for 2024 is 82.66 million yuan, but the commitment for 2025 is only 28.96 million yuan, indicating a 65% decline [1][5]. - The acquisition is expected to enhance Angel Yeast's production capacity and optimize its industrial structure, contributing to its long-term profitability and competitiveness [3][4]. Group 2: Strategic Importance - The acquisition aligns with Angel Yeast's strategy of vertical integration within the industry, as Shengtong Sugar is a well-supported entity by local government policies [3]. - Shengtong Sugar has a production capacity of 125,000 tons of edible sugar and 35,000 tons of molasses, which is a key raw material for yeast production [3]. - The expansion of Shengtong Sugar's planting area will further increase its molasses production capacity, benefiting Angel Yeast's operations [3]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Projections - Shengtong Sugar's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 602 million yuan, with a net profit of 82.66 million yuan, while the first quarter of 2025 is expected to generate 173.0 million yuan in revenue and 1.76 million yuan in net profit [4][5]. - The performance commitments for Shengtong Sugar from 2025 to 2027 are set at 28.96 million yuan, 75.86 million yuan, and 98.89 million yuan, respectively, with penalties for underperformance and rewards for exceeding targets [4].

Overall Situation - The Xi'an Huyi District Market Supervision Administration conducted a food safety supervision sampling of 51 batches, with 48 batches passing and 3 batches failing [2][3] - The sampling covered 14 categories of food, including nuts, sugar, convenience foods, vegetable products, frozen drinks, pastries, bean products, grain products, edible oils, alcoholic beverages, and fruit products, all of which passed [2][3] - The main reasons for the failures were pesticide residues and non-compliance with food safety national standards regarding food additives [2][3] Non-compliant Products - The non-compliant products included: 1. Disinfected bowls from a restaurant with a result of 0.019 mg/100 cm² for anionic synthetic detergent, which should not be detected [3] 2. Ginger purchased from a supermarket with a pesticide residue of 0.62 mg/kg for dichlorvos, exceeding the standard of ≤0.02 mg/kg [3] 3. Yam purchased from the same supermarket with a result of 0.462 mg/kg for carbendazim and its manganese salt, exceeding the standard of ≤0.3 mg/kg [3] Compliant Products - All tested batches of various food categories, including nuts, sugar, convenience foods, vegetable products, frozen drinks, pastries, bean products, grain products, edible oils, alcoholic beverages, and fruit products, were compliant [2][3] - Specific compliant products included: - Canola oil from Weinan Chang'an Flower Oil Co., 5L per barrel [5] - Small liquor peanuts from Heze Suiyuan Food Co., 360g per package [5]

Core Insights - The article highlights the advancements in the sugarcane industry in Guangxi, emphasizing the integration of modern technology and mechanization to enhance productivity and efficiency [2][3][4] Industry Overview - Guangxi is recognized as China's primary sugarcane production area, with a planting area exceeding 2 million acres and supporting around 500,000 farmers [2] - The sugarcane planting area for the 2024/2025 season is projected to be 11.35 million acres, reflecting an increase of 110,000 acres year-on-year, with sugar production expected to reach 6.465 million tons, up by 283,600 tons [3] Technological Integration - The use of modern technologies such as IoT, satellite remote sensing, and artificial intelligence is significantly improving operational efficiency in sugarcane production [3] - The introduction of mechanized operations has transformed traditional farming practices, allowing for the spraying of pesticides over hundreds of acres in a fraction of the time previously required [1][2] Economic Impact - The sugar industry in Guangxi plays a crucial role in ensuring national sugar supply security and enhancing the income of sugarcane farmers [2][3] - The comprehensive value of the sugarcane industry in Yunnan has surpassed 10 billion yuan, driven by innovative uses of by-products like bagasse [5] Sustainability and Innovation - The industry is moving towards a circular economy, with a 100% utilization rate of by-products such as bagasse, sugar molasses, and filter mud expected in the 2024/2025 season [6] - New products, such as sugarcane plant water, are being developed to extend the value chain and meet market demands [6] Government Support - The Chinese government is actively promoting the modernization and mechanization of agriculture, with a focus on high-quality development and technological innovation in the sugar industry [4][5]