独立投资公司AMG收购多策略对冲基金Verition少数股权。 ...

市场消息：独立投资公司AMG收购多策略对冲基金Verition少数股权。 ...

远川投资评论 . 看更好的资管内容 四月的烟雨。 作者 I 张婕妤 编辑 I 沈晖 来源 I 远川投资评论 （ID：caituandzd） 四月以来的美股，像极了一个不稳定的新兴市场。 这话的出处，并不是憋屈已久的 A 股股民终于恶语反制，而是来自美国前财政部长萨默斯4 月 9 日晚上发的推特——"过去 2 4 小时的 发展表明，我们可能正走向一场完全由美国政府关税政策引发的严重金融危机……我们正被全球金融市场当作一个有问题的新兴市场 对待。" 以下文章来源于远川投资评论 ，作者张婕妤 从美东时间4月2日特朗普宣布向所有贸易伙伴征收"对等关税"，到七天之后的 4 月 9 日又宣布暂停大部分"对等关税"，再到豁免的语 焉不详、谈判预期的摇摆反复，全球市场在贸易体系的不确定性里出现罕见波动。几个月前还在"美国例外论"里岁月静好的美国资产 更是处在漩涡中心，股债汇全面震荡。 美国媒体把这场动荡称为"Ta riff Cr a s h "，直译是关税熊，但很多简中标题则沿用了上一个任期的顺口溜：一顿分析猛如虎，涨跌还看 特朗普。 尽管在 4 月 9 日之后，短期的硝烟似乎有所消散。在可能出现部分政策纠偏的预期下，一度警 ...

以下文章来源于远川投资评论 ，作者张婕妤 远川投资评论 . 看更好的资管内容 四月的烟雨。 作者 I 张婕妤 编辑 I 沈晖 来源 I 远川投资评论 （ID：caituandzd） 四月以来的美股，像极了一个不稳定的新兴市场。 这话的出处，并不是憋屈已久的 A 股股民终于恶语反制，而是来自美国前财政部长萨默斯4 月 9 日晚上发的推特——"过去 2 4 小时的 发展表明，我们可能正走向一场完全由美国政府关税政策引发的严重金融危机……我们正被全球金融市场当作一个有问题的新兴市场 对待。" 从美东时间4月2日特朗普宣布向所有贸易伙伴征收"对等关税"，到七天之后的 4 月 9 日又宣布暂停大部分"对等关税"，再到豁免的语 焉不详、谈判预期的摇摆反复，全球市场在贸易体系的不确定性里出现罕见波动。几个月前还在"美国例外论"里岁月静好的美国资产 更是处在漩涡中心，股债汇全面震荡。 4 月 7 日晚间，桥水基金创始人瑞·达里奥（Ra y Da li o） 更新了一篇文章，提醒人们不要误以为当前正在发生的一切主要只是关税问 题。 美国媒体把这场动荡称为"Ta riff Cr a s h "，直译是关税熊，但很多简中标题则沿用 ...

在Pamalican Asset Management Ltd.开始交易八个月之后，据知情人士透露，Millennium Management正 在从这只前高盛合伙人Jamie Goodman的对冲基金撤资。Pamalican计划在Millennium退出后向其他投资 者筹集资金。Millennium此前同意为该基金提供5亿美元支持，使其成为去年亚洲最引人注目的对冲基 金初创公司之一。（彭博） ...

四月以来的美股，像极了一个不稳定的新兴市场。 这话的出处，并不是憋屈已久的 A 股股民终于恶语反制，而是来自美国前财政部长萨默斯4 月 9 日晚 上发的推特——"过去 24 小时的发展表明，我们可能正走向一场完全由美国政府关税政策引发的严重 金融危机…… 我们正被全球金融市场当作一个有问题的新兴市场对待。 " 从美东时间4月2日特朗普宣布向所有贸易伙伴征收"对等关税"，到七天之后的 4 月 9 日又宣布暂停大 部分"对等关税"，再到豁免的语焉不详、谈判预期的摇摆反复，全球市场在贸易体系的不确定性里出现 罕见波动。几个月前还在"美国例外论"里岁月静好的美国资产更是处在漩涡中心，股债汇全面震荡。 美国媒体把这场动荡称为"Tariff Crash"，直译是关税熊，但很多简中标题则沿用了上一个任期的顺口 溜：一顿分析猛如虎，涨跌还看特朗普。 尽管在 4 月 9 日之后，短期的硝烟似乎有所消散。在可能出现部分政策纠偏的预期下，一度警告大衰 退的华尔街投行们也试图重新回到常规的分析框架内，对美国以及其他经济体的前景做出新的预测。 值得一提的是，在这场关税大震荡里迎来自己三十周年的世界贸易组织（WTO）却没有任何直接行动。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant sell-off in U.S. Treasuries has disrupted global markets, raising questions about the forces driving this volatility, with a focus on the large-scale unwinding of a leveraged hedge fund strategy known as "basis trading" [1] Group 1: Basis Trading Mechanism - Basis trading is a relative value strategy commonly used by hedge funds, involving buying U.S. Treasuries in the spot market while simultaneously selling equivalent Treasury futures contracts to profit from the price difference [2] - Under normal market conditions, prices of Treasury futures and the underlying bonds should converge at the futures contract expiration, but slight price discrepancies create arbitrage opportunities that rely heavily on leverage for meaningful returns [2] Group 2: Supportive Trading Environment - Basis trading thrived in a low-volatility and stable interest rate environment, prevalent from most of 2022 to early 2023, during which hedge funds significantly increased their exposure to this strategy, estimated to be in the hundreds of billions of dollars [3] - This trading strategy's safety was contingent on stable market conditions, which masked a critical vulnerability: its dependence on the smooth functioning of the repo and futures markets and sensitivity to sudden changes in interest rate expectations [3] Group 3: Unwinding of Trades - Increased volatility in the U.S. Treasury market over recent months, driven by persistent inflation, unexpected economic data, and uncertainty in the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, has destabilized the pricing relationship between spot and futures contracts [4] - The rise in volatility has directly impacted hedge funds engaged in basis trading, leading to increased margin requirements for futures positions, forcing funds to either provide additional collateral or reduce risk exposure [4] Group 4: Market Impact of Unwinding - The forced unwinding of leveraged positions has led to selling pressure on U.S. Treasuries, pushing yields higher and exacerbating broader concerns about inflation and interest rate expectations, creating a feedback loop of rising yields and further volatility [5] - The impact extends beyond the bond market, as hedge funds and other leveraged investors rebalance portfolios to reduce risk exposure, putting pressure on the stock market as well [5] Group 5: Historical Context and Regulatory Concerns - The current situation mirrors the chaos in the U.S. Treasury market in March 2020, when the COVID-19 crisis triggered a wave of selling by leveraged funds, prompting the Federal Reserve to intervene with large-scale asset purchases [6] - Regulatory bodies have since increased scrutiny on non-bank financial institutions, particularly hedge funds, regarding their activities in the U.S. Treasury market, raising concerns about systemic risks associated with high leverage in traditionally safe and liquid asset classes [6] Group 6: Systemic Importance of Basis Trading - Although basis trading is not a new concept, its systemic importance appears to be increasing, highlighting the significance of financial intermediation mechanisms in determining market outcomes alongside fundamental factors [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the alarming increase in leverage among major hedge funds involved in basis trading, raising concerns about potential market instability and the need for Federal Reserve intervention to prevent a crisis similar to past financial collapses [1][7][23]. Group 1: Hedge Fund Leverage and Basis Trading - Major hedge funds, including Millennium, Citadel, and Balyasny, have seen their regulatory leverage nearly double since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, approaching levels seen before the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) [1]. - The leverage used in these trades is reported to be around 20 times, indicating a high-risk environment for these institutions [4]. - A mere 5% loss in these leveraged positions could lead to catastrophic outcomes for the funds involved [7]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - The current market conditions are characterized by a significant sell-off in U.S. Treasuries, with a record increase in yields, attributed to panic selling by hedge funds [12][14]. - The 10-year Treasury yield has surged by 50 basis points in just two days, reflecting the extreme volatility and fear in the market [14][16]. - The liquidity crisis is affecting all markets, leading to stock market declines and a potential dollar shortage due to the unwinding of synthetic dollar shorts [21]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Role and Potential Actions - The Federal Reserve is under pressure to intervene, with discussions around potential measures such as rate cuts or quantitative easing to stabilize the market [18][22]. - There is a growing sentiment that the Fed may need to act soon, especially with significant events like the upcoming 10-year Treasury auction that could test market liquidity [21]. - The paradox exists where increasing liquidity issues could be misinterpreted as inflationary signals, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [21].

【环球时报驻美国特约记者 冯亚仁 陈欣 文远】随着对美国政府滥施关税恐伤及自身的担忧越发强烈，越来越多的美国亿万富豪、企业高管甚至 特朗普的盟友站出来反对相关政策的实施。摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙7日在年度股东信中表示，近期的关税政策可能会推高通货膨胀率，并 导致许多人调升对美国经济陷入衰退的预期。此外，美国政府效率部负责人、企业家马斯克多次含蓄表达对新关税政策的不满。共和党国会议员 还提出议案，要求征税应由国会批准而非总统。美国《华盛顿邮报》称，此类批评声音是贸易战引发的经济动荡可能给特朗普留下持久政治创伤 的早期迹象，标志着特朗普的盟友在他担任总统的头两个半月里"普遍顺从"的局面发生变化。 投资人比尔·阿克曼则将批评矛头对准卢特尼克。阿克曼在社交平台上发帖称，卢特尼克对美国股市和经济崩溃漠不关心，选择这样的人做商务 部长是糟糕的主意。 " 关税就是税负，美国人正付出代价 " 就连特朗普的亿万富豪盟友埃隆·马斯克似乎也对关税不满。7日，他在社交平台上传了一段已故保守派经济学家米尔顿·弗里德曼的视频。在视频 中，弗里德曼详细分析了一支铅笔是如何由全球各地的材料和劳动力制造出来的。美媒普遍认为，这是马斯克在含 ...

对冲基金亿万富豪Michael Platt的BlueCrest上涨20%，得益于特朗普关税引发的波动。 ...