油脂板块震荡收涨 棕榈油或震荡偏强 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连涨61收于4036林吉特/吨，涨幅 1.53%；棕榈油09合约涨244收于8376元/吨，涨幅3%；豆 油09合约涨230收于7934元/吨，涨幅2.99%；菜油09合约 涨285收于9506元/吨，涨幅3.09%；CBOT美豆油主连涨1.38 收于49.7美分/磅，涨幅2.86%；ICE油菜籽活跃合约涨21.4 收于697.4加元/吨，涨幅3.17%。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 棕榈油周报 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term market will fluctuate and adjust. Policy changes are frequent, and risks should be controlled. The reference price ranges for the main contracts are 7500 - 7800 for soybean oil, 7900 - 8200 for palm oil, and 9100 - 9400 for rapeseed oil [40] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil - **Production and Inventory**: High - frequency data shows a 4% increase in Malaysian palm oil production in the first 15 days of April. With more rainfall in the next 1 - 2 weeks in southern Malaysia, April production is expected to reach the 5 - year average. In March, production was 1.39 million tons, up 16.76% month - on - month, and the end - of - March inventory was 1.56 million tons, up 3.52% month - on - month, still at a relatively low level [6][9] - **Export**: According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from April 1 - 15 increased 7.05% month - on - month. India's import profit has improved, and it may increase palm oil purchases, which eases the short - term inventory build - up pressure [11][15] - **Domestic Situation**: As of the end of the 15th week of 2025, domestic palm oil commercial inventory was 348,000 tons, down 9,000 tons from the previous week. Spot prices weakened, with a weekly decline of 170 - 270 yuan, and the basis also decreased slightly [19][23] Soybean Oil - **International Market**: CBOT soybeans and Brazilian soybean premiums show an inverse relationship. Brazilian farmers' active sales and the new soybean harvest in Argentina suppress the increase in premiums, limiting the performance of domestic soybean - related products [28] - **Domestic Situation**: As of the end of the 15th week of 2025, domestic soybean oil port inventory was about 687,000 tons, down 54,000 tons from the previous week. The factory operating rate recovered to nearly 40% but was still low. This week's factory soybean oil sales volume was 278,700 tons, an increase of 62,500 tons week - on - week [31][33] Rapeseed Oil - **Inventory and Sales**: As of the end of the 15th week of 2025, domestic rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 645,000 tons, and coastal inventory was 127,000 tons, basically unchanged from the previous week. Terminal demand was weak, and inventory increased slightly. This week's average transaction price was 9,349 yuan, down 49 yuan from last week [38]

3、据外媒报道，布宜诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所周三表示，未来七天，阿根廷主要农业区 将普遍干燥。干燥条件预计将加快 2024/25 年度的大豆收获。此前大豆收获受阻，因许多田 地土壤水分过剩。 表 1：油脂期货日度数据监测 | | | 油 脂 | 国 | | 日 数 据 追 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 单位 | 令日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆油主力 | 4月24日 | 元/吨 | 7846.00 | 7838.00 | 8.00 | 0.10% | | | DCE棕榈油主力 | 4月24日 | 元/吨 | 8230.00 | 8218.00 | 12.00 | 0.15% | | | CZCE菜籽油主力 | 4月24日 | 元/吨 | 9390.00 | 9396.00 | -6.00 | -0.06% | | | CBOT大豆主力 | 4月23日 | 美分/蒲式耳 | 1051.50 | 1046.25 | 5.25 | 0.50% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 4 ...