4 June 2025 | 4:26PM EDT Macro at a Glance: Latest views and forecasts Download PDF | Download PowerPoint To subscribe to Macro at a Glance, visit the page and click "Follow." Changes to flag this week: n Raised our 2025 LME aluminum price forecast to $2,400/mt (from $2,300/mt) to reflect a less severe-than-expected hit to global activity from the trade war but lowered our 2026 price forecast to $2,230/mt (from $2,540/mt) to reflect likely softer balances further out. Watching n Globally, we expect real GDP ...

Core Insights - The investment strategy focuses on acquiring strong businesses when they are undervalued, emphasizing the importance of quality and price [1] - The portfolio has evolved through various industries, including technology, banking, and emerging markets, with a current emphasis on high-quality businesses and their competitive advantages [1] - The investment philosophy is influenced by notable investors and CEOs, highlighting the significance of learning from successful figures in the industry [1] Investment Strategy - The approach prioritizes large tech companies with extensive user bases and content libraries, recognizing the potential for cross-selling opportunities [1] - Valuation is conducted at the EBIT plus R&D level, reflecting the belief in the potential of certain R&D investments [1] - The investment performance from February 2019 to October 2024 shows an annual return of 11.4% CAGR, which is below the market's 15.18% CAGR, but there is confidence in future outperformance due to expanded knowledge [1] Portfolio Management - The strategy aims to minimize portfolio turnover, with a focus on holding existing companies rather than frequent trading [1] - The investment philosophy rejects traditional "Buy" and "Sell" recommendations, advocating for a "Strong Buy" threshold for exceptional businesses and categorizing others as "Strong Sell" to generate cash for new opportunities [1] - A "Hold" position may be initiated for great businesses if the pricing is not favorable, indicating a flexible approach to market conditions [1]

Company Performance - CrowdStrike Holdings shares are down nearly 7% after reporting a beat on earnings and meeting revenue expectations but providing a weak outlook [4] - Dollar Tree shares are down nearly 1.5% due to warnings that tariffs could impact future earnings [4] - Hewlett Packard Enterprise shares are up by 7.5% in premarket trading despite lowering its top-end sales outlook, indicating a stabilization in its outlook [4] - Wells Fargo shares are indicated higher by 2.5% after the Federal Reserve lifted restrictions on the bank's asset cap following a scandal involving fake customer accounts [4] Economic Indicators - The latest ADP Employment reading showed only 37,000 new jobs added, significantly below the forecast of 111,000, which may jeopardize estimates for the upcoming official employment report [5] - Markets are currently quiet, with investors awaiting the next employment report on Friday [5][6] Trade Policy and Market Sentiment - President Trump has set a deadline for countries to submit their best trade proposals, with the administration planning to review and counter these proposals to settle trade disputes before the next month's deadline [2] - The market is looking for a deal with a major trading partner, as the current trade surplus with the UK was around $11.9 billion in 2024, which may empower companies to forecast growth [3] - Overall market sentiment remains cautious as investors await clarity on trade proposals and potential tariff decisions from Washington [8]

Group 1 - Cambrian has closed a $150 million credit facility with ING Capital LLC to support the expansion of its Water-Energy Purchase Agreement (WEPA) offerings, bringing its total commitment to over $350 million [1][3] - The WEPA platform provides decentralized wastewater treatment, water reuse, and renewable energy services to industrial facilities in North America, addressing the challenges of water supply and aging infrastructure [2] - The partnership with ING is seen as a significant milestone in Cambrian's mission to transform water and energy infrastructure, enabling cost reductions and sustainable solutions for clients [3] Group 2 - Cambrian has previously committed $200 million in equity to the WEPA model in the commercial and industrial water and energy market, indicating strong growth and investment in sustainable practices [3] - ING Capital LLC is recognized for its commitment to sustainable finance and supports companies that lead in sustainable innovation, aligning with Cambrian's goals [3][4]

Company Overview - Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. is one of the largest financial institutions globally, with total assets of approximately $2 trillion as of 2024 [4] - Mizuho Americas operates as a leading Corporate and Investment Bank (CIB), providing a full range of client-driven solutions including strategic advisory, capital markets, corporate banking, and fixed income and equities sales & trading [5] - The company has a workforce of around 65,000 employees worldwide and approximately 4,000 professionals in Mizuho Americas [4][5] Recent Developments - Mizuho Americas announced the hiring of Nick Setyan as Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst for the Restaurant sector [1] - Setyan brings 15 years of experience in the restaurant sector, previously serving as Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at Wedbush Securities [2] - His expertise and relationships within the industry are expected to enhance Mizuho's research capabilities [3]

Core Viewpoint - Tariffs are significantly impacting market dynamics, with recent legal rulings and policy changes influencing investor sentiment and stock performance [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Trends - The U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs exceeded his authority, leading to a market rally [1][2]. - Despite the S&P 500 being nearly flat for the year, European indices have seen substantial gains, with the iShares Core MSCI Europe ETF (IEUR) up over 23% [2]. - Investors are shifting focus to European stocks due to tariff uncertainties, particularly following Trump's pause on further tariffs on the EU [3]. Group 2: Promising European Stocks - nVent Electric plc (NVT) is positioned for growth with a market cap of at least $2 billion, projected EPS growth of nearly 15% over five years, and strong profit margins [4][5][6]. - Aon plc (AON) has strong gross and profit margins, with analysts upgrading the stock to a Buy despite missing EPS and revenue targets, indicating a potential upside of nearly 13% [7][8][9]. - Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY) recently flew over 200 million passengers, with expectations of 30% EPS growth this year and strong technical signals indicating a bullish trend [11][12][13]. - ING Groep N.V. (ING) has a market cap of $65 billion, strong profit margins, and a 5% dividend yield, making it a top international pick for growth [14][15][16].

29 May 2025 Emerging bond dynamic and regime change Toronto The tariff threat to the tariff retreat has now been reduced to a two-day cycle. Donald Trump threatened Europe with a higher 50% tariff last Friday and then on Sunday extended the deadline for Europe to come to an agreement from 1 June to 9 July. This latest twist and turn will have further convinced investors of what many were already assuming, based on GREED & fear's meetings with investors in North America this week. That is, that the 47th Pres ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on India's Equity Strategy Industry Overview - **Industry**: Indian Equity Market - **Key Focus**: Structural growth drivers and investment opportunities in India Core Themes and Arguments 1. **Structural Drivers for Growth**: India is expected to experience sustained economic and corporate earnings growth due to nine structural drivers, positioning it as a leading market globally with a 7% CAGR in USD terms over the past three decades [1][9][10]. 2. **Cautious Near-Term Outlook**: Despite long-term optimism, there is caution regarding near-term market valuations and potential risks from slowing global growth [1][2]. Nine Structural Themes 1. **Rapid Infrastructure Build-Out**: Capacity additions in transportation infrastructure (FY15-30) are projected to exceed those of the past 65 years, creating a 3.25x economic multiplier [5][28][31]. 2. **Productivity Gains**: Enhanced energy efficiency and improved logistics are driving productivity back to levels seen during the 2003-2007 boom [5][41][46]. 3. **Digitization**: Internet users have increased to over 0.9 billion, with a 140x rise in digital transactions over the past eight years, fostering a robust venture capital ecosystem [5][47][48]. 4. **Financialization**: Bank account penetration has risen to over 90%, but access to formal credit remains low (11-13%), indicating significant growth potential for financial services [5][66][67]. 5. **Household Savings Resilience**: Households contribute over 60% to India's gross savings, with improving balance sheets and cooling inflation supporting domestic capital formation [5][76][81]. 6. **Discretionary Consumption Shift**: As per capita income approaches USD 5,000 by 2030, discretionary consumption is expected to rise to 43% of total consumption [5][88][89]. 7. **Formalization of the Economy**: Policies like GST and UPI are expanding the tax base and benefiting organized sector players [5][28]. 8. **Current Account Transition**: Initiatives like PLI schemes and labor reforms could turn India's current account deficit into a surplus by FY30 [5][29]. 9. **Decarbonization Efforts**: India has invested USD 216 billion in capex for decarbonization over the last decade, with an expected additional USD 270 billion from FY25-30 [5][29]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Performance**: India has delivered strong market returns driven by earnings growth rather than valuation expansion, with a notable number of stock compounders [10][11][24]. - **Government Initiatives**: The government is actively opening up monopolies across sectors, which is expected to attract private and foreign capital, enhancing infrastructure capacity [34][36]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The structural themes identified present significant investment opportunities, particularly in sectors benefiting from digitization, financial inclusion, and infrastructure development [2][5][11]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding India's equity strategy, highlighting the structural growth drivers, cautious outlook, and potential investment opportunities within the Indian market.

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, continues to sell more stocks than it buys, increasing its cash reserves to over $347 billion while strategically investing in select stocks like Constellation Brands [1][2]. Stock Transactions - In Q1 2025, Berkshire Hathaway sold eight stocks, including Citibank and Nu Holdings, while purchasing seven stocks, notably increasing its position in Constellation Brands [1][2]. - Constellation Brands has seen a 25% decline over the past three years, which Buffett views as a buying opportunity despite its potential as a value trap for less experienced investors [2]. Investment Philosophy - Buffett's investment strategy is characterized by a contrarian approach, focusing on buying low and selling high, which he has articulated through his famous quote about being fearful when others are greedy [4][5]. - The decision to sell Nu Holdings, a high-growth stock, may be influenced by the current economic conditions in Brazil, including high inflation and increased provisions for losses [7]. Company Analysis - Nu Holdings has significant growth potential, particularly in Brazil, where it has 59% market penetration, and is expanding into Mexico and Colombia [6]. - Constellation Brands, known for its established alcoholic beverage brands, offers stability and a growing dividend yield of 2.2%, which aligns with Buffett's preference for financially strong companies [10][11]. Market Considerations - The current economic uncertainty and market volatility make stable stocks like Constellation Brands more appealing, as they are better positioned to withstand challenging conditions [10]. - Constellation Brands is trading at an attractive valuation with a forward P/E ratio of 13 and a price-to-cash flow ratio of 17, indicating potential long-term upside [11][12].

Financial Performance - Invalda INVL reported equity of EUR 238.1 million at the end of March 2025, representing a 30.9% increase year-over-year, with a per-share value of EUR 19.82, up 30.8% from the previous year [1] - The company achieved an unaudited net profit of EUR 15.9 million in Q1 2025, which is 3.4 times higher than the EUR 4.7 million net profit recorded in the same period last year [1] Asset Management - The asset management group experienced a EUR 3 million loss for clients in Q1 2025 due to global market corrections, yet the total value of client assets under management grew by 27.9% year-over-year, exceeding EUR 1.9 billion [2] - Revenue from asset management activities reached EUR 3.9 million in Q1 2025, marking a 32.8% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [4] Strategic Developments - The successful launch of the INVL Private Equity Fund II was highlighted as a significant achievement, making it the largest fund in the Baltics [3] - The INVL Baltic Sea Growth Fund completed the sale of InMedica Group, demonstrating a successful growth strategy and returning a significant portion of capital to investors [6] Investment Activities - The INVL Renewable Energy Fund I completed an oversubscribed EUR 8 million bond issue in February 2025 [7] - The company is actively seeking investment targets for the INVL Private Equity Fund II, with expectations to finalize at least two acquisitions by the end of 2025 [6] Equity Investments - Invalda INVL's other equity investments contributed EUR 17.7 million to earnings in Q1 2025, positively influenced by strong performances from banks in which the company holds stakes [9] - Maib, Moldova's largest bank, reported a record net profit of EUR 20.1 million in Q1 2025, while Artea Bank earned EUR 17.35 million [10] Additional Insights - The agricultural business group Litagra positively impacted Invalda INVL's results with EUR 1.6 million in Q1 2025, supported by a favorable market environment [11] - The INVL Family Office expanded its client base in the Baltic region and joined an initiative to support the Vilnius Lyceum Alumni Endowment fund [8]